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The Science of Climate Change > impacts, adaptation and mitigation > Flashcards

impacts, adaptation and mitigation Flashcards

lecture

1
Q

definition of effect

A

A change in some aspect of the environment

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2
Q

what did boris johnon say about the impacts and consequences?

A

temps will go up by 2.7 degrees or more by the end of the century

we will see desertification, drought, crop failure and mass movements of humanity on a scale not seen before. - blames us humans as well!

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3
Q

definition of impact

A

An effect with a consequence

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4
Q

ipcc ar6 definiton of impact:

A

Impact- The consequences of realized risks on natural and human systems…Impacts generally refer to effects on lives, livelihoods, health and well-being, ecosystems and species, economic, social and cultural assets, services (including ecosystem services), and infrastructure. Impacts may be referred to as consequences or outcomes and can be adverse or beneficial.
IPCC AR6 Glossary

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5
Q

detection

A

can we detect a trend of the impacts?

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6
Q

attribution

A

can we attribute the trend to human activities?

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7
Q

impacts: list 3

A

crop growth

liveligood

hunger food security

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8
Q

Direct risks can cascade into …..

A

SYSTEMIC RISKS

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9
Q

Impacts and risks are a function of change in …… 3 THINGS?

A

hazard, exposure and vulnerability

  • They therefore depend on climate change and on socio- economic change
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10
Q

heatwaves lead to impacts on…

A

health

infrastructure

crop yields

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11
Q

impacts of more/less floods , droughts, wildfire

A

water supply

damage and injury

crop yields

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12
Q

impacts of snow and ice - less snow

A

water supply

infrastructure

tourism

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13
Q

higher sea level and more floods impacts

A

damage and injury

infrastructure

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14
Q

what are 5 example indicators of direct impact?

A

1 population exposed to drought

2 river flood risk

3 heatwave risk

4 cropland drought risk

5 maize heat stress risk

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15
Q

Future socio-economic impacts can depend as much on socio-economic assumptions as on the …

A

amount of climate change.

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16
Q

list 7 direct risks

A

heatwaves

droughts

floods

storms

fire

ecosystem changes

agricultural suitability

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17
Q

list 7 systemic risks:

A

loss of livelihoods

displacement

conflict

financial disruption

economic disruption

human health impacts

food insecurity

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18
Q

climate sensitivity definition

A

Defines temperature response to forcing
*Approximately 0.8 K / (W/m-2)

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19
Q

list the natural and anthropogenic forcings :

A

Natural and anthropogenic forcings
*Natural = solar, volcanic, orbital
*Anthropogenic = greenhouse gases, aerosols, changes in albedo
*Total observed forcing = 2.7 W/m-2 since 1750

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20
Q

whats next in reducing the rate of climate change?

A

MITIGATION

INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY

BUDETS AND TARGERS

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21
Q

whats next in adapting to a changing climate?

A

ADAPTATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

ESTIMATING LOCAL CHANGES

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22
Q

definition of mitigation

A

reducing the amount of climate change

reducing emissions / storing carbon

23
Q

list the 4 mitigation measures

A
  • Decarbonise energy sources
    Renewables / nuclear / biomass / hydrogen
  • Reduce demand for energy
    Substitution / elimination
  • Use energy more efficiently
    Reduce energy intensity
  • Reduce sources / increase sinks
    Manage land / Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
  • Geo-engineering
    Manipulate the climate or the carbon budget…
24
Q

GEOENGINEERING - HOW?

A
  • Mirrors in space
  • Aerosols in the atmosphere
  • Fertilise the ocean
25
Q

what was the kyoto protocol?

A

Developed countries committed to reducing GHG emissions by 5% over the period 2010-2012, relative to
* Includes measures to facilitate carbon trading / offsetting
* Can count emissions “saved” by reducing deforestation

The Kyoto Protocol to the Convention commits its parties to binding targets based on a ‘basket’ of six GHGs:
* carbon-dioxide (CO2)
* methane (CH4)
* nitrous oxide (N2O)
* hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) * perfluorocarbons (PFCs)
* sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

26
Q

prior to COP21 countries sumbitted pledges to…

A

reduce emissions

27
Q

what is COP26

A

Glasgow Climate Pact
Reaffirms role of science
Strengthens commitments on emissions Calls on parties to update commitments soon … covers impacts and adaptation too… …but left some things for later….

28
Q

what were the issues with COP27

A

Key issues
Pledges and commitments
Funding
very little progress – arguably backwards nothing very specific on this
Compensation: ‘loss and damage’
established a principle, but no details

29
Q

what is still an issue with these pledges etc?

A
  • Monitoring and verification as an issue
  • How do we know what differences the pledges make, and how do we know how far short they fall?
30
Q

advantage and disadvantage of global climate model?

A

Lots of detail, but slow and expensive

31
Q

advantage and disadvantage of simple climate model

A

Limited information, but quick and cheap

32
Q

2 types of emissions pathways

A

stylised pathways and realistic pathways

33
Q

definiton of the emissions gap:

A

The difference between future emissions and the emissions budget

34
Q

what are the effects of policy on impacts?

A

Reducing emissions has little effect in the near-term, but a greater effect in the long term

35
Q

Current policies would lead to an increase of around

A

2.7oC – up to 3.4oC

36
Q

An optimistic interpretation of plans leads to an increase of around

A

1.8oC.

37
Q

Net zero by 2050 to achieve Paris targets
Currently heading for ….

A

1.8oC at best, > 3 at worst

38
Q

what are 2 key issues

A

sources of evidence

climate science and climate policy

39
Q

4 sources of evidence> ?

A

*Observations
-Ground observations at points Earth observation

*Experimentation
-Relatively little – some relating to atmospheric chemistry

*Theory
-Physics theories of the energy balance

  • Models
    -Based on physical principles Validated, not calibrated
40
Q

list some more sources of evidence:

A

*Peer reviewed academic journals
* IPCC Assessments
* Text books
* Websites?
* Government reports? * Other types of report?

41
Q

issue with science and policy

A

the people with the responsibility and power to make choices need to be informed by scientific evidence - so this needs to be as accurate as possible!

42
Q

definition of adaptation

A

*adjusting to altered circumstances

Managing risk Managing resources Grasping opportunities
Autonomous vs planned Reactive vs proactive
Adaptation or increasing resilience?

43
Q

what are the 3 adaptation measures?

A

alter physical hazard

alter exposure to the hazard

reduce vulnerability to the hazard

44
Q

What do we need to know in order to adapt?

A

Is there an issue?
* What exactly do we need to plan for?
* When do we need to take action?
* What options are available (at what cost and
consequence)?
* How effective are the options?

45
Q

three key challenges

A

*Scale: how do we go from the global to the local?

  • Emissions assumptions
  • How can we characterise uncertainty? -How many scenarios should we use?
46
Q

issues going from global models to local climate?

A

spatial scale

BIAS

47
Q

to create weather and climate data at the appropriate space and time scale, we can use bias adjustment techniques in climate modeling. This involves adjusting climate model projections to better match observed weather data over a specific time period.

One approach is to compare the simulated weather from climate models with actual observed weather data and identify any biases or discrepancies. Then, adjustments are made to the model results to bring them into closer agreement with the observed data.

Another method is called the Delta method, where changes in climate projected by the models are defined, and these changes are applied to real-world data. This involves calculating the difference, or delta, between the model projections and the observed data, and then applying this difference to adjust the real-world data accordingly.

Both of these approaches help improve the accuracy of climate model projections by accounting for biases and discrepancies between model simulations and observed weather data, ultimately providing more reliable information for understanding and predicting future climate conditions.

A
48
Q

To enhance the detail of climate simulations, regional climate models (RCMs) are utilized in conjunction with global climate models (GCMs). Here’s how it works:

Driving by a Global Model: RCMs are nested within GCMs, meaning they use output data from the larger-scale GCMs as boundary conditions. GCMs provide the broader picture of climate patterns on a global scale but lack the resolution needed to capture local climate processes accurately.
Improved Local Representation: RCMs offer higher spatial resolution, allowing for a better representation of local climate processes such as topography, land use, and small-scale atmospheric phenomena. By incorporating finer details, RCMs can simulate regional climate features more accurately.
By combining the strengths of both GCMs and RCMs, researchers can obtain a more comprehensive understanding of climate dynamics at various scales. This integrated approach helps bridge the gap between global-scale climate projections and local-scale impacts, providing valuable insights for climate adaptation and mitigation efforts.

A
49
Q

what emission scenarios to use?

A

scenarios based on policies?

scenarios used to run climate moderls

-best and worst case sceanrios

50
Q

Problems with probabilities

A

Can we estimate the probabilities with precision?
* Can we apply a probabilistic method in practice?
* “Probabilities” are interpreted as forecasts
* A probabilistic approach encourages a “predict and provide” response

51
Q

An alternative: storylines

A

Build a small number of plausible stories describing changes in relevant aspects of climate
Problems:
- how realistic are the
storylines?
- do they span the full
range?

52
Q

Barriers to adaptation

A

Lack of awareness of the need to adapt
* Lack of knowledge of the potential changes ahead
* Lack of resources and capacity to adapt
* Low priority given to adaptation
* Lack of knowledge of adaptation measures * Institutional constraints on actions
* Resistance from other priorities and actors

53
Q

adaptation in the UK

A

-national adaptation programme
-climate change risk assessment 3 priorities

The Science of Climate Change (9 decks)

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