Demographic Analysis Flashcards by Trisha Romero

From the Greek language, ___ means description of people.
* scientific study of human population primarily with respect to size,
structure and development.
* concerned with current size and characteristics of human population,
how they were attainted and how they are changing.

DEMOGRAPHY

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represents the
starting point for planning at
all scales

Demography or population
studies

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Provides guidelines for deciding
total land requirements and the
basis of land between various
competing land uses

Demography or population studies

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refers to the total number of individuals in a territory at a specified time.

POPULATION

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basis for determining
whether the level of public services like
schools, health centers, recreational facilities,

Population

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dictates the policy for most of
the human settlements needs

Population make-up and distribution

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Generates relevant population data in a specific area
Involves the determination of present trends governing changes
in population statistics as well as future population shifts in a
given area
Can readily be accessed from the National Census conducted
nationwide at regular five-year intervals

DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

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In undertaking demographic analysis, three aspects of the population must be
studied:

Size
Distribution
Characteristics

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Fundamental Demographic Methods

Treat the population as a whole
without disaggregation with
respect to age, sex or other
characteristics.

Trend Models

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Fundamental Demographic Methods

Treat a given population as an
aggregate of the various groups, and
the evolution of the population
results (in part) from the interaction
of these groups

Composition Models

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Methods of Population

Projection

Uses mathematical formulae

Mathematical Method

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Methods of Population

Projection

Projects future population
based on economic conditions

Economic Method

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Methods of Population

Projection

Projects population by demographic
components

Component or Cohort-Survival
Method

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SOURCES OF POPULATION CHANGE

1.Fertility
2.Mortality
3.Migration

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refers to the live births that occur within a
population.

FERTILITY

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refers to the number of births divided by the midyear population, usually expressed in terms of thousands. It is the simplest and most commonly used index of fertility.

Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

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Crude Birth Rate (CBR) formula

CBR = (B/P)* 1000
B = no of births in given year
P = total mid yr popu of same year

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Total Mid-year Population (July 1)

Pt = Po (1 + r/100)t *small t
P2021 = P2020 (1+ r/100) *small 0.5

Where:
Po = pop at an earlier period
Pt = unknown pop or to be estimated
1.0 = constant
r = annual population growth rate
t = time interval between Po and Pt

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refers to the occurrence of deaths in a population.

MORTALITY

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is a rough measure of mortality. It refers to the number of deaths per 1,000 population.

Crude Death Rate (CDR)

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Crude Death Rate (CDR) formula

CDR= (D/P) * 1000

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Rate of population increase in a given period
due to births and deaths

Rate of Natural Increase (RNI)

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Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) formula

RNI = (CBR - CDR)

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Geographic movement of people across a specified
boundary for the purpose of establishing a new
permanent or semi-permanent residence

MIGRATION

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The number of immigrants arriving at a destination per 1,000 population at that destination in a given year.

Immigration Rate

Immigration Rate formula

IR = Number of immig/ total popu at destination * 1000 ## Footnote unit = answ per 1000 residents

The number of emigrants departing an area of origin per 1,000 population at that area of origin in a given year.

Emigration Rate

Emigration Rate formula

ER = # of emig/ total popu of origin * 1000 ## Footnote unit = answ per 1000 residents

1. Shows the net effect of immigration and emigration in an area’s population expressed as “>” or “<“ per 1,000 population of an area in a given year. 2. Shows the net difference between the numbers of persons entering a geographic area (Immigrants) and those leaving the area (Emigrants) per 1,000 population of an area in a given year.

NMR= # of immigrants - # of emigrants/ total pop *1000 NMR = IR-ER*1000

The balance among fertility, mortality and migration determines whether a population increases, remains stationary, or decreases in number.

POPULATION DYNAMICS

The relation between births and deaths is referred to

Natural Population Increase (Natural Population Growth).

When the net effect of migration is added to natural increase, this referred to

Total Natural Increase (Total Growth).

COMPUTING POPULATION GROWTH RATES

1.Arithmetic 2.Geometric 3.Exponential

# COMPUTING POPULATION GROWTH RATES Assumes that there are linear increases or decreases in population

ARITHMETIC CHANGE

ARITHMETIC CHANGE formula

r= Pt-Po/ t (Po)*k

Assumes that the population changes at a rate where the increments or decreases are compounded over a specified period

GEOMETRIC CHANGE

GEOMETRIC CHANGE formula

r= antilog log Pt/Po / t -1*k | Pt = Po (1+r/100( *small t ## Footnote Example: Pt = Population on Sept. 1, 1995 = 68,616,536 Po = Population on May 1, 1990 = 60,703,206 t = 5.33 r = ? k = 100

Assumes an instantaneous growth rate

EXPONENTIAL CHANGE

Refers to the length of time a particular population would double its size under a given growth rate

DOUBLING TIME

# POPULATION PROJECTIONS This guide suggests the combined use of

GEOMETRIC and PARTICIPATION RATE.

This method simply uses ratio or percent share of a particular segment of population to total population using actual/latest census data. ## Footnote Population per barangay Dependent population Labor force population Population per age group

PARTICIPATION RATE METHOD (PR)

Projection required is yearly for the first 5 years and 5 years thereafter.

City/Municipal Population Projection

Participation Rate (PR) formula

PR = Po (base pop of city/municipality)/ Po (base popn of province)

Use the Geometric formula to get the Growth Rate (r) using the two latest census. And use it to project the whole planning period. * Growth Rate (r) – 2010 and 2015 * Project 2018-2028 (using derived r)

Alternative method:

It refers to the composition of the population in terms of age, sex, marital status and other characteristics of the population.

Population Characteristics

simply the number of males per 100 females in a population.

Sex Ratio

Sex Ratio formula

SR=M/F *100

The ratio of the population in the dependent ages of 0-14 years and 65 years and over to the population in the working ages 15-64 years.

Age Dependency Ratio

(below 15 years old)

Young Dependency Ratio

(65 years old and above)

Old Age Dependency Ratio

(below 15 years + 65 years old and above)

Age Dependency Ratio

refers to the population 15 years old and over who contribute to the production of goods and services in the country.

Labor Force

proportion of the total number of persons in the labor force to the total population 15 years old and over.

Labor Force Participation Rate

- includes all persons who are 15 years old and over as of their last birthday and are reported as: i. without work, i.e., had no job or business during the basic survey reference period; and i. currently available for work, i.e., were available and willing to take up work in paid employment or self employment during the basic survey reference period, and/or would be available and willing to take up work in paid employment or self employment within two weeks after the interview date; and, iii. seeking work, i.e., had taken specific steps to look for a job or establish a business during the basic survey reference period; OR not seeking work due to the following reasons: (a) tired/believe no work available, i.e, the discouraged workers who looked for work within the last six months prior to the interview date; (b) awaiting results of previous job applications; (c) temporary illness/disability; (d) bad weather; and (e) waiting for rehire/job recall.

Unemployed

the proportion of total number of employed persons to the total number of persons in the labor force

Employment Rate

Singulate Mean Age at Marriage (SMAM)

MARITAL STATUS

the average length of single life expressed in years among those who marry before age 50.

singulate mean age at marriage (SMAM)

- derived from a set of percent singles at all ages - It denotes the number of years that a married individual spends in singlehood before ultimately marrying.

Singulate Mean Age at Marriage(SMAM)

graphical presentation of the population. It consists of bars: the height represents the age groups while the length represents the absolute population, or percent of the population in each age group. The sum of the bars is equal to the total population or 100% of the population. The graph usually depicts the male and female populations separately.

population pyramid

Three General Types of Population Pyramids

1. Expansive 2. Constrictive 3. Stationary

has a broad base that indicates high fertility.

expansive pyramid

has a base that is narrower than the middle of the pyramid. It indicates moderate population growth.

constrictive pyramid

has a base which is approximately equal to each subsequent age group, tapering at older ages. It indicates a moderate proportion of the children, a relatively large proportion of persons in the old ages and a low population growth.

stationary type of pyramid

Indicated by a pyramid with a large percentage of people in the younger ages.

Rapid Growth

Reflected by a pyramid with a smaller proportion of the population in the younger ages.

Slow Growth

Populations are shown by roughly equal numbers of people in all age ranges, tapering off gradually at the older ages.

Zero or Declining Growth

expressed as the number of persons per unit of land area, usually in hectares or square kilometers. ## Footnote Measures of Urbanization

Gross Population Density

the ratio of population to the total area of arable land. An arable land, for convenience, is defined as the total land area of lands classified as “alienable and disposable ## Footnote Measures of Urbanization

Net Population Density

also used in reclassifying the PSA population groupings into the desired schoolgoing age population group ## Footnote Measurement of School-Going Age Population (6-21 years old)

Interpolation Technique

School-going age population:

* Primary – 7 to 12 years old * Junior HS – 13 to 16 years old * Senior HS – 17 to 18 years old * Tertiary – 19 to 22 years old

Housing Need

Projected Housing need = New Household + Service Backlog ## Footnote 1. Doubled – Up (DUHH) = No. of Households (HH) – No. of Housing Units (HU) 2. Unacceptable Housing Units = 5% of HU made of mixed materials 3. Mixed Materials = HU with walls and roof made of wood, cogon/Nipa/ Anahaw, asbestos and others (PSA data on Occupied HU by construction materials) 4. Makeshift / Salvage / Improvised HU (per PSA data) 5. Others

1. Day Care Center 2. Senior Citizen Care Center 3. Day Center for Street Children 4. Temporary Shelter for Women 5. Reception and Study Center 6. Family Life Resource Center 7. Early Childhood Development Resource Center

Tool 1: Inventory and Assessment of Social Welfare Facilities

Projected Population (below poverty line) = 16,000 Current Clientele (DSWD Survey) = 2,000 Current Population (below poverty line) = 15,000 Projected Clientele = Projected x Current Clientele / Current Population

Tool 2: Clientele Projection of Social Welfare

1. Police/Firemen 2. Type of Barangay Brigades (disaster, tanod, and traffic auxilliary) 3. Police and Fire Facilities 4. Number and Location of Police/Fire Station and Jails 5. Fire Incidence ## Footnote Protective Services

Tool 1: Inventory and Assessment Related to Peace and Order Condition

Police Force = Size of Police Force / Total Population ## Footnote Ideal: 1 policeman:500 persons Minimum Standard PPR = 1:1,000

Tool 2: Determination of Police Force

Tool 3: Determination of Fireman-Population Ratio

Fireman- Population Ratio = No. of Fireman / Total Population ## Footnote City/Large Municipalities – 1 Fireman: 2,000 people PNP standard – 1:500

a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio for Policemen PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 policemen

Population Demand for Policemen

b. Current Police = Total Population Demand - Force Requirement Actual No. of Police Force CPF = 120 – 20 = 100 policemen

Population Demand for Policemen

Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement

a. Population Demand = Population X Standard Ratio for Fireman PDP = 60,000 X 1/500 = 120 firemen b. Current Firemen Requirement = Total Population Demand - Actual No. of Firemen = 120 – 20 = 100 firemen

Tool 4: Determining Future Requirement

PPF = Projected Population Standard Number of Police / Force to Population Ratio ## Footnote Projection of Police Force Requirement