Krown 2019 Apr 28 Flashcards
(87 cards)
1
Q
Google trends Kirby
A
Google trends search for bitcoin: perfect sell/buy monthly signals !!
2
Q
STOCH RSI on W Crypto Crew Univ
A
STOCH RSI trendline governing force for priceaction for 900 ? days
https://youtu.be/xStxjNwFlUI?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1530
3
Q
MA on W how to judge BULL vs BEAR market
moon
A
20 SMA W SUP in BullM
20 SMA W RES in BearM
if break out with decisive VOL!!
21 EMA W ??
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=480
4
Q
which MA was RES on the bearmarket at the beginning of 2019.
moon
A
200 EMA W RES in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March
200 SMA W was SUP
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxctpt6wm3mz6ne/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2023.20.37.png?dl=0
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=530
5
Q
What was the SUP in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March when (after) 6k got broken?
A
200 SMA W SUP in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March
89 EMA W was before break (on the 6k level)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kxctpt6wm3mz6ne/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2023.20.37.png?dl=0
6
Q
Volume decline difference (BitStamp, Coinbase, Bitfinex)
moon
A
BitSTAMP, Coinbase, (Bitfinex) declining Vol with incr price in 2019 March, Binance not much, BITMEX not really
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=688
7
Q
Which MA Governing the highs in 2018 ( good marker for sell)
A
377 EMA 8h Governing the highs in 2018 ( good marker for sell)
8
Q
RSI on W in 2018 vs 2019
A
RSI W: i
n consolidation period (2018 July-Nov: BTC above 6000) > weekly SUP line
> later become RES: 2019 coming back to retest
Krown not an RSI person, but still prefers tp BB
https://www.dropbox.com/s/y8xfhy1g6qxrkq9/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2023.38.19.png?dl=0
9
Q
BTC CME Futures
A
More weight on CME than on Spot markets, the question where CME closes w/r/t spots > gap filling
10
Q
Weekend priceaction
A
not convincing, not by the profs, Futures are closed for the weekends; CME more important how it closes on Friday > weekend Bullish priceaction would be less important
11
Q
Rising wedge
A
Typicly implies bearish nature (Vol signature declining) and bearish divergence or RSI formation (LHs vagy vmi wedgy like form)
12
Q
CME close on Friday
A
13
Q
Candle bellow the SUP (Trendline) with very low VOL (Immidiately bought up next day)
A
Beartrap; usually countertrend coming soon
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ecilddzzws9yy9n/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2014.42.49.png?dl=0
https://youtu.be/AuOmUKg4gZY?t=2030
14
Q
Holding SUP but rejected on the 200 SMA on 4H: how to think about breaking the RES ?
A
4H STOCH up > more chance to break up through (around RES and just turn around the SOCHs > good sign)
15
Q
around the RES what to think
A
around RES and just turn around the SOCHs > good sign
16
Q
RSI (D) in consolditation period
A
bearish neutral zone > rather bearish consol
17
Q
RSI (W) in consolditation period is increasing but price little increase
A
nagy erofeszites and kis eredmeny > nem tul biztato
Ezt 2019 Apr 02 nagy BTC impulse UP elott mondta, what was anticipate by others >>
other readout: big powers are accumulating underneath which can move the price suddenly >>
prepare with breakout strategy
18
Q
GBTC priceaction effect on BTC
A
GBTC leads and precipitates Spot prices
we do not see as strongly in 2019 Apr >> maybe CME is better now
19
Q
10 SMA on 2W
A
governing RES for BTC 2018 Feb
not open and closed above it;
2019 March first time again to open/close above! > new bahaviour;
but 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down recently: paralell, no divergence, no convergence >> indicisive
https://www.dropbox.com/s/yrkblmk4rzdjsjt/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2014.53.45.png?dl=0
20
Q
21/50 EMA 2W cross down
A
bad sign; getting away > more divergence from each other > momentum even greater very bad sign
later development:
but 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down recently: paralell, no divergence, no convergence >> indicisive
21
Q
10 SMA on 2W open and close above + 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down
A
2019 March-Apr: cross down stronger bearish,
but test above the upper RES (in this case 89 EMA on 2W)
22
Q
BB W open/close medium line
you mean above?
A
usually implies the test of the upper line of the BB
23
Q
OBV upmove / in concert with a breakout of ascending triangle.
The Traveling Trader
A
safe trade with risk management; at least 2% move
https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531
24
Q
STOCs on 3D Krown
A
2017 Dec15: top after little top Nov21 pullback >> May 04 top >> July 27 top << all these governed down by a downtrendline >> now we hit it again, might break above? (2018 main bulltraps: May and Aug). edited alot : 3D STOCs: in BearM calls the TOPs:
2018 Jan, March, May, Aug (July 27).
can call the BOTTOMs too, if high/violant swings:
2018 Feb, Apr, in whole June staying down, Aug 10.
also called: 2018 Nov 24 bottom > price short swing up after but STOCs low > turned down again.
also called: 2018 Dec 15 bottom > price 3000; turn up untill price 4000 2019 Jan (but not hit the very TOP).
also called: 2019 Feb bottom: since > curved up > hitting top in 2019 Apr again
https://www.dropbox.com/s/t8moydr1ynntj2h/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.50.43.png?dl=0
25
important cross in 2019 Feb
50/89 EMA W \>\>. 89 EMA W still rejected in 2019 Apr
[https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1160](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1160)
26
important tests in 2019 Apr on M
10 SMA M and 21 EMA M \> so far RES at 5200$
27
equity generally BULL or BEAR
21 EMA on M (BTC under since 2018 NOV) in 2014 July under fo long more than a year on BitStamp), tested 4 times \> came up after the 4th 2015 Oct \>\> BULL; at that time did not play out as much, but beacuse BTC older now \> has more weight than then
28
M general governer for 2019 spring
50 EMA M; broke down at the beginning of 2019 \> if March close below \> BEAR; if above \> BULL
29
BTC new sign would indicate for breaking down in 2019 Apr (Krow)
200 SMA W \< priceaction below this, but not untill (200SMA W: 3500$ at 2019 Apr, price 5000)
30
"alternative" signal showing the tops
Bitcoin NVT Signal, only on daily; in average it does stay up for a month, but it could be up for months too.. http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/
31
good indicator for judging the bottom
Bitcoin Network Momentum when gains momentum \> the bottom is over, and for the next rally it creates a SUP line \>\> the next major top put in when it breaks down bellow that sup line (good indicator if we reached the top or not)
the bottom is in when two things happen: gains momentum upwards (happening in 2019 spring) + breaks above the SUP line of the previous marketcycle) \<\< not there yet
Bitcoin Network Momentum: value transmitted through the Bitcoin blockchain denominated in BTC value plotted against Bitcoin`s price. It serves as a leading indicator of Bitcoin bull markets.
Sufficiently high levels of value throughput is needed drive bull markets.
Network Momentum, if it was corrected for Bitcoin`s expanding token supply, would essentially be Bitcoin Velocity. In other words an inverse chart of NVT Ratio. Liquid, Bitcoin`s first sidechain, went live 10 Oct 2018, taking volume off the main chain. Thus we can expect on-chain value throughput after this date to differ from previous baselines.
Network Momentum is a view created by PositiveCrypto.
[https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1680](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1680)
[http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/)
32
and indicator showing the bottom is already in (2019 Apr 07)
BCHAIN/MIREV QUANDL: the value of the mind BTC; Bitcoin Miners Revenue
Historical data showing (number of bitcoins mined per day + transaction fees) \* market price;
when we chart it: the top of a cycle creates a trendline for the next cycle and it will be the bottom of the next cycle (we reached in 2018 Dec)
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/QUANDL-BCHAIN/MIREV/
https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/MIREV-Bitcoin-Miners-Revenue
[https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1900](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1900)
33
Krown's rule on short: never short anything...
had a Golden Cross + above 21 EMA D (Litecoin in 2019 Apr \< very bullish, bottom already in?)
[https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020)
34
Major market cycle characteristics for LTC in 2019 Apr
V shaped bottom, rally after with increasing VOL (despite of the Bearish warnings on RSI, STOCs)
[https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2043](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2043)
35
TF when in time palys out
on the D TF \>\> play out maybe in a week, 4H TF \> plays out in a day; W TF \> plays out in a month
[https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=188](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=188)
36
Agressive priceaction on Weekly TF (Krown)
I think opinion only: next dip will be bought up \> tries higher in a Month TF \> than turns down (opinion does not count in trading).
probably the pullback will be bought back quick \> that creates the TOP around 5500 after the 2019 Apr breakout up
when priceaction approaches major HOR RESs, major MAs, overhead liquidities \> caution!,
especially Daily RSI divergence is concerning
37
Bollinger Bands on W 2019 Apr (Krown) top/bottom band
Weekly candle closed above the top Bollinger Band (1st time since late 2017)
when it closes above (or bellow) \>\> comes back, retest and continue; the bounce is expected, the continuation is questionable (now the retest level 4800-4900)
[https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810)
[btc 7](btc%207)
38
Bollinger Bands on W 2019 Apr (Krown) middle band
Weekly candle closed above the medium Bollinger Band 2019 March end (1st time since late 2017) \>\> holds a bit longer, signs a bit of a change
but the higher TF picture governs the macro changes, governing the marketcycles.
people get exuberant and irrational \> that is the market wants you to be, create FOMO;
[https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810)
39
STOCHs Krown trendline on BNB
STOCHs on D: higher Lows \>\> all lows on a Trendline for 3-4 months \> governing factor (technically creates an Ascending triangle on BNB 2019 Apr, but he does not look that way \>
he looks, if the UPTrendline breaks \> comes back down to the neutral zone \> priceaction down..
BNB is the great runner from 2018 Nov
[https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=1159](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=1159)
[btc 8](btc%208)
40
What heppens at the weekend/after with BTC (2) (Krown)
Roaming around and after the weekend gets back where it started (he saiys so f. common for a weekend
[https://youtu.be/dwfzaTIV\_iI?t=178](https://youtu.be/dwfzaTIV_iI?t=178)
41
Damn good downward momentum indicator in 2018 Krown
SOCH crosses on 2D (critical zone above 80 + crossing down): 2017 ATH (20k), 2018 Feb double top; 2018 May double top (10k), 2018 Aug, interestingly we are also in the critical zone and crossing down in 2019 Apr 12
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/iahdrhv2bd6ep8b/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2013.17.16.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/iahdrhv2bd6ep8b/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2013.17.16.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/yEGA4EBSZAE?list=PLya0RSwza9DRrBq2w14PI2pmXgPLDAguS&t=6498](https://youtu.be/yEGA4EBSZAE?list=PLya0RSwza9DRrBq2w14PI2pmXgPLDAguS&t=6498)
[https://youtu.be/dwfzaTIV\_iI?t=508](https://youtu.be/dwfzaTIV_iI?t=508)
42
CME closing/opening
Friday 22.45 pm/Sunday 00 am; nekem igy latszott a TV-n, de az se bizti hogy az enyim a real time-ot mutatja
43
How to identifiy the market tops? when the time to take position(krown)
NVT signal D TOP (red) zone, it can stay for long \> it plays out when it breaks the (orange) average line (Kirby szerint wen breaks its up-trendline) NVT might have divergence on the top. Interestingly he looked at W NVT as well (not only for D?) STOCHs crossed down and reached the critical zone (80) downwards (also on Daily) \>\> 3 signal when in confluence
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/k5cqwe2y7r3oi9f/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2022.01.01.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/k5cqwe2y7r3oi9f/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2022.01.01.png?dl=0)
44
Not appropriate to be bearish looking for moving toward prior lows.. Krown 2018 Apr
untill break down bellow the 200 EMA W
[https://youtu.be/dwfzaTIV\_iI?t=599](https://youtu.be/dwfzaTIV_iI?t=599)
45
MAs in 2019 Apr after move up Krown 2018 Apr
Higher TFs still problematic: 55/89 EMA cross down on W and price rejection by the 55EMA
on M: 10 SMA/21EMA cross down
21EMA on M: if the stock is generally bearish/bullish
if close above 21EMA on M \> upside momentum
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/t3f3abocien0gw5/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2021.21.26.png?dl=0 ; https://www.dropbox.com/s/h y30sj9uz9fuq/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2021.22.04.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/t3f3abocien0gw5/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2021.21.26.png?dl=0%20;%20https://www.dropbox.com/s/h%20y30sj9uz9fuq/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2021.22.04.png?dl=0%20)
46
MA if the stock is generally bearish/bullish and BTC relates to that in history (Krown)
21EMA on M: if the stock is generally bearish/bullish; when BTC lost in 2014 \> capitulation \>\> rejected 3 times \> final breakthrough marked the bullmarket
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/d6nq6vtvri3d7yn/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2021.44.00.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/d6nq6vtvri3d7yn/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2021.44.00.png?dl=0)
47
Is the low in fr BTC Krown 2019 Apr
We are approaching a local top (NVT cross the average, STOCHs cross down and reaching the 80 critical zone on D) \>\> but it does not implicate that new lows will come; we can not expect new lows untill above 200 SMA on W; we can not trade for new lows but it could be possible; it looks far away now if it will happen; 200 EMA W was a RES: 2018 Dec - 2019 Apr \> broke out \>\> it will SUP now for a while
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/7v265hex505rq1m/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2022.15.31.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/7v265hex505rq1m/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2022.15.31.png?dl=0)
48
Importnat SUP for BTC in 2019 Apr Krown
200 EMA W was a RES: 2018 Dec - 2019 Apr \> broke out \>\> it will SUP now for a while; 200EMA W: purple, 200SMA W: white,
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/7v265hex505rq1m/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2022.15.31.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/7v265hex505rq1m/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2022.15.31.png?dl=0)
49
12H (720M) TF by Krown
Has a good weight (but he usually looks on D or higher TFs
50/200 EMA golden cross in 2019 Apr (last time in 2016 Sept \> $600 to 20k) \>\>
he does not trade against it;
21 EMA holds as SUP \> not against it;
usually Golden Cross is considered on D or above (but 12H has a very good weight on BTC)
50
2019 Apr 15: we are at a major point, almost everyone started to get bullish/ Krown opinion based on D, 2D, 3D
We have major-major RESs: 377EMA on D; 200EMA 2D; 200EMA 3D (rejected);
50 and 89 EMA W rejection and cross down; they are not diverging, rather paralell(it is on W \> takes time to play out)
if we lose it as SUP \> take down to the next big EMA SUP line (21EMA here) and the next target is the next line 200EMA \> buy a pull back here;
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/y5bhea42z54jwdu/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.14.01.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/y5bhea42z54jwdu/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.14.01.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ssc1rmz69wz9u3e/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.14.28.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ssc1rmz69wz9u3e/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.14.28.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/v0uswd4fyod0hb1/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.15.35.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/v0uswd4fyod0hb1/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.15.35.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=352](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=352)
51
2019 Apr 15: we are at a major point, almost everyone started to get bullish/ Krown opinion based on W
50 and 89 EMA W rejection and cross down; they are not diverging, not converging either, rather paralell \>\> \> not conclusive
(it is on W \> takes time to play out)
if we lose it as SUP \> take down to the next big EMA SUP line (21EMA here) and the next target is the next line 200EMA \> buy a pull back here; $4100 and $4500 are the targets
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/6emsnqgj07kgiie/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.18.12.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/6emsnqgj07kgiie/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.18.12.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=352](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=352)
52
How to trade the W TF
If we take out the low \>\> likely to come back down to the next major SUP of the HIGHER TF
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=544](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=544)
53
2019 Apr 15: we are at a major point, almost everyone started to get bullish/ Krown opinion on M
BTC on M: 10SMA/21EMA cross down and RES
the 1st attempt rejection is not a problem, we need to see if we close above it at the end of the M
(21EMA on M general bear/bull judge;
rejected here now, but it is expect at first attempt; if we close higher on M \>\> we can target 6k zone, if we close below \> mid 4k;
on M nothing changed still LLs, LHs;
when in 2014 lost the 21EMA M \> capitulation (took four months!)
we tested the 21EMA 3 times after \> only the 4th time broke through up \> bull market
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ownzct3fiqcwhq6/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2010.55.11.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ownzct3fiqcwhq6/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2010.55.11.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=594](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=594)
54
Krown: priceaction on M in 2014
BTC on M: 10SMA/21EMA relationship to priceaction
when in 2014 lost the 21EMA M \> capitulation (took four months!)
we tested the 21EMA 3 times after \> only the 4th time broke through up \> bull market.
the 1st attempt rejection is not a problem, we need to see if we close above it at the end of the M
(21EMA on M general bear/bull judge;
rejected here now, but it is expect at first attempt; if we close higher on M
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyv8wr2l1pwvudv/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.02.46.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyv8wr2l1pwvudv/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.02.46.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=594](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=594)
55
Krown looks at higher TFs
BTC on M: 10SMA/21EMA relationship to priceaction.
if M closes above 21 EMA M \>\> bullish.
the higher TF priceactions take a lots time to play out
(in 2014 capitulation happened 4 months later of closing belo 21 EMA M).
took also 3-4 times retesting before break above again
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyv8wr2l1pwvudv/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.02.46.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/eyv8wr2l1pwvudv/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2011.02.46.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ftemgzszlevizz0/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2010.14.34.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ftemgzszlevizz0/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2010.14.34.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/y40vlp4vdixsyw2/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2010.17.24.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/y40vlp4vdixsyw2/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2010.17.24.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=688](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?t=688)
56
Bottom signal on the market for BTC (Krown)
same as for top,just more precize: NVT signal: very short for bottom, green
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/c852yzyygdsyojx/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.19.47.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/c852yzyygdsyojx/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.19.47.png?dl=0)
57
Top signal on the market for BTC (Krown)
NVT + STOCHs.
Perfectly gets the tops, timing more complex, not immediate, need a couple of factor's confluence:
NVT signal crosses down its own MA, DAILY (2D as wll)
STOCHs crossing down and being bellow 80, the critical zone,
RSI crossing down it's own MA (in 2018 Aug H&S on RSI),
interestingly no bearish divergence on D in 2018 Aug an Sept, but on 12H there is DIVergence (on 12H always he says) \>\>
these signals are pretty close to the breakdown,
the Jewel indicator (if you have) on D gives TOP signal (see fig.)
on 2019 Apr 15: everything confluence, except for NVT cross down, but it touched/kissed \>\> still not nreak down
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/10jvkmqojtg5q31/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.22.50.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/10jvkmqojtg5q31/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.22.50.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/uh3ewbu9i5v2i83/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.29.55.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/uh3ewbu9i5v2i83/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.29.55.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=849](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=849)
58
Krown about 50/200 SMAs golden cross
He does not believe in SMA crosses!!
He only cares about the EMA crosses.
Priceaction should be pulled into the EMA cross (see fig.) \> spit out...
10 SMA/21 EMA on M BTC 2019 Apr 15 example, we just had the cross, the price came up to it to retest \> next move important: how bots/algos will react, sell or buy \>
if close above on M \> price-action above 6k (similarly in 2019 March we closed above 50 EMA on M \> upmove happened!!
Priceaction should pull back to the cross ($4550 \< confluence with other things asszem).
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ds1rczx1j690l3c/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.42.51.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ds1rczx1j690l3c/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.42.51.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/o3omhk9ue5n2e7j/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.56.47.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/o3omhk9ue5n2e7j/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.56.47.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1285](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1285)
59
Krown about 50/200 SMAs golden cross.
The main he does not believe in SMA crosses,
.. the first FALSE signals after a larger countertrend move.
(false signal 50/200 GoldenCross historical example 2015 July: price was not pulled into it (like now) \>\> failed;
tipically fails on the first one \> do not use SMA crosses, only EMAs;
Marketmakers use it to generate liquidity (many people "discover" the cross and inexperinced \> fall into the trap;
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ds1rczx1j690l3c/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.42.51.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ds1rczx1j690l3c/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.42.51.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/o3omhk9ue5n2e7j/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.56.47.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/o3omhk9ue5n2e7j/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.56.47.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1285](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1285)
60
When the golden cross. is legitimate?
if priceaction comes back and pulled into the 200 SMA BEFORE the cross \>\> legitimate cross \>\> LONG; the other case if priceaction remain above \> cross happens \> price falls/tests/fall bellow
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ds1rczx1j690l3c/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.42.51.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ds1rczx1j690l3c/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.42.51.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/o3omhk9ue5n2e7j/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.56.47.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/o3omhk9ue5n2e7j/Screenshot%202019-04-15%2023.56.47.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1285](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1285)
61
Krown CME example about bearish signs in 2019 Apr 16(MAs)
CME: weekend-less exchange \> easier to read (decent volume too):
Ascending triangle like formation; the upper line 200 EMA on D \> rejected \>
lost the bottom trendline of the triangle \> lost the 10 SMA on the way (now RES above)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/lo3xjgn76xkj0p9/Screenshot%202019-04-16%2023.35.36.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lo3xjgn76xkj0p9/Screenshot%202019-04-16%2023.35.36.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/I0k8Kovl498?t=1669](https://youtu.be/I0k8Kovl498?t=1669)
62
Krown CME example about bearish signs in 2019 Apr 16 (STOCHs)
CME: weekend-less exchange \> easier to read (decent volume too):
Ascending triangle like formation in the priceaction) but in the STOCHs too; upper trend-line is way above the critical zone \>
STOCHs rejected, started to curb down, lower line: rising SUP line, when it will be broken \> signal; have been playing out for a long time; RSI broke it's own MA
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/yhg15gtxwf4se30/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2023.37.19.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/yhg15gtxwf4se30/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2023.37.19.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/I0k8Kovl498?t=1753](https://youtu.be/I0k8Kovl498?t=1753)
63
BTC on D:
377 EMA and 10 SMA governing priceaction
21 EMA SUP
if break above RES \>\> probably above prev H and beyond
if break bellow 21 EMA \> pull back to the next RES bellow
break bellow: D close under or
wick bellow $5000
target zone: blue box on the EMA bellow
[https://youtu.be/8uzx7vEOBzA?t=70](https://youtu.be/8uzx7vEOBzA?t=70)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/do82m088v3kh4fy/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2012.49.16.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/do82m088v3kh4fy/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2012.49.16.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/8ewriao32ywnwla/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2012.54.59.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/8ewriao32ywnwla/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2012.54.59.png?dl=0)
64
STOCH setting
what is the situ with STOCH on fig
smooth:6
STOCHs curving down
out of the Bullishcontrol zone
broke bellow the SUP line
getting down almost to the Bearish control zone begining of 2019 MArch
[https://youtu.be/8uzx7vEOBzA?t=194](https://youtu.be/8uzx7vEOBzA?t=194)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/4a0d643dbgemovw/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.05.13.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/4a0d643dbgemovw/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.05.13.png?dl=0)
65
What about the RSI on the fig?
away from the exp for long \> usually doesnot stay away too long.. it might return back to the Bullish zone
losing the MA SUP \> not a good sign
breaking bellow the upward sup trendline bellow it
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/71oafkngkaijpf6/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.20.49.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/71oafkngkaijpf6/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.20.49.png?dl=0)
66
what is the price action on the fig?
shooting star dildo closed
follow through \> sell on increasing VOL and breaking through 200 SMA and 377 EMA
next day already came back to test above the 10 SMA, so far rejected \>\> maybe continuation down \>\> bounce back at 4750-4850
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/rsigdwdholnavh2/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.33.06.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/rsigdwdholnavh2/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.33.06.png?dl=0)
67
2D chart significance
might be more respected than D
68
STOCH action on the fig (on2D)
Very high, almost the highest in a year
crossed down
but we need to see to come bellow the critical zone 80 to have a full confluence signal
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/i8b1pkyiih4kimx/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.51.02.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/i8b1pkyiih4kimx/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.51.02.png?dl=0)
69
STOCH and RSI confluence for bear signal
STOCH (on D, 2D, 3D) crosse down and to come bellow the critical zone 80 to have a full confluence signal
RSI losing the upward trendline SUP and it's own EMA SUP
70
What important cross on the fig?
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/fploaw2887qml0m/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.59.16.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/fploaw2887qml0m/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.59.16.png?dl=0)
21 EMA/55 EMA up on 3D
last time: 2015 Oct
put a lotf of weight on it
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/fploaw2887qml0m/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.59.16.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/fploaw2887qml0m/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2013.59.16.png?dl=0)
71
What is dangerous in the short amounts?
Sqeezable! When we have a lots of SHORTs open: 30k short/18k longs \> danger for short sqweez
the most took the SHORT pos on the 21st Apr \>\> still profitable
but if we take out $5300 \>\> will go to prev highs and beyond, rocket fuel
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/5u5qdjzqdb4sjpw/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.18.31.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/5u5qdjzqdb4sjpw/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.18.31.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/d6ei8niup21ktq3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.21.07.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/d6ei8niup21ktq3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.21.07.png?dl=0)
72
CME Futures can be different, but usually..
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/gqnpi2r8qhuu2wh/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.39.23.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/gqnpi2r8qhuu2wh/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.39.23.png?dl=0)
CME usually cleaner
200 EMA rejection and close bellow 200 SMA, but very very low VOL
STOCH on D fresh cross down
probably STOCHs will come down to the trendline and bounce up
bearis RSI div already played out probably
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/gqnpi2r8qhuu2wh/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.39.23.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/gqnpi2r8qhuu2wh/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.39.23.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/3in4esgvu2205y3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.35.05.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/3in4esgvu2205y3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.35.05.png?dl=0)
73
CME trendline on fig
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/u022ko3m89e0lhp/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.45.06.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/u022ko3m89e0lhp/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.45.06.png?dl=0)
It would be logical to test even if Bullish..
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/u022ko3m89e0lhp/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.45.06.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/u022ko3m89e0lhp/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.45.06.png?dl=0)
74
RSI on W: what is unusual
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/88wxl8gg3dcwetl/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.51.11.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/88wxl8gg3dcwetl/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.51.11.png?dl=0)
Far away fro it's EMA for quite long (he sais 2-3 Ms \>\> related to the 60 D cycle of Bob Lukas?)
RSI level might be rejected here
could it use 55 as a SUP?
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/88wxl8gg3dcwetl/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.51.11.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/88wxl8gg3dcwetl/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.51.11.png?dl=0)
75
BBs on W how they catch the movements?
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/qjyuy8ucy8dp85u/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.59.14.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/qjyuy8ucy8dp85u/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.59.14.png?dl=0)
If price closes above the Upper line \>\> continuation
If price closes bellow the Upper line \>\> probably will test the middle line
200 EMA would be in confluence with that area
beacuse it is on W \>\> takes time, but keep in mind
if closes bellow \> respects the 55/89 EMA bearish cross as well on W.
insightfull: if closes bellow: target 21 EMA
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/qjyuy8ucy8dp85u/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.59.14.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/qjyuy8ucy8dp85u/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2014.59.14.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/2xe3tfszbv9efl1/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.01.42.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/2xe3tfszbv9efl1/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.01.42.png?dl=0)
76
Would we be bearish if closed bellow the Upper line of BB
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/vhdj7mna9z7csbi/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.10.11.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/vhdj7mna9z7csbi/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.10.11.png?dl=0)
Not much: we would target the middle line \> confluence with purple 200 EMA W,
but it was RES for 5 months \> should act as SUP now
if we broke that: next target: 200 SMA grey
if we broke that: very bearish
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/vhdj7mna9z7csbi/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.10.11.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/vhdj7mna9z7csbi/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.10.11.png?dl=0)
77
RSI action on M
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/heyasjzn4lpwtl3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.28.56.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/heyasjzn4lpwtl3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.28.56.png?dl=0)
RSI testing the neutral area
when we tested in 2015 \<\< first was rejected
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/heyasjzn4lpwtl3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.28.56.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/heyasjzn4lpwtl3/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.28.56.png?dl=0)
78
The SUP trendlines of previous market cycles..
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ecpe265adms0ktz/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.51.57.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ecpe265adms0ktz/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.51.57.png?dl=0)
Governing trendlines RES for the next marlet Tops.
I place d my FIB for the current swing(blue)
Krown FIB (brown) from previous-previuos market cycle top (previous cycle bottom) - to top \>\> if we tested the Golden Pocket along the blue governing line and 30-40 drop after (as in 2015) \>\>
F 0.786
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/ecpe265adms0ktz/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.51.57.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ecpe265adms0ktz/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.51.57.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/bocy3dyr3u68n5c/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.56.46.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/bocy3dyr3u68n5c/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2015.56.46.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/xnid9kwx2cdavze/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.04.03.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/xnid9kwx2cdavze/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.04.03.png?dl=0)
79
Is the bottom in? Krown
According to fundemantels: yes it is, but acc to technicals
80
Bitcoin Price Models
Converging lines \> like at market bottoms
Also flattened out their slope
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/xzfa1hd0ddco9ch/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.20.40.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/xzfa1hd0ddco9ch/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.20.40.png?dl=0)
[https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-price-models/](https://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-price-models/)
81
DELTA CAP
The Realised Cap minus Average Cap. Market Cap has historically touched Delta Cap at market bottoms.
When price touches \> bottom
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/r20taho27xp94tv/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.24.47.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/r20taho27xp94tv/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.24.47.png?dl=0)
82
Miner's Revenue
Every cycle Top (for Miners Revenue) creates a trendline for the right \>\>
Bottom for the next cycle
concides with price market lows
we touched it in 2019 \>\> calls the bottom
in 2015 ground low out (got close again for a while, but never really broke) \> we can get closer still
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/mgtf6idh9t13i2l/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.28.50.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/mgtf6idh9t13i2l/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.28.50.png?dl=0)
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/jb2u1aklv31j1xa/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.32.11.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/jb2u1aklv31j1xa/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.32.11.png?dl=0)
83
Puell Multiple
MA on the miners revenue
when gets into the bottom green zone \> calls the bottoms
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/f89c9n9s352vk0i/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.37.58.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/f89c9n9s352vk0i/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.37.58.png?dl=0)
84
Bitcoin Network Momentum
Bearmarket: when the momentum is broken downwards
Bull: momentum up + SUP (the SUP means that breaks above the momentum of the previous cycle)
the bottom is not just when it curves up
we need to get above the previous cycle momentum (blue) \>\> Blue
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/uszckdxf550etre/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.43.31.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/uszckdxf550etre/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.43.31.png?dl=0)
[http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/)
85
USD price and BTC relationship
DIXIE nickname
DXY
inverse relation to BTC price
DXY very bullish now
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/jnrq3jh9wnzao5c/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.53.03.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/jnrq3jh9wnzao5c/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2016.53.03.png?dl=0)
86
Krown about new Lows 2019 Apr based on MAs W
no reason to trade for new lows untill above 200 SMA W
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/v1eaxvkkydnriyx/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2017.08.39.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/v1eaxvkkydnriyx/Screenshot%202019-04-28%2017.08.39.png?dl=0)
[https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1670](https://youtu.be/FXpv-NzhsAo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1670)
87
OBV on W and 4H
Bbas in 2019 Apr 29
Amazingly Strong **breakout** in **2019 Feb\_March**:
hit **Res** in Apr \>\> where will it find Sup on the HOR or on the downtrendlines?
[https://www.dropbox.com/s/vj9j1u9e81s8i9i/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2015.21.22.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/vj9j1u9e81s8i9i/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2015.21.22.png?dl=0)
