Lectures 7-8 Flashcards
What are the major sources of uncertainty?
- Natural variability
- Observation error
- Structural complexity
- Inadequate communication
- Unclear management
objectives - Outcome uncertainty
What are the three main factors that affect natural variability?
1. Process noise – random difference 2. Endogenous factors – biologically driven, density dependence 3. Exogenous factors – externally driven, climate change, seasonality
How do you manage risk for natural variability?
• Probabilistic reasoning - managers use a distribution
of outcomes with estimated frequencies of
occurrence
• Adaptive management – simulations or management
strategy evaluation (MSE) to determine what
management approaches are most robust
• Multi-model inference – use different models with
varying assumption – do they deliver the same
answer
• More data – reduces gaps and error term
How do you manage risk for observation error?
• Increase sampling intensity • Save costs by effectively integrating sampling programs • Involve stakeholders to gain more information • Consider cost-benefit analysis of improving data • Consider all factors that impact accuracy
How do you manage risk for structural complexity?
• Apply multiple scenarios to address alternative hypotheses • Model averaging • Sensitivity analyses Also: • appropriate level of complexity, • appropriate level of scaling, • nature of the equations that drive model dynamics – i.e., foraging arena
How do you manage risk for inadequate communication?
• Increase stakeholder participation • Know your to audience • Including stakeholder engagement is expensive and timely; but may reduce overall costs, and schedule • Engaging stakeholders early can reduce overall uncertainty • Train modellers to communicate more clearly and in a simpler manner
How do you manage risk for unclear management objectives?
• SMART objectives • Increased stakeholder participation • need for flexibility in developing common objectives • May need to start with simple and achievable objectives – then more complex • Build models that produce measurable reference points
How do you manage risk for model uncertainty?
- Better monitoring and enforcement
- Quality assurance/quality control
- Include all stakeholders
What are some considerations for health and safety planning?
Review policies
design flowchart
define a describe roles for various mgmt and staff
What’s in a daily health and safety plan?
- Project Name/ Location /Date
- Team members and contact
information - Ensure list of all emergency
contact information - Review workplan and tasks for
the day - Hazard assessment with
mitigation - Lessons learned and safety
review - Equipment checklist – PPE,
safety equipment, required
work equipment - Review communication
procedures - Emergency procedures
- Route to emergency Medical
Services - Sign-off
What are some of the federal legislation policies protecting wetlands?
- Fisheries act - HADD
- Migratory Birds Convention Act - nesting or hunting
- SARA
What is the federal policy on wetland conservation?
- Maintenance
- No net loss
- Enhancement and rehab
- Recognition of wetland function in planning
- securement of wetlands of significance
What are the main functions of wetlands?
Purification
Storage - water and carbon
Habitat
Flood protection
What is the tiered assessment approach for wetlands function?
- Landscape - GIS
- Rapid assessment - semi quantitative
- Baseline studies - in depth
