Energy security-Theory Flashcards

Question

What is the energy security index?

Answer 1

-Measures the energy security of a country

Answer 2

- Availability – the amount of a country’s domestic oil and gas supplies and its level of reliance on imported resources - Diversity – the range of energy resources used - Intensity – the degree to which the economy of a country is dependent on oil and gas - The higher the index, the lower the risk and therefore the greater the energy security

Answer 3

Energy security demands on resource availability, both domestic and foreign, and security of supply. -It can be affected by geopolitics because there is little excess capacity to ease pressure on energy supplies if supply becomes disrupted. For example, following the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the Arab nations reduced the supply of oil to the USA and Western Europe to reduce their support for Israel– this created a serious energy shortage. -Since then in 1977 the USA construction a ‘Strategic Petroleum Reserve’ with the initial aim to store 1 billion barrels of oil which could be used in the event of supply issues.

Answer 4

has a complex global pattern of PATHWAYS and PLAYERS (exporters and importers). -The Middle East exports around 15 000 barrels per day, mainly to Japan, Europe and CHINA. - Substantial amounts flow from Africa, Canada and South and Central America TO the USA. - Russia supplies some oil to CHINA, but the bulk of its exports now head to Europe.

Answer 5

-pathways are different in that they tend to be localised and regional rather than global. Traditionally gas is transported through pipelines, whereas oil has been transported by ship. - A possible future is that as movement through pipeline becomes less dependable (for political reasons) ; there will be a switch towards shipping gas in tankers as LNG.

Answer 6

Long running tensions in the Middle East e.g. destruction of oil wells during Iraq war consumed 6 million barrels of oil a day for 8 months -Hurricane Katrina in 2005 affecting oil production and refining in the Gulf of Mexico causing oil and petrol prices to rise - In 2005 – explosions and fires at Buncefield Oil Storage Depot destroyed fuel worth £10 million. It supplies Heathrow and as a result had to ration fuel -2006 and 2008 disputes between Russian and Ukraine disrupted gas supplies to Western Europe.

Answer 7

- It is hard to predict energy demand as it is strongly affected by economic growth rates, conservation of resources and the pace at which the world can switch to renewable sources of power. - It is thought that world oil demand will grow by 32% by 2020 and global gas demand by 48%. - Peak oil: The International Energy Agency predicted peak oil production to occur between 2013 and 2037, whilst USA Geological Survey predicted it is at least 50 years away.

Answer 8

- Global primary energy demand will rise by 53% - Fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy worldwide - Emissions from electricity generation will account for 44% of energy-related emissions -Over 70% increase in the energy demand will come from developing countries due to rapid economic growth and population growth

Answer 9

By 2008, 439 nuclear reactors were supplying 15% of the world’s electricity - Does not produce greenhouse gas emissions - Uranium is relatively cheap to mine and reserves should last around 150 years - Very cost effective to transport as only used in small quantities - Produces 1% of global electricity supply - 1986 Chernobyl incident highlights the issues - Very expensive to build – several billion pounds - Nuclear waste disposal is an issue as it remains radioactive for 10,000 years

Answer 10

Costs of generating wind today are about 10% of what they were 20 years ago - In some areas first generation wind turbines are being replaced with modern turbines which give better performance - NIMBY – people are concerned that the turbines could blight their homes and views - Turbines can kill birds - Suitable areas are often near the coast where land is expensive

Answer 11

Combined Heat and Power (CHP)  power stations waste 65% of the heat they generate but CHP plants can be up to 95% efficient as they can use different fuels in the same boiler including biomass but also cut emissions and reduce fuel dependency -b) Green Taxation  aimed at cutting the use of natural resources and encouraging recycling. E.g. road tax increase in 2010 will see 9.4 million motorists pay more road tax aimed to punishing heaviest polluting cars. The government will receive more that £1billion in additional revenue

Answer 12

- Emission controls - Emission trading - Green taxes - Offshore wind turbines - Carbon storage - Geothermal - Biofuels-algae

Answer 13

-Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 aimed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. -Countries are required to achieve specific reductions in their greenhouse emissions (average of 5% against 1990 levels by 2012). The USA refused to sign

Answer 14

– EU emission Trading Scheme meant that heavy industrial plants have to buy permits to emit greenhouse gases over the limit they are allowed by government. -Under the Kyoto Protocol carbon emissions are now tracked and traded like a commodity so that any excess reductions can be sold in the ‘carbon market’

Answer 15

Taxes on individuals for using air transport and pollution charges on companies. -Other ideas are aimed to reduce energy consumption such as removing stamp duty on carbon neutral homes

Answer 16

Building offshore costs at least 50% more than on land but wind speeds are generally double those on land so they can generate more electricity.

Answer 17

-this involves capturing the carbon dioxide released by burning coal and burying it deep underground, but it is not proved that the carbon dioxide will actually stay underground and it is very expensive

Answer 18

– In the Philippines 25% of the electricity is generated from underground heat which is free and available all day. However, the heat is often too deep to be economical.

Answer 19

There are 3 main types; crops e.g. grasses, sugar, trees and algae. Algae are hard to grow but produce oil that requires less refining before it becomes a bio fuel.

Answer 20

``` Physical Public Perception Politics Technology Economics Environment ```

Answer 21

– availability, e.g. North Sea natural gas convenience contributed to a ‘dash for gas’ in the early 1990s

Answer 22

– what people think is a huge factor in what resource countries use, e.g. 1950s/1960s nuclear power was perceived as a positive technology, but after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 the public opinion was swayed and people turned against the development of new nuclear power stations

Answer 23

– what people think is a huge factor in what resource countries use, e.g. 1950s/1960s nuclear power was perceived as a positive technology, but after the Chernobyl disaster of 1986 the public opinion was swayed and people turned against the development of new nuclear power stations

Answer 24

the efficiency and environmental advantages of new technology has seen alternative resources becoming more popular especially in an increasingly environmentally-concerned generation, e.g. solar panels efficiency increased from 5% energy conversion to 40% energy conversion between 1970 and 2008, thus increasing it’s viability

Answer 25

the cost of energy needs to be tangible, especially for those countries that are relatively energy-poor and need alternative resources in order to develop, also the switch from fossil fuels to renewable alternatives is arguable because the benefits and disadvantages of switching may not weigh up e.g. wind power is becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels, in the USA the installed cost is around US$55 per MWh, almost the same as coal and gas

Answer 26

the ever-growing concerns of the population with the effects of fossil fuels and other resources on the environment has led to changing perceptions and different mixes of energy use in different countries, e.g. the move to renewable resources in the UK with wind generating capacity increased from 500MW in 2001, to 5200MW by 2011

Answer 27

* The cost of developing nuclear plants, and the longevity of their construction (up to 10 years to completion) * The unreliable nature of renewable resources such as wind, is the price, public perception, etc. beneficial enough for a complete change * The cost and hassle of ‘up-scaling’ projects such as solar power has proven difficult in many countries due to the need for large areas of land and required support * The emerging economies of China and India both have over 10% of the world’s coal reserves and they are in no rush to switch to alternatives as they demand development like the developed world did: coal power stations can be built cheaply and quickly and are a reliable source of energy for their expanding populations

Answer 28

Countries being supplied by these routes are increasingly noticing the high risk of energy insecurity from depending on these nations. Oil and gas pipelines, tankers and routes are under constant threat from invasion, vulnerable to attack from terrorists, war and pirates around this region. Supertankers in particular are vulnerable to the attack from Pirates. Somali Pirates seized the supertanker MV Sirius Star in 2008 from this region and the Straits of Malacca are increasingly becoming piracy hotspots. These areas, where the energy supplies are under stress and risk from attack, are known as ‘choke points’. There is also an ever-growing concern over the volume of oil that passes through these narrow ‘choke-points’ because of the ease with which these could be disrupted or blocked.

Answer 29

a point of congestion or blockage due to unreasonable practices that threaten security and wellbeing of people and the resources in which they’re trying to transport

Answer 30

Many countries depend on foreign sources of fossil fuels transported along international energy pathways. The increasing demand and depleting supply of these resources is leading to a greater risk of energy insecurity for many of the dependent nations. Countries need supplies of power in order to maintain the social, political and economic stability of their nation and the security between countries varies hugely. As a result of the increasing risk of energy insecurity for both the present day and inevitably the future, some countries have invested heavily in nuclear power and other alternative resources to reduce dependency on imported fossil fuels. Examples of huge investors into nuclear power are France (86% of energy supply) and Japan (30% of energy supply).

Answer 31

The risks of disruption to important energy supply pathways can be seen by examining the past oil prices. Since 1970, the oil price has spiked four times and each time a period of recession has followed. The problem with high oil prices increasing is the detrimental effect that it has on industry and thus the people. As oil prices increase costs for industry also grow which leads to inflation and rising prices in the public economy. As a result, people spend proportionately more on expensive energy and less on other goods supplied by industries in the country. This, therefore, slows, depresses and can even reverse economic growth. To the developed world in particular, where economic stability and growth is fundamental, high energy prices increase the strains on politics and economics of the country

Answer 32

2010 – BP Deep Water Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico illustrated the dangers of exploring for oil at the technological frontier. 11 people were killed when the rig exploded and over 4 million barrels of oil were spilled, causing huge environmental consequences and resentment towards the company for spilling the ‘precious’ oil.

Answer 33

* Making excessive profits; many are close to being monopoly suppliers in some countries and regions and not allowing other people or companies to develop or compete against them, only the people at the top are winners * Not investing long term in exploration and refining capacity, so oil gluts (used excessively) quickly resulting in supply shortages * Damaging sensitive environments and ignoring local people, e.g. Rivers State in Nigeria where Shell has been accused of oil spills, corruption and driving the Ogoni people from their land

Answer 34

Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) was established in 2001 but is less influential than OPEC. Like oil, there are concerns over the future prices of gas because Iran and Russia may attempt to make GECF into a price-setting cartel for the natural gas resource.

Answer 35

Diverse energy mix Cotrol over supplies political stability in source and demand region

Answer 36

errorism attacks on infrastructure/ships  Increasing prices e.g. oil crisis  Speculation  Competition from emerging economies  Environmental legislation increasing costs of exploration, transporting and processing.  Political instability of suppliers e.g. Georgia 2008  Increasing length and complexity of pathways  Exhaustion of supplies and peak oil

Answer 37

this is related to energy demand. Demand for energy was strong between 2002 and 2006 as the world enjoyed an economic boom. Eventually the oil demand outstripped supply, pushing a single barrel of oil to over US$100 by summer 2008. Oil prices then collapsed to US$35 in 2009 but again by 2011 they’re again over US$100. The IMF expects the world’s economy to double in size by 2040, and with richer more economically advantageous economies developing, the demand for a limited supply will increase, potentially raising the price further to unaffordable levels: shortages of oil may spread globally, and hit hard dependent countries. Interestingly, the less developed poorer countries that do not necessarily rely on oil as much may be less affected by the oil price change, as oil has smaller dependability in LICs

Answer 38

increased efficiency of the thinning resources may lower the demand. High-energy prices between 2006 and 2008 in the UK and Europe encouraged a switch to fuel-efficient cars, public transport and home insulation. If governments and top-down companies encourage meaningful efficiency drive, the savings could be very large

Answer 39

the uncertainty over the expansion of the population limits the inevitability over the demand of fossil fuels in the future. The UN estimates that the population will exceed 8.5 billion people in 2040 (already hit 7 billion at the end of 2011) – 2 billion more than 2005. The development of these 2 billion extra people will be largely determined by which energy sources they would use. Development in the ‘100 million club’ (BRICs, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Pakistan, Mexico) would increase the demand because of their exponentially growing populations and their equally booming economies

Answer 40

• Future performance of global economy • Scale of global population growth • Impact of rising living standards • Emergent economies’ energy demands: o By 2030, total global energy consumption expected to grow by 50% with demand from developing countries surging by 85% o As the economies of Chindia grow their energy use is predicted double between 2005 and 2030, fuelling their demand for oil and gas and coal o Electricity generation is expected to nearly double by 2030 fuelled by mainly coal and gas. China accounts for 70% of new consumption o Nuclear power is expected to increase by nearly 50% most in Chindia o The largest increase in demand for oil will come from transport as people in Chindia purchase more cars o The use of renewable energy is expected to increase up to 2030.

Answer 41

* Possible contribution of ‘unconventional’ oil sources * Size of undiscovered oil and gas reserves * The scale of the possible to switch to renewables * Discovery of new energy technologies * Growth – the process of globalisation has significantly increased energy demand, particularly in the growing numbers of NICs * Geology – supply constraints have increased due to the end of the era of ‘easy oil’. In many large oil fields, only the more inaccessible oil is left to exploit * Geopolitics – production lost in the Iraq War and other disputes has highlighter the vulnerability of energy supplies * Guerrillas – the actions of guerrilla and terrorist groups have shut down production in Iraq, Nigeria and other countries from time to time. Such actions can create a great deal of uncertainty in the global oil market * Global warming – significant risks of hurricane disruption, rising environmental compliance costs and a growing regulatory consensus on climate change have made global warming a major energy issue

Answer 42

* Economic growth has always depended on growing supply of oil * After the peak, many forecasters expect global production to fall by about 3% a year * This means with growing oil demand, the deficit between oil we want and the oil we get will expand by more than 4% a year * Within 10 years, we could have about half the oil supply required to sustain economic growth * This is likely to lead to large spikes in the price of oil, causing deepening recessions

Answer 43

* Burning fossil fuels will drive climate change * The Stern Review estimated that under the business as usual model climate change would cost the world 5-20% of the global GDP, whereas efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions and the impacts of global warming would cost just 1% of the global GDP * 2-3ºC rise in temperature could reduce global economic output by 3% - by reducing crop yields for example * 5ºC rise could reduce global output by 10% with the poorest countries losing more than 10% because they lack the income to paying for coping strategies

Answer 44

Measures to encourage a reduction in energy consumption and an increase in energy efficiency

Answer 45

 Building wind turbines offshore cost at least 50% more than on land  Ministry of Defence in UK says that they could interfere with radar and pose a threat to national security  Offshore turbines are less visible and audible  Wind speeds at sea are generally double those on land, so offshore turbines generate more electricity.  Sustainable

Answer 46

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) involves capturing CO2 released by burning coal and burying it deep underground.  This allows clean electricity to be produced from coal. This is beneficial as coal is cheap, abundance and often locally sourced, making it an attractive commodity so its unlikely to go away.  sustainable  No one knows whether CCS will really work or whether CO2 will stay trapped underground  It is expensive

Answer 47

Electricity generated from underground heat. Heat is used to turn water into steam which generated electricity in turbines.  Renewable  Sustainable  Free  Inexhaustible  Available day and night due to local geology  No need to cover land surface  Many parts of the world (USA, Iceland, south Australia) have the hot rocks that make recoverable heat possible  Extracting subterranean heat is not easy  In many locations heat is too deep to extract economically  Local geology can create problems e.g. impermeable nature of granite or other igneous rocks makes it technically difficult and expensive to extract the heat

Answer 48

 Costs associated with safety, security, insurance, liability in case of accident/attack, waste management, construction and decommissioning are rising rapidly, whereas the cost of solar and wind power is falling  Nuclear waste disposal is an unsolved problem (remains radioactive for 10,000 years) and no safe containment has been devised yet  Risk of nuclear weapons proliferation  Mining, extracting, processing and transporting nuclear fuel produces carbon emissions at every stage  Any investment in nuclear power is money denied to developing and promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency  UK should maintain the 20% of its electricity generation by nuclear power that otherwise would be lost when old nuclear power stations are decommissioned

Answer 49

Three main types of biofuel: • Crops • Trees  Grasses and trees need a lot of processing  The whole of their biomass is converted into fuel – mostly ethanol • Algae  Trickier to grow  Produce oil that requires less refining before it becomes useful biodiesel Challenges that must be overcome in order to improve efficiency and acceptability of biofuel industry:  New reengineered crops need to be developed, tailored specifically for fuel rather than food production  Supply chair for biofuels can be costly, making them uncompetitive with fossil fuels  Range of small and large scale bio refineries is needed to improve logistics within the supply chain  Competition between food crops and biofuel crops for agricultural space needs to be address, especially where it encourages large-scale deforestation (e.g. Brazil) and food shortages.  Most feasible out of the five energies but sustainability is questioned in terms of its impact on environment and human well being

Energy security-Theory Flashcards

(73 cards)