Elections And Referendums Flashcards

(50 cards)

1
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Elections key points:

A

Key points
✚ Britain uses the first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system in general elections, but it has significant weaknesses.
✚ Alternative voting systems are used in other elections across the UK, with mixed results.
✚ Voting behaviour in general elections is influenced by a wide range of different factors.
✚ Referendums have been used more frequently since 1998, though debates continue as to their impact on democracy.

KEY CONCEPTS:

Participation: The various ways in which people can get involved in the political process, ranging in scale from standing for elected office to signing an e-petition. The most central form of participation is voting in elections.

Manifesto: The set of policies a political party promises to implement if elected to office.

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2
Q

What are the main criteria’s used to analyse different electoral systems:

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• Proportionality and a fair result: the proportion of seats won should correspond to the overall percentage of the vote. A party gaining 15% of the vote should therefore ideally have 15% of MPs.

• Vote value: all votes are equally important in determining the final outcome of an election, none are ‘wasted’. No voter should feel that their vote is pointless and counts for nothing.
• Promoting participation and turnout: electoral systems should incentivise high levels of turnout and participation. This is most likely when voters feel that casting their ballot could affect the final result.
• Strong and accountable government: voters should feel not only that any government is able to deliver its promises, but also that they can directly reward or punish a prime minister and their party based on their record in office.

• Local links: MPs represent a specific region or area, enabling voters to bring grievances and concerns directly to ‘their’ elected representative.

• Power of the party: many voters might want an electoral system that allows them to choose between different candidates from the same party, preventing too much power being given to the central party bureaucracy and leadership.

• Party choice and representation: the electoral system should encourage and enable a broad range of parties to stand in elections.

• Comprehensibility and transparency: the system is easy for the public to understand and produces clear results. There should not be dubious backstairs post-election deals between the parties.

no one system scores highly in every category. Equally, all the systems have strengths in at least one area. In many cases, a strength in one area, such as the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system usually generating strong majority governments, impacts negatively on another area, for example proportionality. With FPTP, no single political party has won more than 50% of the vote in a UK general election since 1945 — the closest was 1955, when the Conservatives won 49.7% of the overall vote.

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3
Q

Explain the debate over electoral reform

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The Debate Over Electoral Reform in the UK

Make Votes Matter and Support for Reform

In 2015, the cross-party pressure group Make Votes Matter was formed to campaign for a proportional electoral system in UK general elections. By 2019, supporters included:
• The Liberal Democrats, Green Party, SNP, Brexit Party, Plaid Cymru, and the Electoral Reform Society.
• A few individuals from Labour and the Conservatives.

Political Self-Interest in Electoral Reform

Support for reform is partly driven by democratic principles but also by political self-interest:
• FPTP disadvantages smaller parties like the Liberal Democrats, Green Party, and Brexit Party.
• SNP and Plaid Cymru are not disadvantaged but operate in a Westminster system controlled by Labour or Conservatives, limiting their influence.
• Labour and Conservatives largely oppose reform, as proportional representation (PR) would likely deny them majority governments.

Impact of Electoral Systems on Government Formation
• Proportional systems often result in permanent coalition governments.
• This is seen in other countries using PR and in the UK’s devolved assemblies.

Effects on Voting Behaviour
• Under FPTP, voters may feel their preferred candidate has no chance, leading to:
• Tactical voting (choosing the least-worst electable candidate).
• Lower turnout due to abstention.
• Proportional systems can encourage greater support for smaller parties.
• Example: In European elections (since 1999), UKIP and the Brexit Party performed better than in general elections.
• This may be due to both increased viability of election and protest voting.

Key Debates on Electoral Reform
1. What aspects of electoral systems matter most?
2. Would reform help or hinder certain parties?
3. How would reform impact voter behaviour?
4. Is there enough public enthusiasm for change?
5. If reform happens, what system should replace FPTP?

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4
Q

The main electoral systems used in the UK, and their advantages and disadvantages

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You only need to study two electoral systems: (including FPTP) in detail, but it is useful to know how the other systems operate, and their benefits and disadvantages.

Several types of electoral systems are used in the UK:
1. First-past-the-post (FPTP): used in general elections and English local elections
2. Party list proportional representation (List PR) or D’Hondt system: used in European elections
3. Additional member system (AMS): used in the Scottish and Welsh parliaments
4. Single transferable vote (STV): used in the Northern Ireland Assembly and Scottish local council elections
5. Alternative vote (AV): used in the election of parliamentary select committee chairs

the results of the 2019 general election, show how different electoral systems can produce contrasting outcomes in terms of the number of MPs elected from the same result

  1. only FPTP would have produced a government with an overall Commons majority
  2. along with the Conservatives, the SNP would also have gained fewer MPs using alternative voting systems
  3. the Liberal Democrats would benefit most from electoral reform
  4. the smaller parties, such as the Green Party and the Brexit Party, would fare best under AMS compared with the other alternative electoral systems, although the Brexit Party would do almost as well under List PR
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5
Q

How does the First Past the Post (FPTP) electoral system operate in UK general elections?

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FPTP is a majoritarian electoral system in which the candidate with the most votes in a single-member constituency wins the seat. All other candidates, regardless of how close they came, receive no representation. The UK is divided into 650 such constituencies, each returning one MP, meaning a party can achieve a high national vote share but win few or no seats if their support is not geographically concentrated.

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6
Q

What does the 2019 general election result in Great Grimsby reveal about the nature of FPTP?

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In Great Grimsby (2019), Lia Nici (Conservative) won with 18,150 votes, while Labour’s Melanie Onn came second with 10,819. The Conservative majority was 7,331 votes. Despite significant votes for other candidates — Brexit Party (2,378), Lib Dems (1,070), Greens (514), and an Independent (156) — only the winning party secured representation, highlighting FPTP’s disproportionality and exclusion of minority views within constituencies.

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7
Q

What does the outcome in Great Grimsby suggest about representativeness under FPTP?

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Although the Conservative candidate secured a plurality, over 15,000 constituents voted for losing candidates, whose views are not reflected in Parliament. This shows how FPTP can distort representation, allowing a party to win a seat without majority support, and marginalising smaller parties even when they attract notable local backing.

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8
Q

How does FPTP influence electoral strategy and outcomes in constituencies like Great Grimsby?

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FPTP incentivises tactical voting and reinforces a two-party dominance, as voters may back the most viable contender to block an undesired outcome. In Great Grimsby, smaller parties like the Lib Dems and Greens gained votes, but their impact was negligible under FPTP — discouraging future support and limiting voter choice in practice.

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9
Q

How does the List Proportional Representation system (List PR) operate?

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List PR divides the country into larger multi-member constituencies, each electing several MPs who reflect the overall party vote share. Instead of voting for individual candidates, voters choose a party, and seats are allocated in proportion to the votes each party receives. Parties create ranked lists of candidates; those highest on the list — usually senior party figures — are elected first.

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10
Q

How do constituencies differ between List PR and First Past the Post?

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FPTP divides the UK into 650 single-member constituencies, each electing one MP. In contrast, List PR uses fewer, larger regional constituencies — e.g. 26 regions each electing around 25 MPs — allowing for greater proportionality and multi-party representation in each area.

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11
Q

How are seats allocated under List PR using the D’Hondt system?

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The D’Hondt system allocates seats in successive rounds. In each round, a party’s total vote is divided by the number of seats it has already won + 1. The party with the highest resulting figure wins the next seat. This continues until all seats are filled, ensuring a proportional distribution of representation based on total votes.

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12
Q

Where and when has List PR been used in the UK?

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List PR was used for European Parliament elections in the UK (except Northern Ireland). For example, in 2019, the UK was divided into 11 large regions, such as South East England, each electing between 3 and 10 MEPs based on party vote share, using the D’Hondt method.

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13
Q

What kind of representation does List PR encourage?

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List PR encourages proportional, multi-party representation, as seats are distributed in line with vote share. This system reduces the number of wasted votes, enables smaller parties to gain seats more easily, and more accurately reflects electoral diversity within a region.

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14
Q

What is one common criticism of the List PR system?

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One drawback is that voters have little influence over individual candidates, as parties rank them in advance — often ensuring party elites are guaranteed seats. This can reduce voter choice and accountability compared to constituency-based systems like FPTP.

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15
Q

What is the Additional Member System (AMS) and how does it function?

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AMS is a hybrid electoral system, combining FPTP and List PR. Voters cast two votes: one for a constituency candidate (FPTP) and one for a party list in a larger region (PR). Constituency seats are filled on a winner-takes-all basis, while regional seats are allocated proportionally using party lists to “top up” underrepresented parties — making overall results more reflective of vote share.

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16
Q

Where is AMS used in the UK and how are seats distributed?

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AMS is used in elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Parliament, and London Assembly. In Scotland, for example, 73 MSPs are elected via FPTP and 56 via regional list PR, across 8 regions. This mixed structure aims to combine local representation with national proportionality.

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17
Q

What does the 2016 Scottish Parliament election in the Lothians region show about AMS?

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In Lothians, 9 constituency MSPs were elected by FPTP: SNP won 6, and 3 other parties won 1 each. However, the regional list vote showed SNP at 38%, Conservatives at 24%, Labour at 21%, Greens at 11%, and Lib Dems at 6%. The 7 additional MSPs were allocated to the underrepresented parties, including 3 Conservatives, 2 Labour, and 2 Greens. SNP received no list MSPs, as their constituency dominance already matched their overall vote share. This created a more proportional outcome.

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18
Q

How does AMS improve representational fairness compared to FPTP?

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AMS helps to correct distortions caused by FPTP, allowing parties that are underrepresented in constituencies to gain seats via the regional list. This reduces wasted votes, improves party diversity, and strengthens legitimacy by ensuring the overall seat distribution better reflects the popular vote.

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19
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How does AMS affect voter behaviour and party strategy?

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AMS gives voters two distinct choices: one for a local representative and one for a preferred party overall, which can encourage split-ticket voting (e.g., backing a local SNP candidate while supporting Greens on the list). For parties, this system promotes coalition-building and strategic alliances, as majorities are rare and minor parties can influence power-sharing.

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20
Q

What are common criticisms of AMS despite its proportional elements?

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Critics argue that AMS can create two classes of representatives — constituency and list — with unclear accountability. It may also result in coalition governments, which some view as less decisive. Additionally, the party control over regional lists can weaken the link between voters and list MSPs.

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21
Q

How does the Single Transferable Vote (STV) system operate?

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STV uses multi-member constituencies, where voters rank candidates by preference. A quota is calculated using the total votes and number of seats. Candidates reaching the quota on first preferences are elected. Surplus votes are redistributed proportionally according to second preferences. If no one reaches the quota, the lowest-ranked candidate is eliminated and their votes transferred. This continues until all seats are filled.

22
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Where is STV used in the UK?

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STV is used in European Parliament elections in Northern Ireland and Scottish local council elections. It is particularly suited to diverse or divided societies because it promotes broad representation and minimises wasted votes.

23
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What does the 2019 Northern Ireland European election show about how STV operates?

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In 2019, a quota of 143,112 was needed to win one of three MEP seats.
• Diane Dodds (DUP) was elected on count 3
• Martina Anderson (Sinn Féin) and Naomi Long (Alliance) were elected on count 5
• Votes were transferred in multiple rounds
• Five candidates were eliminated after the first count, another after the second, illustrating the multi-round, preference-based nature of STV.

24
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How does STV promote proportionality and fair outcomes?

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STV ensures proportional representation by transferring surplus and eliminated votes, allowing minor parties and independents a fair chance at election. In 2019, three different parties — DUP, Sinn Féin, and Alliance — won one seat each, reflecting the pluralistic political landscape of Northern Ireland.

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What are the benefits of STV in terms of voter choice and representation?
STV allows voters to rank multiple candidates, not just pick one, increasing voter engagement and expression. It encourages candidates to appeal to broader audiences for lower-preference votes, and can help reduce adversarial politics in divided societies like Northern Ireland.
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What are the limitations or challenges associated with STV?
STV is complex to count, requiring multiple rounds and transfers, which can be time-consuming and hard for voters to follow. Additionally, it can lead to unclear electoral outcomes in close contests, and the link between individual representatives and specific local areas may be weaker than under FPTP or AMS.
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How does the Alternative Vote (AV) system operate?
AV uses preferential voting in single-member constituencies. Voters rank candidates numerically. If no candidate has over 50% in the first round, the least popular is eliminated, and their votes are redistributed according to second preferences. This continues until one candidate secures an absolute majority (50%+). Unlike STV, no quota is used.
28
Where is AV used in the UK, and what happened in the 2011 referendum?
AV is currently used to elect chairs of parliamentary select committees, such as the Defence Select Committee in 2020. In the 2011 national referendum, AV was proposed to replace FPTP for Westminster elections but was overwhelmingly rejected — with 67.9% voting against and only 32.1% in favour.
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How did the 2020 Defence Select Committee election demonstrate AV in action?
• No candidate reached 50% in the first round (Tobias Ellwood had 243 of 562 votes). • Candidates were eliminated in stages: Gray, Holloway, then Courts. • Votes were redistributed based on preferences. • Ellwood was elected on the fourth round with 296 votes, crossing the 282 threshold. This shows how AV ensures the winner has majority support through preferences.
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What are the key advantages of AV?
AV ensures the winning candidate has majority support, at least through second/third preferences, and reduces the impact of tactical voting. It encourages positive campaigning, as candidates seek to be second choices too. It can also be more representative in fragmented contests than FPTP.
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What are the criticisms of AV?
AV can be complex for voters, especially in close contests, and may still produce disproportional results at a national level since it operates in single-member constituencies. Critics argue it can amplify centrist candidates at the expense of clear majorities and does not guarantee true proportionality like STV or List PR.
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What distinguishes AV from FPTP?
FPTP only requires a plurality to win — a candidate can win with under 50%. AV demands an absolute majority via transfers. This makes AV more representative in single-seat elections, but still less proportional than systems like STV or AMS, especially when scaled nationally.
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Compare how proportional and fair outcomes are under FPTP, List PR, AMS, STV, and AV.
• First Past the Post (FPTP) is the least proportional system. It often over-rewards the leading party (e.g. 2019: Conservatives won 77 more seats than their vote share justified; Greens won 2.7% of the vote but just 0.2% of seats). FPTP can even produce governments with fewer votes, as in 1951 and Feb 1974. A ‘winner’s bonus’ effect is common (e.g. 1997: Labour won 63% of seats with 43% of the vote). • List Proportional Representation (List PR) is the most proportional system. Seats match votes closely (e.g. 2019 EU election: Brexit Party won 39% of votes and 40% of seats). It offers fair representation for small parties, eliminating distortions seen under FPTP. • Additional Member System (AMS) offers semi-proportionality. In the 2016 Lothians region, Scottish Conservatives won 25% of seats (4/16) with 24% of the vote. The Scottish Greens, with 11% of the vote but no constituency wins, still secured 2 seats, showing the system fairly ‘tops up’ underrepresented parties. • Single Transferable Vote (STV) is highly proportional, accurately reflecting overall vote shares. It allows voters to rank preferences and avoids tactical voting or vote-splitting. In 2019 Northern Ireland EU elections, seats were allocated after multiple counts to ensure outcomes matched voter support. Advocates like the Electoral Reform Society highlight STV as best for fairness. • Alternative Vote (AV) is not a proportional system. A 2017 study showed AV would have delivered less proportional outcomes than FPTP, penalising smaller parties like the Lib Dems and nationalists, while benefiting Labour. However, AV does ensure that each MP has majority support — unlike FPTP, where 229 MPs in 2019 were elected with less than 50% of the vote. Summary ranking (most to least proportional): 1. List PR 2. STV 3. AMS 4. FPTP 5. AV
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How do the UK’s electoral systems differ in terms of how equally they value each vote?
• First Past the Post (FPTP) performs worst in vote value. Many votes are ‘wasted’, especially in safe seats where the outcome is predictable. Votes for smaller parties rarely translate into seats — e.g. in 2019, the Brexit Party won 644,257 votes but no MPs. FPTP is biased toward the main parties and those with geographically concentrated support like the SNP, making voters in swing areas more influential than others. • List PR significantly reduces wasted votes. Because seats match vote share more closely, minor parties have a fairer chance. However, since seats are still allocated by region, very small parties (e.g. 1–5% nationally) might still fail to gain representation unless their support is concentrated. • Additional Member System (AMS) improves vote value compared to FPTP. Even if a party fails in the constituency vote, it can gain regional seats — as seen with the Scottish Greens, who won 2 MSPs through the list vote despite no constituency wins. However, like List PR, regional thresholds mean very small parties may still struggle. • Single Transferable Vote (STV) is very effective in valuing every vote. Through preferential voting, even if a voter’s first choice is eliminated, their next preferences still influence the outcome. This minimises wasted votes and encourages honest voting rather than tactical choices. • Alternative Vote (AV) also minimises wasted votes by redistributing preferences until a candidate receives majority support. Voters can back minor parties without fear, since their vote will still count in later rounds. This enhances vote effectiveness and reduces the need for tactical voting. Summary ranking (most to least equal vote value): 1. STV 2. AV 3. List PR 4. AMS 5. FPTP
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How do different electoral systems promote voter participation and turnout?
• First Past the Post (FPTP): Critics argue that FPTP discourages participation, especially for supporters of smaller parties, because their votes are likely wasted. However, turnout in general elections remains relatively steady: • 2010 — 65.1% • 2015 — 66.2% • 2017 — 68.8% • 2019 — 67.3% Many factors affect turnout, including competitive races, issues, and personalities, meaning FPTP’s effect on turnout is complex. • List PR: In theory, List PR should boost turnout as fewer votes are wasted, encouraging participation from voters of smaller parties. However, turnout for European elections (where List PR was used) was historically low, at just 36.9% in 2019. This lower turnout may be more about voter interest in European politics than the system itself. For general elections, turnout could be higher with List PR. • Additional Member System (AMS): AMS does not show a clear impact on turnout. For example, Welsh turnout in the 2019 general election (67%) was higher than for AMS elections like the 2016 Welsh Assembly elections (45%). This difference likely reflects the relative importance of each election rather than the system used. AMS doesn’t provide strong evidence for increased turnout. • Single Transferable Vote (STV): STV typically maintains high turnout in places like Northern Ireland, where 45% turnout for the 2019 European elections was higher than the rest of the UK. However, Northern Ireland traditionally has high turnout overall, so it’s hard to attribute this to STV alone. • Alternative Vote (AV): The absence of wasted votes in AV should, in theory, encourage participation. However, since AV has not been used in public elections (apart from select committees), it’s speculative whether it boosts turnout. No European countries currently use AV for national elections, so evidence is limited. Summary ranking of systems by impact on turnout (most to least): 1. STV (strong participation in regions with high turnout, e.g. Northern Ireland) 2. FPTP (steady turnout despite some discouragement) 3. List PR (potentially increases turnout, but historically low in European elections) 4. AV (speculative impact) 5. AMS (no clear evidence of increased turnout)
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How do different electoral systems impact the strength and accountability of government?
• First Past the Post (FPTP): FPTP is known for producing strong, single-party governments with clear mandates. From 1979 to 2010, both the Conservatives and Labour enjoyed long periods of majority rule. In 2019, the Tories achieved a decisive victory with a clear majority, restoring the traditional FPTP outcome. However, there have been exceptions like 2010, 2017, and 1974 where FPTP resulted in a hung parliament, leading to coalition governments. While FPTP promotes strong government, it raises the debate of whether single-party rule is always preferable, or if coalition governments, which often involve compromises, are better. • List PR: List PR tends to produce coalition governments where no single party has an overall majority. For instance, in the 2019 European elections, the Brexit Party won just 29 out of 73 seats, despite winning a large portion of the vote. This leads to post-election coalitions, which can make it harder to punish or reward parties. It also gives smaller parties disproportionate power, often making them kingmakers. Some argue that coalition government with political compromises is preferable to single-party rule. • Additional Member System (AMS): AMS, like List PR, typically leads to minority governments. In Scotland, the SNP has dominated elections but has only once secured a majority. AMS produces multiparty government, but this does not lead to constant instability or early elections in either Scotland or Wales. While minority governments are common, political stability is often maintained. • Single Transferable Vote (STV): Like other proportional systems, STV produces coalition or multiparty governments. This system results in policy compromises and coalition agreements. STV supporters argue that these compromises are worth it for more proportional and fairer voting. They point out that since 1945, no single party in the UK has won more than 50% of the total vote, implying the UK has never had a single-party government based on public votes. • Alternative Vote (AV): AV is most likely to produce a single-party government compared to other alternatives to FPTP. Many second preference votes tend to go to the major parties, particularly if voters initially support minor parties or independents. Therefore, AV increases the chance of a single-party government, though this outcome is not guaranteed. Summary ranking by system’s impact on strong and accountable government: 1. FPTP (produces strong, single-party governments) 2. AV (more likely to lead to single-party governments) 3. AMS (produces minority governments, but stable) 4. STV (usually results in coalition or multiparty government) 5. List PR (typically leads to coalition governments, potential for small parties to hold disproportionate power)
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How do different electoral systems impact the local link between constituents and their representatives?
• First Past the Post (FPTP): FPTP scores highly for local links as each constituency elects its own MP who represents all voters in that area. MPs are directly accountable to their local electorate and often maintain a high profile within their constituency. The system fosters a strong sense of local representation. • List PR: List PR weakens local links. Even if the country is divided into regions, representatives serve larger populations, often in the hundreds of thousands. This reduces the personal connection between the voter and their representative. Voters may be more likely to approach MPs from their favoured party rather than a specific individual representing their area. • Additional Member System (AMS): AMS partially retains local links through constituency members who are directly elected. However, it creates a two-tier system: those elected for a specific constituency and those elected via regional lists. The regional representatives lack a direct mandate from voters, leading to potential confusion about who to approach for local issues. • Single Transferable Vote (STV): STV improves local links as elected members represent geographical areas. However, these areas are generally larger than those under FPTP, sometimes five times the size of current Westminster constituencies. Voters can approach a range of representatives, which can be an advantage, though the larger constituency size may reduce the direct impact of a single representative. • Alternative Vote (AV): AV retains single-member constituencies, similar to FPTP, meaning there is a clear local link between an MP and their constituents. Voters have one representative who is responsible for addressing local concerns, fostering direct accountability and a strong connection between the elected MP and their area. Summary ranking by system’s impact on local links: 1. FPTP (strongest local link with direct accountability) 2. AV (clear local link with single-member constituencies) 3. STV (local representation but with larger constituencies) 4. AMS (local link for constituency members, but creates two-tier system) 5. List PR (weakest local link due to large regions and lack of personal representation)
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How does the power of the party differ in various UK electoral systems?
• First Past the Post (FPTP): FPTP limits party control over candidate selection, as candidates are chosen locally by the party membership, though they must be centrally approved. Voters cannot choose between candidates of the same party in a constituency, so the power of the central party is more limited compared to other systems. • List PR: List PR empowers central parties significantly, especially in the closed-list system. Here, the party determines the ranking of candidates, meaning voters only have a say in the party, not the individual candidates. The central party has strong control over who gets elected, as those ranked highest are almost guaranteed a seat. An open-list system would reduce this power by allowing voters to choose among candidates from the same party. • Additional Member System (AMS): AMS gives more power to central parties than FPTP, particularly through the regional lists. In this system, parties rank candidates for the list seats. However, AMS balances this with constituency members who are locally selected, giving some local party influence over individual candidates. • Single Transferable Vote (STV): STV reduces central party power, as voters can choose between individual candidates from the same party. In multi-member constituencies, this allows voters more control over who represents them, making party control less dominant. However, in smaller constituencies (e.g., 3 seats), parties may still field only one candidate. • Alternative Vote (AV): Similar to FPTP, AV limits party control. Candidates are generally chosen by local activists in their party branches, and voters cannot choose between party candidates. Central party influence is reduced because there is no party list system, and local influence is stronger. Summary ranking of party control: 1. List PR (strongest party control due to closed lists) 2. AMS (party control through regional lists, but local constituencies offer some influence) 3. STV (least central party control, allowing for individual candidate choice) 4. AV (local activists select candidates, reducing party power) 5. FPTP (local selection limits central party control, though candidates must be approved)
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How do different UK electoral systems impact party choice and representation?
• First Past the Post (FPTP): FPTP limits representation of smaller parties, but there is still a fair range of parties represented in Parliament. Unlike the US Congress, FPTP allows for multiple parties to compete in each constituency. However, smaller parties like the Green Party or Brexit Party may struggle to win seats, despite gaining votes. There is no evidence that FPTP discourages diverse party candidates from standing for election, even if success is unlikely for many. • List Proportional Representation (List PR): List PR ensures greater representation of a wide range of parties. In the 2009 European election, for example, far-right parties like the BNP were elected. Smaller parties such as the Green Party, UKIP, and Brexit Party have traditionally had more MEPs than MPs under FPTP, as List PR ensures more proportional representation for these parties. • Additional Member System (AMS): AMS, like List PR, increases representation for third parties compared to FPTP. The Scottish and Welsh parliaments include a variety of smaller parties, but the range of parties remains limited. For example, in 2016, only five parties secured seats in the Welsh Assembly. AMS also allows for greater voter choice, as voters can split their tickets between constituency and list votes. • Single Transferable Vote (STV): STV increases opportunities for smaller parties and independents to be elected, as votes are not wasted. For example, Ireland has many independents elected under STV (19 out of 160 MPs in 2020). It encourages more party choice and representation, especially for smaller or regional parties. • Alternative Vote (AV): AV tends to favor candidates with broad appeal, and extreme or polarizing candidates are less likely to be elected. While AV may not boost representation for smaller parties, it ensures that elected candidates have at least 50% support in their constituencies. This system is unlikely to benefit smaller or niche parties, and middle-of-the-road candidates may find it harder to succeed. Summary ranking of party representation: 1. List PR (most proportional, many parties represented) 2. STV (more independent and minor party representation) 3. AMS (third parties represented, but fewer options than List PR) 4. FPTP (limits minor party representation) 5. AV (favors broad appeal candidates, but limits minor party success)
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How do different UK electoral systems compare in terms of comprehensibility and transparency?
• First Past the Post (FPTP): FPTP scores highly for comprehensibility. It is simple to understand and straightforward to operate. The results are usually clear and quick after the election, making it easy for voters to understand the outcome. • List Proportional Representation (List PR): List PR is less straightforward than FPTP. It involves multiple rounds of voting and counting, which can be cumbersome. However, its supporters argue that the fairness of the result justifies the added complexity. The process may be harder to follow, but the outcome is proportional. • Additional Member System (AMS): AMS is more complicated than FPTP. It requires two ballot papers and creates two categories of elected representatives (constituency and list members). However, AMS is relatively straightforward to count and calculate, and it does not involve the multiple rounds seen in List PR. • Single Transferable Vote (STV): STV is complex and may be the least transparent system. The process can take a long time, especially to calculate the final seat allocation. For example, in Ireland, the results took two full days to be declared. Its complexity makes it harder for voters to understand how their votes translate into seats. • Alternative Vote (AV): AV is easy to understand. It involves one MP per constituency, and the process is relatively straightforward compared to other systems. Voters rank candidates, and the system ensures that the winning candidate has at least 50% support. The process is simple and quick to operate. Summary of comprehensibility and transparency ranking: 1. FPTP (easiest to understand and transparent) 2. AV (simple, one-member constituencies) 3. AMS (more complex but straightforward in result) 4. List PR (less straightforward with multiple rounds) 5. STV (most complex, long counting process)
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Should the UK replace First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) for Westminster elections?
Yes, Replace FPTP • Better reflection of vote share: Alternative systems like STV or List PR more accurately reflect the overall vote share, unlike FPTP, which distorts results (e.g., ‘winner’s bonus’). • Results can be unfair: In February 1974, the party with the most votes didn’t win the most seats. • Weak or unrepresentative outcomes: FPTP doesn’t always result in a strong single-party majority, and leads to outcomes where many votes are wasted (e.g., smaller parties or safe seats). MPs can win without majority support from constituents. • Discriminates against smaller parties: FPTP can marginalize smaller or fringe parties, preventing them from gaining seats. • Encourages tactical voting: Voters may be forced to vote for the “lesser evil” in marginal seats rather than for their preferred party, diluting democratic choice. No, Keep FPTP • Stable government: FPTP traditionally produces strong, stable single-party governments that can govern effectively, avoiding the need for coalition compromises and backroom deals. This leads to clearer accountability in future elections. • Simplicity and clarity: FPTP is easy to understand, familiar to voters, and allows for quick vote counting and results declaration. It ensures a clear link between MPs and their constituents. • No flaws are without trade-offs: While alternative systems have their strengths, FPTP offers quick results, a strong government mandate, and avoids unnecessary complexity. • Keeps smaller parties out: Although it can exclude small and extremist parties, this ensures that only parties with significant support have a chance to govern, promoting stability. Summary: • Yes: FPTP distorts the vote, wastes votes, and doesn’t always produce strong governments. Alternative systems are fairer and more representative. • No: FPTP provides stable, clear government, encourages local accountability, and is simple to understand and implement.
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Key Factors Explaining Voting Behaviour
1. Personality of the Candidate or Party Leader: • The appeal of individual politicians can significantly influence voting patterns. • Leaders with strong media presence or charismatic personalities can sway voters (e.g., Tony Blair in 1997). • Personal leadership style and likability also play a key role in general elections. 2. Attractiveness of Manifesto Promises: • The relevance of policies presented in a party’s manifesto can drive voter support. • For example, Labour’s 2017 manifesto, which emphasized public services and workers’ rights, gained traction among younger voters, contributing to an increase in turnout and vote share. 3. Campaign and Media Influence: • Media coverage and the portrayal of party leaders, particularly during televised debates, can sway voters. • The 2010 televised leaders’ debates were instrumental in elevating Nick Clegg’s profile and increasing Lib Dem support, although the impact was short-lived. 4. Voter Profile (Social Class, Gender, Ethnicity, and Age): • Social class has historically been a strong predictor of voting behaviour, with working-class voters tending to support Labour and middle-class voters leaning towards the Conservatives. • Recent elections show that age is increasingly a crucial factor. For instance, the 2017 and 2019 general elections saw younger voters leaning towards Labour, driven by policies like tuition fee abolition. 5. Policy Views: • Voters often align with parties whose policies resonate with their own priorities, such as health, education, or immigration. • For instance, Brexit played a significant role in determining voting behaviour, with those prioritising national sovereignty supporting Leave (Conservatives) and those prioritising EU membership backing Remain (Labour and Lib Dems). 6. Performance of the Current Government: • The satisfaction or dissatisfaction with the governing party’s record can influence voting decisions. For example, dissatisfaction with the Conservative government’s handling of the NHS contributed to Labour’s gains in 2017. 7. Tactical Voting: • Some voters support a party they might not fully align with to prevent the election of a candidate or party they dislike. In 2017, many voters who opposed the Conservatives strategically voted for Labour or Lib Dems in marginal constituencies to counteract the Conservative majority. 8. Electoral System Considerations: • The nature of the electoral system affects voting behaviour. In FPTP, voters may vote strategically in safe seats or marginal constituencies to ensure their vote is not “wasted.” This was evident in the 2015 general election, where tactical voting ensured the Conservatives’ victory despite Labour securing more votes overall.
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Why is collating different factors of into primacy and recency models when analysing voting behaviour?
• Primacy Model: The primacy model of voting behaviour emphasizes long-term factors such as social class, age, and ethnicity, which shape a voter’s long-term party affiliation. This model suggests that voting patterns are generally stable, and changes occur only when voters feel that a party no longer represents their interests. For instance, working-class voters in the UK have traditionally supported Labour, but this can change if Labour’s policies no longer resonate with their economic or social concerns. • Recency Model: In contrast, the recency model focuses on short-term factors such as leadership, issues, and current events that may cause more immediate shifts in voting behaviour. For example, a leader’s performance in televised debates or media coverage of scandals can influence how voters perceive a party or its leader. The 2017 UK General Election is an example of how recency factors, such as Theresa May’s leadership and the Conservative Party’s policies on the NHS, led to a change in voting preferences. • Valence Issues: These issues are those that are universally liked or disliked, such as healthcare. Voters generally agree that issues like healthcare should be addressed, but the disagreement lies in which party is best suited to manage these issues. For example, while both the Labour and Conservative parties support the NHS, opinions differ on which party would manage it more effectively.
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What was the historical role of social class in UK voting behaviour?
Until recently, social class was crucial in UK voting behaviour. The working class predominantly voted Labour, while the middle and upper classes tended to vote Conservative. The Liberal Party appealed to some of the middle class, often serving as a refuge for protest votes.
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How did social class impact political parties and elections in the UK post-1945?
Both main parties (Labour and Conservative) had core voters largely defined by social class. Parties tailored their policies to appeal to these core supporters, with many areas being considered ‘safe’ for one party or the other due to class composition (e.g., Labour in former coalfield areas like the northeast and South Yorkshire).
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What were the factors that contributed to the decline of class-based voting in the UK from the 1970s onward?
Factors like deindustrialisation, immigration, Britain’s relationship with Europe, and changes in social attitudes made class less easy to define. This shifted voting behaviour and reduced the predictability of voting patterns based on class.
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What are Recent Trends in UK Voting Behaviour?
**Point: Class Dealignment** Example/Evidence: The decline in the traditional relationship between social class and voting behaviour can be seen in the 2010 and 2015 general elections, where the working class no longer overwhelmingly voted for Labour and the middle class no longer consistently voted Conservative. The 2015 general election, for example, saw significant shifts in voting patterns, with working-class constituencies in the North of England turning to UKIP. Explain: Class dealignment refers to the weakening of the influence of social class on voting decisions. Over time, voters have moved away from identifying with a particular class-based party and instead base their votes on a variety of factors, such as specific issues or candidate qualities. Significance: This trend signifies a shift away from the traditional Labour-Conservative divide and indicates a more complex and volatile voting landscape. It has led to the emergence of new political parties (like UKIP) that cater to more specific, often class-neutral, concerns. ⸻ **Point: Partisan Dealignment** Example/Evidence: Research by the British Election Study has shown that party loyalty has been declining since the 1970s, with many voters describing themselves as “political consumers” rather than traditional party supporters. In the 2017 general election, for instance, 30% of voters said they were unsure of which party to support just days before the election. Explain: Partisan dealignment happens when voters no longer feel attached to a political party, which diminishes the impact of long-term political affiliation. As parties have become less ideologically rigid, voters tend to choose candidates or parties based on specific policy proposals rather than a party label. Significance: This leads to greater voter volatility and less predictable election outcomes. Parties now need to appeal to a wider variety of voters, rather than focusing on ensuring their loyal base turns out. ⸻ **Point: Rise of Floating or Swing Voters** Example/Evidence: Swing voters played a key role in the 2017 and 2019 general elections. In 2017, many voters who had traditionally supported the Conservatives or Labour were undecided until the final moments of the campaign. The Lib Dems, for example, gained support from such voters due to their pro-EU stance in 2019. Explain: Floating voters are those who do not consistently support one party and are open to persuasion from multiple political groups. This group is crucial because they can decide the outcome of an election, often changing their allegiance based on party promises or leader performance. Significance: As swing voters become more common, political campaigns have to be more dynamic and focus on a broader range of issues, targeting undecided voters. This increases the importance of election strategies such as political advertising and media campaigns. ⸻ **Point: The Rise of Identity Politics** Example/Evidence: The 2017 election saw identity politics (Identity politics links with the topic of pressure groups and social movement) play a prominent role, particularly regarding issues such as immigration, LGBTQ+ rights, and racial justice. The prominence of these issues can be seen in the surge in support for the Green Party, which campaigned heavily on social justice, and the increased visibility of minority ethnic groups in political discourse. Explain: Identity politics refers to the political focus on the specific interests and perspectives of socially marginalized groups, such as women, ethnic minorities, and LGBTQ+ individuals. It reflects a shift away from traditional class-based politics, with people increasingly identifying with political movements that advocate for their personal identity or cultural group. Significance: Identity politics has led to a more fragmented electorate, where individuals are no longer solely defined by their social class but by a range of social and cultural factors. This trend has expanded political discourse, making it more inclusive, but also more complex, as parties must now address a wider range of issues.
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How is the rise of third and minor parties another example of recent trends in UK voting behaviour?
1. The rise of third and minor parties Point: Smaller parties have become more influential in UK elections, complicating the traditional two-party dominance. Example/Evidence: In the 2019 general election, the Brexit Party chose not to stand in Conservative-held seats, helping the Tories consolidate the pro-Brexit vote. Earlier, UKIP’s popularity in 2015 — with nearly 4 million votes — split the right-wing vote, arguably contributing to a hung parliament. Explain: While Labour and the Conservatives still dominate overall, smaller parties now regularly influence both outcomes and party strategy — acting as spoilers or pressure groups that shift the national conversation (e.g. on Brexit, devolution, or the environment). Significance: This development shows that voting behaviour is no longer neatly split along two-party lines. Voters are increasingly willing to back smaller parties, whether due to disillusionment with the mainstream or alignment on key issues — adding unpredictability and fluidity to UK elections.
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Is age potentially the new ‘class’ in voting behaviour?
Another example of recent trends in UK voting behaviour is the growing importance of age — often described as ‘age as the new class’. Point: Age has become a far more accurate predictor of voting behaviour than traditional indicators like class, gender or region. Example/Evidence: According to YouGov’s 2019 general election data, 56% of 18–24-year-olds voted Labour while just 21% voted Conservative. In contrast, among voters aged 70+, 67% backed the Conservatives, while only 14% supported Labour. The tipping point age where someone was more likely to vote Conservative than Labour was 39. Explain: Younger voters are more likely to favour progressive policies, internationalism, and investment in public services, aligning with Labour and Green values. Older voters, by contrast, tend to prioritise stability, conservative social values, and stricter immigration controls, aligning more with Conservative policy platforms. Significance: This trend highlights a generational political divide that may shape future elections. As age replaces class as the key dividing line in British politics, it challenges parties to recalibrate their messaging and policy priorities — and raises long-term questions about voter turnout, given that older voters are more likely to actually vote.
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