Chapter 2: Probability Spaces And Random Variables Flashcards

(69 cards)

1
Q

Sample space

A

Ω

Set containing every possible outcome

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2
Q

Event

A

Collection of possible outcomes

Subset of Ω

Subset of sample space

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3
Q

Definition 2.1.1

F, set of subsets

Sigma field

A

Let F be a set of subsets of Ω. We say F is a sigma-field if:

1) empty and sample space are elements
2) complements are elements
3) unions are elements

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4
Q

P(Ω)

A

The power set F= P( Ω )

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5
Q

Sub-sigma-field

A

g is subset of F

g is a sub-sigma-field of F

Ie a more restrictive set of information than F has

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6
Q

Measurable subset

A

A subset A of Ω is measurable/ a measurable event if A is element of F

Ie A is F-measureable

Ie A is an event

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7
Q

Probability space

A

(Ω, F, P)

Sample space
Sigma field
Probability measure

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8
Q

Empty set

A

Test nothing happens

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9
Q

Examples of sigma fields for chosen experiments

Coin toss

A

H or T

Ω = {H,T}

F= { ∅, {H}, {T} , Ω}

Set of all possible subsets

In order

It’s a test we get nothing ( this has chance 0)
A test we get a Head
A test we get a tail
A test we get a head or tail

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10
Q

Examples of sigma fields for chosen experiments

Coin toss with 2 coins

A

Ω = { HH, HT, TH,TT}

How we F (set of subset) only contains events we are interested in..
Suppose that all we care about is whether we get two heads

So define F as set of subsets we care about

For example if interested in whether both coins are heads we have
F = { ∅, {H,H}, Ω{H,H}, Ω}

Ie complement of HH is Ω\HH “not HH”

And empty and sample space for sigma field

Test nothing (chance0)
Test HH
Test not HH
Test two coins

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11
Q

Probability measure

A

P is a function P:F to [0,1] st

1) P[Ω] =1
2) if A_1, A_2,… in F are pair-wise disjoint

(ie A_i intersection A_j = empty set for all I,j st I not equal to j)

Then
P[ Union from I=1 to infinity ] = sigma from I=1 to Infinity of P[A_i] *

*the probability of the Union is the probability that any one of the events happens

  • uses the probability of A1 Union A_2 that are disjoint is the sum of the individual probabilities
    P[A_1 Union A_2 ] = P[A_1] + P[A_2]
  • this last condition is sigma additivity
    (We have sigma-additivity and * by def 2.1.1 of sigma field)
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12
Q

Probability space

A

Triple ( Ω, F, P)
Ω sample space
Where F is a sigma-field
And P is a probability measure

Examples of F:
* F= {∅, Ω} this is a no information sigma field as we have Ω the event that anything happens (probability 1) and ∅ the event that nothing happens ( always probability 0)

  • we care about one event eg if outcome is in a subset A so we use sigma field:
    F= {∅, A, Ω\A, Ω}

These F are sigma fields- we can check the conditions

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13
Q

Single coin toss probability measure

A

Ω ={H,T}

F= { ∅, {H}, {T}, Ω}

And define P[{H}] | = P [{T}] = 0.5 if it’s a fair coin toss ie probability of a set containing H = probability of the set containing T

And define P(Ω) =1 and P(∅) =0

We want to choose F to be smaller than P(Ω)

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14
Q

Lemma 2.1.5 intersections of sigma fields

A

Let I be any set. For any i in I let F_i be a sigma-field. Then F = intersections of i in I of F_i

Is a σ-field

Ie we contain all the information that is common to all
Proof: conditions

1) F_i is a sigma field so empty set is an element of F_i and so empty set is an element of intersections F_i
2) if A is an element of F = intersections of F_i then A is an element of F_i for each i. Since each F_i is a sigma-field then Ω\A is an element of F_i for each i. Hence Ω\A is an element of the intersections of F_i

3)
If A_j in F for all j then A_j is in F_i for all i and j. Since each F_i is a sigma-field, unión of A_j is an element of F_i for all i. Hence union of A_j is an element of the intersections of F_i

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15
Q

Corollary 2.1.6

Intersections of sigma-fields σ-fields

A

If F_1 and F_2 are sigma-fields then so is F_1 intersection F_2

Simple case of lemma

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16
Q

Def 2.1.7

Events in sigma fields

A

Let E_1, E_2,.. be subsets of Ω.
σ(E_1, E_2,..) is the smallest σ -fields containing E_1, E_2,…

(Any event in any of F_i)

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17
Q

Defined Big curly F

How do we construct a sigma field without writing it down

A

For a given Ω (sample space), finite or countable E_1, E_2,.. subset of Ω (events). ( we are interested in)

Let big_curly_F be the set of all sigma-fields that contain E_1,E_2,..

Enumerate
Big_curly_F ={ F_i: i is in I}

And by applying lemme 2.1.5 obtain a sigma-field F which contains all events we want

(Each of these F_i contains events we want And maybe some others)
This means F is the smallest σ-field that has E_1,E_2,.. as events

(Applying lemma 2.1.5)
(F is contained inside any σ-field F which has those events we want

And
It’s the smallest σ -field which contains all the E_i’s
As it’s the intersection of all that contain and thus big_curly_F is smaller than all of F_i ‘s

By the lemma

Ie it EXISTS

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18
Q

With Ω as any set and A a subset of Ω

A

{ empty set, A, Ω\A, Ω} is σ(A)

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19
Q

If F_1, F_2 ,.. are sigma fields then

A

Write sigma( F_1,F_2,..) for the smallest sigma-algebra wrt which all events are measurable

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20
Q

Properties of events in F

A

If A is an element of F then Ω\A element of F and since Ω =A ∪(Ω\A) we have 1=P[A] + P[Ω\A]
=P(Ω)=P(A ∪ (Ω\A))

If A,B in F and A subset of B then B=A Union (B\A)
Which gives

P[B] = P[B\A] + P[A]
as P[B\A] is bigger than or equal to 0
Implying
P[A] is less than or equal to P[B]

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21
Q

Lemma 2.1.8

A

Let A_1, A_2,.. in F where F is a sigma-field. Then intersection from i=1 to infinity of A_i in F

(Countable)

Proof/ we can write

*in general uncountable unions and intersections of measurable sets need not be measurable but lemma may not hold so that F isn’t too large for a Probability measure as harder to define probabilities the bigger F is

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22
Q

The empty set

A

Is an element of F the sigma-field and is the test that nothing happens

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23
Q

Set of all subsets of Ω

A

The set of all subsets of Ω is a sigma field

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24
Q

what is the smallest sigma field of unions?

A

σ(F_1,F_2,…)

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25
Random variables pre-image
X:Ω to R. For each outcome ω ∈ Ω X(ω) is a property . X^-1 (A) = {ω ∈ Ω : X(ω) ∈ A} is a PRE-IMAGE ( not inverse) of A under X. and used to find set of outcomes ω ∈ Ω mapping to some set A under X. X-1(a,b) for interval (a,b)
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EXAMPLE Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6} and F=P(Ω). ``` Property X(ω)= {0 if ω is odd {1 if ω is even ``` ω ∈ Ω
``` X-1({0}) = {1,3,5} X-1({1}) = {2,4,6} X-1({0,1}) = {1,2,3,4,5,6} ```
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DEF 2.2.1: | Definition of a random variable/measurable function
Let G be a σ-field. A function X:Ω to R is G-measurable if for all subintervals I⊆R we have X-1(I) ∈ G For a probability space (Ω , F,P) we say that X:Ω to R is a RANDOM VARIABLE if X if F-measurable
28
measurable notes:
* X is measurable (using σ-field G) I.e. x∈ mG * P[X∈ A] = P[X-1(A)] (X-1(A) ∈ F) *P[a less than X less than b] = P[X-1(a,b)] = P[ω ∈ Ω ; X(ω) ∈ (a,b) ] *P[X=a]= P[X-1(a)] = P[ω ∈ Ω ; X(ω)=a ]
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EXAMPLE: toss a coin twice
``` Ω= {HH, HT, TH, TT} F= P(Ω) then every funct X:Ω to R is F-measurable ``` G= {∅, {H,H}, {HT,TT, TH}, Ω } (this is info of "did we get 2 heads" with sigma-field that gives this) if we are interested in #tails: X: Ω to R given by X(ω) = #total tails occurred Then X is NOT G-measurable ie if all we knew was whether or not we had HH, we can't work out exact #tails
30
We need to be able to deduce the info from the given info
We can take the preimage of an interval eg [0,1] we can find set is not an element of G ( X-1([0,1]) = {HH,HT,TH} is not an element of G) so X is not G measurable
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information and sigma-fields:
σ-field: G chooses which info we care about X is G-measurable ie X∈mG: X depends only on the information in G / information we care about *** given an outcome ω of our experiment, but not knowing which ω ∈ Ω it was, as each event "G" in G represents a piece of info this info is whether or not ω ∈ G ( ie whether or not event "G" has occurred), If this info allows us to deduce the exact value of X(ω) and if this is the case for any ω ∈ Ω then X is G-measurable
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G and "G"
in notes G is written curly eg similar to g (as is F) | writing G as "G" in flashcards
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σ-field generated by random variables
X is RV A σ-field is σ(X), containing information given by X
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LEMMA 2.2.5 σ(X)
X is σ(X)-measurable σ(X) is a σ-field, containing information given by X
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σ(X)
to construct: include ∅ and Ω look at preimages of X look at complements look at unions
36
remember
operations on random variables produce random variables
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Lemma 2.2.2: If X is a discrete RV: suppose we have (Ω, F, P) and a RV X:Ω to R and we want to check that X is measurable wrt some smaller σ-field
Let G be a σ-field on Ω. Let X:Ω to R and suppose X takes values {x_1,x_2,...} ( a countable set). Then X is measurable wrt G/ X∈ mG ⇔ for all j, {X=x_j} ∈ G
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PROOF lemma 2.2.2: countable set measurable wrt G ⇔ each element in G
..
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example: take Ω={1,2,3,4,5,6}m rolling a dice F= P(Ω) consider G_1 ={∅, {1,3,5}, {2,4,6}, Ω} G_1 ={∅, {1,2,3}, {4,5,6}, Ω}
G_1 ={∅, {1,3,5}, {2,4,6}, Ω} "test is Ω even or odd" G_1 ={∅, {1,2,3}, {4,5,6}, Ω} "test is Ω less than or equal to 3 or bigger than 2" Here, G_1 contains the info of whether roll even or odd etc. We can check both are σ-fields DEFINE X_1(ω) = {0 if ω is odd {1 if ω is even X_2(ω) = {0 if ω is less than or equal to 3 {1 if ω is bigger than 3. X_1 tests if X is even X_2 tests is X is odd we expect that X_1 is measurable wrt G_1 but not wrt G_2 etc * X_1^-1(0) ={1,3,5} * X_1^-1(1) ={2,4,6} both are in G_1 but not in G_2 so X_1 is measurable wrt G_1 but not wrt G_2 ``` similarly * X_2^-1(0) ={1,2,3} * X_2^-1(1) ={4,5,6} both are in G_2 but not in G_1 so X_2 is measurable wrt G_2 but not wrt G_1 ```
40
Example: consider generated σ-field and smallest contained events
G_3 = σ( {1,3}. {2}, {4}, {5}, {6}) has 32 elements but the information given cant tell 1 from 3 X-1(0) = {1,3,5} = { {1}, {1,3}, {3}} ∪ {5} as {1,3} is an element of G_3 and {5} is we also have { {1}, {1,3}, {3}} ∪ {5} is an element of G_3 X-1(1) = {2,4,6} = {2}∪ {4} ∪ {6} each is an elemnt of G_3 and so union is an elemnt of G_3 by def 2.1.7 we thus have X_1 is measurable wrt G_3 and X_2 is also
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σ-field are associated to
σ-field are associated to each function X:Ω to R
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DEF 2.2.4 σ-field generated by X
The σ-field generated by X, denoted σ(X) is σ(X)= σ( X-1(I) : I is a subinterval of R)
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the smallest σ-field that contains events F=P(Ω) Ω=(1,2,3,4,5,6} X(ω) = {1 if ω is odd {2 if ω is even
``` X-1(1) = {1,3,5} X-1(2) = {2,4,6} ``` thus the smallest σ-field that contains events is σ(X) = {∅, {1,3,5}, {2,4,6}, Ω} ie we don't need any more elements as all unions and complements are contained
44
the smallest σ-field that contains events F=P(Ω) Ω=(1,2,3,4,5,6} Y(ω) = {1 if ω=1 {2 if ω=2 {3 if ω=3
``` Y-1(1) = {1} Y-1(2) = {2} Y-1(3) = {3} ``` thus the smallest σ-field that contains events is σ(Y) = {∅, {1}, {2},{3}, {2,3,4,5,6}, {1,3,4,5,6}, {1,2,4,5,6}, {1,3}, {1,2}, {2,3} , {2,4,5,6}, {3,4,5,6}, {1,4,5,6}, {1,2,3},{4,5,6} Ω} taking unions and complements etc to include the 3 events, empty set, sample space and all their complements and unions
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LEMMA 2.2.5: σ(X) measurable
Let X:Ω to R. Then X is σ(X) measurable
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Let X:Ω to R. Then X is σ(X) measurable PROOF:
...
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Define σ(X_1, X_2,...)
σ(X_1, X_2,...) = σ(X_i(I)) : X_i is element of sequence and I is a subinterval of R this is the σ-field containing the info given by X_1, X_2,...
48
2.2.4 gives us: Considering a collection of RVs its better to consider a sub-σ-field G ⊆F Let α∈R and let X, Y, and X_1,_X_2,... be G-measurable functions Ω to R
Then α, αX, X+Y, XY, 1/X are all G-measurable. Further, if X_∞ given by X_∞ (ω) = limit as n tends to infinity of X_n(ω) exists for all ω, then X_∞ is G-measurable
49
EXAMPLE: if X∈mG then
Then (X^2 + X)/ 2 ∈mG Y= e^X then Y ∈mG because Y(ω)= sum from n=0 to infinity X(ω)^n/(n!) we know this limit exists as e^x is defined for all x in the reals consider the partial sums Y_N (ω) = sum from n=0 to N of X(ω)^n /n! ∈mG by (1) and Y(ω) = limit as N to infinity Y_N(ω) exists so Y ∈mG IF X ∈mG and g: R to R is any SENSIBLE FUNCTION then Y=g(X) ∈mG ie all powers, trig functs, e^x limit, polynomial, monotone functions, all piecewise linear functs
50
RECALL FOR INDEPENDENT EVENTS
Events E_1, E_2 are independent if P( E_1 ∩ E_2) = P(E_1) P(E_2) ie change that E_1 and E_2 happens is chance that E_1 * chance that E_2
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2.2.7 INDEPENDENCE | we define independence of events using sigma fields
Sub- σ-fields G_1, G_2 of F are indep if (note notation F is curly F, G is curly G , "G" is G) P("G"_1 ∩ "G"_2) = P("G"_1)P("G"_2) for all "G_1" in G_1 and "G_2" in G_2 Events E_1 and E_2 are independent if σ(E_1) and σ(E_2) are independent Random vars X_1 and X_2 are indep if σ(X_1) and σ(X_2) are independent
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2.3 INFINITE SAMPLE SPACE for probability space (Ω, F, P)
Recall if Ω= {x_1, x_2,...,x_n} is finite. We normally take F=P(Ω). Since F contains every subset of Ω, any σ-field on Ω is a sub-σ-field of F. We have seen how it is possible to construct other σ-fields on Ω too. In this case we can define a probability measure on Ω We can define P by choosing some sequence (a_1, a_2,..,a_n) st a_i ∈ [0,1] and sum from i=1 to n of a_i = 1 and set P({x_i}) = a_i This naturally extends to defining P[A] for any subset A ⊆ Ω, by setting more generally P(A) = sum from i=1 to n of P({x_i}) * (indicator function of x_i ∈ A) If Ω is countable we have Ω = {x_1,x_2,..} can replace n with infinity. Infinite sequence transformed into infinite series which is bounded above by 1.
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EXAMPLE: toss a coin countably many times. Outcome is ω= ω_1ω_2.... = (ω_1, ω_2,...) where each ω_i is in {H,T} the set of ω is uncountable : Ω= {H,T}^N Define X_n(ω) = ω_n = result of the nth toss σ(X_1) σ(X_1, X_2)
``` Define X_n(ω) = ω_n = result of the nth toss X_n: Ω to {H,T} this isn't a subset of R but we can imagine as 0 or 1 etc ``` We want F = σ(X_1, X_2,..) = σ(X^{-1}_i (I): i in N, I is a subinterval of R) contains all info generated by coin tosses NOTE σ(X_1) = ( { ∅, {H****...}, {T****...} , Ω} ie if first toss is H or T followed by anything else σ(X_1) = ( { ∅, {H****...}, {T****...} , Ω} σ(X_1, X_2) = σ( {HH**..}, {TH**...}, {HT**..}, {TT**...}) = {∅, Ω, {HH**...}, {TH**..}, {HT**..}, {TT**...}, {H*..}, {T*...}, {*H*..}, {*T*..}, {HH**.., TT**..}, {HT**.., TH**..}, {HH**..}^c, {TH**...}^c, {HT*..}^c, {TT*..}^c } ie considering first two tosses unions and complements if 2 ω have same 1st and 2nd outcomes they fall into same subset of σ(X_1, X_2) if a RV dep on anything more than 1st or 2nd outcomes will not be σ(X_1, X_2) measurable
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HOW TO DEFINE P?
when using infinite Ω will be given probability measure P and properties
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EXAMPLE HERE GIVEN: P: F to [0,1] 1) X_n are indep RVs 2) P(X_n = H) = P(X_n = T) = 0.5 for all n in N
from this we work with P without being constructed. Don't need to know which subsets of Ω in F as 2.2.6 allows us if we try to take F= P(Ω) there is no probability measure such that 1 and 2 are satisfied
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2.3.2 Ω={H,T} sequence if fair independent coin tosses P(X_i = T) = P(X_2 =H) = 0.5 P(X_1 = ω_1, X_2 = ω_2, X_3 = ω_3,....) P[X_1 =H] P[ eventually throw a head] P[never throw a head ]
P(X_1 = ω_1, X_2 = ω_2, X_3 = ω_3,...) = P(X_1 =ω_1)P(X_2= ω_2)P(X_3 = ω_3)...... = 0.5 *0.5* 0.5 *... = 0 e.g the probability that we never throw a head So P[X_1 =H] = P[ {ω_i} in Ω : ω_1 =H] = 0.5 P[ eventually throw a head] = P[for some n, X_n =H] = 1- P[for all n X_n =T]=1-0=1 event has probability 1 but not equal to whole sample space P[never throw a head ] = P[for all n X_n =T]= 0.5*0.5*...=0
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DEF 2.3.2 | ALMOST SURELY
if the event E has P(E) =1 we say E occurs ALMOST SURELY ie coin will eventually throw a headie Y less than or equal to 1 almost surely IFF P[Y less than or equal to 1] =1
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DEFINE | proportions of heads and tails in the first n tossesX_1,... X_n are q_n ^H and q_n ^T
q_n ^H = (1/n) sum from i=1 to n of (indicator funct of X_i =H) q_n ^T = (1/n) sum from i=1 to n of (indicator funct of X_i =T) q_n ^T + q_n ^H = 1 the random vars indicator of {X_i=H} are iid with E[1_{X_i=H}] =0.5 hence by thm 1.1.1 we have P[q_n ^T tends to 0.5 as n tends to infinity] = 1 by strong law of large # & P[q_n ^H tends to 0.5 as n tends to infinity] = 1 *** event that half tosses H and half are T is event E = {limit as n tends to infinity of q_n ^T = 0.5 and limit as n tends to infinity of q_n ^H = 0.5} occurs almost surely as P[q_n ^H tends to 0.5 , q_n ^T tends to 0.5 ] =1
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EXPECTATION
if X is continuous RV E[X] = integral from -infinity to infinity of [xf_x(alpha).dx] (pdf) if X is discrete RV E[X] = sum of x in R_x of [xP[X=x]] (R_x is range of x)
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WHEN X IS AN F-MEASURABLE FUNCTION FROM Ω to R, RVS MIGHT NOT BE DISCRETE OR CONTINUOUS .
we use Lebesgue integration to define E(X) in this case
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E[X] defined:
E[X} is defined for all X se either: 1) X is bigger than or equal to 0, in which case its possible that E[X] = infinity 2) General X for which E[ |X|] less than infinity * we haven't got E[X] = - infinity * we use the modulus to avoid "infinity take away infinity" ***if X is bigger than or equal to 0 and P[X= infinity] bigger than 0, this implies E[X] = infinity (the chance of X being infinite will outweigh all of the finite possibilities and make E[X] Infinite)
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PROPOSITION 2.4.1 Expectations for RVs X and Y
For random variables X, Y such that E[X] and E[Y] exist: LINEARITY if a,b in R then E[ aX +bY] = a E[X] + bE[y] ``` INDEPENDENCE if X, Y are indep then E[XY] = E[X]E[Y] ABSOLUTE VALUES |E[X]| is less thn or equal to E[|X|] MONOTONICITY if X is less than or equal to Y then E[X] is less than or equal to E[Y] ```
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indicator function for events
for event A in F, 1_A: Ω to R 1_A(ω) = {1 if ω is in A {0 if ω isn't in A E(1_A) = 1P(A) + 0(P(A^c)) =P(A) * sometimes write 1_{event} = 1{event}
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LEMMA 2.4.2 | indicator function for events
Let A∈G (remember G is curly G similar to g) Then function 1_A is G-measurable ``` proof: Range of 1_A is {0,1}. Pre-images are: 1_A -1 (0) =Ω\A ∈G 1_A -1 (1) = A ∈G by2.2.2, Y is G-measurable ```
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CONDITIONING
breaking RV into cases for example, given any random var X we write: X= X 1_{X≥1} + X1_{X less than 1} ( as only one of the RHS terms is non-zero)
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for example, given any random var X we write: X= X 1_{X≥1} + X1_{X less than 1} ( as only one of the RHS terms is non-zero) we use this to prove an inequality:
putting |X| in place of X then taking the expectation to obtain: E[|X|] = E[|X| 1_{|X|≥1} ] + E[|X| 1_{|X|less than 1} ] ≤ E[X^2 1_{|X|≥1} ] + 1 ≤ E[X^2] +1 (to reduce second key point we can only use |x| is less than or equal to x^2 if x is bigger than or equal to 1) ie we want to prove E[|X|] ≤E[X^2] +1 |X| = |X| 1_{|X|≥1} + |X| 1_{|X| less thn 1} BY MONOTONICITY: FIRST TERM |X| 1_{|X|≥1} ≤ X^2 1_{|X|≥1} assume |X| ≥ 1 and for reals X ≤ X^2 SECONT TERM |X| 1_{|X|less thn 1}≤ 1_{|X| Less thn 1} assume |X| less than 1 and for reals X ≤ 1 |X| = |X| 1_{|X|≥1} + |X| 1_{|X| less thn 1} ≤ X^2* 1_{|X|≥1} + 1 *1_{|X|less thn 1} ≤ X^2 + 1 by monotonicity of expectation: E(|X|) ≤ E [1 +X^2] -1 + E[X^2]
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DEF 2.4.3 L^p
Let p∈ [1, infinity) we say that X ∈ L^p if E[|X|^p] is less than infinity we usually care about cases p = 1 or p = 2
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L^1 and L^2
*by definition L^1 is the set of random variables such that E[|X|] is less than infinity ie that its finite * L^2 is the set of random variables such that Var(X) is less than infinity Var(X) = E(X^2) - E(X)^2 ie finite var * from 2.7, if X ∈L^2 then X∈L^1
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DEF 2.4.4 | bounded
We say that a random variable X is bounded if there exist a deterministic constant c ∈R such that |X| ≤ c if X is bounded then using monotonicity: E[|X|^p] ≤ E[C^p] =c^p less than infinity meaning that X ∈ L^p for all p