Kahnemann and Tversky. - Judgement Under Uncertainty Flashcards
(11 cards)
What are the three main heuristics identified by Kahnemann and Tversky?
1) Representativeness
2) Availability
3) Anchoring and Adjustment
What is the representativeness heuristic?
Judging the probability of an event/category based on how similar is to our mental prototype or stereotype of that category, rather that using objective probability.
What bias occurs when people ignore base rates when making probability judgements?
Base rate neglect - the tendency to underweight prior or background statistical information in favour of descriptive information.
What is the conjunction fallacy?
The mistaken belief that the probability of two events occuring together is greater than the probability of either occuring alone (violating the laws of probability).
What is insensitivity to sample size?
The tendency to underestimate how sample size affects the reliability of statistical inferences, believing small samples are just as representative as large ones.
What is the gambler’s fallacy?
The erroneous belief that if a random event occurs more frequently that normal during a given period, it will occur less frequently in the future.
What is the availability heuristic?
Judging the likelihood of events based on how easily examples come to mind, rather than actual probability.
How does vividness affect availability judgements?
Vivid, emotionally charged, or recent events are more easily recalled and thus judged as more likely than equally probable but less memorable events.
How does the availability heuristic affect risk perception?
People often overestimate the likelihood of dramatic, publicised risks and underestimate common but less newsworthy risks
How does anchoring affect numerical estimations?
People make estimates by starting from an initial value (anchor) and adjusting insufficiently, resulting in estimates biased toward the anchor.
What is prospect theory?
Kahnemann and Tversky’s model of decision making under risk that shows people evaluate outcomes as gains and losses from a reference point rather than final states.
