Exam 2 Flashcards
(286 cards)
1
Q
When was the UN created?
A
June 1945
2
Q
How many original member states were in the UN?
A
51
3
Q
How many members does the UN currently have?
A
193
4
Q
What is the mission of the UN?
A
Peace, security, and international law
5
Q
What are the powers of the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council?
A
Drive the agenda, drive the debates, veto any resolution
6
Q
Who are the permanent members of the UN Security Council?
A
US, Russia, Chin, Britain, France
7
Q
When did China become a permanent member of the UN Security Council?
A
1971
8
Q
What are the keys of the 10 rotating members of the UN Security Council?
A
They are elected for non-renewable, two year terms, they cannot veto resolutions, and they have a more marginal role
9
Q
What are powers of the UN Security Council mentioned in Chapter VI of the UN Charter?
A
Promoting the pacific settlement of disputes (fact finding, arbitration, and investigation)
10
Q
What are powers of the UN Security Council mentioned in Chapter VII of the UN Charter?
A
Take action with respect to the peace, breached of the peace, and acts of aggression. Use coercive means (use of force, diplomatic pressures, economic sanctions)
11
Q
Who is in the UN general assembly?
A
All UN members
12
Q
How many votes does each state get in the UN general assembly?
A
One, no matter the size
13
Q
How are resolutions voted on in the UN general assembly?
A
Majority passage, except on important questions (2/3 of those present and voting is needed)
14
Q
What are Uniting for Peace resolutions?
A
Covene urgent UNGA meeting to consider collective action when the UNSC is paralyzed
15
Q
Why is there a rising number of members in the UN?
A
Decolonization, also meaning the UNGA is dominated by the Global South
16
Q
How many members are there in the non-aligned movement?
A
120
17
Q
What does Article 100 of the UN Charter say?
A
UN personnel are independent from their national governments and those governments cannot seek to influence them
18
Q
Who appoints the UN Secretary General?
A
The UNGA on the UNSC’s recommendation
19
Q
What was the election pattern of the SG until 2016?
A
Rotates from region to region with two terms
20
Q
What does the P5 seek in a SG candidate?
A
A candidate who will not exert a troubling degree of independence, and cannot antagonize P5 members
21
Q
How many employees are in the UN administration?
A
44,000
22
Q
What is the regular budget of the UN/for peacekeeping, and how does it lead to limited means?
A
$3.12B budget, about 22x lower than US confectionary and alcohol expenses, and $6.45B for peacekeeping, 1/3 of US monthly expenditures in Iraq
23
Q
What is the task of the secretariat?
A
Implementing UNSC decisions, mediation/negotiation, and Article 99 says the UNSG can request the UNSC to discuss a given problem (but this has only happened 3 times)
24
Q
What is Dag Hammarskjold’s contribution as UNSG?
A
Peacekeeping operations (1950s)
25
What was Boutros Boutros-Ghali's contribution as UNSG?
Agenda for peace, peace building (1992)
26
What was Kofi Annan's contributions as UNSG?
Responsibility to protect (2005) and systemic prevention of conflicts (2006)
27
How many Chapter VII operations were conducted during the Cold War?
5
28
Why were there so few Chapter VII operations during the Cold War?
US/Soviet rivalry paralyzed the institution
29
When did the UNSC have a Chapter VII operation to impose a ceasefire during the Cold War?
In 1948, during the conflict between Israel and its Arab neighbors
30
When did the UNSC have a Chapter VII operation to use force during the Cold War?
From 1950-53 during the Korean War, and in 1960, during the Congo civil war
31
When did the UNSC have a Chapter VII operation to impose sanctions during the Cold War?
In 1966, against Rhodesia for HR violations by a white minority regime, and in 1977, against South Africa, for HR violations by a white majority regime
32
How many peacekeeping operations were conducted during the Cold War?
113 operations with 500,000 troops
33
What did UN peacekeeping operations involve?
Civilians/troops from various member states under UN command, conducting various missions.
34
Why was peacekeeping less controversial than Chapter VII operations?
It's just about keeping the peace
35
What are the features of the UN's post-WWII peacekeeping operations?
They are often in the Third World, small deployments, they respect the local states sovereignty, and there is no fighting/coercion
36
How did UN peacekeeping operations respect local state's sovereignty?
Local states gave consent, there is no UN involvement in local politics, and no UN efforts to reshape local societues
37
Why did Chapter VII interventions increase?
After the Cold War, the US and Russia clashed less systematically
38
What did the Chapter VII intervention in 1990 in Saddam Hussein's Iraq involve?
Iraq attacked Kuwait (which was a violation of national sovereignty) and had views on Saudi Arabia, which would have left them with 44% of global oil reserves. So, the UNSC backed a US-led international coalition
39
What other sanctions did the UNSC take after the end of the CW?
1990s economic sanctions against Saddam Hussein's Iraq and 90s-2000s economic sanctions against N. Korea for their nuclear program
40
How did economic sanctions evolve in Chapter VII operations?
Initially, sanctions were blanket on a country's entire economy, but this hurt innocent civilians, and not necessarily local regimes, so there became a growing emphasis on targeted sanctions (arms embargoes or against leader's financial assets)
41
How has there been a growing activism against terrorism?
| in the un
Late 80s: growing mobilization, 90s: vs. bin Laden, al-Qaeda , and the Afghan Taliban, and post-9/11: supported US war in self-defense in response to terrorist attack, but in 2005, members were still unable to agree on a definition of terrorism
42
How has the UNSC covered increasingly diverse issues?
They have tackled HR abuses, HIV?AIDS, and global warming, but there are many disagreements, like how to define human rights, is HIV a security or humanitarian question, and who pays for global warming
43
What has the expansion of the peacekeeping meant?
They require more money, operations, and troops
44
What has a drift toward peace building (from peacekeeping) meant?
They are going to intervene to prevent new violent conflicts by transforming attitudes, behaviors, and norms in a direction that supports the peaceful regulation of conflict, meaning it is more ambitious and intrusive than peacekeeping. It implies democratization, state-building, national-building, and economic reconstruction
45
What is the rationale of the debate on expansion of the UNSC?
The UNSCs permanent members do not reflect current distribution of power
46
What is the main stake of the debate on expansion of the UNSC?
Creating new permanent members
47
What would be the potential criteria of new permanent members of the UNSC?
Economic, demographic, and diversity (+long term demographic) criteria
48
What are the key obstacles in the way of the expansion of the UNSC's permanent members
Huge geopolitical and symbolic stakes, how to avoid constant vetoes/paralysis, great powers still bypass the UNSC when it is in their national interest
49
What is the definition of human rights?
Rights inherent to all human beings, whatever our nationality, place of residence, sex, national or ethnic origin, color religion, language, or any other status. Human rights are a recently intellectual creation and an even more recent practice
50
When was the UN Declaration of Human Rights?
1948
51
What was the context of the UNDHR?
WWII
52
What does the UNDHR say?
No discrimination on the basis of race, color, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, or birth
53
When was the Geneva War convention?
1949
54
What did the Geneva War Convention say?
Protection of civilians, protection of the wounded, etc.
55
When was the UN convention on the prevention and punishment of genocide?
1948
56
Who invented the concept of genocide?
Raphael Lemkin
57
What is the criteria used to define a genocide?
Any of the following acts committed with the intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial, or religious group, as such:
Killing members of the group
Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
Inflicting on group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction
Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group
Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group
58
When was the UN declaration on the independence of colonial countries?
1960
59
What did the UN declaration on the independence of colonial countries say?
Colonialism was definitively discredited
60
When did the US endorse human rights?
The 1970s- in 1975, with the US making its foreign aid conditional on HR and in 1976, Jimmy Carter's election
61
When was the UN Convention on the elimination of all forms of discrimination against women?
1979
62
When was the UN convention against torture?
1985
63
When was the UN convention on the rights of the child?
1989
64
When was the UN convention on the protection of minorities?
1992
65
What changed in US policy post CW towards HR?
The US fully endorsed the spread of democracy and HR
66
How many states adopted new democratic constitutions between 1990 and 1996?
35
67
What did many say about democracy in the period immediately following the CW?
It was the only model of government with any broad legitimacy and ideological appeal in the world
68
What were the persistent limitations and ambiguities of HR following the CW?
Countless human rights violations (including by UNSC members), disagreements about the definition of HR, neocolonialism, persistent gender inequality, and few international interventions against genocides
69
What are civil/political rights?
Against state abuse and for political participation
70
What are economic and social right?
The state must provide essential goods and services
71
Why were there few international interventions against genocides?
Genocide is a contested concept, it requires dismissing local states' sovereignty, and it requires great power leadership in the Un and beyond
72
When/what was the Rwandan genocide?
1994- Hutus massacred .8M Tutsis, the US/West did nothing
73
When/what was the Srebrencia massacre in ex-Yugoslavia?
1995, Dutch peacekeepers abandoned their positions as the Serb army units surrounded a UN safe area in Srebrenica, leading to the slaughter of 8,000 muslim men and boys
74
When/what was the crisis in Sudan's Darfur?
2003-05, clashing assessments on if it was a genocide, China/Russia support to Sudan, and US overstretch lead to the death of .3M
75
What was the consequence of the failures of preventing genocides in the 90s-2000s?
International momentum for a new approach, responsibility to protect
76
When did the UN endorse R2P?
2005
77
What are the 3 pillars of R2P?
The responsibility of a state to protect its population against genocide, the international communities responsibility to assist the state to build this, and in situations where a state is failing to protect its population, the international community's responsibility to take timely and decisive action
78
What are the problems with R2P?
R2P interventions are difficult to agree on, and they do not necessarily create more stability
79
What happened during the NATO led R2P intervention in Libya?
The UN approved a NATO intervention to protect civilians during uprisings against Colonel Gaddafi, but NATO pursued regime change instead, which led Russia, China, India, Brazil to accuse NATO of violating the mandate for neocolonial purposes. Since 2011, Libya had had more instability, fragmentation, and massive migrations to Europe
80
What are the challenges associated with peace building?
It creates local resentment, causes civilian casualties, can aggravate corruption, real peace building would take decades, too many goals, creation of local dependency, and risk of paralysis due to the number of actors involved
81
How can democratization and state building causes tensions?
Not every state wants equal rights, not every local wants a strong central state, and many locals do not like foreign interference
82
How can foreigner's impatience hurt peace building?
Foreigners want to show success, so they focus on superficial things and tend to inflate results
83
How can foreigners ignorance hurt peace building?
Insufficient knowledge of local conditions, impose norms that do not fit local realities, local people are neglected
84
When did Afghanistan gain its independence from Britain?
1921
85
What was the relationship between the US and Afghanistan like during the CW?
The US gave arms and development projects to Afghanistan, but the Soviet had a larger influence. The US was okay with that as long as Afghanistan didn't become a Soviet satellite state
86
Why did the US not like the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan?
The US feared that the Soviets would use it to invade the Middle East, which was responsible for 25% of US oil imports
87
When did the Soviets invade Afghanistan?
1979
88
How did the US intervene in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan?
Covertly, they and the Saudis paid billion for arms, which the CIA delivered to Pakistan, and the distributed the arms to the Afghan resistance (the Mujahideen)
89
How was the Soviet Afghan war the first global jihad?
It led to Afghanistan and Pakistan's radicalization and the arrival of thousands of Islamic radicals from the Middle East, including bin Laden
90
What was the outcome of the Soviet Afghan War?
In 1989, the Soviets withdrew, but from 1992-1996, there was a civil war in Afghanistan
91
What was the US response to the Afghan civil war?
They estimated their new regime would be Islamic, maybe fundamentalist and opposed to the US, but there was a lack of interest, since the CW had just ended, so there was no US effort to end the Afghan Civil War, no economic assistance, and they let Pakistan/Saudi Arabia support local radicals
92
When was the Taliban created?
1994
93
When did the Taliban take control of Kabul?
1996
94
What was the Taliban regime like?
Deeply violent and intolerant, and hosted bin Laden and al-Qaeda.
95
What was the US response to the rise of the Taliban?
Informal dialogue
96
Why did the US decide to intervene in Afghanistan?
The Taliban refused to hand over Bin Laden
97
Why did the US pursue a light footprint strategy in Afghanistan?
No Soviet like entanglement, anticipating an easy victory, already thinking about a war in Iraq
98
When did bin Laden escape to Pakistan?
In December 2001, at the Battle of Tora Bora, there were not enough US troops to take the mountain. Other Taliban leaders, including Mullah Omar, escaped to Pakistan as well.
99
What were the consequences of the Battle of Tora Bora?
The enemy got a second chance and the US had to stay in Afghanistan, leading to the US peace building effort
100
What were the milestone of the attempts to democratize Afghanistan?
In Dec. 2001, a new temporary government was installed, in 2004, there was a new constitution and presidential elections
101
What are the problems with foreign led democratization?
Ethnic rivalries, insecurity, underdevelopment, religious traditionalism, and hostility to foreign interference
102
Why do some scholars argue that Afghanistan was a lost opportunity?
The US and its allies did not do enough in Afghanistan, because of the low levels of troops, police, and financial assistance. The Iraq waar also diverted US attention
103
Why di some scholars argue the US had overreach in Afghanistan?
The US and its allies could not succeed with its democratization.
104
What are frequent problems with foreign led peace building efforts?
Post conflict society has huge societal tensions, building a state is a long process, foreigners tend to impose their agenda, massive aid creates dependency, massive aid exacerbates corruption, and too many actors leads to paralysis.
105
What are the challenged of peace building specifically in Afghanistan?
Institutions matter less than tribes and family, corruption, underdevelopment, low education levels
106
What was Obama's approach to Afghanistan and the resurgence of the enemy?
Saw Afghanistan as a war of necessity (as opposed to Iraq), so he announced a surge in troops to reduce the Taliban's momentum, kill al-Qaeda terrorists, train the Afghan army, and reduce corruption. Also had the new COIN strategy. But the surge ended after 18 months and was flawed
107
What happened after the surge?
The US killed bin Laden in Pakistan (May 2011), but al-Qaeda survived, there was a rising number of Taliban attacks, some high profile attacks, and the emergence of ISIS-Khorasan, which was much more radical than the Taliban
108
What was the problem with Afghan National Security Forces?
The took a back seat during battles, high absenteeism, high illiteracy, high drug use, corruption, and multiple abuses against the Afghan people
109
Why was there declining Afghan support for US presence in Afghanistan?
Military occupation/blunders, growing civilian casualties, and association with the corrupt regime in Kabul
110
What was Trump's Afghanistan strategy?
Originally, a new small surge. But, in Feb 2020, he signed a peace deal with the Taliban, which led to US draw down, and eventual withdrawal altogether
111
What was Biden's Afghanistan strategy?
He recognized the war could not be won, and in July 2021, he announced US withdrawal. Th Afghan regime quickly unraveled and by Aug, the Taliban entered Kabul.
112
What were the main critiques against Biden's withdrawal from Afghanistan?
Should've made withdrawal conditional on an intra-Afghan agreement, and thousands of Afghans who worked for the US were left behind
113
What are the current challenges and tragedies for Afghanistan?
Security (Taliban and al-Qaeda relationship, should the US cooperate with Taliban against ISIS), underdevelopment, Taliban measures against women
114
What is grand strategy?
The intellectual architecture that lends structure to foreign policy. The conceptual logic that drives foreign policy.
115
When did grand strategy originated?
Post WWI, emerged from the concept of strategy
116
What were the two evolutions of grand strategy?
Thinking beyond the battlefield and thinking beyond times of war
117
What are the main characteristics of a good grand strategy?
Long term vision, global/inter-regional geographic scope, uses all instruments of power, articulates ends and means, must identify the states's main ends and main threats, needs to follow an iterative process (flexibility)
118
How do you learn about a states grand strategy?
Government documents or geo strategic continuities and patterns of behavior (debated)
119
What are the objectives of a states GS?
Dominant: Security and survival. Alternative: Expand territory, protect trade and investment, promote ideology, pursue humanitarian causes
120
What are the main instruments of a GS?
Dominant: Concentrating primarily on how the military instrument should be employed. Alternate: other instruments are just as important
121
Why do some think grand strategy is not possible?
Conceptualization is too hard and implementation is too hard
122
What is the dominant view of Churchill's resistance to Germany in 1940?
A visionary leader who convinced other British leaders to continue the fight against Nazi Germany
123
What is the alternate view of Churchill's resistance to Germany in 1940?
He completely misread the situation, overestimating the chances the US would intervene and unaware Hitler would attack the Soviet Union. He just got lucky, and may not have been fully rational
124
Why'd o some scholars see developing grand strategy documents as counterproductive?
Writing the documents is vain (need to satisfy everyone, reflects power dynamics, need to preserve the government's image, and need to avoid disappointing the public) and writing the documents can be dangerous
125
How do grand strategists respond to the criticism of GS?
It is still essential, despite problems. It enables a more effective use of national power, it sends strong signals, it helps compete against rivals, an dit helps develop a heuristic power
126
What is geography?
The physical setting for human activity
127
Why is geography important for GS?
It defines who you are, what you need, and how you can get it
128
What are the main geographic dimensions of a GS?
National Geographic features, location of foreign/domestic threats, geographic distribution of natural resources, geographic distribution of economic center, geographic location of main lines of communication, and other states assets and policies with those factors
129
What are the geographic assets of the US?
Huge territory, huge endowment in natural resources, weak neighbors, deep-water ports, arable lands, access to both the Atlantic and Pacific oceans
130
What is the big geographic problem of the US?
Isolation from the Eurasian continent
131
Why is isolation from Eurasia a problem for the US?
Eurasia contains many geographic assets that if a dominant state were to emerge in Eurasia, it would be a threat to the US, because the resources could make it more powerful than the US, so the US needs to project power in Eurasia to prevent the rise of potential competitors
132
What is Spykman's concept of the Eurasian rimland?
The rimland is where Eurasia's key resources/centers are located, so if they US dominates the rimland, it can dominate any Eurasian rival
133
Why do some believe the US should not follow the Eurasian rimland principle anymore?
Because it is expensive, the US should focus on domestic issues, and it accentuates tensions with some other powers
134
What is the current US grand strategy?
Deep engagement, with a. direct commitment to the stability of Europe, East Asia, and the Middle East
135
What are the main principles of US deep engagement?
Military dominance, alliances, domination of IOs, promotion of economic liberalism, and promotion of democratization
136
What are the advantages of US deep engagement?
Counter threats and rivals before they become too big, promote US prosperity and influence, spread US values, it's good for the rest of the world.
137
What is an alternative to US deep engagement?
Offshore balancing, get heavily involved in Europe, East Asai, and the Middle East only if absolutely necessary
138
Why do some say China has no grand strategy?
Chinese leaders are pragmatistists driven neither by ideology or belief. Too much domestic fire fighting. Bureaucratic, political, business elites care only about themselves
139
Why do some say China does have a grand strategy?
Continuities driven by China's historical experience, its political interests, and its geosrategic environment. China may have the most forthright grand strategy of any major power today.
140
What are the historical foundations of China's grand strategy?
Reviving China's glorious past after a brief period of decline. It's one of the world's oldest civilizations, and was globally superior in the 1700s, But then suffered the century of humiliation from 1839-1949
141
When was the Chinese Civil War?
1927-1945
142
When did Japan occupation in China last?
1937-1945
143
When was communist China and nationalist Taiwan created?
1949, goal since then, return to China's glory
144
How does China's communist dictatorship affect their grand strategy?
No elections mean a long term vision, high concentration of power at the top, so they excel at long term planning and implementing national priorities.
145
What are Xi Jingping's titles?
General secretary of the CCP, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the PRC
146
When did China overturn the ten year limits on China's presidency?
2022
147
What is the effect of all Xi Jinping's titles and overturning the term limits?
Xi is the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong, he's more open about China's leadership ambitions, and more critical of the US/West
148
What are the geographical underlining of China's GS?
Regime security, cohesion, rule the Han majority homeland, stabilize ethno-religious minority borderlands, protect land borders, push claims in Yellow/East/South China Seas, advance emerging interests in far seas beyond.
149
What was Mao's communist China like?
Brutal domestic repression and radical economic policies that often failed
150
When did Mao Zedong rule China?
1949-1976
151
How did the US emerge as China's enemy during the CW?
The US refused to recognize communist China, China allied with the Soviet Union, US troops fought Chinese troops during the Korean War and the US had a trade embargo, the US created alliances to contain China, US efforts to marginalize China from the international community
152
What was China's rationale for the US China opening in the 70s?
Encircle the Soviet Union, which had become an enemy, become a legitimate member of the international community, convince the US to reduce its military containment of China (especially Taiwan)
153
What was America's rationale for US China opening in the 70s?
Use China to contain the Soviet Union, use China to boost the US economy, and in the long term, press China to democratize its regime.
154
What was Deng Xiaoping's policy?
"Hide and bide your time" be Nic and patient with the west, all while bolstering China's economic potential by breaking with Mao's radicalism and leveraging the US/West's rising interest in China's economy potential
155
When was the Tiannamen Square Massacre?
June 1989
156
What happened during the Tiannamen Square Massacre?
Millions demonstrated for economic/democratic reforms, Deng Xiaoping opted for repression in response, leading to a death toll of 200/1,000/10,000 (probably 1,000) and US/Western sanctions
157
What was the impact of the end of the Cold War on Deng Xiaoping's policy?
It meant the end of US China cooperation against the Soviets
158
What were the policies of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao?
Continue Deng Xiaoping's "hide and bide your time", with a priority on economic growth
159
How did Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao prioritize economic growth?
Joined the WTO in 2001, continued to get Western FDI/technologies, which led to an expansion of GDP x 12 from 1990 levels.
160
Why did China have a growing resentment towards the US under Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao?
They resented US pressures for democratization and economic liberalization, resented US military interventionism, and resented US military encirclement of China.
161
What led to China's growing assertiveness after 2008?
The global financial crisis suggested American decline, the Global War on Terror exhausted America's resources, all under the backdrop of China's growing economic and military power
162
What is Xi Jinping's policy?
He is more assertive and ambitious than his predecessors, focusing on his goal of the "Chinese dream", growing centralization of power, use China's economic size to extract concessions, military buildup, and strategic rapprochement with China.
163
What is Xi Jinping's "Chinese Dream"?
By around 2035 to become a global leader in innovation, and by 2049 become a global leader in terms of comprehensive national power and international influence
164
How has there been a growing centralization of power under Xi Jinping?
Anti-corruption campaign to neutralize rivals, "reeducation camps" in Xinjiang, and new technologies for surveillance.
165
What was President Clinton's response to China's rise?
Growing economic and political ties, but restricted US technology transfers to China and upgraded US bases in the Asia-Pacific
166
What was President Bush's response to China's rise?
In 2000, he declared China a strategic competitor, but 9/11 and the Global War on Terror soon diverted his attention
167
What was President Obama's response to CHina's rise?
Pivot to Asia. Redeploy 50-60% of US navy to the Pacific, bolster regional alliance, but continued entanglement in the Middle East and Europe. The US also attempted to blunt China's economic appeal by the Trans Pacific Partnership (2016), but Trump canceled this in 2017
168
What was President Trump's response to China's rise?
2017 Indo-Pacific military strategy and 2018 trade war against China. Added growing barriers to China FDI in sensitive US sectors and portrayed China as a threat to humanity during COVID, but Trump antagonized many US allies and international institutions (which hurt its ability to work with allies against China.
169
What was President Biden's response to China's rise?
Continued Trump's trade and technological war, but revived US alliances, and gave a new narrative of democracy vs authoritarianism. Re-asserted US leadership in international institutions and denounced China's ambiguity on the Ukraine War.
170
What is the growing scholarly consensus on the China reckoning?
US policy since 1971 has not transformed China's internal development and external behavior. The US was naive to believe that China would become liberal, US engagement made China immensely powerful, and the US must contain China much more aggressively.
171
What are the counterarguments to the China reckoning?
Today's China is pretty moderate, the US has huge responsibilities in current tensions, the US industrial military complex is deliberately inflating the threat, and an aggressive US stance would be a huge mistake
172
How is today's China rather moderate?
It has not gone to war since 1979 and is the main trade partner of most countries
173
How does the US have huge responsibilities in current tensions?
The US violated international law multiple times, US political/economic interference is incendiary, and US military encirclement of China is incendiary
174
What is the relationship between China and Taiwan?
When Mao Zedong's communist won the Chinese Civil War, Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists fled to Taiwan, since 1949, China has consistently claimed Taiwan
175
What are some of Taiwan's domestic successes?
Since the 70s, they've been an economic miracle and are now a tech giant. Since 1987, they have been a vibrant democracy.
176
Do the Taiwanese people want to reunite with China?
While Taiwan has been growing in dependency on China, the Taiwanese have drifted away from reunification, so Xi Jinping's China has increased the pressure.
177
When did the US have an alliance with Taiwan?
1954-1979
178
Why did the US have an alliance with Taiwan and why did it end?
It was an alliance against communism. The US terminated the relationship to court China
179
What is the US policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan?
The US does not officially recognize Taiwan, and the US does not officially commit to Taiwan's defense. The US does remain vague enough to make China fear a US intervention and the US continues to sell arms to Taiwan if China seems threatening
180
When was the Taiwan Strait Crisis?
1996
181
What was the US response in the Taiwan Strait crisis?
The US deployed aircraft carriers in the Taiwan Strait to deter China's attack
182
What has the US-Taiwan relationship been like under President Biden?
More US arms sales, more US ships deployed, Taiwan's president visited the US, Biden said 4 times that the US would support Taiwan if China attacks
183
Why do some scholars say the US should declare it will protect Taiwan?
Strategic ambiguity cannot deter China anymore
184
Why do some scholars say the US should not declare it will protect Taiwan?
It could provoke the war the US seeks to avoid
185
What are the advantages to the US of pro-US Taiwan?
Helps the US control Asian trade routes, helps the US contain China, helps the US spy on China, helps the US defend Japan/Philippines/South Korea, and Taiwan's high end chips fuel the US economy
186
What would happen for the US if China were to absorb Taiwan?
They could reallocate military assets/money for other theaters, could project military intelligence further away, could mount a blockade against US allies, could absorb Taiwan's strategic resources, overall a huge blow to the US led liberal order, a blow to US credibility as an ally, and a victory of dictatorship over democracy
187
What reasons should we worry about a Chinese attack on Taiwan?
CIA director said Xi Jinping wanted to invade by 2027, China is investing and rehearsing for potential invasion, world class military by 2049, Xi may want to invade China for his popularity
188
What reasons should we not worry about China attacking Taiwan?
Xi wants to present himself as a global peacemaker, Russia's challenge in Ukraine could deter them, US sales of advanced weapons to Taiwan, the risk of US intervention will deter China, devastating economic costs of a war, and any failure could end the Xi regime
189
Why would China struggle in a military intervention in Taiwan?
Taiwan has one of the best early warning systems in the world, can reply its navy and combat aircraft, and has thousands of missiles. Not a lot of Taiwan's coastline can be used for amphibious landings. The local population would resist, urban warfare is hard, and there is mountainous terrain.
190
What is the military situation of the US, in terms of Taiwan?
The US has the best equipment, and many allies in the region, but US superiority is eroding, is far geographically, has industrial military weakened, and it's unclear whether the US and its allies would even be willing to fight.
191
What was the Russian empire like?
The Russian empire had a huge population growth and exponential territorial growth across Eurasia
192
What was the Soviet Union like?
Communist ideology with universalist ambitions. The Soviet Union had many continuities with the Russian Empire but was defeated in 1991
193
What was the initial post Cold War rapprochement with the US and EU like for Russia?
Russia reached many new agreements to reduce nuclear arsenals, Russia had a relative democratic opening, and there were attempts to liberalize Russia's economy
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Why did the rapprochement with Russia fail?
Shock therapy had huge social costs in Russia and gave them a growing financial dependency on the west, and the US/Western push in the post-Soviet world, especially with NATOs expansion in Central/Eastern Europe.
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How did Russia push back against the US in the 90s?
Protested US policies more frequently, rising oil/gas prices helped Russia become more assertive, and rapprochement with China
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How did Obama attempt to reset US-Russia relations?
Signed the new START treaty for nuclear disarmament in 2009 and helped Russia's accession to the WTO in 2011. But mistrust persisted, NATO expanded further, and this lead to the Ukraine crisis in 2014, which was a turning point in the relationship
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What was the Ukraine Crisis in 2014?
In February 2014, Russia took Crimea and destabilized eastern Donbas
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What was the US/EU response to the Ukraine crisis of 2014?
Huge sanctions and the reinforcement of NATO
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What was Russia's response to the US response to the Ukraine Crisis?
Military buildup near NATO's borders, closer ties with anti-Western regimes, nuclear modernization program, rapprochement with China, and a growing interest in the Arctic region
200
What is the argument that Putin's personality and psychology leads to Russia being aggressive?
Putin's mental issues, paranoia after his isolation during COVID, religious turn, or disease leads to Putin being aggressive
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What about Putin's life experience made him aggressive?
As a child, Putin couldn't stand being wronged, as a KGB agent, her was integrated into the dog-eat-dog culture, and missed the Soviet Union
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What are the limits of the Putin's psychology explanation?
Many Russians support Putin and he is not all powerful
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What is the domestic political factors explanation about why Russia is so aggressive?
Putin wants to divert the Russian public's attention away from his domestic failures
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What are the main counter arguments to the domestic political factors of Russia explanation?
Putin has always been rather popular at home and a war was bound to hurt Russia's economy
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What is the Russian identity explanation of why Russia is so aggressive?
Russia has a complex of superiority vis a vis the West (economically/politically), they were humiliated post Cold War, and they have a historical/symbolic attatchment to Ukraine
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What is the geopolitical calculations theory about why Russia is so aggressive?
The fear security threats coming from the West, included containment after the CW, and is concerned about the encroachment of the US
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How did the US contain Russia in Ukraine?
Since 2008, Bush has said Ukraine and Georgia would be members of NATO, and since then, the US and the West have attempted to integrate Ukraine into the West
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Why is losing Ukraine unacceptable to Russia?
Historical relevance of Ukraine, millions of ethnic Russians live in Ukraine, agriculture production, industrial/defense center, and Russia's Black Sea headquarters in Ukraine's Crimea, which is vital to Russia's access to the Mediterranean
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What is the counterargument to the idea that the US was making Russia act aggressive?
NATO was right to expand in the 90s (protect Central and Eastern European states, they wanted democracy), Russia's ambitions go beyond Ukraine, and Russia's current war objective is destroying Ukraine (mass killing of civilians, torture/rape of Ukrainian prisoners, deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia)
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What was Russia's goal invading Ukraine?
Regime change (remove President Zelenskyy)
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What is the challenge for the US and NATO in Ukraine?
Give Ukraine enough military/economic support and sanction Russia, but don't get NATO directly involved in the war and don't tempt Russia to use nukes
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What have been Russian military setbacks in Ukraine?
They have failed to conquer Ukraine, Ukraine has retaken 50% of the territory Russia had seized, and Russia lost many more troops than Ukraine
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What have been Russia mistakes on the battlefield?
Underestimated Ukrainian forces, not enough troops in the first place, Russia's brutal tactics stimulated Ukraine's nationalism
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What have been the deep setbacks of Russia in Ukraine?
Ukraine has become more Western oriented, Europe has become more hostile, NATO has expanded in Russia's vicinity, Western sanctions have hurt Russia's power potential, and Russia has become more dependent on China
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What are the main Ukraine war scenarios?
Ukrainian victories lead to Putin's fall, Russia defeats Ukraine, agreement that saves Russia's face and leaves Ukraine divided, nuclear escalation between US/NATO/Russia, and the war continues as it is for a long time
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Is Russia really losing that badly?
Since mid-2023, Russia has stopped the Ukrainian offensive and regained some ground, Russia has resisted the West's financial sanctions, Russia has more troops, China has given tactical support, many in the Global South don't oppose Russia, and how much longer will the West support Ukraine?
217
What was India like after its independence?
It was a former British colony, and had a traumatizing partition process between it and Pakistan. It had an 80% poverty rate, a 31 year life expectancy, food shortages, and massive illiteracy
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What was Prime Minister Nehru's term in office?
1947-1964
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When was India's independence?
1947
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What was Prime Minister Nehru's Grand Strategy?
Decentralized federal democracy to preserve political unity (from caste/ethnolingistic/religious divisions), economic self reliance and state planning (Soviet Union), foreign policy of nonalignment, and keeping the option of nuclear weapons alive
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What was India's non-alignment foreign policy?
It wasn't neutrality or equidistant but unwilling to join a Cold War bloc
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Why was India unwilling to join a Cold War bloc?
They didn't want to be dominated by one of the superpowers, focused on domestic development/stability, and a conviction that third countries could prevent a US-Soviet war
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What was India's international leadership?
There was prestige of India's nonviolent struggle for independence, they had an emphasis on morality/restraint/peace, and they took leading roles in the Bandung Conference and the Non-Alignment Movement (1961)
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When was the Sino-Indian War?
1962
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What was the result of the Sino-Indian War?
It was a huge defeat for India, which led them to a growing military budget and rapprochement with the Soviet Union
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What did the demise of the Soviet Union lead to for India?
It demonstrated the superiority of the US model, so it incentivized Indian economic reforms
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What were some post-Cold War trends for India?
India took off economically, India built up its military (+ nukes), and rapprochement with the US, but its grand strategy didn't really change
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When did India have its first nuclear test?
1998
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What are the main causes of the Indo-Pakistani rivalry?
British India's partition and massacres, civilization clash (Hindu India vs Muslim Pakistan), the Kashmir dispute, clash of political models (India's democracy vs Pakistan's army led regime), entrenchment over time
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What is the Kashmir dispute?
Kashmir is an area populated by Muslims but led by a Hindu, with strategic rivers and border with China, and eventually, India controlled most of Kashmir's population
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How has the India-Pakistan rivalry been entrenched over time?
National identities, education systems, and bureaucratic interests
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When was the first India-Pakistan War?
1947-49
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When was the second India-Pakistan War?
1965
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When was the third India-Pakistan War?
1971
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Which India-Pakistan Wars were over Kashmir?
1st, 2nd, and Kargil
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When was the Kargil War?
1999
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How many nukes do India and Pakistan have?
160
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What was the relationship between India and China like in the 50s?
Mutual engagement but growing rivalry
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Why was there a growing rivalry between China and India?
Tibet, long borders, democracy vs dictatorship, two major civilizations, and awareness of their long-term potential as Asian great powers
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When was the Sino-Indian border war?
Oct-Nov 1962
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What was the relationship like between China and India post Cold War?
China made efforts to blunt India's economic and military rise, China feared a potential US-India democratic axis, India's nuclear tests (which were justified by the China threat), and clash between expanding spheres of influence
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Why id there competition between India and China in the Himalayas?
India has historic influence, but China had growing economic appeal
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What was the Doklam plateau crisis (2017)
China's road project in Bhutan, which is still ongoing
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What is the China-India rivalry in the Indian Ocean?
China is far away, and India has local bases/missiles, but there is growing Chinese naval preference and economic influence
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What is the rationale for the China-Pakistan axis?
Encircling India, to reduce India's dominance (Pak) and preventing India from projecting influence beyond South Asia (China)
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What is India's strategy to deal with Chinese rivalry?
Military/nuclear buildup, blocking China's influence in South Asia, maintaining India's dominance in the Indian Ocean, and cooperating with other states concerned about China's rise
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What is PM Modi's foreign policy?
Acceleration of India's military buildup and growing assertiveness on China
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Why were there tensions between the US and India during the Cold War?
Us was frustrated with India's nonalignment and ties to the Soviets and US preference for anticommunist Pakistan
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How was there a post-Cold War convergence between the US and India?
Economic ties, democracies fighting terrorism, growing Indian-American community, and most importantly, India's potential role in countering China's rise
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When was the Indo_US nuclear deal?
2005
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When was QUAD 2.0 informal partnership?
Nov 2017
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What are India's strengths?
Economic/demographic potential, India's military
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How could India help the US against China?
Cut China's oil imports from the Middle East, destabilize China's southern flank, counters China's influence in Central and Southeast Asia, India's support would embolden America's allies, legitimize Biden's democracy vs authoritarian narrative, and divert China's attention away from the US
254
What are India's weaknesses?
Poverty, poor infrastructure, corruption, sectarian tensions, repression of Muslims, terrorism, borders with two enemies, economic inferiority to China, and a complex decentralized political system
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To what extent does India want to support the US?
India resents the US military influence, persistent ties to Russia, perception of America's relative decline, persistent attatchment to non-alignment
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Could India and China fins a modus vivendi?
Economic relations, China could help constrain Pakistan, perception that global warming is the West's fault, shared attatchment to national sovereignty, and resentment against US-led financial institutions
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What is an alliance?
A formal or informal association of states for the (threat of) use of military force, in specified circumstances, against actors external to the alliance
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What is a bilateral alliance?
An alliance with two states
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What is a multilateral alliance?
An alliance with 3 or more states
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Are most alliance offensive or defensive?
Defensive
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What are related concepts to alliances?
Strategic partnerships (less commitment), non-aggression pacts, coalitions, hedging
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What is a coalition?
Transitory cooperation (no permanent headquarters/staff/budgets)
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What is hedging?
Adopting ambiguous practices to avoid having to choose sides
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What are some international determinants of alliances?
Face a rising power, face a rising threat, to control allies, and obtain foreign assistance
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What are some domestic determinants of alliances?
Similar regime-type and ideology (facilitate common interests and threat assessments), domestic political calculations (enhance the legitimacy of a weak leader), alliances among liberal states are especially song (but different ideologies is not always a barrier to alliance)
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How are alliances institutionalized?
Bureaucracies have a vested interest in self-perpetuation and have an interest in task expansion
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How do alliances cause socialization?
Allies increasingly trade and exchange tech/ideas/people and members develop deeper affinities with each other
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How many allies does the US have?
68
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What was America's stance on alliances before 1941?
Alliances were seen as a risk and constraint
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What was the first turning point in the US stance on alliances?
Pear Harbor
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When was Pearl Harbor?
1941
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What was the US realization on alliances after Pearl Harbor?
Made US leaders adopt a strategy of defense in depth, or a need to have US bases in Eurasia to stem potential threats
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What was the second turning point in the US stance on alliances?
The globalization of the Cold War
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What happened in 1950 that made the US realize they need alliances?
The Sino-Soviet alliance and the Korean War
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What alliances did the US create after 1950 in response to the globalization of the Cold War?
NATO/ANZUS/alliance with Japan/CENTO/SEATO
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What was the stance of the US on alliances post-Cold War?
Renewed endorsement
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Why do some scholars believe that alliances are a huge asset to the US?
The deter adversaries, huge boost for US prestige, and make other states dependent on the US
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Why do some scholars believe alliances can hurt US interests?
Risk of entrapment in local conflicts, risk of major financial burdens, risk of allies free-riding, and risk of antagonizing non-members
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What are the main difficulties of US alliance management?
Tensions between military integration and political autonomy, different threat assessments, political backlash against US bases abroad, and cultural barriers
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When was NATO created?
1949
281
What does Article 5 of the NATO charter say?
An attack against on member shall be considered an attack against all
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What were US goals in NATO originally?
Contain the Soviet Union, prevent Germany's reemergence, create the conditions of Western European prosperity, and entrench US influence in Western Europe
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What happened to NATO post Cold War?
After the Soviet Union's collapse, many expected NATO to die, but there were new members and new missions for NATO
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What are the reasons for NATOs legitimacy?
The residual threat from Russia, new threats (like civil wars and terrorism), institutionalization/socialization, too for democratization, and prevent the emergence of an independent European military
285
Where did NATO go out of region after the Cold War?
Post 9/11, went to Middle East, but turned to Asia in 2017
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What factors could disrupt America's alliance networks in the future?
Relative decline of US power, the threat of Trump winning the presidency in 2024, and the threat of China's economic appeal continuing to grow
