Do Campaigns Matter? Flashcards
What are the main takeaways from the 1990 Ontario Provincial election?
From “Out of the Blue” Reading
second half page 117, first half page 118, second half page 125, first half page 126
- liberal’s (David Peterson, the premier heading into that election) strategic decision to attack the PCs (Mike Harris), who had largely unknown leader
- coalescing unsatisfied liberal vote with the NDP (Bob Rae), which led the NDP to form government in Ontario for the first time
- example to show, things done in campaigns do have an impact
- “all-ontario” night, Toronto rally featuring PM Brian Mulroney, Premier Frank Miller, Former Premier Bill Davis
- ended up not helping PCs because there was public distrust toward PM Mulroney and his government at the time, some viewed it as supporters of PCs showing up to help ease ship that was sinking
- While Peterson’s gov was popular heading into that election, they were looked at negatively for calling election 3 years into mandate, opportunistic
- for a while PCs were ahead of other two parties but that changed over course of campaign
What do Thomas Mulcair, Tim Hudak, Adrian Dix, Danielle Smith have in common?
- They’re all party leaders that were considered shoo in candidates by the media to win their respective elections, and in the end they didn’t form government and become Premier/Prime Minister
- all poised to become pm and premier, something had to intervene
- included failed election campaign that they didn’t win
what happened DID result in a victory for their opponents - a lot of people say campaigns don’t matter, outcome of race is predetermined etc.
- these leaders’ failed campaigns show us that campaigns can make difference
- maybe results are predetermined, politicians and parties spend a lot of money so surely it does matter
What did Burton, Miller and Shea say in “Campaign Craft” about effects of a campaign?
“minimal
does not mean absent”
- campaigns matter because if, on paper, they move the needle minimally and many factors of win/loss are predetermined, campaigns small effects can make huge effect
- power of conditions beyond a candidate
- control is contingent on decision to take advantage of those conditions
What are the takeaways of James E. Campbell’s study?
“When Have Presidential Campaigns Decided Election Outcomes?” (2001)
- campaign effect may have an impact on 2 to 5 percent of vote
- as little as 2 percent of vote can change outcome of races
- of the presidential campaigns that were looked at, largest number of them were not decisive
- elections 1952 1964 1956 1968 1976 1980 2000 1948 1960 1972 1988 1984 1992 1996
In “Get out the Vote”, what did Green & Gerber say increases turnout?
•Ground activity raises turnout
- how active race is
- how much ordinary people see around them
these things can increase voter turnout
In “Get out the Vote”, Green and Gerber talk about evidence vs. war stories. What does this mean?
- there is so much political history based on storytelling and anecdote, they tend to remember things more rosely than they happened, storytelling doesn’t do a good job of describing causation
- measuring causation, measuring effects, being able to discern and report whether or not a particular tactic had an impact
- inviting us to focus how we measure in discounting the stories
Burton & Shea say that: As electorate becomes more BLANK, BLANK is also increased
- as electorate becomes more volatile, persuadability is also increased
What do Schmitt-Beck and Farrell write are five impacts of campaigns?
- Persuasion
- Issue matrix - campaign effect on issues that matter to them, distinct from vote support
- Mobilization - getting people to the polls
- Name recognition - increase or change voter perception of those candidates
- Media coverage - what media says is affected by campaign
“The Art of War”, moral law or philosophy and culture , states five factors:
- Moral Law (Tao)
- Heaven
- Earth
- Commander
- Method & Discipline
- Vision/Philosophy
- Climate (external changing)
- Ground (external fixed)
- Leadership
- Methods & Discipline
