For a country to democratise they must first ____ their current _____regime, ____ a democratic regime and then finally (and most importantly) _____the new democratic regime
end
authoritarian
install
consolidate
what and when are the stages of democratisation
the early industrial revolutions throughout the 19th century and early 20th century, to the post World War II expansion of global democracy, to the current third wave which started in the mid 1970’s and is still staking place today in regions like the Middle East
what are the structural and agency factors for democratization
structural - economic and institutions
agency - mass mobilization and political elites
who did the economic development argument stem from and what was the two key points in their argument?
Lipset’s 1959 ‘Modernization theory’
- higher levels of economic well-being within a country leads to widespread education, literacy and subsequently urbanization which in turn develops democratic values and attitude
- within less economically developed countries, dictators have a higher value and the cost of destroying capital stock is lower, whereas compared to wealthier countries there is smaller gain from acquiring all rather than part of the total income, and therefore struggling for dictatorship is more appealing within poorer countries
three flaws within the economic development argument
- assumes that the promotion of democratic values will lead to the mobilization of the masses to push for democratic change which not only ignores the other barriers restricting democratisation but also assumes there will be subsequent popular support for democracy
- the political elites within wealthier countries to have a desire to push for a democratic system because they have less to lose financially than if they were in an authoritarian regime when it is more likely that the main concern of the political elites is their loss of power when shifting to a democratic regime
- assumption that economic development will lead to democracy as although historically the first and longest standing democratic regimes were within economically advanced countries (such as Britain, United States, France etc.) it does not mean it is a direct causation or condition for countries to democratise
two examples against economic development
- in Argentina in the 1970’s there wasnt popular support for democratic regime and it turned back to an authoritarian regime
- Saudi Arabia has a polity index score of -10, despite being one of the richest countries in the world
Ross points this down to a ____, repression, and ______ effect which means elites are more likely to dampen and ____ democratic pressures due to their high wealth, ultimately arguing that oil wealth has made democratisation harder to achieve
rentier
moderization
repress
przeworski and Limongi investigated Lipset’s ‘modernization’ theory and concluded what?
economic development can be a condition for countries to democratise but is more likely to consolidate rather than create a democratic regime
how does institutional design lead to democratisation and give an example
- there will typically be a conflict between past authoritarian elites and the new democrats when deciding institutional arrangements and the distribution of power within them, which can subsequently shape the level of democratisation within the country
- . With the exception of the United States, there is strong evidence that parliamentary systems are more sustainable for democracy than presidential systems
how can institutional design be an issue for democratisation
- , institutional design can also be a issue for democratisation as it’s relationship with political leaders, more specifically their leadership type, can be problematic for the development of democracy.
- certain democratic institutions may cause outcomes that generate political elites or parties to opt for authoritarianism.
- Ultimately, it is clear that the institutional design is key for countries to initially democratise and further consolidate democracy within their state
what does Bunce (200) argue about institutional design
Bunce cites that new democracies are most threatened who is viewed as a liberator of the state as when the leader gains the power of presidency and the resources that come with it (having typically been influential in the institutional design process) then the likelihood of democracy being sustained decreases
how does culture lead to democratization
The argument follows that in some cultures democratic values such as individual rights, liberty, freedom of expression etc are more common (eg. Western) than in other cultures (such as Islam etc.) and therefore a country is more likely to be democratic if there is a democratic culture
argument against culture
- However, the cultural argument could be considered endogenic, as it could be that democracy leads to cultural changes and that is the reason for the certain cultures having democratic values which therefore weakens the importance of culture as a condition for democratisation.
- Furthermore, cultures within countries are always changing and never fixed so therefore it may be hard to pinpoint democratic change being down to culture.
link between culture and economic development for democratisation
Another argument is that (as previously mentioned) economic development may create a cultural change within a country which will subsequently create democratisation. Although economic development may change some attitudes within a specific culture, it is unlikely it is the sole factor for cultural change when there are multiple factors that contribute to this and that this change is going to completely reshape a whole culture and its attitudes to aim for democracy
what is liberalization?
liberalization is when a gap in the regime is exploited to broaden the social bases within the regime without attempting to change its structure
how does liberalisation lead to democratisation
liberalization as part of mobilizing the masses is only successful if everyone involved in the movement has full and accurate knowledge on preferences of everyone else. O’Donnell and Schmitter argue that liberalization and eventual democratization “involves a crucial component of mobilization and organisation of large numbers of individuals” (O’Donnell & Schmitter, 1986, p. 18). This ultimately highlights that mass mobilization through liberalization is a key condition for mass mobilization and therefore democratisation to take place
how do political elites influence democratisation
Political elites are not only pivotal in providing the breakthrough for founding the new democratic regime but then go on to hold an even more important role of either sustaining or undermining the new regime. This may either be through their design of the institution and constitution (as this does hold the basis for the very survival of the democracy) or their use of power to protect or destroy the democracy
what is the most influential and crucial condition for democratisation
linkage between masses and elites
how does the linkage between masses and elites promote democratisation
- For many political elites from previous regimes, democracy may represent a second best compromise of the power and nature of their role in previous regime whilst sympathizing with the popular interest, placing democracy above immediate partisan objectives that the conflict between the elites and mass had held.
problem with mass and elite mobilisation argument
this argument is reliant on the notion that both the elites and masses primary motivation for democracy is wealth, which although may be part of their incentive, it is unlikely for this to be the sole factor for both sets of elites, with other factors also playing a part in their individual drives for democracy.
example of mass and elite mobilization
An example of this in the Polish and Spanish transition to democracy, in which the willingness of the elites in power and seeking power to negotiate with each other was heavily affected by the behaviour of the mass population.
