Climate Risk Flashcards
(52 cards)
Climate Risk results from
An interaction of hazards or driving factors with exposure and vulnerability
Stranded assets have suffered from…
Premature / unanticipated write-offs due to climate factors
Whilst broader climate / net zero discussions are driven through the UNFCCC, climate risk analysis is usually driven by…
Financial regulators and private sector institutions
When was TCFD formed and under whom
2015 under the aegis of the G20 Financial Stability Board
Understanding climate risks does not require certainty from a climate model, but does need…
A focus on understanding how physical climate hazards or drivers of economic low carbon transition affects firms and financial outcomes
TCFD Framework & Recommendations - final report issued ___?
2017
Categories of Risk TCFD breaks down into…
Physical - acute & chronic
Transition - market ; technology ; reputational ; policy & legal
Key TCFD parameters include:
- Metrics & Targets
- Risk Management
- Strategy
- Governance
What are the key features of the TCFD recommendations? They are intended to be…
- adaptable by all organisations
- included in financial filings
- designed to be decision-useful, forward looking
- strongly focused on risks & opportunities
Vulnerability refers to notions of…
Resilience
Flexibility
Adaptation
Vulnerability at facility level links to - - -
Vulnerability at corporate level links to - - -
Facility level refers to physical infrastructure
Corporate levels refers to lack of preparation for such issues
Stranded assets & unburnable carbon - what is the link
Unburnable carbon is FF reserves that cannot be fully exploited if 2*c goal is to be met. The FF reserves are stranded assets
Stranded assets are largely concentrated within the
High emitting sectors - primarily energy and industrial sectors
Provide examples of how physical risks can result in stranded assets
Lack of availability of fresh water
Disruption to supply chains
Sea level rise / coastal flooding
Current policies put the globe on for what *C of warming
3*c
Even with an average warming of 1.5*c compared to pre-industrial times…what will this mean for areas of the globe
Impacts will still be severe
Arctic winters will be on average 4.5*c warmer
More Med droughts
Comment on the ability of models to predict hazards
Give an example
Wide range in ability to predict the magnitude and freq. of specific hazards, or their specific locations
All models agree that precipitation patterns will change - they disagree on magnitude (& decrease or increase)
How does the IPCC show model agreement
Cross hatching to indicate where 2/3 of models agree
What type of accuracy do IPCC models provide?
Looks several decades ahead and provides fairly robust estimates for 2100
Limited information on next 1/2 decades and limited on smaller geographical scales
Climate hazards require information on the interaction between climate events & _____
Therefore models must include ____
Local conditions
Land cover and human land use patterns
For acute physical risks, why do we not need to rely exclusively on models?
Increased incidence is already visible in natural catastrophe data from past several decades
Extreme hazard attribution science - provide three examples
Australian wildfires of 2019-20 made at least 30% more likely by CC
2019 Heatwaves in France unlikely to have occurred without CC
2020 Siberian Heatwave (40*c) almost impossible without CC
Physical risks only occur when there is
Exposure and vulnerability
Indirect risks include…
Supply Chain
Litigation
Systemic
