trading workbook set of considerations rules Flashcards

Question

nagy erofeszites and kis eredmeny \> nem tul biztato; Krown

Answer 1

**RSI** (**W**) in **consolid**ation period is **incr**easing but **price** **little** increase (still there was a huge breakout up in 2019 Apr 02)

Answer 2

GBTC leads and precipitates Spot prices; Krown

Answer 3

**10 SMA** on **2W** governing RES for BTC 2018 Feb - 2019 March (breakout above), no open and close above it; **2019 March** **first** **time** again to **open/close** above! \> **new** behavior; but **21/50 EMA 2W** **cross**ed **down** recently 2019 Apr; Krown

Answer 4

bad sign; getting away \> more divergence from each other \> momentum even greater very bad sign; Krown

Answer 5

**10 SMA** on **2W** open/close **above** + **21/50 EMA 2W** crossed **down**: strongly bearish, but **test** **above** the upper **RES** (in this case **89** **EMA** on **2W**); Krown

Answer 6

usually implies the test of the upper line of the BB; Krown

Answer 7

**OBV** **up**move / in concert with **breakout** of **ascend**ing **triang**le [https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531](https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531)

Answer 8

3D STOCs: in **BearM** calls the **TOPs**: **2018** **Jan**, **March**, **May**, **Aug** (July 27) (2018 main bulltraps: March, May and Aug); can call the **BOTTOMs** too, if high/**violent** **swings**: **2018** **Feb**, **Apr**, in **whole** **June** staying down, **Aug** **10** also called: **2018 Nov 24 bottom** \> price **short** swing **up** after but **STOCs** **low** \> turned **down** **again** also called: **2018 Dec 15 bott**om \> price **3000**; turn **up** untill price **4000****2019 Jan** (but not hit the very TOP) also called: **2018 Feb bott**om: since \> curved up \> hitting top in **2019 Apr** again

Answer 9

50/89 EMA W \>\> 89 EMA W still rejected in 2019 Apr; Krown [https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1160](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1160)

Answer 10

10 SMA M and 21 EMA M \> so far RES at 5200$; Krown

Answer 11

**21 EMA** on **M** (BTC under since 2018 NOV) in 2014 July under for long more than a year on BitStamp), tested 4 times \> came up after the 4th 2015 Oct \>\> BULL; at that time did not play out as much, but beacuse BTC older now \> has more weight than then; Krown

Answer 12

**50 EMA M**; broke down at the beginning of 2019 \> **if** March **close** **below** \> **BEAR**; if **above** \> **BULL**; Krown

Answer 13

**21 EMA W** could **not** break **3-4 times** in **2014**; in **2018 Apr**: broke above the 21EMA W , but **bulltrap** (no significant VOL); **2019 Apr** \>\> broke **above** with very convincing **VOL**; the orange line shows the average VOL for 21 W \>\> way **above** the **average**); we might cross **200** **Bill** **psycho** **barrier** (now at 176 bil), I do not get how the VOL be higher than the peak of 2018 Dec...) 2018 Nov 13 breakdown from descending triang 6000 \> to bottom Dec 15 \>\> now went UP back to the 0.618 \> might test even above 0.786 FIB (5500 USD??) this 0.618 is the TOP of a huge M orderblock orig from 2017 Sep-Oct; Traveling Trader [https://youtu.be/hIC9JAwOh00?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=381](https://youtu.be/hIC9JAwOh00?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=381)

Answer 14

the **RSI** on **turned up** **from** a **down**ward **channel** \> **same** **level** as **before** the **2015** **run** (from 2015 in an uprising channel) **MACD** **cross** **above;** **curv**ing **UP** from oversold levels; Traveling Trader

Answer 15

**in** **BullM** **calls rather the** **BOTTOMs****,** * *can stay UP for long in BullM** * *..**

Answer 16

**Rising wedge** on the STOCH \> eventually break to the downside e.g.: 2016 Nov: 30% correction [https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=518](https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=518)

Answer 17

**200 SMA W** \< if priceaction below this \> bear, but not untill above (200SMA W: 3500$) in 2019 Apr, price 5000 so we are above); Krown

Answer 18

Bitcoin **NVT** **Signal**, only on **daily**; in average it does stay up for a month, but it could be up for months too.. Kirby looks when the upward trendline breaks [http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/); Krown

Answer 19

**Bitcoin Network Momentum** when **gains** **mom**entum \> the bottom is over, and for the next rally it creates a **SUP line** \>\> the next **major top** **happened** (hindsight) **when** it **breaks** **down** **bellow** that **sup** **line** (good indicator if we reached the top or not); the **bottom** is in when **two** **things** happen: **gains mom**entum **up**wards (happening in 2019 spring) + **breaks** **above** the **SUP** line of the previous marketcycle) \<\< not there yet; Bitcoin Network Momentum: **value** **transmitted** **through** the Bitcoin **blockchain** **denominated** in **BTC** **value** **plotted** **against** Bitcoin`s **price**. It serves as a **leading** **indicator** of Bitcoin **bull** **market**s. Sufficiently high levels of value throughput is needed drive bull markets. Network Momentum, if it was corrected for Bitcoin`s expanding token supply, would essentially be **Bitcoin Velocity**. In other words an **inverse** **chart** of **NVT** **Ratio**. **Liquid**, Bitcoin`s first **sidechain**, went live 10 **Oct 2018**, taking volume off the main chain. Thus we can expect on-chain value throughput after this date to differ from previous baselines. Network Momentum is a view **created** by **PositiveCrypto**. [http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/](http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/); Krown [https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1680](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1680)

Answer 20

**BCHAIN****/****MIREV** **QUANDL**: the value of the mind BTC; **Bitcoin Miners Revenue**; Historical data showing (number of **bitcoins** **mined** **per** **day** + **transaction fees**) **\*** **market** **price**; when we **chart** it: the **top** of a **cycle** **creates** a **trendline** **for** the **next** **cycle** and it will be the **bottom** of the next cycle (we **reached** in **2018 Dec**) [https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/QUANDL-BCHAIN/MIREV/](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/QUANDL-BCHAIN/MIREV/); [https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/MIREV-Bitcoin-Miners-Revenue](https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/MIREV-Bitcoin-Miners-Revenue); Krown [https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1900](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1900)

Answer 21

had a **Golden Cross** **+** **above** **21** **EMA D** (Litecoin in 2019 Apr \< very bullish does it imply that the bottom already in?); Krown [https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020)

Answer 22

**V shaped** **bottom**, **rally** after with **incr**easing **VOL** (**despite** of the Bearish warnings on **RSI**, **STOCs**); Krown [https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2043](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020)

Answer 23

on the **D TF** \>\> play out maybe in a **week**, **4H TF** \> plays out in a **day**; **W TF** \> plays out in a **month**; Krown [https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=188](https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020)

Answer 24

I think **opinion** only: next **dip** will be **bought** **up** \> tries **higher** in a **Month** TF \> than turns down (opinion does not count in trading); probably the **pullback** will be **bought** **back** quick \> that **creates** the **TOP** around **5500** after the 2019 Apr breakout up; when priceaction approaches **major** **HOR RESs**, major **MAs**, **overhead** **liquidities** \> **caution**!, especially **Daily** **RSI** **diverg**ence is concerning; (Krown)

Answer 25

**Weekly** candle **closed** **above** the **top** **B**ollinger **B**and (**1st** time **since** late **2017**); when it closes above (or bellow) \>\> comes **back**, **retest** and continue; the **bounce** is **expected**, the **continuation** is **questionable** (now the retest level 4800-4900); (Krown) [https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810)

Answer 26

**Weekly** candle **closed** **above** the **medium** **B**ollinger **B**and 2019 March end (**1st** time **since** late **2017**) \>\> Krown holds his longs a bit longer, **signs** a bit of a **change**; but the **higher TF** picture **governs** the **macro** changes, governing the **marketcycles**; people can get **exuberant** and **irrational** already now \> that is the market wants you to be, **create** **FOMO**; (Krown) [https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810)

Answer 27

**STOCHs** on **D**: **Higher** **Lows** \>\> all lows on a Trendline for 3-4 months \> **governing fact**or (technically creates an **Ascending** **triang**le on BNB 2019 Apr, but he does not look that way \> he looks, **if** the **UP-Trendline** **breaks** \> comes back down to the **neutral** **zone** \> **priceaction** down..; BNB is the great runner from 2018 Nov; (Krown) [https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=1159](https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=1159)

Answer 28

Does **not** **mean** **much** \>\> they **can** **stay** for **long**. Enter into a **trade** **when** the momentum indicator not at the bottom/top, but started to **shift**. Impossible to call the bottom/top, with need to see when the momentum starts to shift \> **ride** the momentum (**2013** **begining** of the year Dec-March Apr: **STOCH** **RSI W** up on **max** \> price **30x** in the meantime; **wait** **for** the **downcross**; Moon [https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=222](https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=222)

Answer 29

Rising channel on D \> when break downwards \> correction; 4h HOR RES around 70, acts as RES in 2019 Apr (except a bigger fakeout on 2019 Apr 02, when big breakout UP); actually ranging between RSI 57 and 70 in a channel; in the meantime ChartChampion strategy is to trade an UPward rising channel, the bounces between the low and the highs within the range; breakout in the RSI \> can lead to breaout in the priceaction as well; triangles also work with RSI; on 1h RSI divergence \> did not lead to breakdown..; when Krown saw the D RSI divergence on the 9 Apr 2019 \> considered the local top; he does not like the DIV on Daily; Mon https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=602

Answer 30

I have the **feeling**, that **when** **RSI** **not** **simply** **bouncing** up/down, but start to print **HIGHER** **LOWs** \> **priceaction** follows; Bbas

Answer 31

**NVT** **signal** is lagging indicator, can **take** some **time** to play out (ellentmondas), but he wants to say, not when it goes up and turns to RED, but he uses **trendlines** **on** the **way** it goes up \> when that **trendline** is **broken** with a **sideways** movement \<\< better **signal** for calling the **top**; top when **UP trendline** of **NVT signal** is **broken** (only on **Daily** usefull); Kirby [https://youtu.be/xO7u0J4ApXI?t=781](https://youtu.be/xO7u0J4ApXI?t=781)

Answer 32

W wave down from ATH (2017 Dec 22) \>\> FIB extension downwards \> 1.618 ($6100) \>\> Bull Trap Top in 2018 March (Zero level for FIB ext) from Bottom of 2018 Apr (1 level for FIB ext) \>\> 1.618 takes us down to the 3000 level (2018 Dec 15) \>\> he likes that 1.618 was hit twice, symmetry; Wave 618; 2019 Apr 11 [https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl.](https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl.)[https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MPapcOvO/](https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MPapcOvO/)

Answer 33

After the 1st wave down main W came down to 1.236, than X \>\> another major W: this extension 1.236 (Capitulation here); Symmetry; Wave 618; 2019 Apr 12 https://youtu.be/VOUq8OBtcGM?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=235

Answer 34

The count is similar to the one of 2014, with some timeshifts; TradeDevil [https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=282](https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=282) [https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggpqifhgxj83ge3/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.50.09.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggpqifhgxj83ge3/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.50.09.png?dl=0)

Answer 35

Algo reactions from all swing high to swing low extensions; TradeDevil https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=541 [https://www.dropbox.com/s/lt667lzippj7t1u/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.55.33.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/lt667lzippj7t1u/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.55.33.png?dl=0)

Answer 36

Algo reactions from all swing high to swing low extensions; TradeDevil [https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=657](https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=657)[https://www.dropbox.com/s/mx9nhvwtkaxdvat/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.56.51.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/mx9nhvwtkaxdvat/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.56.51.png?dl=0)

Answer 37

MT4, Esignal, Tradestation, NT8; For the MT4 chart he commonly uses:https://www.markets.com/ (Bot trading activity can corrupt the charts, we can see different levels, dimensions what can not be seen.2019 Apr after the breakout: BTC is above the 200 SMA on D on Tradingview, on MTF (he calls weekend eliminated chart) hugging (testing, but not above) the 200 SMA; important level: 2018 Feb bounced back from it; also testing key levels on W: 55 and 100 SMA (they almost crossed, but 55 MA just curved up (might have been only a kiss..) 21 SMA on M being tested; Alessio Rastani https://www.markets.com/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC04WfmZJh8&list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&index=5 MT4, Esignal, Tradestation, NT8; For the MT4 chart he commonly uses:https://www.markets.com/ (Bot trading activity can corrupt the charts, we can see different levels, dimensions what can not be seen.2019 Apr after the breakout: BTC is above the 200 SMA on D on Tradingview, on MTF (he calls weekend eliminated chart) hugging (testing, but not above) the 200 SMA; important level: 2018 Feb bounced back from it; also testing key levels on W: 55 and 100 SMA (they almost crossed, but 55 MA just curved up (might have been only a kiss..) 21 SMA on M being tested; Alessio Rastani https://www.markets.com/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC04WfmZJh8&list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&index=5

Answer 38

Great VOL!, Bollinger Bands: if the bands are squeezed \> high probality of breakout (spot the price exceeding the upper band with good Vol, he also add Keltner Channels to the BB, when BBs get inside the Keltner channels \> breakout, certain indicators built to show this squeeze effect; Chopiness index by far his favorit, high Chop indicates nonlinearity and imminent price movement; RSI in Laguerre time with Embedded Fractal ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/zcgfwLJGS1A?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl Great VOL!, Bollinger Bands: if the bands are squeezed \> high probality of breakout (spot the price exceeding the upper band with good Vol, he also add Keltner Channels to the BB, when BBs get inside the Keltner channels \> breakout, certain indicators built to show this squeeze effect; Chopiness index by far his favorit, high Chop indicates nonlinearity and imminent price movement; RSI in Laguerre time with Embedded Fractal ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/zcgfwLJGS1A?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl

Answer 39

PULLBack strategy when you buy the dip \>\> Oscillators: deeply oversold and crossed to the upside: STOCH, SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index), RSI in Laguerre Time (favourit): not based on linear time-series, most responses, signal when the RSI turns up from the oversold zone (CHOP\_LRSI on TV); Doc likes to trade in the direction of the anchor chart swing (the larger TF) + Risk management; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM PULLBack strategy when you buy the dip \>\> Oscillators: deeply oversold and crossed to the upside: STOCH, SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index), RSI in Laguerre Time (favourit): not based on linear time-series, most responses, signal when the RSI turns up from the oversold zone (CHOP\_LRSI on TV); Doc likes to trade in the direction of the anchor chart swing (the larger TF) + Risk management; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM

Answer 40

On TV many strategies: Greedy strategy, Inside bar strategy, Keltner Channel strategy, Momentum strategy, Parabolic SAR strategy (vagy Outside bar not sure which indicated); ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM On TV many strategies: Greedy strategy, Inside bar strategy, Keltner Channel strategy, Momentum strategy, Parabolic SAR strategy (vagy Outside bar not sure which indicated); ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM

Answer 41

Kirby sees an Ascending triangle (Flat top and HLs) on 4H \< Bullish pattern, I rather feel, this is a Rising Wedge, but very close; concern: RSI is overbought and H&S pattern; bullish priceaction, bearish pattern on RSI on 4H and D (overbought) and on W (hitting the RES of the SUP zone of the parabolic previous cycle); if price moves up target: 5450 (the Res upwards for the potential break up in 2019 Apr (5450 is a consolidation range during the 2018 Nov breakdown); 5450: RES in priceaction, multiple RESs on RSI, NVT signal TOP red zone; 4200 and 4500 already taken out; 5450 zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks on 4H \> BOTs and market makers taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); not Bull market yet: 1: two RES zones (5450 and 6000), under the 50 MA W and the 100 MA W; RSI W hitting the RES zone of 2016-2017 SUP; ; Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=904 Kirby sees an Ascending triangle (Flat top and HLs) on 4H \< Bullish pattern, I rather feel, this is a Rising Wedge, but very close; concern: RSI is overbought and H&S pattern; bullish priceaction, bearish pattern on RSI on 4H and D (overbought) and on W (hitting the RES of the SUP zone of the parabolic previous cycle); if price moves up target: 5450 (the Res upwards for the potential break up in 2019 Apr (5450 is a consolidation range during the 2018 Nov breakdown); 5450: RES in priceaction, multiple RESs on RSI, NVT signal TOP red zone; 4200 and 4500 already taken out; 5450 zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks on 4H \> BOTs and market makers taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); not Bull market yet: 1: two RES zones (5450 and 6000), under the 50 MA W and the 100 MA W; RSI W hitting the RES zone of 2016-2017 SUP; ; Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=904

Answer 42

zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks \> BOTs and algos taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=905 zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks \> BOTs and algos taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=905

Answer 43

50 SMA on W (on BitSTAMP and on Total Market CAP Excluding ! BTC (TV) on the latter: 2015 middle crossed up, came down, crossed back above less, came down, crossed up less later \> korbetancolta majd \>\> crossed up and full BULL from 2016; Haejin Lee; Tons more analysis on my blog: https://steemit.com/@haejin For Real Time Alerts, follow me on Twitter: @haejin\_crypto https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl. 50 SMA on W (on BitSTAMP and on Total Market CAP Excluding ! BTC (TV) on the latter: 2015 middle crossed up, came down, crossed back above less, came down, crossed up less later \> korbetancolta majd \>\> crossed up and full BULL from 2016; Haejin Lee; Tons more analysis on my blog: https://steemit.com/@haejin For Real Time Alerts, follow me on Twitter: @haejin\_crypto https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl.

Answer 44

Miners Revenue (**MIREV**), not enough, in **2015** it was **hugging**, **holding** the previous cycle high RES for long \> we might get back to this RES line; ## Footnote [https://www.dropbox.com/s/gv5wng18feddrk9/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2023.38.36.png?dl=0; https://youtu.be/\_vXyVqjLOXg?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=953](https://www.dropbox.com/s/gv5wng18feddrk9/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2023.38.36.png?dl=0;%20https://youtu.be/_vXyVqjLOXg?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=953)

Answer 45

2018 Dec- 2019 March an ascending triangle formed \> breakout up on Apr 02 \>\> another ascending triangle like pattern forming (it looked very wedgy though, depending on the market/looks asc triang on BitStamp): possible breakout from this \> before trading WAIT for VOLUME CONFIRMATION! : sell off on Apr 10 \> seemed that break out down from the wedge pattern, but she things, that no breakout happened, because the declining VOL simply remained under the (orange) average line; declining volume during the pattern \> consolidation, it might seemed that we broke out of the triangle, but NO Breakout if NO VOL \>\> simply the consolidation continues in a different pattern; dobe4ever Apr 11, 2019 [https://www.dropbox.com/s/u1jsj2lvcto8rg1/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2020.56.54.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/u1jsj2lvcto8rg1/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2020.56.54.png?dl=0)

Answer 46

Measure the swing on two timeframes (W & D, from where the weekly swing strated and from where the daily swing started \> to the top): find confluence: W F0.382 and D F0.5 confluence \> VPVR shows empty space under the confluence). Range extension to the upside \> followed by range expansion on he top, pull back, but what pull back is still ok? \> remain long untill pullback to the confluence of FIBs (empty space under and lose the Fib SUP if price goes lower \> great chance to drop a lot ; [https://youtu.be/FJkKgvlsBiM?t=157](https://youtu.be/FJkKgvlsBiM?t=157) [https://www.dropbox.com/s/typ0v3g0lm743ip/Screenshot%202019-04-14%2000.10.41.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/typ0v3g0lm743ip/Screenshot%202019-04-14%2000.10.41.png?dl=0)

Answer 47

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): two day policy meetings: 2019 Apr 30-May01, June 18-19, July 30-31, Sep 17-18, Oct 29-30, Dec 10-11, Jan 28-29 2019: interest rate decisions (most latom, hogy vannak mas meeting ip-ontok is... Arthur Hayes (Bitmex ceo hongkong) \> policy makers will keep the IRs high, wont let the economy down \> stock market further rally \> strong speculative crupto market;

Answer 48

After the big drop to 3k \> sharp bounce back, consolidation \> retest that high with a move up, slight move down and a big impulse up: Higher high (in 2018 only LHs) \<\< above 200 SMA (not been above since 2018 March, only before the the death-cross); 50/200 SMA Golden cross approaching on D; momentum changed on M: STOCH cross up and MACD histogram turned upwards; Crypto Crew University [https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8](https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8)

Answer 49

Priceaction above 200 SMA on D, Golden cross 50/200 SMA on D; but it can be short lived (like in 2015 fell bellow again and stayed for months); 3rd criteria: 200 SMA D must hold as SUP (since the 2nd GC (1st GC was a fake out) priceaction was above it, maybe touched only once, next cross bellow 2018 Feb at 8k);

Answer 50

Priceaction bellow 200 SMA on D, Death cross 50/200 SMA on D; 200 SMA D must hold as RES ?;

Answer 51

After the big drop to 3k hit the 200 SMA W, held, price action went above 20 SMA, now hitting 50 SMA (maybe rejection); market structure similar to the one in 2015: bottom capitulation \> testing 20 SMA fail , but 200 SMA held (two times) \> price above 20 SMA, but 50 SMA W rejects (2015 July, RSI rejected at 58 level, like in 2019 Apr similar 50 SMA rejection+RSI rejection)\> drop back to 200 SMA W, held but large wicks down (2015 Aug) \> 3 months later: 2015 Oct cross above 50 SMA, way above since, 20 SMA held on the uptrend; [https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8?t=997](https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8?t=997) [https://www.dropbox.com/s/7vrw9h60hk65owd/Screenshot%202019-04-17%2023.19.37.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/7vrw9h60hk65owd/Screenshot%202019-04-17%2023.19.37.png?dl=0)

Answer 52

2015 July: 50 SMA W rejects after running up from 200 SMA W bounce, RSI rejected at 58 level as well, in 2019 Apr similar 50 SMA rejection + RSI rejection at 58); STOCH RSI was 100 and curved down (2019 Apr up max, staying sideways move both lines) [https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8?t=1113](https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8?t=1113) [https://www.dropbox.com/s/c7p8g1lsxcut3bz/Screenshot%202019-04-17%2023.35.25.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/c7p8g1lsxcut3bz/Screenshot%202019-04-17%2023.35.25.png?dl=0)

Answer 53

Historical Volatility (HV) (average deviation from the average price in general, more spec for this: how far prices move away from a central average (moving average) (much lower now on W around 100, used to be ~200); Rate of return: profit on an investment in a period of time (expressed as a proportion of the original investment) \> decreasing max 20x expected from 3k level next cycle, but probably less drop too..; adaption; [https://youtu.be/S5\_vg2E9kt0?t=33](https://youtu.be/S5_vg2E9kt0?t=33) [https://www.dropbox.com/s/iwiz8uja0jyqngh/Screenshot%202019-04-18%2008.17.42.png?dl=0 https://www.dropbox.com/s/2phly6kla3mlphs/Screenshot%202019-04-18%2008.18.31.png?dl=0](https://www.dropbox.com/s/iwiz8uja0jyqngh/Screenshot%202019-04-18%2008.17.42.png?dl=0%20https://www.dropbox.com/s/2phly6kla3mlphs/Screenshot%202019-04-18%2008.18.31.png?dl=0)

Answer 54

Plan if scenarios: go to the market, design buying/shorting plans when setups are ripe \> let it ride or stop out; he did not miss the great breakout on Apr 2; either take proffesional approach/mindset or do not trade/invest; no opinion, no ego if you are wright/wrong, just examine the opportunities; Planing for all possible outcomes instead of guessing what will happen \> needs different market orders when you are away (limit orders). I was led by bearish opinions with the warming feelings with a minimal price entry when we hit the bottom, I did not realize the MACD/RSI/STOCH momentum changes on the HTs \> moved up in 2019 Jan-Apr (I thought it was just a huge correction and even bigger would come \<\< for that we need a huge tension to be accumulated and preparation from the marketmakers to let it happen).; https://youtu.be/B35dO5zl-Dk

Answer 55

safe trade with risk management; at least 2% move; ## Footnote The Traveling Trader [https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531](https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531)