Cost Estimation:

Question 1

Cost estimation is a blend of ___ and ____.

Answer 1

Art, Science

Question 2

True or False: a high degree of accuracy is attainable without much effort

Answer 2

False

Question 3

Factors that affect cost estimation?

Answer 3

Optimism
Marketing
Blaming/Killing the messenger
Scoping of requirements

Question 4

Ways to get better cost estimates:

Answer 4

1. Study lessons learned
2. insist on estimation integrity
3. Analyse cost early on
4. Define project better

Question 5

Cost Estimation Methods:

Answer 5

1. Bottom up analysis
2. Analogous Estimating
3. Parametric Esimating

Question 6

Estimation Method: Bottom up Analysis

Answer 6

estimate based on material/labor costs

not appropriate for conceptual design phase

Question 7

Estimation Method: Analogous

Answer 7

Experience based approach (heuristic)
based on similar products
can be applied at any level
Not flexible during trade studies due to limited past cases

Question 8

Estimation Method: Parametric

Answer 8

Based on CERs (Cost Estimation Formulas)
Can apply complexity factor for changing tech
Accounts for hardware dev

Question 9

Cost Estimation methods with appropriate lifecycle phase:

Answer 9

Pre A & A - Parametric
B - Any method
C - Bottom up (detailed)
D - Bottom up (detailed)

Question 10

True or False: Use of the detailed cost estimation method increase over project maturity.

Answer 10

True

Question 11

True of False: Use of the parametric cost estimation method increases over project maturity.

Answer 11

False

Question 12

Pros & Cons: Parametric Estimation

Answer 12

Pros:
- less time consuming
- more effective for what ifs
- More consistent estimates
- Traceable to past space systmes
Cons:
- applicable to set range of historical data
- Must adjust CERs for new technology an shit
- Usually not accurate for later phases in project

Question 13

CER

Answer 13

Cost Estimate Formula:

We fit curves to data points between some measured parameter (weight/volume) and associated cost

Question 14

We should ____ historical data to account for gradual inflation over time when using the parametric estimation method.

Answer 14

Normalize/Adjust/Account for

Question 15

The ‘complexity factor’ for a CER ______ with the increase in component design changes.

Answer 15

Complexity

Question 16

CER Complexity Factor:

Answer 16

Used to adjust CER for unique features unaccounted for in historical data.

Question 17

What is the learning curve for cost estimation?

Answer 17

The idea that we learn how to use less resources and do things faster with each iteration of a design.

Question 18

Formulae: Learning Curve

Answer 18

Y = k*x^n
Y - production effort unit (hours,$)
k - first unit effort
x - number of units
n - learning factor (percentage)

Question 19

The learning curve factor for aerospace projects is approximately ____ %.

Answer 19

85%

Question 20

Cost estimates include ____ aspects of mission effort

Answer 20

All

Question 21

Multi-System Wraps:

Answer 21

costs incurred when integrating subsystems

Question 22

Cost distributions skewed to the right are ____ costly.

Answer 22

More

Question 23

Cost distributions skewed to the left are ____ costly.

Answer 23

Less

Question 24

The _____ _____ _____ is a method used to sum cost distributions.

Answer 24

Monte Carlo Simulation

Question 25

What does an "S-Curve" show?

Answer 25

The cost risk relationship

Question 26

The ______ is a result of the statistical summation of cost distributions.

Answer 26

S-Curve

Question 27

An S-Curve shows _____ that a project will cost an estimated amount or less.

Answer 27

Confidence

Question 28

We want the S-Curve to track to the ____ as the project matures.

Answer 28

Left: results in higher probability of lower cost.

Question 29

What is cost phasing?

Answer 29

Spreading the estimated cost over the design phases, years, or other time metric.

Question 30

Complex, single copy, projects have a ___, ___ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

Answer 30

Tall, Left

Question 31

Complex, multiple copy, projects have ____, ____ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

Answer 31

Tall, Even

Question 32

Simple, single copy, projects have ____, ____ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

Answer 32

Short, Even

Question 33

Simple, multiple copy, projects have ____, ____ skewed BETA curve. (left, right, even short, tall)

Answer 33

Tall, Right

Question 34

A beta curve shows the relationship between ____ and ______

Answer 34

Cost and time

Question 35

True or False: wraps cost 33% of project

Answer 35

True

Question 36

True or False: 75% of recurring cost is incurred by the CDR.

Answer 36

False. | 75% of non-recurring by CDR