factors influencing voting Flashcards
(13 cards)
significance of ‘events’
Harold Macmillan when asked the greatest challenge as PM : “events my dear boy, events”
event which damaged Conservative’s economic competency
1992 Black Wednesday - ERM (European Exchange Rate Mechansim)
John Major
evidence of partisan dealignment
2010 SNP take over Labour
2019 Red wall destoryed
evidence of class dealighnment
1964 80% AB (managerial) = C
2019 42% AB = C
1964 64% DE (unskilled)
= L
2019 35% = L
why has class dealignment occurred
reduction of blue-collar industry
1970s - 1/3
2020s - 1/12
Blair appealed to more : shift from class struggle to general social mobility
importance of manifestos in elections
1/3 people read manifestos before election (yougov)
1992 newpaper effect
day of election : (Sun) slanders Kinnock
day after : Sun wot won it
1997 Sun effect
“sun back blair”
Murdoch’s pragmatism : tend to back likely winners to retain influence with the government.
why has social media campaigning risen
2012 Obama success
since, young voters predominantly get info online
rise of social media
evidence of emphasis on social media campaigning 2015
Conservatives spent £100,000 a month on facebook campaigning
2024 disparity in money spent on social media campaigning
Labour spent £1.7 million on ads
reform spent £20,000
YET
reform had 1.5 million social media interactions
labour had 500,000
little impact of viral scandal in 2019 election
clip of Jacob Rees Moggs on Grenfell … implying Grenfell victims lacked common sense
which diff theories summarise how people vote
rational choice theory
economic voting
issue based voting
tactical voting