Flashcards in C - CIA MfAD Deck (18):
Purpose of MfAD
--Purpose of MfAD--
to reflect the degree of uncertainty of the best estimate assumption
Aka : Risk Margin
Difference between the assumption of a calculation and the best estimate assumption
factor applied to PV of best estimate to reflect its uncertainty
It is the deviation of actual from expected experience resulting from
-error in estimation
difference between actual result of a calculation and result using best estimate assumption
2 techniques to derive MfADs.
1) deterministic techniques
2) stochastic techniques
MfADs are not expected to be so high that the probability of an unfavorable development is less than 1% or 5%.
one thing PfAD do not cover and one thing it covers when using stochastic models.
-PfAD do not cover the statistical volatility arising from the model
-PfAD covers the uncertainty in whether the actuary has the right model or the right parameter
a 3rd technique (other than deterministic or stochastic), not discussed in the educational note, but seen as an area of development for PC actuaries, to derive MfADs.
Why is this method still an issue?
Cost of Capital Method.
Not clear which basis to use for the determination of capital (economic capital, regulatory capital, rating agency capital, capital used for pricing)
5 (including c1, c2) desirable characteristics of a risk margin (MfAD).
A) the less knowledge about current estimate and its trend, the higher the MfAD.
B) low freq/high sev risks should have higher MfAD high freq/low sev risks
C) longer contracts should have higher MfAD
C1) due to higher exposure to risk
C2) due to longer settlement period
D) the wider the probability distribution around the risk, the higher the MfAD
E) if emerging experience reduce uncertainty, MfAD should decrease
the more skewed the distribution is, the higher the MfAD
examples where a large MfAD is appropriate (compared to the best estimate assumption)
-if the actuary has low confidence in the best estimate assumption
-an approx with low precision is being used
-the event assumed is farther in the future
-the potential consequence of the event is more severe
-occurrence of the event is more subject to statistical fluctuations
--when stochastic model indicates variability not identified in deterministic approach
3 categories of MfAD.
Provide the low and high margins for each category.
% of claim liabilities (excluding PfADs)
2.5% to 20%
% of amount deducted of reinsurance ceded
0% to 15%
INVESTMENT RETURN RATES
deduction from expected investment return rate per year
0.25% to 2%
features a risk margin (PfAD) methodology should have.
-easy to calculate
-facilitate disclosure of information useful to stakeholders
-provide information useful to users of financial statement
-be consistent :
--for methodology, across lifetime of contract
--between reporting periods
-vary by product
3 general considerations for claim development MfADs (in terms of low and high margin)
significant change in:
(claim management, UW)
DATA ON WHICH THE ESTIMATE IS BASED
(volume of losses, homogeneity)
(length of tail, latent claim, liability exposure)
examples where it would be appropriate to have a margin of 20% for claim development.
-significant changes due to TORT REFORM
-introduction of new LoB
-significant change expected in future claims
-financial crisis and its effect on longer tailed LoBs
9 considerations for MfADs from reinsurance ceded (in terms of low and high margin situation)
-ceded loss ratio
-ceded commission rates
-reinsurer under liquidation
-reinsurer with weak financial condition
-claim coverage disputes with reinsurers
-proportion of related party reinsurance
3 of the several different types of risk addressed in the MfAD for investment return rates
A/L Mismatch risk
Error in estimating payment pattern for future claims
Asset risk (incl. credit/default and liquidity risk)
considerations for MfADs for investment return rates (in terms of low and high margin situations)
-quality of assets
-loss of capital
-claim payment patterns
-determination of interest rates
-concentration by type of investments
Which type of product will a stochastic modelling approach be benefiting the most?
Provide example of such products?
Products with skewed loss distributions with low frequency and high severity
-CAT insurance risk
-Credit, warranty, mortgage insurance
3 quantile approaches to determine MfADs.
MULTIPLES OF STANDARD DEVIATION
A : simple, practical
A : MfAD increase with increasing skewness
-Most common approach applied
-in Australia, margin that would give 75% level of sufficiency to meet insurance liabilities
D : MfAD does not increase with increasing skewness
-average expected value above a percentile
-used by life insurers with CTE(60%) and CTE(80%)
-would be too high for PC insurance.
A : MfAD increase with increasing skewness
A : provide better insight into the tail amounts
Discuss documentation of MfADs
-Actuaries to document critical considerations in their selections of MfADs
-Actuaries conducting stochastic analyses document what components are modeled as random variables as well as primary assumptions
-documentation for both explicit and stochastic techniques would include support for key decisions
Discuss reporting of MfADs
-in the USER's best interest to be aware of the MfADs selected by the actuary.
-Disclosure in a report should balance between too little and too much
-should ask the question: what qualitative and quantitative information best serves the user's understanding and decision making?