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Nagel: Unravelling in Guessing Games Flashcards

(17 cards)

1
Q

What is a p-beauty contest game?

A

A game where players choose numbers between 0-100, and the winner is the player whose number is closest to p times the average of all numbers chosen (typically p=2/3)

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2
Q

What is the NE in a p-beauty contest where p < 1?

A

Zero. Through infinite iterations of reasoning, the only stable solution is for all players to choose 0.

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3
Q

What does “unravelling” refer to in the context of guessing games?

A

The iterative process of strategic reasoning that should theoretically lead players toward the eqm.

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4
Q

What is bounded rationality?

A

The concept that human decision making is limited by cognitive capacity, available information, and time constraints, causing people to “satisfice” rather than optimise.

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5
Q

In Nagel’s research, how many steps of iterative reasoning do most players demonstrate?

A

Most players exhibit 1-2 steps of reasoning (Level 1 and Level 2), with very few demonstrating Level 3 or higher thinking.

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6
Q

How does Nagel’s Second Model treat Order-0 players differently from the First Model?

A

The Second Model allows for multiple types of Order-0 behaviour beyond just randomness, including focal points and other heuristics, rather than simply assuming a uniform distribution.

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7
Q

What defines an Order 1 thinker in the p-beauty contest?

A

A player who assumes others choose randomly (averaging around 50) and therefore selects p x 50

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8
Q

What defines an Order 2 thinker in the p beauty contest?

A

A player who assumes others are Order 1 thinkers and therefore selects p^2 x 50

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9
Q

What is partial reasoning or “order p” in Nagel’s Second Model?

A

Incomplete iterative reasoning where players begin the reasoning where players begin the reasoning process, but stop becore reaching a natural conclusion

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10
Q

What is iterated deletion of dominated strategies?

A

A solution concept where strategies that are strictly worse than others are progressively eliminated, with new domination relationships emerging after each round of elimination.

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11
Q

What is the difference between best response dynamics and iterated elimination?

A

Best response dynamics focuses on optimal reactions to beliefs about others’ play, while iterated elimination systematically removes irrational choices before forming beliefs.

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12
Q

What typical pattern emerges in first-round p-beauty contest games?

A

Most choices cluster around the values corresponding to Level-1 (33.33) and Level-2 (22.22) thinking, with very few at equilibrium (0).

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13
Q

What evidence supports the presence of anticipatory learning in multi-round p-beauty contests?

A

Some players “leapfrog” beyond what simple best response would predict, suggesting they anticipate that others are also learning and adjusting downward.

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14
Q

What statistical methods can identify different behavioral types in p-beauty contest data?

A

Mixture models, strategy classification based on proximity to theoretical predictions, process tracing methods, and analysis of individual consistency across rounds.

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15
Q

Do any players actually expect a Nash equilibrium in initial rounds?

A

Experimental evidence suggests very few do, as almost no players choose 0 or values extremely close to it in initial rounds.

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16
Q

How relevant is iterated reasoning in later rounds of repeated p-beauty contests?

A

Its relevance appears to diminish as empirical evidence from previous rounds provides direct guidance, with players shifting toward pattern recognition and experience based learning.