EOS 365 Flashcards
(440 cards)
1
Q
where did the atmosphere come from
A
volcanic outgassing ~4.6bya
2
Q
surface temperature on earth 4.6bya
A
80-100ºC
3
Q
atmospheric composition 4.6bya
A
H2O 85%
CO2 10%
N2, S, SO2, H2S 5%
4
Q
volcanism slowed down
A
3.8bya
less volcanism– lower CO2— cooling— condensation– precipitation
5
Q
oxygenic photosynthesis
A
3.5-2.3bya
H2O + CO2 + light — {CH2O} + O2
increased atmos. O2 content
decreased atmos. CO2 content
6
Q
life evolved
A
3.5bya
7
Q
age of mammals
A
Cenozoic, 66mya-present
8
Q
age of ancient life
A
Paleozoic, 570-286mya
9
Q
age of reptiles
A
Mesozoic, 245-144mya
10
Q
how plate tectonics evolve atmosphere
A
new land mass– lots of weathering– CO2 sink– sediment reformation
11
Q
parts of the atmosphere by altitude
A
Homosphere, heterosphere
12
Q
Homosphere
A
altitude <80km
same relative proportion of gases everywhere
13
Q
Heterosphere
A
altitude >80km stratified
concentration of heavier gases decreases more rapidly with height than concentration of lighter gases
14
Q
proportions of gases in atmosphere (% volume)
A
N2 78% O2 21% Ar 1% CO2 0.04% trace gases: Ne, He, CH4, Kr, NO, H2, O3
15
Q
variability of water vapour in atmosphere
A
polar regions «1% by volume
tropical regions up to 4%
16
Q
concentrations of gases are measured in
A
‘dry atmosphere’
because water vapour is very variable around the world
17
Q
peak UV absorption
A
stratopause
18
Q
where weather occurs in the atmosphere
A
troposphere
19
Q
divisions of the atmosphere
A
troposphere 0-10km
stratosphere 10-50km
mesosphere 50-85km
thermosphere
20
Q
temperature profile of atmosphere
A
troposphere- declining
stratosphere- inclining
mesosphere- declining
thermosphere- increasing
21
Q
Ozone
A
non uniform districution
concentrated 10-50km
absorbs harmful UV
depleted by CFCs- form polar stratospheric clouds
22
Q
one dobson unit (DU)
A
27million molecules per cm^2
23
Q
limit of ozone hole in southern hemisphere
A
220DU
drops to ~120DU in spring
24
Q
aerosols
A
tiny liquid or solid particles of various compositions that are suspended in the atmosphere
reflect incoming solar radiation
25
aerosols important in
cloud formation- condensation nuclei- lead to cooling
| colorful sunrises/sunsets
26
natural forms of aerosols
fires, loess, salt from breaking waves, pollen
27
anthropogenic aerosols
dust from agriculture tilling, construction, roads, ash from fires, volcanoes
28
sulphur oxides (SOx)
burning of sulfur based fossil fuels (mainly coal)- power generation, heating, steelmaking
29
nitrogen oxides (NOx)
high T combustion for power, transportation, heating
denitrification by soil bacteria
lightening, forest fires
30
volatile organic compounds (VOCs)
photochemically reactive hydrocarbons: xylene, toluene, isoprene, methyl butenol, methane, ethane, acetone
power generation, residential wood burning, gas vehicles, forest fires
31
Canadian human NOx sources
transportation 53%
oil/gas 19%
electric power 10%
32
Canadian human SOx sources
oil/gas 29%
mining/smelting 33%
electric power generation 25%
33
Canadian human VOC sources
transportation 31%
oil/gas 26%
general solvent use 12%
34
Canadian human aerosol sources
mining 17%
wood 10%
residential fuel/wood combustion 15%
cement/concrete 15%
35
Carbon monoxide (CO)
colourless, odourless, toxic gas, low T combustion of carbon fuels
aluminum, steel, pulp, paper, wood-burning, transportation, incineration
36
Canadian human sources of CO
transportation 76%
| fuel wood combustion 7%
37
low temperature combustion
imperfect
38
greenhouse gases
H2O, CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, CFCs, PFCs, HFCs, HCFCs, SF6
39
significance of greenhouse gas
not determined solely by relative abundance
| small change in CH4 more important than same change in CO2
40
O3 in troposphere
caused by pollution, short lived, toxic
41
HCFCs
replaced CFCs, dont harm O3 but do cause warming
42
weather
state of the atmosphere at a particular time and place
43
climate
the statistics of weather, likelihood of occurrence of a particular weather event
44
can't attribute a single event to climate change
climate is a statistic
45
increase in mean of climate
graph shifts right
| more hot weather, more record hot weather, less cold weather
46
increase in variance of climate
graph 'flattens' out-platykurtic
more hot/cold weather
more record hot/cold weather
47
increase in mean and variance of climate
```
graph shifts right and flattens
much more hot weather
more record hot weather
not a lot of change in cold weather
little-no record cold weather
```
48
graphs/statistics of climate, what we know
we know that the mean is shifting, changes in variance are harder to predict
49
vulnerability
degree to which a system is susceptible to and unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes
50
resiliency
the ability of social/ecological system to absorb disturbances while retaining same basic structure/functioning, capacity for self-organization and capacity to adapt to stress/change
51
adaptation
initiative/measures to reduce vulnerability of natural/human systems against climate change effects
52
adaptive capacity
whole of capabilities, resources, and institutions of a country/region to implement effective adaptation measures
53
mitigation
implementation of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emission and enhance sinks
54
mitigative capacity
country ability to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission or enhance natural sinks
55
what is earths primary source of energy
the sun- drives atmosphere and ocean
56
water vapour from satellite
bright white at equator- tropics, convection
| mid latitude cyclones
57
wavelength
crest to crest
| trough to trough
58
electromagnetic spectrum
```
gamma <0.001µm
X-ray 0.001-.5µm
UV ~.5µm
visible .4-.7µm
infrared ~1000µm
microwaves ~1m
radio 1-1000m
```
59
shortwave radiation
<1µm, gamma, X-rays, UV, visible
60
mostly blocked by atmosphere
UV, x-rays
61
ALL blocked by atmosphere
x-ray, gamma
62
longwave radiation
IR, microwaves, radio
| >~1µm
63
speed of light
c = λ . v
64
visible light
```
violet 400nm
blue
green 500nm
yellow
orange 600nm
red 700nm
```
65
law of conservation
energy can neither be created nor destroyed, can only be converted from one form to another
66
wave frequency
of crests/troughs that pass a given point in a period of time (Hz, 1/s)
67
c =
3.00 x 10^8 m/s
68
Radiation laws
1. all known bodies emit em radiation
2. Weinn's displacement law
3. Stefan-Boltzmann law
69
All known bodies emit electromagnetic radiation
at a given temperature black bodies absorb all radiation incident on it, at every λ, and emits all radiation at every λ maximally (theoretical)
Earth, sun are ~black bodies
70
Weinn's displacement law
the λ of the most intense radiation is inversely proportional to the T of the object
increased T = decreased λ
max radiation λ- max λ emitted - more energetic
71
Weinns displacement law equation
λmax = Co / T
Co = 2.897x10^-3 km
λmax in µm (10^-6m)
72
Earth emits
infrared/longwave/terrestrial radiation
73
temperature of the sun
~6000ºC
| hotter = smaller λ = higher v
74
the suns em spectrum
UV 7%
Visible light 44%
near IR 37%
far IR 11%
75
earth temperature
~15ºC
cool = long λ = low v
much less em radiation given off by earth than by sun
76
Stefan-Boltzmann law for blackbodies
The total energy radiated by a black body is proportional to the 4th power of its absolute temperature
77
Stefan-Boltzmann equation
```
E = sigma . T^4
sigma = 5.67x10^-8 W/m^2.K^4
```
78
global radiative equilibrium
total energy absorbed (insolation) = total energy emitted (outgoing IR)
79
earth radiative equilibrium
earth is not in radiative equilibrium
| greenhouse gases trapping outgoing IR from leaving
80
solar altitude
angle of sun above the horizon
81
insolation
visible 45%
near IR 46%
UV 9%
weaker at poles- path is longer, has to travel through more atmos.- angle of inclination spreads incoming rays over larger area (weaker)
82
90º angle of inclination
1 unit incoming = 1 unit at surface
83
45º solar altitude
1/sin(45º) = 1.4
| 1 unit incoming is spread over 1.4 units at surface
84
30º solar altitude
1/sin(30º) = 2
| 1 unit incoming is spread over 2 units at surface
85
earth axial tilt
23.5º
86
day and night
rotation of earth on its axis ~1 every 24 hours
87
annual cycles
earth orbits the sun (in an ellipse) ~1 every 365.25 days
88
seasons result from
changing solar altitude
| change in length of daylight
89
equinox
sun vertical at equator
M 21-22 Vernal (spring)
S 22-23 Autumnal
day and night 12hrs, everywhere
90
Solstice
sun vertical at 23.5º N/S
J 21-22 NH tilted towards sun
D 21-22 SH titled towards sun
91
daily path of the sun in NH mid latitudes
higher in sky in June, less to the south
lower in sky- more to the south, in December
never to the north
92
longest day of year in NH
Summer solstice
June 21
suns vertical rays at Tropic of Cancer
93
shortest day of year in NH
winter solstice
Dec. 21
suns vertical rays at Tropic of Capricorn
94
Milankovic
1930- Mathematical Climatology and the Astronomical Theory of Climatic Changes
eccentricity
obliquity
precession
95
Eccentricity
100,000yrs
| changes in ellipsoid orbit
96
Obliquity
axial tilt, 41,100 years
21.5-24.5º
bigger tilt = intensified seasons
97
axial precession
wobble, 23,000 and 19,000 yrs
| where N/S axis points
98
aphelion
farthest from sun
99
perihelion
closest to sun
100
why are poles cold in the summer if they get more insolation than equator
majority is reflected away by snow/ice - albedo
| insolation more spread out
101
UVic earth system climate model parts
```
energy/moisture atmospheric model
vegetation model
land surface scheme
ocean general circulation model
sea ice model
inorganic and organic carbon cycles
marine sediment model
```
102
if we turn off emissions at 2013
if CO2 levels increased to 4.5º of warming-- permafrost defrosts, strong + feedback, warming continues
103
ineffective science
science that is not effectively communicated
104
university research is funded
mostly by public funds
105
decision making
need evidence-based decision making
| NOT decision-based evidence making
106
children act like scientists
they ask questions
| seek to answer questions
107
communicating science
```
working with schools
hosting school field trips
public lectures
writing for non-science audiences
the media
```
108
what media are looking for in a story
```
Drama
Certainty
Brevity
Personal
immediacy
Emotional/hot topic
```
109
drama
good narrative, conflict, david vs. goliath
110
certainty
clear, avoid innuendo, get facts straight
111
brevity
concise, pithy quotes, short, catchy
112
personal
provides individual perspective
113
immediacy
must be current, reader can form connection, current issues
114
emotional/hot topics
storms, cure for cancer, ebola
115
most effective tool in science communication
use of analogy or metaphor
| reporters/general public don't have scientific knowledge
116
"ingredients of the storm"
warm temperature, sea level rise
117
why it takes a long time for climate to equilibrate to a given level of radiative forcing
analogy with a pot of water on a stove
118
annual mean projections of future climate
2090-2099
prior to industrialization 1.8ºC globally warmer
track we are on now 4ºC globally warmer
119
do we owe the future anything?
intergenerational equity
120
Canadian voter turnout
overal ~60%
65-74 ~70-80%
18-24 ~40%
121
barriers to change
political, throne speech hipocritical
| Oregon, Cali, Wash., refuse to ship oil, so BC decides to and then tries to push that LNG will replace coal in china?
122
problems with Humble Energy add
glacier problems were unknown at the time
| America losing space race, cold war, company trying to push power, playing on American Power- defeat Soviets
123
Angus Reid Poll 2007
convinced global warming is occurring: canada 77%, BC 80%, Alberta 69%, Quebec 83%
may be occurring: canada 21%, BC 19%, Alberta 28%
not happening: canada 2%, BC 2%, Alberta 4%
124
Junk science
have an answer and build the case for it- biased evidence
125
US and Canadian poll 2008-2012
solid evidence of global warming- US 58%, Can. 80%
| no evidence- US 26%, Can. 14%
126
Climate gate
fall/winter 2009- emails stolen and spread- lots of conspiracy
127
belief of global warming by demographic, US, spring
democrat- 69%
republican 41%
low 'belief' in republicans- media
128
belief of global warming by demographic, US, fall
democrat- 78%
republican- 47%
increase- extreme weather events, not-sure votes changing their minds
college degree little change, no degree big change- influenced by personal experience
129
issues with science journalism
```
scientists as communicators
discourse in scientific discipline
accuracy (sensationalism)
who is an expert and who isn't
journalistic balance - inadvertent journalistic bias
```
130
scientists as communicators
most scientists can't communicate to the average person- they are not conducive to yes/no answers but media don't report all the science
131
discourse in scientific discipline
if a scientific article is not your field, its hard to understand the jargon, and very hard to communicate it to the public- have to follow the things media wants + be true to the science
one small mistake can alter the science
132
accuracy
if not upheld, comes across as sensationalism
| ie. statue of liberty drowning
133
who is an expert?
difficult to determine for general public- especially when papers publish articles in the science section that aren't sound science
134
Journalistic balance
involves seeking out and reporting upon a variety of opinions associated with a news story
not biased- getting both sides of the story- this isn't how it works in science, but is how it is done
135
problem with journalistic balance
inadvertent journalistic bias
journalists are supposed to give both sides of the story but this leads to giving a biased statement if there isn't another side- in science there isn't
contrasting pts. lead people to think there is uncertainty when there isn't
136
how journalists obtain balance
microscale balance
| macroscale balance
137
microscale balance
balance statement at the end
138
macroscale balance
equal column space for both opinions
139
Journalistic balance study of articles
Maxwell Boykoff, 2004
random sample of all articles on global warming
53% gave ~equal emphasis to human vs. natural reasons for global warming
35% focus on human causation but presented balanced view- included views of natural fluctuations
6% only suspicions of human contribution
94%- balanced/biased view
140
Journalistic balance study of news channels
Boycoff, 2008
6 news stations
70% of network news stories reported balanced coverage
141
Naomi Oreskes 2004 study
studied 928 articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals
| no study disagreed with consensus view concerning role of greenhouse gases in causing global warming
142
Anderegg 2010 study
1372 publications
| 97-98% of climate researchers support IPCC findings
143
climate scientists who don't believe climate change exists
their work still shows it does
| ex. religious scientists who believe earth is robust
144
scientific method
observation stage: ask a question, observe/measure/describe
explanation/hypothesis stage: explain with theories
Prediction stage: use explanation to make prediction in another situation
experimental stage: conduct experiment to test prediction
145
if experimental stage fails
go back to explanation/hypothesis stage
146
if experimental stage succeeds
explanation/hypothesis stands
147
submitting a paper
1st review: 1% accepted, 50% major changes need, 20% minor, 30% rejected
final review: 63% accepted, 33% rejected, 5% withdrawn
148
scientific uncertainty
Aleatoric uncertainty
| Epistemic uncertainty
149
Aleatoric uncertainty
irreducible- non-reversilbe, uncertainty can't be reduced
| ex. odds of rolling 2 6's- ALWAYS 1/36
150
Epistemic uncertainty
reducible, uncertainty can be reduced by further research
| can't see details in a picture- zoom in
151
Scientists strive to reduce
epistemic uncertainty
152
uncertainties in climate predictions
uncertainty in climate feedbacks
uncertainty in future emissions scenarios (lots of aleatoric)
unknown unknowns
153
biggest uncertainty
cloud feedback
154
climate sensitivity
amount of T increase if you were to double CO2 in atmosphere
155
Obfuscating the public, 2002 US republican memo
need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate..
recruit experts sympathetic to your view..
challenge views by using professionals (scientists) not politicians..
156
scientific uncertainty is different than
policy/opinion uncertainty
157
manufactured grassroots organizations
astroturf organizations
| ex. friends of science, swift boat veterans for truth
158
what do astroturf organizations do
```
issue press releases
write letters to editor
fill blogs with comments
email reporters
publish and disseminate reports from their 'experts'
```
159
media interest in global warming, 1997
major increase in Globe and Mail
| kyoto- global plan, didn't influence provincial
160
media interest in global warming, 2002
huge increase in Calgary news- ratification of kyoto- plans starting to be made provincially
161
media interest, 1988
first increase in interest, establishment of IPCC
Hansen Testimony
Canada hosts international climate conference
Heat waves, drought in US
162
media interest, 1990
IPCC first assessment report (FAR)
| Canada's green plan
163
media interest, 1992
supplementary report to IPCC
| Rio Earth Summit
164
media interest, 1996
IPCC 2nd assessment report (SAR)
165
media interest, 2001
IPCC 3rd assessment report (TAR)
166
media interest, 2005
Hurricane Katrina
| G8 meeting in Scotland
167
media interest, 2006
new global mean T record
| Al Gore- inconvenient truth
168
media interest, 2007
interest sky rockets
IPCC 4th assessment (AR4)
Record Arctic sea ice melt back
169
Boycoff 2007
comparing US to UK for balance
UK has significantly higher coverage
UK- newspaper coverage is nearly always fact based
US- coverage isn't mostly fact based till 2006
170
2009-2010 decrease in public belief
scientist emails stolen and uploaded to Russian server, posted on blogs
emails misunderstood
ex. 'used a trick to solve something'
171
media interest in global warming 2007-2012
2007 was the highest, drop constantly after that- Immediacy- old news
172
Science in policy
science plays a crucial role in informing policy deliberations
science cannot prescribe policy outcomes
science can say what to expect, can't decide what society should do
173
scientists responsibility
university scientists have responsibility to communicate results of, and respond to questions about their research to those who fund it (public)
174
public responsibility
education is crucial to successful democracy
| demand better access to government science
175
Stephen Harpers rules controlling interviews with journalists
80% drop in media coverage of climate change science
176
IPCC established by
World Meteorological Organization
177
Hansen Testimony
1988, 'Grandfather of climate science', 99% confident global warming underway, testimony to US senate committe
178
Canada hosts major international climate conference
1988, Changing Atmosphere: implications for Global security
179
Jean-Baptiste-Joseph Fourier
1824- heat as light penetrates air more than it does when it repassess as non-luminous heat
ie. insolation penetrates atmosphere easier than IR
180
John Tyndall
1861, built contraption to test absorption, radiation, and conduction of different gases
181
Svante August Arrhenius
1896, globally averaged surface warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO2- 5º in tropics, 6º in high latitudes
182
Guy Callendar
1936, calculated atmos. CO2 based on constant emissions- 346ppm by 2100, 373 by 2200
calculated warming as 0.39ºC @ 330ppm and .57ºC @ 360ppm
thought the warming would be a good thing
183
current atmos. [CO2] rising by
>2ppm/yr
| now- 398?ppm
184
WMO definition of normal weather
average over a period of 30yrs.. currently using 1981-2010
185
radiative forcing
change in the average net radiation at the top of the atmosphere (incoming - outgoing)
186
positive radiative forcing
warms earth
| greenhouse gases
187
negative radiative forcing
acts to cool earth
volcanic eruption
reduction in solar intensity
188
global warming based on physics
warm climates can't be maintained unless there is an excess of greenhouse gases; if gases are increased, positive radiative forcing occurs until earth reaches a new global radiative equilibrium
warms until incoming = outgoing
189
climate sensitivity findings
Arrhenius 5-6ºC
IPCC 1-5th AR 1.5-4.5ºC
Charney report- 1.5-4.5ºC
35 years of research worldwide- same climate sensitivity
190
Charney Report
1979- asses climate changes resulting from man made releases of CO2 into the atmos.
"We may not be given a warning until CO2 loading is such that appreciable climate change is inevitable"
191
First World Climate conference
1979- United Nations World Climate Programme- improve understanding of the climate system and apply understanding for the benefit of society
United Nations World Climate Research Programme- to determine the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities
192
1980 US assessments
US National Academy of Sciences- concerned about environ. changes of this magnitude-- need more research
US environmental protection agency- argic. conditions will be significantly altered, enviro. and economic systems disrupted, political institutions stressed, sense of urgency
193
Villach conference
1985- WMO int'l conference- economic and social decisions are made based on past climatic data- unreliable guide, urgently need to refine estimates of climate to improve decisions
(ex. storm drains)
194
CO2 in ocean
warmer waters lower potential
195
aerosol lifetime
<10km, few days (rain)
stratosphere- 1-2 yrs
greenhouse gases last much longer.. after effects of aerosols gone- much more rapid warming
196
Villach conference conclusion 2
climate change = sea level rise = acid depositions = threat to O3
197
Villach conference conclusion 3
some warming inevitable, rate/degree of future warming could be affected by gov't policies on energy, fossil fuels, emission of gg
198
Toronto conference
1988- Mulroney opened up climate panel in canada for recommendation, key environmental policies developed, canadas green plan
reduce CO2 by ~20% by 2005
199
CO2 emission growth rates
1990-1999 1%/yr
2000-2012 ~3%/yr
this beyond what skeptics called over the top
200
Margaret Thatcher
UK conservative, created best climate research centre
201
CO2 emissions by nation
```
developed nations slight decrease
developing nations major increase
increase in 2011 compared to 2010
China 9.9%
Australia 8.4 %
US -2%
Canada 2%
```
202
IPCC
intergovernmental panel on climate change
| established in 1988 by WMO (world meteorological organization) and UNEP (united nations envrionment programme)
203
IPCC Mandate
the role of IPCC is to assess on an objective basis, the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding human-induced climate change, potential impacts and options for mitigation
204
IPCC working group I (WGI)
Define problem- assess the scientific aspects of the climate system and climate change
205
IPCC WGII
Vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptability) and impacts- how does problem affect us?
206
IPCC WGIII
what can be done about it- assess the mitigation
207
IPCC FAR
1990, influential in formation of UNFCCC at Earth Summit
208
UNFCCC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
objective: stabilize gg's at a level that would prevent dangerous interference w/ climate system
ratified by 194 countries
209
IPCC SAR
1995, influential on adoption of Kyoto
210
under Kyoto Protocol Canada
was to reduce egg's by 6% relative to 1990 levels over 2008-2012
only country to ratify and pull out
211
IPCC TAR
2001
212
IPCC AR4
2007
| synthesis report to integrate 3WGs
213
developing the IPCC AR4 WGI
2003- determine layout, approve table of contents
2004- teams made-- writing tasks assigned
Jan 2005- 0th order draft- get a sense of whats out there and what each person will focus on
A 05- 23 page review for 0th order draft
M-Aug 05- prepare 1st draft
N 05- 172 pages of review for 1st draft
March 06- 2nd draft
J 06- 173 pages of review (1331 comments)
Sep 06- final draft
J-F 07- plenary to approve WG1
214
developing IPCC 5th assessment
First order draft sent for review D 2011
| final plenary S 2013
215
final plenary
every word must be approved unanimously by every member state
216
developing an IPCC assessment
~4yr process involving 100s of scientists
217
in the NH 83-2012 was
likely the warmest 30-yr period in the last 1400 yrs
218
ocean warming
dominates increase in energy, accounting for >90% of E accumulated btw 71-2010
219
atmospheric [CO2, CH4, N2]
have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000yrs
220
human influence
extremely likely to be the dominant cause of observed warming since mid-20th century
221
aspects of climate change will persist
for many centuries even if emissions of CO2 are stopped
| substantial multi-century climate change commitment
222
top 11 warmest years since 1880, anomaly relative to 1901-2000 average
2014- .69, 2010- .66, 2005- .65, 1998- .63, 2013-.62, 2003- .62, 2002- .61, 2006- .59, 2009- .59, 2007- .59, 2012- .57, 2004- .57
223
Copenhagen Accord
2009, 114 nations have taken note- deep cuts in emissions are required to hold increase in T below 2ºC
224
if countries meet voluntary targets under Copenhagen Accord
2ºC is almost certainly broken
3ºC has 50% chance of being broken this century
4ºC follows if emissions are not curtailed
disconnect between policy and science, not going to help
225
Greenhouse gas reduction targets act
January 2008- 33% below 07 by 2020; 6% by 2012; 18% by 2016; 80% by 2050
a. Emissions offset regulation
b. Carbon neutral government regulation
226
May 2008
Carbon tax act
Greenhouse gas reduction (cap and trade) act
gg reduction (renewable & low carbon fuel requirements)
gg reduction (vehicle emissions standards)
local gov't (green communities) statutes amendment act
utilities commission ammendment act
227
Greenhouse gas reduction (cap & trade) act
a. reporting regulation
b. offsets regulation
c. emissions trading regulation
228
Greenhouse gas reduction (emissions standards) statutes amendment act
may 2008
| landfill gas management regulation
229
most effective legislature
carbon tax
230
June 2010
clean energy act
231
2008
large number of policies brought in
232
BC electricity supply
```
Hydro- 82%
Biomass- 11%
Natural gas 6%
Wind 1%
within clean energy act
```
233
BC green standards
leaders of emission reduction and green vehicle use
234
since carbon tax
rest of canada increase in emissions
| BC decrease in emissions
235
provincial changes in emissions 2000-2011
Quebec -15%
BC -15%
Ontario -26%
Saskatchewan +63%
236
quebecs changes in emissions
lowest to begin with in 2000 and still had large change to 2011
237
ontario changes in emissions
-26% - very large change due to shutting down coal-fire plants
238
total carbon emissions in millions of metric tonnes
china 23x10^5
US 15x10^5
India, russia, japan, germany, iran, south korea, canada (9)
239
per capita carbon emissions in metric tonnes
US (12) 4.7, Australia (14) 4.57, Canada (18) 4, Iceland (64) 1.67, Chad (213) 0.01 [400x canada]
240
why is canada number 18 in per capita emissions
only because top countries (1-11) are very small petrol states, 18th is not a good place..
241
chinas emissions problems
our problem-- we shut down our manufacturing to get products cheaper in china, they know that it is unstable and are lead producers of renewables-- why don't we realize this?????
242
top 4 emitters of CO2 PgC/yr
India- 7.5% increase
EU -2.8%
US -1.8%
China 9.9%
243
CO2 emissions by fossil fuel type
Coal 43%
Oil 34%
Gas 18%
Cement 5%
244
BC starts falling behind
2012, clean energy act modified by adding 'other than electricity to serve demand from facilities that liquefy natural gas for export by ship'
245
Greenhouse Gas Industrial Reporting and Control Act
2014, using 'Alberta wording' - rates of emissions
246
The 'pipedream'
2013- lng will make BC debt free, Christy Clark; lng will create >100,000 jobs; funds could help eliminate sales tax and invest in education and communities
247
truth about LNG
election campaign because nobody expected this gov't would win
248
current LNG prices
UK 11/MMBtu
Asia 16/MMBtu
NA 6/MMBtu
price gap, but will it remain fixed? thats we are counting on
249
Clean Energy BC conference
2012, Asia LNG price ~10$ higher, China has lower demand than NA, China has 3X shale gas that all of Canada has combined (not just BC)
250
World natural gas reserves
Russia, Iran, Qatar have 60% of world supply, Canada has nearly 0 in comparison
and Russia is much closer to China
251
LNG facility
Kitimat- pulp/paper mill closed, not enough room for plants
| 4/5 big companies have announced that they are out
252
LNG companies
```
Chevron/Apache
Shell Canada
Methanex
Petronas/Progress
BG/Spectra
```
253
Solutions to global warming
technological
behavioural
market instruments
254
Site C Dam
to subsidize energy to LNG companies
| why not couple existing dams (batteries) with other resources- wind/geothermal (rechargers)
255
tragedy of the commons
costs distributed across populations, benefits to gov't = collapse inevitable
256
how to avoid collapse?
regulate number of cows a former is entitled to put on land
cap number of cows allowed
put a head tax on each cow
regulation, cap & tread, emissions tax
257
Clean Tech Sector
```
clean tech report BC:
202 clean tech organizations in BC
revenues increased 57% from 2008-2011
8400 employees in 2011
don't need to rely on oil/gas/coal
```
258
US green energy
3.4million green energy jobs 2011
4X rate of jobs from 2010
booming, we should be following suit
259
clean tech definition
technology involved in the generation, transportation, storage, and end use of renewable energy
260
companies looking for green energy
BMW, Washington
| Google, Oregon
261
technological advances
wireless technology, computers, internet, space travel
internal combustion engine??
we haven't been able to make any advances with this?
262
scientists have done their job
now politicians must do theirs
| starting with education
263
what happens when the suns radiation reaches the atmosphere
reflection
scattering
absorption
264
angle of incidence
= angle of reflection
265
albedo
fraction of incident radiation reflected by some particle/surface
= reflected radiation / incident radiation
266
planetary albedo
~30%
267
cloud albedo
~20%
268
variations in albedo on the surface
fresh snow 75-95%
desert 25-30%
sea ice 30-40%
269
what happens on low albedo surfaces
how to walk on-- converted to heat instead of being reflected
270
what happens on high albedo surfaces
easy to get sunburnt (while skiing)
271
variation of albedo with solar altitude for a flat/undisturbed water surface
albedo vs. solar altitude
| 100% at 0º-- decreases exponentially with increasing angle-- close to 0% at 90º
272
reflection is mainly dependent on
clouds
273
scattering
mostly by gases, radiation is dispersed in all directions
| reflection is a special form of scattering
274
scattering is dependent on
wavelength
275
wavelength dependent scattering
Rayleigh scattering
276
Rayleigh scattering
elastic scattering of light/electromagnetic radiation by particles << than the wavelength of radiation
277
Rayleigh scattering of blue light
sunrise/sunsets
| blue has been scattered away, left with longer wavelengths
278
Absorption
gases are selective absorbers of radiation, none are effective in the visible band
279
wavelength of non-absorption by gases
in IR range- atmospheric window
| above IR range- visible light
280
H2O_l absorption
very absorptive gas- big/wide absorption bands
281
total atmospheric absorption
UV almost all absorbed by O3
| visible barely absorbed
282
why increasing CO2 is such a big deal in atmospheric absorption
increasing CO2 increases absorption in atmos. window- if CO2 was absorbed in the same band as another gas wouldn't be as big of a deal
283
solar radiation spectrum
peak at visible spectrum
| shows that black body is a good approximation for the sun
284
most visible radiation
reaches earths surface, ~50% is absorbed by earth surface
285
all matter with a T
radiates electromagnetic radiation
286
the hotter an object is
the shorter the wavelength of its peak emissions
287
hotter objects give off
more intense radiation than a cooler object
288
gases selectively absorb radiation depending on
the wavelength of that radiation
289
longwave radiation is selectively absorbed by
water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide-- which reradiate energy towards the earths surface
290
most of the atmosphere
is in the troposphere
291
IR satellite image
```
darker = hotter
clouds = lighter = colder - higher in troposphere, emitting less radiation
```
292
wavenumber
k = 2.pi / lambda
| units - 1/cm
293
venus spectrum compared to mars
very similar but venus is much hotter
| emission higher up in atmosphere?
294
outgoing longwave radiation spectrum graphs
depression in spectrum at ~600/cm where CO2 absorbing and re-emitting
~1000/cm O3 absorption
295
troposphere temperature
atmosphere cools with altitude
296
cooler gasses emit
less intense long wave radiation
297
absorbing longwave radiation
warms the atmosphere at the altitude the radiation is absorbed
298
greenhouse gas absorption partly determine
atmospheric temperature structure
| but, atmospheric T structure determines strength of the greenhouse effect
299
more energy coming in than going out
net positive imbalance
300
more energy going out than coming in
net negative imbalance
301
earths mean temperature
14.4ºC
302
earths mean temperature without natural greenhouse effect
-19.4ºC
303
atmosphere absorption of solar radiation
atmosphere is ~clear to solar radiation
304
greenhouse analogy
bad because greenhouses reflect, the atmosphere absorbs and re-emits
also, glass blocks IR
305
temperature gradient
change in temperature with distance
equator- warm, pole-cold
earth surface-warm, tropopause-cold
306
heat flows to cold via
conduction
convection
advection
radiation
307
conduction
within a substance or between substances in direct physical contact
kinetic energy of atoms/molecules transferred by collisions between neighbouring atoms/molecules
308
kinetic energy =
1/2mv^2
309
heat
total kinetic energy of atoms/molecules making up a substance
310
temperature
the measure of the average kinetic energy of the individual atoms/molecules making up a substance
311
Kelvin =
ºC + 273.15
312
ºC =
5/9[ºF - 32]
313
ºF =
[9/5.ºC] + 32
314
0K =
-273.15ºC = -459.7ºF = no molecule motion
315
calorie
amount of heat required to raise the T of 1g of water from 14.5-15.5ºC
316
1Joule =
1kg.m^2/s^2 = 0.2389calories
317
heat is conducted
from Earths warm surface, to overlying air
318
Conduction is only significant
in a very thin layer of air in immediate contact with Earths surface
319
air as a conductor
very bad, insolating
320
convection
more important, effective in transporting heat verticalling in troposphere (than conduction)
vertical transfer of heat within a fluid via motion of the fluid
321
convection in the atmosphere
air overlying ground warms from conduction--- rises--- cools---sinks
322
sensible heating =
conduction + convection
| 'thermals' - heating can be felt/sensed
323
Advection
the horizontal transport of heat by the winds- horizontal transport of air mass by wind
324
specific heat
amount of heat required to change T of 1 gram of a substance by 1ºC
325
some specific heats
water - 1
Ice- 0.478
sand- .188 (1/5 the heat needed to raise water T)
silver - 0.056
326
water possesses
thermal stability
327
low specific heat
takes less energy to change T
328
air temperatures are regulated by
the T of the surface over which the air resides
329
exhibit smaller seasonal variations
maritime and ultramaritime (in reference to subcontinental and continental)
330
why W maritime/ultramaritime exhibit lower variation than E
Westerly prevailing winds- winds come from the W- blow over the continent
331
produce temperature gradients
imbalances in rates of heating and cooling from one place to another
332
circulate and redistribute heat
atmosphere and ocean
333
thermals are what type of heating
sensible heating (conduction +convection)
334
evapotranspiration is what type of heating
latent heating- transfer of heat as a consequence of changes in the phase of water
335
freezing
liquid- solid
336
gas-solid
deposition
337
liquid-gas
evaporation
338
condensation
gas-liquid
339
melting
solid-liquid
340
solid-gas
sublimation
341
evaporation can occur at any T
depending on humidity
| require more energy with lower T
342
latent heat loss from the ocean
radiation--evaporation (from ocean)--condensation (cloud formation)
343
cloud formation and heat
condensation releases heat as latent heat of vaporization
major transport of heat to poles
"condensational heating"
344
incoming shortwave radiation
342W/m^2
345
reflected shortwave radiation
107W/m^2
346
outgoing longwave radiation
235W/m^2
347
energy transfers at the top of the atmosphere
incoming shortwaves
reflected shortwave
outgoing longwave
in balance
348
energy transfer at planetary surface
```
Absorbed shortwave
Absorbed longwave
Emitted longwave
Sensible heat
latent heat
balance
```
349
absorbed shortwave radiation
168W/m^2
350
absorbed longwave radiation
324W/m^w
351
emitted longwave radiation
390W/m^2
352
sensible heat
24W/m^w
353
latent heat
78W/m^2
354
net transfer of heat from surplus to deficit
tropics: absorbed > emitted
polar: emitted > absorbed- rate of cooling exceeds rate of solar radiational warming
355
why is there 3 cells in each hemisphere
heat imbalances and because earth spins (corriolos)
356
subtropic dry zone
sinking air between hadley and ferrel cell (~30º)
357
evaporative cooling
device that cools air through the evaporation of water
| works by employing water's large enthalpy of vaporization
358
meridional flow
when the general air flow pattern is N-S, or S-N, along the Earth's longitude lines
359
mean meridional circulation
hadley cell circulation
360
thermohaline circulation driven by
density
| brine rejection
361
brine rejection
glacier growth adds salt-- increases density-- sinks-- flows S
362
atlantic meridional overturning circulation
gulf stream--transports heat poleward-- warmer climate in UK
363
drives air-sea-ice system
solar radiation
364
heat imbalances in the atmosphere
temperature gradients-imbalances radiational heating and cooling
weather- atmosphere responses to redistribute heat
365
seasonality
need for heat redistribution varies w/ season- atmos. response and weather vary throughout year
366
Radiational controls
conditions that influence local radiation balance and local air T
time of day and year
cloud cover
surface cover
367
radiational controls, time of day and year
solar altitude
daily fluctuations- min- max, deficit- surplus-deficit
low latitudes- larger variations in day/night than seasonal
368
radiational controls, cloud cover
daytime: cooling- reflects insolation
nighttime: warming- traps IR, blocks radiational cooling
369
radiational controls, surface cover
albedo, and specific heat
differences in coastal vs. inland
clearcutting
ice cover
370
isotherm
line connecting places of equal temperature
| isotherms are straighter in SH- less land mass, zonally symmetric
371
why are tropics more susceptible to biodiversity loss w/ climate change
organisms are adapted to much smaller T ranges than poleward organisms
372
annual temperature ranges
small near equator
increase with latitude
greatest over continents
373
January-July surface air temperature difference
atlantic ocean ~5º
| Siberia ~50º
374
estimates of total radiative forcing from human activities
AR4 - 1.6W/m^2
| AR5- 2.3W/m^2
375
CO2 forcing
~+1.8W/m^2
376
WMGHG
well mixed greenhouse gases
377
WMGHG forcing
~+1W/m^2
378
contrails
thin clouds really high up from planes- result in warming (small forcing)
379
Aerosols + clouds forcing
0- (-1)W/m^2
| large error bars- complicated relationship, some of the uncertainty problems in future predictions
380
Anthropogenic Carbon Dioxide sources
Combustion of fossil fuels
cement production
deforestation
381
combustion of fossil fuels
fossil fuel + O2 = CO2 + H2O(g) + heat
382
cement production
limestone (CaCO3) + Clay/SiO2 + heat -- CO2
| produces 'clinker'
383
deforestation
```
lowers carbon sink
increases albedo (local cooling)
```
384
cumulative emissions 1850-2011
fossil fuel combustion + cement pruduction- 374 gigatonnes of carbon (10^9Kg)
deforestation + land use- 163 rigatonis of C
385
today deforestation has contributed
1/3 of the problem
386
reforestation
could contribute 1/3 of the solution
387
2011 carbon dioxide emission
fossil fuels 9Gt of C
cement .5Gt
land use .9Gt
388
fertilization effect
if CO2 limiting nutrient for plant growth-- increasing CO2-- increases plant growth
saturation at 800-1000ppm
389
photosynthesis
HwO + CO2 +hv -- CH2O + O2
390
soil respiration
microorganisms consume organic matter in soils and produce CO2
391
soils holds carbon
3000-4000 Gt C
mostly dead organic matter
-another problem of deforestation
392
more soil respiration when
soils are warmer-- microorganisms have higher metabolisms at higher T's
393
warmer soils =
higher soils respiration = less C in soil
394
ocean carbon physical pump =
```
solubility pump
function of pCO2
most important in regards to anthropogenic C
```
395
ocean carbon cycle
biological + physical pumps
| sediment- circulation- upwelling- cooling- sinking- sedimentation
396
ocean carbon biological pump
difficult to measure/understand, largest cycling of C in ocean
sinking O matter from surface- deep- O consumed- respired- adds CO2 to deep ocean
397
long term ocean carbon cycle
CO2 drawn down in rock formation-- subduction--eventual volcanic outgassing
398
CO2 absorption by surface ocean
CO2 + H2O -- H+ + HCO3-
| ~1yr
399
CO2 more soluble
in cold water
400
ocean carbon physical pump
CO2 dissolved in cold, high latitudes, enters deep ocean at deep water formation sites-- cold waters upwell at tropic latitude- CO2 returns to atmosphere
401
medium term carbon sinks
carbonate dissolution
| silicate-rock weathering
402
carbonate dissolution
CO2 + CaCO3 + H2O -- Ca2+ + 2HCO3-
| ~6000yrs
403
silicate-rock weathering
CO2 + CaSiO3-- CaCO3 + SiO2
| ~300,000yrs
404
enteric fermentation
burping/farting
405
anthropogenic methane sources
natural gas, enteric fermentation, landfills, coal mining, manure management, petroleum, wastewater treatment, rice cultivation
406
natural methane sources
wetlands 76%
termites 11%
oceans 8%
hydrates 5%
407
natural CH4 removal
reaction w/ OH- (hydroxyl ion) in atmosphere
408
atmospheric lifetime of methane
12 years
409
methane on 100yr timescale
CH4 25X more potent than CO2
410
on 20yr timescale
CH4 72X more potent as a gg than CO2
411
anthropogenic nitrous oxide sources
agricultural soil, manure, transportation, wastewater treatment
412
natural nitrous oxide sources
temperate and tropical soils
413
natural nitrous oxide removal
breakdown by photolysis in atm.
414
atmospheric lifetime of N2O
114 years
415
on 100yr scale N2O
298X more potent as gg than CO2
416
water vapour feedback
very powerful, tightly constrained by Clausius Clapeyron relation
417
Clausius-Clapeyron
7% increase in H2O (g) per 1ºC
| leads to cloud formation and precipitation
418
stratospheric ozone
good, absorbs UV
419
tropospheric ozone
bad, pollutant
420
increases tropospheric ozone
by-product of chemical rxn's involving other pollutants
not regulated under Kyoto
warms
421
ozone atmospheric lifetime
short, weeks at most
422
annual CO2 cycle
up and down yearly- overall increasing trend
| lowest in spring/summer (NH) b/c there's more land-- more vegetation, NH dominates CO2 cycle
423
decrease in stratospheric ozone
more UV reaches surface
less outgoing IR absorbed
cools surface
424
[CO2]
dec 2014- 398.78ppm
dec 2013- 396.81ppm
annual average 2013- 395.51
annual avg. 2012- 392.51
425
annual mean global growth rate of CO2 in ppm/yr
```
70-79 1.3
80-89 1.6
90-99 1.5
00-10 1.9
2011 1.7
2012 2.41
2013 2.52
2014 2.43
```
426
1Pg
1 Petagram = 10^15g = 1 billion metric tonnes = 1 gigatonne (Gt)
427
1kg C =
3.67kg CO2
428
Annex B
developed nations
429
emission intensity
average emission rate from source, relative to intensity of activity
ex. g CO2 released/MJ of energy produced
ratio of gg emissions produced : gross domestic product (GDP)
430
top 4 emitters of CO2
China, USA, EU, India
431
current LUC emissions
land-use change, ~10% of total CO2 emissions
432
emissions from land use change by region
tropical - large increase since~1960
| temperate- decrease since ~1960
433
average fate of anthropogenic CO2
FF 89% + LUC 11% ----- atmosphere 46% + land plants 28% + ocean 26%
434
Canadian emissions of anthropogenic gg's
CO2 78.8%
CH4 13.1%
N2O 6.8%
PFCs, HFCs, SF6 1.3%
435
greenhouse gas emissions by province
alberta 34%
ontario 25%
quebec 12%
saskatchewan 10.5%
436
emissions by sector (Canada)
industry 36%
transportation 28%
electricty/heat generation 15%
437
per household emissions
vehicles 45%
heating/cooling 17%
waste 13%
air travel 13%
438
US emissions by sector
transportation 27%- same
industry 21%- 15%lower
electricity/heat 34- 20%higher
439
grandfathers of climate science
1824 Fourier
1861 John Tyndall
1896 Arrhenius
1936 Guy Callendar
440
it all started going wrong in BC
2012 Clean energy act modified, Clean energy BC conference (LNG)
2013 AR5, the pipedream
2014 Report emissions as rates
