Do voters still exhibit stable links with established parties? Flashcards
(38 cards)
What does the sociological framework argue about why people vote certain ways?
Social characteristics, such as class, ethnicity, gender, or race, anchor political preferences.
How is early socialisation though to play an important role?
Evidence from social psychology suggests that people’s preferences are more guided by the situation around them and their ‘perceptual organisation of the environment’ rather than any objective facts about them.
A person develops an identification (positive or negative, of some varying intensity) towards a political party which is typically acquired as the result of childhood/adolescence socialisation, which tend to be very stable throughout life.
Anchor in the minds of citizens, a lens through which citizens see major issues of the day. Helps them overcome causal problems, such as determining responsibility of past actions and probability of future action.
What is the Downsian model?
Voters choose the point on the ideological spectrum that generates the most utility for them. For example, they assess the difference in utility that they will get if they vote for the incumbent or the government. There are more votes to be had at the centre, if we assume that people’s ideological preferences are normally distributed. Thus parties converge on the median voter.
What is the sociotropic criticism of Downs?
People do not vote based on which party will produce the most utility for them. Instead, they vote based on their perception of which party will produce the most utility for the aggregate of people in the country. They are not egocentric, as Downs initially assumed, they are sociotropic, they care about the country as a whole, rather than themselves.
How did Stokes criticise the Downsian model?
Stokes argued that the issues which matter most are the ones where there is the most agreement, e.g. peace, probity and prosperity. He also criticised the one-dimensionality of the model. People do not tend to disagree about goals. Instead they debate which party, party leader and policies are best placed to deliver these goals. Voters differentiate leaders based on qualities such as trustworthiness or or ability, and symbols of success or failure.
How might a Downsian model combine aspects of a Stokesian model?
People do not disagree much on their fundamental goals, at a very general level, e.g. prosperity. However, they have ideological dispositions which affect which policies they think will deliver these goals. E.g. someone might tend to think that socialism will deliver prosperity, while another thinks that capitalism will deliver prosperity better. Therefore, the winning party will most often be around the median voter. However, there are other factors that might affect which party/leader is thought to deliver on valence issues. This means that voters will not always side with the party that fits their ideology. E.g. someone with very right-wing economic views may not vote for Liz Truss over concerns for her competence and ability to carry out the job and deliver prosperity. Ideologies make it more likely that voters will perceive the parties which share their ideologies as best placed to deliver on the valence issues, but not necessarily so.
To what extent do voters rely on the past, or forecast for the future?
Downs argued that voters will rely heavily on information about incumbents while they were in office.
However, rational choice theorists argue that voters forecast based on past and present information to maximise utility.
What is the importance of political leaders?
(two dimensions that are judged by voters)
British elections have become more candidate-centred than party-centred, e.g. television debates, in person provocative interviews. Increasing personalisation of politics.
Voters may resort to comparing leaders as a mental heuristic if an issue is complicated.
Competence and responsiveness to voters’ preferences. Margaret Thatcher was viewed to be high on competence but low on responsiveness.
What is issue salience, and how might it explain variations between elections?
Parties benefit when their issues become salient on the agenda, e.g. healthcare for centre-left parties, crime/ law and order for centre-right parties. Voters will not necessarily punish the governing party, if they are perceived to care about the salient issue.
However, economy tends to be the most important issue in any given election.
What is the main social cleavage that is highlighted by sociological theories?
Social class. Definitely has some historical accuracy.
What is a weakness of sociological theories?
Politics and economics moves faster than society. Sociological models struggle to deal with short and medium term changes. Instead, more attention should be given to other factors such as ‘issue linkages, party leader images, economic conditions, and election campaigns.’
What is clientelism?
Clientelism involves an exchange between patrons (politicians running for office) and small groups of citizens or individuals. The latter receive a target benefit or exemption from costs, contingent on their contribution to the patrons.
Seen e.g. in Latin America, more generally in emerging economies.
What were the two main axis that Polish politics operated on after the fall of communism in 1991?
Liberal-conservative referring to values particularly religious values. Left-right economic dimension.
What was the effect of class on voting in Poland, once certain variables are controlled for?
When controlling for (gender, education, age, geographic region), the effect of class on voting disappears.
What is the impact of religion in Polish politics?
Social democrats are more likely to be chosen by those who do not go to church.
Agrarian and Christian democratic parties are more likely to be chosen by church-goers.
All liberal and right parties are more likely to be chosen by religious people.
What is the main cleavage in Polish politics?
Polish parties initially attempted to differentiate themselves along economic lines, though due to rising inequality, consensus emerged on the economic left. Instead, socio-cultural issues became the main cleavage in Polish politics.
What is the freezing hypothesis?
Martin Lipset and Stein Rokkan. They argued that ‘the party systems of the 1960s reflect, with few but significant exceptions, the cleavage structures of the 1920s’.
Only parties that represented sides of these cleavages would be able to survive. Over time, voters developed strong attachments to these parties via socialisation.
What are some examples of cleavages that froze?
The cleavage between those who owned capital and those who supplied their labour led to the formation of the Labour Party and Conservative Party.
The cleavage between agricultural and urban workers.
The cleavage between the centre and the periphery, e.g. separatist movements such as Catalan Independence Movement, SNP in Scotland
The cleavage between those who want separation between church and state and those who want a fusion.
The first has weakened, the second is much weaker due to a far less agricultural workers now than previously, the third is strong but only in certain regions, the fourth is almost non-existent. (UK)
How did Sartori criticise the freezing hypothesis?
Sartori argued that the causal link runs in the other direction, political parties have inspired and fuelled the politicisation of these cleavages.
What is dealignment?
Dealignment: socio-structural anchoring of electoral behaviour is weakening. Behaviour should gradually become less predestined and more influenced by factors closer to the election, thus less predictable.
What are the arguments/explanations for dealignment?
Modernisation brought with it better and wider educational opportunities, alongside better provision and access to the media, people felt empowered to make more individual choices, rather than based on socialisation. This cognitive mobilisation is a necessary but not sufficient condition for dealignment.
It is required that it is accompanied by weakening of collective identities. There is now greater heterogeneity in life experiences. Class distinctions have been blurred. Decline of the traditional working class, growth in low status white collar employment, rising incomes generally.
Empirical evidence supports dealignment. Social groups explanatory power was 30% in the 1960s to 10% in the 1980s.
What is the realignment theory?
Social cleavages are not disappearing, instead new ones have developed. Voters are realigning around these new cleavages.
What is the new cleavage that has supposedly developed?
Between the winners and losers of globalisation. Globalisation has brought with it three distinct societal changes- economic competition, increasing migration and political integration.
Voting for parties of the new left is now associated with highly educated middle class professionals, while voting for the Radical Right is mainly associated with the uneducated working class.
How can the voting system be seen to increase electoral volatility?
A majoritarian voting system such as First Past the Post can force the parties onto a uni-dimensional space and reduce the number of parties. This can lead to voters’ demanding combinations of policies that are not on offer. Thus varying issue salience can lead to high levels of electoral volatility. E.g. voters may demand hostility to immigration and left-wing economic policies. If immigration is particularly salient, they might vote Reform, whereas if the economy is particularly salient, they might vote Labour.
