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Flashcards in Lecture 2 Deck (15):
1

why is technological change a long term pattern?

  • cumulative and evolutionary (e.g. electricity)
  • new combinations of existing technologies or introduction of new elements into existing systems (touchpad)
  • not a smooth automatic process, takes place in fits, spurts and jumps (electric lighting & vacuum pumps)

2

What was the communication revolution

  • Printing (Gutenberg)
  • Consequences:
    • Mass education
    • loss of power of clergy
    • reformation
    • authorship

3

What was the spinning revolution

  • 10x productivity improvement
    • Mass production
    • Industrialization
    • Industrial revolution

4

What was the steam engine revolution

  • James Watt
  • Mass transportation
  • Other innovations like telegraph, telephone, radio …

5

What was the internet revolution

  • Institutional innovators (US Department, Universities)
  • Motivation: Defense, science (high speed computing)
  • Social effects?

6

Explain the concept of waves of technological development

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7

Why do innovation shift socio-economic paradigms?

  • Kondratiev long-waves (supposed around 50 years)
  • New pervasive technologies
  • Far-reaching implicatons

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8

Consequences of the new TEP (look up TEP in lecturio)

  • WINNER & losers: nations and firms
  • Re-design & new configuration of the capital stock
  • New skill profile in the labor force
  • New pattern of industrial relations
  • New national and international regulations
  • Competitiveness is based on:
    • knowledge, creativity & learning
    • innovation & R&D

9

Explain patterns in technological evolution

S-curve:

Emergence —> Rapid improvement —> Declining improvement —> Maturity

  • S-curves two technologies: potential new technology is in the beginning lower than matured old one. But might increase dramatically.
  • Sailing Ship phenomenon: At the matured phase there might be an increase when new innovations appear (USS Constellation —> Cutty Sark vs. turbine ships).

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10

Benefits of the S-curve

Helps when:

  • when currently used technologies are over-estimated
  • R&D budgets are linked to revenues
  • misinterpretation of market signals due to biased attitude (Voreingenommen)
  • lack of flexibility due to organizational grown structures and cultures

11

Explain the product life-cycle (PLC)

  • First dominant design is established
  • Then the process (second curve) is established
  • specific phase: mass production
  • Three phases:
    • fluid phase (Majo changes e.g. car)
    • transitional phase (major process changes e.g. car production)
    • specific phase (incremental for product and comulative improvements e.g. car)

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12

Table and examples of PLC?

Examples:

Phase 1: First sale of an automobile in US; Market entry by many firms (250)
Phase 2: Model T (standardized, production using conveyor belt) first wave of consolidation
Phase 3: closed steel body becomes standard; more consolidation to 9 firms

 

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13

Patterns in the adoption of innovation?

  • Innovators (2,5%): (like emotiv)
    • venturesome 
    • active information seekers
    • cosmopolite social relationships
    • able to cope with a high degree of uncertainty
    • gatekeeping role in the flow of new ideas into a system
  • Early adopters (iWatch) (13,5%):
    • often opinion leaders
    • more integrated part of local social system than innovators
    • sought by change agents as a “local missionary”
    • decreases uncertainty about a idea by adopting it (“stamp of approval”)
  • Early majority (34%):
    • interact frequently with their peers
    • seldom hold positions of opinion leadership
    • makes up about one third of all members
  • Late majority (34%):
    • adoption may be an economic necessity
    • of the result of increasing peer pressures
    • system norms must favor the innovation
  • Laggards (16%):
    • very localite, near isolates in social networks
    • the past is point of reverence
    • limited resources
    • tend to be suspicious of innovations and change agents

14

How does the number of adopters develop over time?

  • qN(t) - word of mouth (q = quantity of people who got it) —> exponential growth
  • qN(t)(Ntotal - Nt)
  • used for forecasting

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