Election statistics Flashcards

1
Q

What were the techniques used in the Conservative 1979 manifesto?

A
  • Included ‘broad strokes’ which focused generally on the economy and reducing the power of trade unions.
  • Many points linked to ideas of a meritocracy and family life.
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2
Q

What were techniques used by Thatcher’s campaign in 1979?

A
  • Saw a turn towards populism/ the appeal of the working class.
  • Thatcher’s campaign revolved around cultivating a pristine image and highlighting the failures of Labour under Callaghan.
  • The campaign was managed by her publicity director who employed the advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi. They polished Thatcher’s public image by employing a voice coach to soften her speech. She was to appear friendly, the image of ‘the housewife’s friend’ which increased her chances with the electoral demographic of working and middle-class housewives.
  • ‘Photo ops’ for the media were arranged, and Thatcher was seen tea-tasting and holding a calf.
  • Saatchi & Saatchi’s ‘Labour isn’t working’ advertising campaign launched in 1978 to highlight the weaknesses of the Labour gov and its negative impact on the economy.
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3
Q

What was the media’s influence in 1979?

A
  • The media made much of Callaghan’s apparent obliviousness to the Winter of Discontent, with The Sun newspaper publishing the famous headline ‘Crisis? What crisis?’.
  • The campaign was managed by her publicity director and former TV producer Reece, who employed the advertising agency Saatchi & Saatchi.
  • ‘Photo ops’ for the media were arranged, and Thatcher was seen tea-tasting and holding a calf.
  • Saatchi & Saatchi’s ‘Labour isn’t working’ advertising campaign launched in 1978 to highlight the weaknesses of the Labour gov and its negative impact on the economy.
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4
Q

What was the wider political context of the 1979 general election?

A
  • Labour won the 2nd election of 1974 with a majority of 3 seats.
  • They formed a pact with the Liberal Party in 1977, known as the Lib-Lab pact. When this fell through in 1978, Labour turned to the support of the SNP.
  • In March 1979, a ref was held on the 1978 Scotland Act to gauge whether there was sufficient public support for devolution. The results were inconclusive, leading the gov to repeal the Act.
  • This fared badly with SNP, leading to a Vote of No Confidence.
  • Both the Liberal Party and the SNP voted against him, and Callaghan lost the motion by one vote.
  • He was forced to call an election, setting the date in May 1979. According to a Gallup poll, the Cons reached a 20% lead over Labour by the end of the Winter of Discontent in Feb 1979.
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5
Q

What was the Winter of Discontent?

A

In the winter of 1978–79, a wave of strikes erupted across Britain as workers rejected the Labour government’s attempt to impose wage limits in the face of rising inflation.

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6
Q

What was the turnout of the 1979 election?

A

76%

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7
Q

What was the % swing from Labour to Conservatives in 1979?

A

5%

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8
Q

What % of the vote did the liberal democrats get in 1979?

A

14%

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9
Q

What seat majority did Labour gain in 1997?

A

179, gained 145

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10
Q

What % of men and women voted Labour in 1997?

A

Women- 44%
Men- 45%

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11
Q

What points relate to age from the 1997 election?

A
  • Labour gained more votes than the Conservatives in every age group.
  • Those aged 55+ were most likely to vote Conservative.
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12
Q

Where did Labour gain the highest proportion of votes regionally in 1997?

A

The North (62%)

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13
Q

Where did the Conservatives gain the highest proportion of votes regionally in 1997?

A

Southeast (41%)

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14
Q

What % of non-white voters voted Labour in 1997?

A

70%

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15
Q

What was the wider political context of the 1997 election?

A
  • The Conservatives had been in power for 18 years. People had become increasingly disillusioned with the party & began to distrust them, whilst Lab’s modernisation & reforms gained popularity.
  • During 80s, the policies of Thatcher had divided the party.
  • Also increasingly split into pro-Europeans & eurosceptics severely weakening the party.
  • Britain experienced a recession at the beginning of both the 80s & 90s.
  • Thatcher’s policies increased unemployment whilst tackling inflation.
  • Economic hardship made the Cons unpopular.
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16
Q

What points were made on the 1997 Conservative manifesto, and why were they ineffective?

A
  • Con campaign: ‘You can only be sure with the Conservatives.’ This was ineffectual against a background of Thatcherism, economic decline & scandals.
  • Major promised a return to traditional values such as a tax break for married couples when one partner stayed at home. By 1997 these ideas were outdated.
  • Promised to keep Europe at arm’s length but did not have much credibility due to division over Europe.
  • Attacked Labour’s plans for devolution, warning that it would break up the union. This alienated potential voters in Scotland & Wales who supported devolution.
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17
Q

What were the elements of the 1997 labour campaign?

A
  • ‘New Labour, New Life for Britain’ which promoted Labour’s new centrist approach.
  • The campaign focused on middle & lower-middle classes, which had become a large majority, as well as maintaining traditional working-class support. Was very effective as the party gained more votes than the Cons in every age, gender, and ethnic group and most regions of the UK.
  • Spin doctors which judged the public mood & present gov policies in a favourable light.
  • Blair promised that there would be no income tax rises & VAT would be cut and explained how this would be achieved.
  • Labour vowed to reduce the size of infant school classes & cut waiting times for the NHS.
  • Labour promised to tackle crime rates, especially among young people. This helped to entice middle-class voters.
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18
Q

What was the impact of leaders in 1997?

A
  • Major was a likeable, but bland & uninspiring.
  • Blair had a great impression on the British public. He was younger, and captured the public’s attention.
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19
Q

What was the turnout in 2015 and 2019?

A
  • 2015- 66%
  • 2019- 67%
20
Q

What % of the vote did UKIP get in 2015?

A

13%

21
Q

What % of the vote did the Conservatives get in 2015?

A

37%

22
Q

What were the techniques used by the Conservative party in 2015?

A
  • Cons distributed detailed surveys to voters in marginal seats, and merged this data with info from electoral rolls and commercial market research to produce a comprehensive picture of who might be persuaded to vote Conservative.
  • The party’s campaign director laid out a plan known as the 40/40 strategy. The party would focus single-mindedly on holding 40 marginal seats and winning another 40.
23
Q

How much did SNP and the Liberal democrats spend in 2015?

A
  • SNP: £1.5million
  • Lib Dems: £3million
24
Q

What was the impact of Opinion polls in 2015?

A
  • Opinion polls predicted a close result but still underestimated cons.
  • In con campaigns it promoted fear in the public of another coalition.
25
Q

What was the wider political context of the 2015 election?

A
  • The 2007–2008 financial crisis/Global Financial Crisis, was a severe worldwide economic crisis.
  • Was the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression.
  • Many of the public distrusted the Labour party.
26
Q

What was the impact of leaders in 2015?

A
  • Miliband was perceived as a weak leader.
  • In his speech at the Labour party conference in 2014, he forgotten to discuss the proposal Cameron had made that morning to join the US bombing of Isis in Iraq.
  • He also fell off the stage at the final televised debate in 2015.
  • His polling was poor compared to Cameron, who came across as stronger.
27
Q

What were features of the Conservative manifesto 2015?

A
  • Con manifesto: ‘Party of working people’.
  • Extension of the right-to-buy scheme to housing association tenants in England.
  • Doubling free childcare allowance for 3 & 4 -year-olds to 30 hrs.
  • Increasing the inheritance tax threshold on family homes to £1m by 2017.
  • An extra £8bn a year for the NHS by 2020.
  • An EU referendum by 2017.
28
Q

What were features of the Labour manifesto in 2015?

A
  • Freeze energy bills & reducing tuition fees to £6,000.
  • Raising the minimum wage.
  • Introducing a new National Primary Childcare Service, guaranteeing childcare from 08:00 to 18:00.
  • No increase to the basic or higher rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT.
29
Q

What groups did Labour have a clear lead among in 2015?

A
  • 18-34s
  • DE voters
  • Private and social renters
  • BME voters
30
Q

What age group were the conservatives most successful in 2015?

A

Those aged 65+

31
Q

What social group did the Conservatives gain a 3 point swing from Labour in 2015?

A

ABs

32
Q

What was the political context of 2019?

A
  • In Jan 2019, May’s gov was defeated in the HofC by a margin of 230 votes in the first ‘meaningful vote’ on her deal to leave the EU.
  • It was the largest majority against a UK gov in history.
  • May resigned and an election was called.
  • The general election was heavily emphasised as a way to ‘get Brexit done’, encouraging a large con majority to quicken the process.
33
Q

What did YouGov say about the relationship between aging and voting Conservative in 2019?

A

Estimated that the chances of someone voting Conservative increased by around 9 points with every 10 years of age.

34
Q

What was the point lead among 18-24 year olds for Labour in 2019?

A

43 points

35
Q

What % of seats in the UK’s core cities were won by Labour in 2019?

A

71%

36
Q

What do the UK’s ‘core cities’ tend to have?

A
  • Lower home ownership.
  • Larger young and BME populations.
37
Q

What % of BME voters voted Labour in 2019?

A

64%

38
Q

What % of voter share did Labour gain among all social grades in 2019?

A

33%

39
Q

What % of men and women voted Conservative in 2019?

A
  • men: 46%
  • women: 44%
40
Q

What statistics demonstrate that class was not significant in 2019?

A
  • Conservatives comfortably outperformed Labour across all social grades.
  • Conservatives did better amongst C2DE voters (48%) than ABC1 voters (43%)
41
Q

What % of those who did not hold a degree vote conservative in 2019?

A

58%

42
Q

What were points made on the 2019 Conservative manifesto?

A
  • Extra funding for NHS, with 50,000 more nurses & 50mil more GP surgery appointments a year.
  • 20,000 more police and tougher sentencing for criminals.
  • Reaching Net Zero by 2050 with investment in clean energy solutions & green infrastructure to reduce carbon emissions/ pollution.
  • “Getting Brexit done. Investing in our public services and infrastructure. Supporting workers and families. Strengthening the Union. Unleashing Britain’s potential.”
43
Q

What were some points made on the Labour manifesto 2019?

A
  • Increase health budget by 4.3% (at the top end of what health think tanks and analysts have been calling for. )
  • Hold a second ref on Brexit.
  • Raise minimum wage to £10.
  • Stop pension age rises.
  • Introduce a National Care Service (devolved, only applies to England),
  • Bring forward net-zero targets to within 2030s.
  • Nationalise key industries.
  • Abolish private schools’ charitable status and tuition fees (education devolved, only apply to England).
  • Free bus travel for under 25s. (Transport partly devolved, apply to England only.)
44
Q

Where was the Conservative voter share at its highest in 2019?

A

East of England (57%)

45
Q

Where was the Labour voter share at its highest in 2019?

A

London (48%)