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Flashcards in Behavioral Finance Deck (25):
1

Moving Averages

- buy stock when stock goes above moving average - Fundamentalists argue this approach is wrong - Patterns are not predictable enough - Technicians disagree saying Fundamentalists just dont know how to use them right - only way to see who is "right" is try this method out - effectiveness is different for each person

2

Random Walks and efficient markets

- the theory that stock price and movements are upredictable, so there is no way to know where prices are headed

3

Efficient Market Hypothesis

- Markets have a large number of knowledgable investors who react quickly to new information, causing securities prices to adjust quickly and accurately and since the market follows a random walk there is not way to earn an excess of market returns

4

Weak Form of Eff. Market

- past data on stock prices are of no use in predicting future stock price changes- so technical analysis doesn't work, the technicians of the world are not going to outperform the market

5

Semi Strong From of Eff. Market

- Abnormally large profits cannot be consistently earned using public information - neither techinical or fundamental analysis will help - any price anomalies are quickly found out and the stock market adjusts

6

Strong Form Eff. Market

- there is no information, public or private that will allow you to earn abnormally high profits - insiders can beat the market - following the insiders can help and following buyers is more helpful than following sellers

7

Market Anomalies

- things that might work even if the market is random

8

Calender Effects

- stock returns may be closely tied to the time of year or time of week - January Effect, If January is up, then the year will be up

9

Small Firm Effect

- size of the firm tends to have an impact, small firms do seem to outperform large firms, even when you adjust for risk - small firms are riskier, return can be larger

10

Earnings Announcments

- stock price adjustments may continue afte3r earnings adjustments have been announced - usually or unexpectedly good earnings may signal buying oppurtunity

11

P/E Effect

Low P/E stocks may outperform high P/E stocks, even after adjusting risk

12

Psychology and Investing

- stupid things people do in the market, and how we can benefit

13

Financial Decision Making Assumptions

1. People make rational decisions 2. People are unbiased in predicting the future

14

Percention of Risk

- in a state of constant flux - willingness to accept a risk depends on our mood - some people are willing to accept risk more than others (risk averse)

15

Risk Framing

- how we frame risk affects our attitude - Example. - 75% lean meat, 25% fat, both burgers are the same but wont be percieved the same - wording is important (people see word fat and are alarmed) - 75% fat free is perceived better than 25% fat

16

Overconfidence in Investing

- we tend to be overconfident, example. - most new businesses fail, but new business owners said that they had a 70% of succeeding - Overconfident investors tend to trade too much,take more risks - overconfidence increases as our knowledge increases

17

Fear

- we are most often afraid of the least likely dangers - a market crash makes stocks cheaper but less likely to buy

18

Pride and Regret

- avoiding regret and seeking pride affects our behavior - regret stronger emotion than pride - when you sell a loser there are two losses: financial and pyschological - anticipation of a loss has just as much on the brain as the actual loss - anticipation of a loss may drive us from making riskier investments (investing too safely)

19

Pride and Regret Implications

- we sell winners too early - ride losers too long "Im just going to wait till it goes back up"

20

Considering the Past

-When you win you are more likely to keep playing -Winning makes you more willing to accept risk - Be careful about thinking about past victories - Memory of the past tends to be skewed toward the positive (Overestimating

21

Represntatives and Familiarity

- Company X is a good company- therefore company X is a good investment? not the case sometimes because it might be too expensive to get a good return - People prefer the familiar: - we are drawn to companies that we know and avoid stocks in another region or ones that are not recognizable names (should avoid this behavior)

22

Social Interacting and Investing

- You're success depends on the friends you keep - what do they discuss and in what do they invest? - Our tendency to herd magnifies psychological biases

23

Conclusions and Recommendations

- success in the market involves a certain amount of self control - develop strategies to beat biases: - understand the biases - know why you are investing- have specific goals - diversify - check your stocks once a month  - trade on the same day of each month or develop a plan to restrain your emotions - review your portfolio annually

24

Emotions in Investing

- our feelings can be dangerous - good or bad moods will increase or decrease our willingness to take risks - optimistic people are greater risk takers

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