Chapter 8 MCQs

Question 1

1. What best defines a scenario in operational risk management?
   a) A detailed plan of future financial investments
   b) A list of potential operational losses
   c) An outline description or model of a combination of unexpected or adverse events
   d) A historical record of past operational failures

Answer 1

c

Question 2

2. What is the primary objective of conducting scenario analysis?
   a) To calculate the exact financial loss in future
   b) To assess the firm’s exposure to severe but plausible adverse events
   c) To document past operational losses
   d) To fulfill a regulatory formality without practical application

Answer 2

b

Question 3

Which type of scenarios primarily derives from the business’s actual exposures?
a) Theoretical scenarios
b) Bottom-up scenarios
c) Top-down scenarios
d) External scenarios

Answer 3

b

Question 4

What are scenarios considered to be in operational risk management?
a) Mandatory regulatory requirements
b) Optional tools for risk analysis
c) A powerful forward-looking tool
d) A historical review tool

Answer 4

c

Question 5

5. How many scenarios does a firm typically aim to develop for effective analysis?
   a) Only the most severe scenario
   b) A single, all-encompassing scenario
   c) As many as possible without limit
   d) A range of scenarios with different severities

Answer 5

d

Question 6

6. What is the purpose of maintaining a library of scenarios?
   a) To minimize work effort in scenario development
   b) For re-use or adaptation to reflect changing circumstances
   c) Solely for regulatory compliance
   d) To impress stakeholders with extensive documentation

Answer 6

b

Question 7

7. Which is NOT a benefit of a comprehensive scenario analysis programme?
   a) Reduces the need for operational risk management
   b) Fosters risk management awareness throughout the organisation
   c) Helps embed a strong risk culture
   d) Identifies new strategic and operational challenges

Answer 7

a

Question 8

8. Which factor does not directly affect the scenario analysis process?
   a) The regulatory environment
   b) The size of the operational risk team
   c) Selection of the right participants
   d) The business environment

Answer 8

b

Question 9

9. Which approach isolates participants to minimize bias in scenario analysis?
   a) Workshops
   b) Interviews
   c) Delphi method
   d) Online questionnaires

Answer 9

c

Question 10

10. What is crucial when selecting participants for scenario analysis?
    a) Their availability for meetings
    b) Their seniority within the firm
    c) Their knowledge and experience
    d) Their preference for scenarios

Answer 10

c

Question 11

11. How are war games used in scenario analysis?
    a) To strictly follow regulatory requirements
    b) To anticipate competitive developments and formulate viable options
    c) To reduce the overall cost of risk management
    d) As the only method for scenario analysis

Answer 11

b

Question 12

12. What is a key challenge in scenario analysis?
    a) Predicting exact future events
    b) Ensuring scenarios remain plausible while managing creativity
    c) Limiting the analysis to only top-down scenarios
    d) Using only external data for scenario construction

Answer 12

b

Question 13

13. What should be included in the documentation of a new scenario?
    a) Only the financial impacts
    b) A detailed action plan for risk mitigation
    c) A clear name and detailed description
    d) A complete list of all past related incidents

Answer 13

c

Question 14

14. Which approach to scenario identification focuses on key controls?
    a) Loss-driven approach
    b) Event-driven approach
    c) Control-driven approach
    d) Expert opinion approach

Answer 14

c

Question 15

15. What output measures the number of times a scenario may manifest?
    a) Severity
    b) Impact
    c) Frequency
    d) Likelihood

Answer 15

c

Question 16

16. How is “likelihood” commonly expressed in scenario analysis?
    a) As a percentage
    b) By specific dates
    c) By ranges of values representing low, medium, or high likelihood
    d) In financial terms

Answer 16

c

Question 17

17. What term is used to describe the possible severity of scenario impacts?
    a) Probability
    b) Frequency
    c) Impact and severity
    d) Risk appetite

Answer 17

c

Question 18

18. Which type of bias refers to experts unduly influencing scenario analysis outcomes?
    a) Confirmation bias
    b) Anchoring bias
    c) Expert bias
    d) Availability bias

Answer 18

c

Question 19

19. What does a comprehensive scenario analysis program require?
    a) Only a minimal time commitment
    b) A detailed historical loss database
    c) A large number of scenarios
    d) A reasonable financial budget and time investment

Answer 19

d

Question 20

20. Which type of scenarios are driven by macro-level factors and senior management direction?
    a) Bottom-up scenarios
    b) Top-down scenarios
    c) External scenarios
    d) Internally focused scenarios

Answer 20

b

Question 21

21. Which approach to scenario analysis is particularly useful for senior participants with limited availability?
    a) Workshops
    b) Interviews
    c) Online questionnaires
    d) War games

Answer 21

b

Question 22

22. What is a potential drawback of using workshops for scenario analysis?
    a) Time efficiency
    b) Bias from dominant participants
    c) Lack of detailed documentation
    d) Inability to cover multiple scenarios

Answer 22

b

Question 23

23. Which of the following best ensures consistency in scenario analysis over time?
    a) Using the same participants for every session
    b) Regularly updating scenario documentation
    c) Limiting the number of scenarios analyzed
    d) Focusing only on internal data for scenario construction

Answer 23

b

Question 24

24. What is the primary challenge in converting subjective measures into objective data in scenario analysis?
    a) Identifying the right software tools
    b) Ensuring participant availability
    c) Designing data collection for modeling purposes
    d) Obtaining regulatory acceptance of the analysis program

Answer 24

c

Question 25

25. How does the Delphi method aim to mitigate bias in scenario analysis?
    a) By using a panel of experts who remain anonymous
    b) By conducting all discussions in-person
    c) Through the exclusive use of external data
    d) By limiting the number of scenarios analyzed

Answer 25

a

Question 26

26. Which scenario identification approach focuses on outputs of the firm’s RCSA program?
    a) Loss event-driven approach
    b) Risk-driven approach
    c) Control-driven approach
    d) Expert opinion approach

Answer 26

b

Question 27

27. What is NOT a form of bias that can affect scenario analysis?
    a) Optimism bias
    b) Expert bias
    c) Scenario fatigue
    d) Confirmation bias

Answer 27

c

Question 28

28. In scenario analysis, what does frequency measure?
    a) The impact severity of the scenario
    b) The number of times the scenario may occur
    c) The likelihood of scenario occurrence
    d) The potential financial loss from the scenario

Answer 28

b

Question 29

29. What is a benefit of using online questionnaires in scenario analysis?
    a) Encourages group consensus
    b) Minimizes time spent by participants
    c) Allows for the expression of individual perspectives
    d) Eliminates the need for a facilitator

Answer 29

c

Question 30

30. What challenge does “thinking the unthinkable” pose in scenario analysis?
    a) It may lead to overly conservative risk assessments
    b) Participants may struggle to conceptualize extreme but plausible scenarios
    c) It can cause scenarios to be too focused on past events
    d) It often results in scenarios that are too optimistic

Answer 30

b