III. Tropical Forests

Question 1

How much carbon is captured in the Amazon Forest?

Answer 1

Twice of total historical US emissions in the forests’ carbon capture capacity.

Question 2

Evolution of Brazilian Amazon Over 30 Years

Answer 2

Brazilian Amazon has become a source instead of sink for carbon.

Due to deforestation for logging and cattle (land speculation). 15-18% deforested.

Starting in 2014, deforestation rates in Brazil started to return to near pre-2004 levels. Higher deforestation in Bolsonaro years after significant progress in early 2000s

Question 3

Amazon Forest on an Emissions Curve

Answer 3

The amazon region is very poor but emits like a rich country - it is off the charts.

> 50% of Brazil’s emissions come from burning forests which in big majority is the Amazon.

Question 4

Problems with Regressions Involving Law Enforcement and Illegal Deforestation

Answer 4

Endogeneity problem that means coefficients on an OLS regression cannot be interpreted as causal.

Law enforcement (L.E) decreases deforestation but deforestation increases L.E

To Fix: Replace/proxy law enforcement by the instrument of cloud cover since cloud cover has an indirect effect on deforestation through its effect on L.E.

Question 5

Results of OLS Regression of Cloud Cover and Illegal Deforestation

Answer 5

Empirical evidence that environmental law enforcement effectively curbed tropical deforestation in 2006-2016.

Question 6

What % of land currently being deforested in the Brazilian Amazon is being used by cattle?

Answer 6

90%

Question 7

Parameters that impact how much carbon capture you loose when cutting a tree

Answer 7

Based on density of the trees at the point

Distance from equator

Height of the tree

Question 8

Discount, Valuation for Forest

Answer 8

When deforesting, cost happens immediately since most of the emissions happen when you burn

But the benefits are agriculture over time.

More you discount, the worse the tradeoff becomes since you still pay everything today and you’re gaining things in a series that is worth less

So if you discount more for a given Pe, you will deforest

Question 9

Amazon’s Tipping Point

Answer 9

The tipping point for the Amazon is thought to be around 25%.

So if you continue to run like this you get close to the tipping point range within 30-40 years → cost of maintaining the current policy.

Question 10

Impact of Agricultural Prices on Deforestation

Answer 10

If you increase agriculture price, since it only exports agriculture, you always get more profit and less incentive to protect rainforest.

Question 11

Brazil’s Tradeoff Between Hypothetical Transfers for Carbon Capture and Agriculture

Answer 11

Brazil would be better off with the transfers than if it didn’t have a treaty and only faced the high price for agriculture

Transfer price ą$15/ton satisfy participation constraint i.e., accepting a contract to receive $15 per net ton of CO2 captured, is better for Brazil than going alone. Would lead to substantial reforestation.

Question 12

Why is it important to reforest the Amazon and put in place carbon capture credit scheme?

Answer 12

Amazon has a huge carbon capture capacity.

The problem is the next 30 years (think of stocks). Act now. Doesn’t seem viable to get the technological solutions that could help us capture the necessary carbon

We’re at risk of +2 celsius now. Brazil is only country within chance of getting Paris targets.

Question 13

Which species of organisms/trees are best for storing carbon?

Answer 13

Carbon doesn’t disappear → it’s stored. It will be extremely important how it’s stored.

Long lived species are the best

Primary forests have the longest lived species

Question 14

Why are primary forests useful for carbon storage?

Answer 14

30-60% of the carbon storage that is in the ground

These types of forests store lots of carbon underground which means it won’t be released again.

Question 15

Why should we be upset about permafrost melting?

Answer 15

Used to be boreal forests so all the carbon in the soils

But, now has no vegetation to keep it there so carbon just releases. Water is going to bring that out of the soil.

Question 16

Issue with Carbon Offsets Doing Reforestation via Plantation Forests?

Answer 16

Plantation forests have perfect rows of trees and very little else is growing + pesticides.

In a 20-30 year old tree you dont have time to have deep roots so when they are cut down again they release everything back into the atmosphere.

PLUS, these types of projects destroy every other type of plant due to pesticides etc. Loosing everything in terms of soil storage. Nothing being kept in ground.

Question 17

What would an optimal carbon credit reforestation project look like?

Answer 17

Reforesting primary forests

Or

Plantations that accept growth of other organisms that you dont exploit. Accepting very dense despite efficiency losses in your exploitation.

Question 18

Magnitude for Amazon Importance vis-a-vis reforestation projects or versus other forest types.

Answer 18

One unit of surface in Amazon saves you from reforesting 10 to 20 units in other types of forests.

Question 19

Impact of climate change on the capacity for forests to store carbon

Answer 19

Climate change is hurting capacity of forests to store carbon.

So that means first obviously right now we might get maximum capacity. In a lot of regions where it could dry up.

One potential tipping points of tropical forests (Amazon) is the moment where they are not longer big and dense enough to retain humidity and then they burn

Question 20

Why is the Amazon about trend?

Answer 20

As you’re starting to exploit it and cut down, you’re releasing what the plants have and what is stored in the soil.

Reinforced by fact that amazon has lots of long stores of carbon that are great at capturing carbon.

90% of what’s absorbed in forests is re-emmited in droughts and wildfires.

Question 21

Key Conclusions of Formula for Reforesting

Answer 21

Non-linear because have this less productive land but we’re always have a fixed unit of carbon saved for a unit land. Value increase a lot at the start then sacrificing more and more in consumption.

For low Pe (carbon price), we only convert cells with low agricultural productivity where the tradeoff is good and then as we want to convert higher productivity cells we up the price.

Question 22

How do we know we can stop deforestation?

Answer 22

There are large amounts of deforestation and if you look at different forests it’s not the same everywhere. When you look at Non-Brazilian Amazon and see 5-7x more in Brazil it suggests there are policies that can be put in places → not a process that you can’t stop but there is a lot of it right now.

Question 23

When do we reap most of the absorption for trees?

Answer 23

Early –> First 20-30 years