Demographic Transition Theory Flashcards
(14 cards)
what are the key features of the DTT … give us some context
the DTT is an explanation of how our population has evolved over time
based on North American and Western European countries
the most recent cycle corresponds to the first stage of the DTT (Trovato, 2015)
what is the idea of a fifth stage in the DTT
this is a period with birth rates falling below replacement level, older population (more elderly than youth)
population growth begins to decline
Japan is exhibiting this in 2025
stage 1 of DTT
high fertility and mortality, population growth remains CONSTANT
pre-industrial period, low life expectancy and replacement level fertility in the 4-6 range
stage 2 of DTT
high fertility and rapidly declining mortality … high population growth
decline in infant mortality rates, as modernization occurs
stage 3 of DTT
declining fertility rates (still positive) and falling mortality … lower pop. growth
science + tech advancement in 1900s-1950s, contraceptives introduced
stage 4 of DTT
low fertility and mortality rates, slow constant population growth
fertility at replacement level, life expectancy in the 80s
1950s ~ onward
what are the 3 ways to look at the DTT
historical: describing the past
schematic: modernization lowers mortality and then fertility
predictive model: if we modernize another society, same pattern will follow
what are the 6 critiques of the DTT
vague modernization definition
ignoring pre-transition variation
unequal transition time
narrow focus on ‘development’
linear progression assumption
neglect of migration
explain the vague modernization definition critique (1)
vaguely specifies what modernization entails + how much is needed for a country to go thru the DTT
also has a Eurocentric focus which may limit generalization
explain the ignoring pre-transition variation critique (2)
before modernization took place, not all countries had equally ‘high’ fertility
cultural norms are left out and these could have impacted fertility practices (e.g. age of first marriage impacts amt of babies people have)
explain the unequal transition time critique (3)
not all countries moved through the DTT at the same pace, and the theory fails to explain why
fertility and mortality have declined at different rates in different countries
explain the narrow focus on ‘development’ critique (4)
this is the overemphasis on the idea of modernization/development as descriptors for changes in fertility & mortality
yet, idea diffusion, medical innovations, and family planning policies (China) have influenced fertility and mortality
explain the linear progression assumption critique (5)
assumes that countries always move through the DTT in the same order
however, some countries have seen fertility & mortality change differently (skip stages)
explain the neglect of migration critique (6)
DTT only looks at the natural increase in population without considering the impact of migration on pop. growth
