Chapter 5: Estimating Population Growth Rates Flashcards

(41 cards)

1
Q

exponential (or geometric) growth

A
  • (per capita) rate of change in abundance that is not affected by density
  • growth = increase or decrease
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2
Q

examples of exponential decline

A
  • Hawaiian monk seal: 3.9% decline per year
  • Devil facial disease
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3
Q

Malthus dilemma

A

contrast between exponential growth vs arithmetic growth

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4
Q

Malthus dilemma: geometric growth

A
  • population
  • increases by a constant factor of 2
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5
Q

Malthus dilemma: arithmetic growth

A
  • food
  • increases by constant difference of 2
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6
Q

λ =

A

Nt + 1 / Nt

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7
Q

when λ = 1

A

the population is stationary

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8
Q

when λ < 1

A

the population decreases geometrically

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9
Q

when λ > 1

A

the population increases geometrically

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10
Q

% change per year =

A

(λ-1) * 100

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11
Q

NT =

A

No * λT

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12
Q

discrete time

A

change in N over 1 year

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13
Q

discrete time equation

A

Nt + 1 = Nt (λt)

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14
Q

continuous time

A

instantaneous change

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15
Q

continuous time equation

A

dN/dt = rN

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16
Q

r =

A

slope of a line

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17
Q

continuous (exponential) growth equation

18
Q

continuous (exponential) growth

A
  • the rate of change in population size at each instant in time
  • the instantaneous per capital growth rate
19
Q

per capita growth rate

A

the average contribution each individual makes to population change

20
Q

how to convert between λ and r

A

r = ln(λ)
λ = e^r

21
Q

when r = 0

A

the population is stable

22
Q

when r < 0

A

the population decreases exponentially

23
Q

when r > 0

A

the population increases exponentially

24
Q

advantages of λ

A

translates easily into ‘percent annual growth’ an easily understandable metric

25
disadvantages of λ
cannot average over consecutive values
26
advantages of r
- center around 0 - successive r values can be added or averaged over time - r values can be divided to convert to different time scales
27
disadvantages of r
a hard to explain logarithm of the proportionate population change per time step
28
when use an exponential growth model for wild populations?
- often used as a null model to then identify deviations - unaffected by density - in newly established populations - populations recovering from catastrophic declines - invasive, pest outbreaks
29
population growth is often ________
variable (stochasticity)
30
what causes stochasticity in growth rate over time?
- sample variance - process variance
31
sample variance
- aka observation error - nature is not varying, but our estimation error makes it seem like it
32
process variance
the one actually affecting changes in abundance & the one we care about
33
internal drivers of process variance
- age structure - density dependence - connectivity
34
process variance: changes from interacting species
- predation - competition - parasitism - human harvest
35
process variance: stochastic factors
- environmental stochasticity - demographic stochasticity
36
demographic stochasticity
due to random deviation from mean birth and death rates
37
where is demographic stochasticity especially important
small population
38
where does demographic stochasticity arise from?
strictly from population size & not from any variability in the environment
39
demographic stochasticity can cause ...
declines in small populations
40
environmental stochasticity
- due to extrinsic factors that cause mean vital rates to change randomly over time - effects less dependent on population size
41
environmental stochasticity examples
- early springs - summer droughts - hurricanes - forest fires