Macro Flashcards

(314 cards)

1
Q

Define GDP

A

The value of total output of an economy in each period

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2
Q

Define economic growth

A

refers to the increase in the capacity of the economy to produce goods and services over time. It is measured by the rate of increase of real GDP

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3
Q

Define inflation rate

A

the percentage increase in the average price of goods and services

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4
Q

Gross debt

A

total liabilities owed to creditors

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5
Q

Net debt

A

total liabilities minus total assets that could be sold to raise money to pay creditors

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6
Q

Define Recession

A

a period of negative growth

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7
Q

growth calculation

A
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8
Q

Economic growth in poor countries

A

If poor countries are to catch up with the living standards of rich countries, they must grow at a faster pace.

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9
Q

what is a goal of macro policy

A

keep the economy as close to the straight line as possible, along the business cycle

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10
Q

Inflation calculation

A
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11
Q

Define a household

A

earn income which they use to purchase goods and services

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12
Q

Define a firm

A

produce goods and services which are sold in the market. Owned by households

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13
Q

how do the facotrs of production relate to economic activity

A

And all factors of production (e.g. labour and land) are owned by households, rented to firms.
- Further assume no savings, no surplus production, and no inter-firm sales.

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14
Q

explain the link between firms and households

A
  • Revenue flows into the firm are divided up into wages, rents and profits.
  • These wages, rents and profits are then taken back to households as incomes.
  • The income is then used as expenditure on the goods that the firm produces.
  • These expenditures are the firmโ€™s revenue.
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15
Q

The circular flow of income holds:

A
  1. The value of output is equal to household income ๐‘… โ‰ก ๐‘Œ.
  2. The value of output must equal the expenditure used to purchase ๐‘Œ โ‰ก ๐ธ.
  3. Expenditures must equal income ๐ธ โ‰ก ๐‘….
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16
Q

What does y stand for

A

Output (the value of all production)

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17
Q

what does e stand for?

A

The value of all expenditure on goods and services

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18
Q

what does r stand for?

A

The value of all household income

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19
Q

Intermediate goods

A

goods which fully depreciate in the production process

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20
Q

Capital goods

A

goods purchased by firms from other firms, which do not depreciate in the production process. They are used many times.

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21
Q

Capital and intermediate goods in GDP

A
  • Capital goods are final goods โ€“ we do want to include this in GDP, but not the intermediate goods.
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22
Q

Define value added

A

the change in the value of a good as it moves through the production process.

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23
Q

what does total expenditure equal

A

C + I

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24
Q

What does Household income equal

A

C + S

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25
How is investment for firms funded?
The savings of household
26
How does savings finance investment
1. Loans through the banking system (using the savings of households). 2. Issuing debt (bonds) which are sold to households in the financial market. 3. Issuing equity (shares) which are sold to households in the financial market.
27
How do we account for unsold production?
- Unsold stocks of inventory are counted as part investment by firms, - When these stocks are sold in the next year, they are counted as dis-investment (negative investment) by firms. - Inventory counts towards GDP (as investment) in year 1, but not year 2.
28
two functions of government
- Providing income transfers (benefits, pensions etc) to households - Providing final goods and services (education, police, bridges, etc) to households
29
How does government collect revenue
1. Direct or income tax (wages, capital, rent, profits) 2. Indirect, or expenditure tax
30
Define net taxes
tax minus benefit transfers: NT โ‰ก Td โ€“ B
31
Household disposable income
๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡ โ‰ก ๐ถ + ๐‘†
32
The leakages of the economy
๐‘† + ๐‘๐‘‡
33
The injections into the economy
๐ผ + ๐บ
34
what happends when ๐บ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡ = 0
balanced budget so S = I
35
what happends when ๐บ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡ > 0
Budget deficit so S > I --> Households finance the deficit
36
what happends when ๐บ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡ < 0
budget surplus so ๐‘† < ๐ผ --> Government pays down the deficit
37
Imports
Goods purchased from foreigner firms by domestic households and firms. - Imports are not part of domestic output. We need to account for them in final expenditure.
38
Exports
Goods sold to foreigners by domestic firms. - Exports are part of domestic output.
39
Net Exports value
NX = X โ€“ Z
40
What happens when ๐‘๐‘‹ > 0
trade surplus
41
What happens when ๐‘๐‘‹ < 0
trade deficit
42
Nominal GDP
GDP computed at current prices
43
Real GDP
GDP computed at the prices of a base year
44
GDP deflator
45
Gross National Product
the value of all income earned by citizens in a country.
46
example of german who works in london on GDP and GNP
- Contributes to UK, not German, GDP. - Contributes to German, not UK, GNP.
47
Investment from foreign to domestic country
- Contributes to domestic GDP. - Contributes to foreign GNP.
48
Full capacity output
The maximum level of output an economy can achieve at a given period by using all inputs at full capacity.
49
Potential output
The level of output the economy can achieve using all inputs at โ€œnormalโ€ capacity.
50
Recession
A period of slow to negative economic growth for which the actual output starts to diverge from the potential output.
51
Boom
A period of rapid economic growth in which the difference between actual output and full capacity output becomes small.
52
Phases of the business cycle
1. The upturn: the economy is below trend output but slowly recovering. 2. The expansion: The economy experiences rapid economic growth. 3. The peaking out: Growth slows down or even ceases. 4. The recession: GDP starts to fall (negative growth).
53
Keynesian cross model - overview
- Aggregate output fluctuations are caused by changes in aggregate demand. - In periods of recession or boom, the government can use policy to move the economy back to potential output.
54
Keynesian cross model - assumptions
- Prices, rents, and wages are all fixed. - Firms always produce what demand requires. - Workers are always available to work at current wage. - Firms always have spare capacity that can profitably be used at current prices. - There are always resources available at current rents. - We start with two agents: households and firms - Government and foreign trade will be added.
55
What does the Keynesian cross model consist of
Investment: Firms desired or planned additions to physical capital and inventories. Consumption: Household demand for goods and services.
56
The Consumption Function
๐ถ = ๐ด + ๐‘๐‘Œ - ๐ด > 0 - 0 < ๐‘ < 1
57
What does the consumption function show
The desired aggregate household consumption at each level of aggregate income.
58
What is A in the consumption function
The part of consumption that does not depend on income, called autonomous consumption. This is the level of consumption at ๐‘Œ = 0.
59
What is c in the consumption function
The marginal propensity to consume. It is the amount of each additional pound in income that is consumed (rather than saved.)
60
MPC in different households
- A very poor household is likely to immediately spend any extra income they earn. Their MPC is relatively high. - A very wealthy household is likely to spend very little of a small income change. Their MPC is relatively low.
61
Marginal propensity to save
1 - c
62
Relationship between conumption and saving function
The steeper the consumption functions the flatter the saving function.
63
Savings function
๐‘† = ๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐ถ = ๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐ด โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘Œ = โˆ’๐ด + (1 โˆ’ ๐‘)๐‘Œ
64
what is aggregate demand the sum of
consumption and investment
65
what does the 45degree line correspond to
the circular flow
66
In equilibrium
In equilibrium ๐‘Œโˆ— = ๐ถ + ๐ผ We know that ๐‘Œโˆ— = ๐ถ + ๐‘† Therefore, in equilibrium it must be the case that ๐‘† = ๐ผ
67
autonomous spending and investment calculation
๐‘Œโˆ— = ๐ด + ๐ผ/(1 โˆ’ ๐‘)
68
what is the multiplier
- A change in AD leads to a change in output which leads to a change in household income which leads to a change in AD.
69
multiplier calculation
1/1-c
70
what happens when desired savings fall
- At ๐‘Œ0โˆ—: ๐‘† < ๐ผ (not in equilibrium) - As incomes rise from ๐‘Œ0โˆ— to ๐‘Œ1โˆ—, households increase their savings. - This happens until ๐‘† = ๐ผ. - Notice, there is no change in savings
71
Summarise an increase in A
- Decrease in C - Decrease in Y - No change in S
72
Consumer Confidence
- Shifts in A and I are often due to change in consumer and firm confidence. - we assume that confidence about the future is independent of current income levels. - If households and firms lack confidence in the outlook for the economy, they will increase savings (put off investment). - If households feel less wealthy, they will increase savings (put off investment). - The government will try and deter system-wide increases in savings during times of recession.
73
Fiscal policy
the governmentโ€™s policy on spending and taxes
74
Stabilisation policy
refers to actions taken by the government to minimize movements in aggregate demand and output (keep it close to potential output).
75
Budget deficit
the excess of government spending over government receipts (taxes) each year.
76
national debt
the stock of outstanding government debt.
77
What are the two ways that government can finance spending?
1. Tax (provide benefits) at a constant rate proportional to income. 2. Collect taxes as a lump-sum (not conditional on income).
78
Tax (provide benefits) at a constant rate proportional to income.
- Let ๐‘ก be the net tax rate: the rate of taxation, less rate of benefit transfer. - Tax revenues will be ๐‘ก๐‘Œ, where 0 < ๐‘ก < 1. - Disposable household income will be ๐‘Œ๐‘‘ = (1 โˆ’ ๐‘ก)๐‘Œ
79
Collect taxes as a lump-sum (not conditional on income).
- Let ๐‘๐‘‡ be the net tax: taxes less benefits transfer. - Tax revenues will be ๐‘๐‘‡. - Disposable household income will be ๐‘Œ๐‘‘ = ๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡
80
The consumption function written in terms of disposable income (PT)
C = ๐ด + ๐‘(1 โˆ’ ๐‘ก)๐‘Œ
81
AD written in terms of disposable income (PT)
AD = ๐ด + ๐‘(1 โˆ’ ๐‘ก)๐‘Œ + ๐ผ + ๐บ
82
What does an increase in G do to the AD curve (PT)
Shift it up
83
what happen to the AD curve when t increases (PT)
AD curve pivots, becoming less steep.
84
Equilibrium output with government spending (PT)
85
impact of tax on the multiplier (PT)
86
Household disposable income (LST)
๐‘Œ๐‘‘ = ๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡
87
The consumption function written in terms of disposable income (LST)
๐ถ = ๐ด + ๐‘(๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡)
88
AD written in terms of disposable income (LST)
๐ด + ๐‘(๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡) + ๐ผ + ๐บ
89
What does an increase in G do to the AD curve?
shift it up
90
What does an increase in NT do to the AD curve?
shift the AD curve down
91
NT and G increasing by the same amount
If ๐‘๐‘‡ increases by the same amount as ๐บ, the AD curve shifts down, but not all the way back.
92
Equilibrium output for LST
93
Multiplier for LST
1/1-c - However, the shift in government spending is offset by the decrease in household disposable income.
94
What is a balanced budget?
A balanced budget means that the government will set taxes such that government spending is always covered.
95
How has taxation been adjested in a balanced budget?
so that NT = G
96
What happens when the government runs a balanced budget
government spending offset by a tax increase will always increase in output.
97
why is using a balanced budget multiplier as a fiscal tool indefinetely not feasible
- It involves raising taxes for greater expenditures. - It involves replacing some private spending (in the form of household consumption) with public spending. - Once we include interest rates in the model, we will also see that government spending โ€œcrowds outโ€ capital investment from firms.
98
Savings in equilibrium
๐‘† = ๐ผ + ๐บ โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘‡
99
How does household savings finance investment by firms
- Through the banking system - Shares - Bonds - Government bonds.
100
Budget deficit
when total government spending is greater than total tax revenue ๐บ > ๐‘๐‘‡.
101
Budget surplus
when total government spending is less than total tax revenue ๐บ < ๐‘๐‘‡.
102
automatic stabilisers
used to dampen the response of the economy to shocks.
103
automated taxes and transfers
they work by offsetting the economyโ€™s response to contraction and expansion.
104
equlibrium when we have a proportional net tax
105
multiplier when we have a proportional net tax
106
a positve demand shock on output
A positive demand shock will cause output to increase above its potential level
107
a negative demand shock on output
A negative demand shock will cause output to decrease below its potential level
108
what is the policy objectives for shocks to AD
Our policy objective is to make the deviations from ๐‘Œbar as small as possible.
109
Investment shock without tax
110
Investment shock with a proportional tax
111
Discretionaty fiscal policy
decisions that are made, on a case-by-case basis, to change spending/tax rates to stabilize aggregate demand.
112
fiscal stimulus
A discretionary increase in spending, or cut to taxes, is referred to as fiscal stimulus. An example of this is the furlough scheme used during the pandemic.
113
what does austerity mean
a reduction in ๐‘ฎ โˆ’ ๐‘ต๐‘ป.
114
Analysis of why a recession is the wrong time for austerity
- Austerity worsens economic output declines. - Stabilization policy uses proportional taxes, deficits in downturns, and surpluses in booms. - Full-capacity economy assumptions alter analysis conclusions. - Full-capacity leads to government spending crowding out private spending.
115
trade deficit
When ๐‘‹ โˆ’ ๐‘ < 0
116
trade surplus
When ๐‘‹ โˆ’ ๐‘ > 0
117
import demand function
๐‘ = ๐‘ง๐‘Œ - little z is MPZ
118
what does a high domestic income mean for trade balance
trade deficit
119
what does a low domestic income mean for trade balance
trade surplus
120
Equilibrium including x and z
121
what does a small value of z do to the AD curve
pivot it up
122
what does a large value of z do to the AD curve
pivot it down
123
if exports are higher than imports
more is sold to foreigners than is purchased from them. This extra income is part of savings (holding all else constant).
124
if imports are higher than exports
more is purchased from foreigners than is sold to them. This suggests a decrease in savings (holding all else constant).
125
what is money
Money is any generally accepted means of payment for delivery of goods or settlement of debt.
126
functions of money
1. Medium of exchange of goods and services 2. Unit of account in which prices are quoted and accounts are kept 3. Store of value. 4. Standard of deferred payment (enables borrowing and lending)
127
what is fiat money
A currency without intrinsic value.
128
what is commodity money
the actual use of a valued commodity as a form of money.
129
what is representative money?
is money that represents a claim on a commodity.
130
what are commerical banks
Commercial banks are a financial intermediary, coordinating activities between savers and borrowers.
131
bank reserves
the money that a bank has available to meet possible withdrawals from depositors.
132
reserve ratio
the percent of all deposits that banks keep on hand to meet withdrawals.
133
money supply
the value of the stock of all money in circulation.
134
monetary base
the value of currency either in circulation or held in reserves.
135
monetary base function
๐‘๐‘๐ท + ๐‘๐‘๐ท
136
money supply function
๐‘๐‘๐ท + ๐ท
137
money multiplier
138
financial asset
a piece of paper entitling the owner to a stream of payments over a specified period.
139
liquidity
the speed at which an asset can be turned into money.
140
solvency crisis
when an institutionโ€™s assets have become less than its liabilities.
141
liquidity crisis
when an institution is temporarily unable to meet immediate payment requests.
142
bills
- Short term asset with a known date of repurchase at the known price. - High liquidity.
143
bonds
- Longer-term - Medium liquidity
144
perpetuities
- A type of a bond which is never repurchased by the issuer. Interest payments made forever. - Medium liquidity
145
equities
- Company shares, entitling the owner to receive corporate dividends. - Low liquidity.
146
role of the central bank
1. Issue bank notes (ยฃยฃยฃยฃ). 2. Lender of last resort 3. Banker to the government 4. It may also be the job of the Central Bank to police the financial system. 5. Monitoring and controlling the money supply, interest rates & inflation.
147
How can the central bank influence the money supply
1. Reserve requirements 2. Setting the bank rate 3. Open market operations
148
The yield calculation
149
relationship between price and interest rate
inverse
150
real money supply
M/P
151
why do we hold money
1. Transaction - we do not buy and sell things at the same time. 2. Precautionary - we hold money for unexpected costs that may arise. 3. Asset - money has very low risk, but also very low return.
152
what is the primary benefit to holding money
- Higher consumption means higher money demand. - Money demand is increasing with income (ceteris paribus).
153
the cost of holding money
- All wealth held in money rather than bonds forgoes the interest that bonds earn. - The cost of holding money is greater when the interest on bonds is greater. - Money demand is decreasing with interest rates (ceteris paribus).
154
What happens to the cost of borrowing money following an increase in the return on bonds
increase
155
what happens to the demand for money when the rate of interest decreases
decrease
156
What happens to demand as income increases
- Households need more cash for consumption transactions. - Holding all else constant, the demand for real balances increases.
157
demand equation for real money balances
๐ฟ๐ฟ = ๐›ผ + ๐›ฝ๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐›พ(๐‘Ÿ โˆ’ ๐‘Ÿ๐‘‘)
158
Given the money demand schedule ๐ฟ๐ฟ, the Central Bank can either:
- Set the interest rate and let the money supply adjust. - Set the money supply and let the interest rate adjust.
159
Endogenous variables in the money market - moves along the curve
Interest rates, ๐‘Ÿ
160
Exogenous variables in the money market - shift curves
Income/output, ๐‘Œ Nominal money balances, ๐‘€ Price level, ๐‘ƒ
161
how does changing the interest rate effect households?
- higher interest rates imply higher price of bonds โ‡’ Households feel wealthier, consumption increases. - Lower interest rates imply lower cost of borrowing, increasing spending on consumer durables (housing, cars, furniture) , consumption increases.
162
how does changing the interest rate effect investment by firms?
Lower interest rates imply lower cost of borrowing, increasing investing by firms.
163
goods market equilibrium
defined by output level ๐‘Œโˆ—, such that aggregate demand and actual income (output) are equal.
164
money market equilibrium
defined by interest rate ๐‘Ÿโˆ—, such that money demand is equal to money supply.
165
IS schedule
combinations of ๐‘Œ and ๐‘Ÿ for which the goods market is in equilibrium.
166
MP schedule
combinations of ๐‘Œ and ๐‘Ÿ for which the money market is in equilibrium.
167
Shifts in the IS curve
- Anything that shifts the AD curve for a given interest rate will shift the IS curve. - Changes in ๐บ. - Exogenous changes in ๐ถ or ๐ผ that are not due to changes in ๐‘Ÿ.
168
Shifts in the MP curve
- Changes in the money supply (๐ฟ) for a given income level will shift the MP curve.
169
impact of increase government spending on spending
- Public spending has crowded out private spending โ€“ investment spending has decreased.
170
Quantitive easing
refers to action taken by the central bank to increase the money supply.
171
quantitive tightening
refers to action taken by the central bank to decrease the money supply.
172
monetary financing
Monetary financing refers to an arrangement whereby the central bank creates money to finance a government deficit.
173
what effects the slope of the MP curve?
- The slope of the Monetary Policy (MP) curve represents the change in interest rates resulting from changes in output. - This slope is determined by the responsiveness of money demand to output fluctuations.
174
Flat MP curve
- Money demand is not very responsive to changes in output. - Fiscal policy is effective. - Little change in ๐‘Ÿ, large change in ๐‘Œ. - Minimal crowding out of private spending.
175
Steep MP curve
- Money demand is very responsive to changes in output. - Fiscal policy is largely ineffective. - Large change in ๐‘Ÿ, little change in ๐‘Œ. - Government spending has a large crowding out effect on private spending โ€“ small increase in output is at the expense of a reduction in investment.
176
what effects the slope of the IS curve?
- The IS curve's slope reflects how output changes with interest rate variations. - This depends on how sensitive aggregate demand is to interest rate changes, specifically investment and consumption. - High sensitivity (large AD shifts) leads to a flat IS curve.
177
Flat IS curve
- ๐ผ and ๐ถ are very sensitive to changes in the interest rate. - Monetary policy is effective. - Output is highly responsive to changes in the interest rate.
178
Steep IS curve
- ๐ผ and ๐ถ are not very sensitive to changes in the interest rate. - Monetary policy is relatively ineffective. - Output does not respond to changes in the interest rate.
179
Fiscal Policy - increase in government spending
- Increase in government spending increases AD โ†’ IS shifts right - Output increases, which leads to an increase in interest rates, which decreases investment spending. - This adjustment stops when we arrive at the new equilibrium. - Output has increase, interest rates have increased. - Government spending has crowded out some investment spending.
180
Monetary policy increase in money supply
- Central bank increases the money supply โ†’ MP curve to the right. - Interest rates decreases, as a result firms want to increase their investment spending. - There is a feedback between the goods market and money market as output and interest rates adjust. - This adjustment stops when we reach the new general equilibrium. - Output has increase, interest rates have decreased. Investment spending has increased.
181
Pros of monetary policy to stimulate the economy
- Works by stimulating private investment andconsumption.
182
Cons of monetary policy to stimulate the economy
- Zero (nominal) lower-bound! - May be slow to work. - Cannot be โ€œtargetedโ€.
183
Pros of fiscal policy to stimulate the economy
- Can work fast (e.g. job retention scheme). - Can be targeted.
184
Cons of fiscal policy to stimulate the economy
- May lead to a crowding out of private consumption. * Lots of disagreement about the size of the multiplier.
185
When should we use fiscal policy versus monetary policy to simulate the economy?
The answer depends on the shape of these curves! - If the MP curve is steep (households and firms are sensitive to interest rate changes) use monetary policy - The fiscal spending multiplier will be low, lots of crowding out. - If the MP curve is flat (households and firms are not sensitive to interest rate changes) use fiscal policy - The fiscal spending multiplier will be high.
186
Small open economy
- Small means that the countries decisions will not affect world prices (world prices are exogenous). - An open economy has trade and financial links to other countries (foreign economies) which will impact the domestic economy.
187
foreign exchange market
This is where the currency of one country is exchanged for the currency of a different country.
188
exchange rate
The price (in units of domestic currency) at which a foreign can be purchased
189
exchange rate calculation
190
appreciation
Appreciation of domestic currency refers to an increase in the exchange rate
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Depreciation
Depreciation of domestic currency refers to a decrease in the exchange rate
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market for foreign exchange
- A higher exchange rate (USD/GBP) means pounds are more expensive for foreigners. - This makes domestic goods and services pricier. - Consequently, the foreign demand for pounds decreases.
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Impact on foreign demand as ER decreases
Foreign demand increases - demand for pounds is decreasing with exchange.
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UK demand for foreign goods, when ER decreases
UK demand for iPhones foreign goods when the exchange rate decreases โŸน supply of pounds is increasing with exchange.
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Where can the supply of the pound in the foreigne exchange market come from?
1. Firms, households and government purchases of foreign goods and services. 2. Central monetary authority for the purpose of influencing the exchange rate.
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If the central bank wishes to decreases the exchange rate what should they do
shift the supply curve right
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If the central bank wishes to increases the exchange rate what should they do
shift the supply curve left
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exchange rate regime
refers to the governmentโ€™s policy with respect to how exchange rates are determined.
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fixed exchange rate
actions are taken by the central bank to fix exchange rates at a pre-determined level.
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floating exchange rate
the exchange rate is determined by the market for foreign exchange equilibrium.
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benefits of a fixed regime
- A fixed exchange rate regime provides stability. - This is attractive to foreign and domestic investors. - Can be used to avoid inflation (i.e. gives the central bank a money-supply target)
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cost of a fixed regime
- Central bank must always keep a large stock of foreign reserve. - If capital is perfectly mobility in and out of country, country will lose control of its interest rate.
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Nominal exchange rtae vs purchasing power
Nominal exchange rates reflect the exchange rate between different currencies, but they do not tell us about the purchasing power of different currencies.
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the real exchange rate
reflects the relative price of actual goods and services when measured in different currencies.
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real exchange rate calculation
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Purchasing power parity
the hypothetical nominal exchange rate that makes the same โ€œbasket of goodsโ€ in two countries cost the same.
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balance of payments
a record of all transactions between the residents of one country and the rest of the world.
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current account
measures the real value of trade balances (Exports-Imports). This was previously denoted by ๐‘๐‘‹ = ๐‘‹ โˆ’ ๐‘ โ‰ˆ ๐ถ๐ด.
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increasing and decreasing of the capital account
The current account is increasing in foreign income, decreasing in domestic income, and decreasing with the exchange rate.
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capital account
the difference between the value of domestic assets purchased by foreign investors and the value of foreign assets purchased by domestic investors.
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what does the capital account depend on
The capital account depends positively on the difference between the domestic interest rate and the foreign interest rate.
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Balance of payments equation
๐ต๐‘ƒ = ๐ถ๐ด + ๐‘˜๐ด
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If ๐ถ๐ด > 0
then the country is in a current account surplus, income from foreign spending exceeds spending on foreign goods.
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If ๐ถ๐ด < 0
then the country is in a current account deficit, income from foreign spending is less than spending on foreign goods.
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In equilibrium the balance of payments must sum to
0
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what happends to the current account when domestic income increases
CA decrease
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what happends to the current account when foreign income increases
CA increases
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what happends to the current account when exchange rate increases
CA decreases
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what happens when the domestic interest rate is greater than the foreign interest rate
capital flows into the domestic economy and the capital account increases
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what happens when the domestic interest rate is less than the foreign interest rate
capital flows out of the domestic economy and the capital account decreases
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capital mobility
how easily can an investor move funds (financial capital) in and out of a country.
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perfect capital mobility means ..
that there are no impediments to funds flowing from one currency to another.
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An increase in domestic income will increase import demand, leading to a ...
current account deficit
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To solve the CA deficit and return to equilibrium what must happen
- Interest rates must rise. - Foreign investment flows in, increasing the capital account.
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Slope of the BP curve reflects the mobility of capital:
- Perfect capital mobility is reflected by a horizontal BP curve. - Perfectly immobile capital is reflected by a vertical BP curve.
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What happens when domestic interest rates are higher than foreign interest rates
demand for domestic currency increase, which leads to currency appreciation
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What happens when domestic interest rates are lower than foreign interest rates
demand for domestic currency decrease, which leads to currency depreciation.
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what happens to goods when the curency depreciaties e.g. ER decreases
domestic goods become relatively inexpensive
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what happens to goods when the curency appreciates e.g. ER increases
domestic goods become relatively expensive
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what happens to NX when the curency depreciaties
NX increases, AD shifts up
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what happens to NX when the curency depreciaties
NX decreases, AD shifts down
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When the domestic currency depreciates (e decreasing) - imports and exports
- Imports are becoming expensive relative to domestic goods - Foreigners find exports relatively cheap. - The IS curve shifts right. WIDEC
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When the domestic currency appreciates (e increasing) - imports and exports
- Imports are becoming cheap relative to domestic goods - Foreigners find exports relatively expensive. - The IS curve shifts left.
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Fiscal policy with a fixed ER
Consider an increase in government spending: - The domestic economy moves to point B. - At B, ๐‘Ÿ > ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“. - Demand for domestic currency leads to currency appreciation (๐‘’ โ†‘). - To stop the appreciation, the Bank increases the supply of domestic currency. - The MP curve shifts to new equilibrium C. - Fiscal policy is effective in increasing output
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Monetary policy with a fixed ER
- Does not work.
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expansionary fiscal policy on a floating exchange rate
- The government increases spending, which shifts the IS curve right. - At domestic equilibrium B, ๐‘Ÿ > ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“. - This increase in domestic interest rates leads to an appreciation in the domestic currency. - Currency appreciation shifts the IS curve left (as net exports fall). - The economy shifts back to equilibrium A. - Fiscal policy is completely ineffective (crowds out exports).
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expansionary monetary policy on a floating exchange rate
- The money supply increases shifting the MP curve right. - At domestic equilibrium B, ๐‘Ÿ < ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“. - Reduction in the demand for domestic currency (for investment) โ‡’ devaluation of currency. - The currency devaluation means that net exports increase โ‡’ IS curve shifts right. - This happens until the new equilibrium at C is reached. - Monetary policy is effective.
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A decrease in foreign exchange rate (fixed)
- ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ decreases, (holding ๐‘’ and ๐‘Œ๐‘“ constant) - Domestic currency starts to appreciate (currency demand increase in foreign exchange). - Central bank responds by increasing the funds in foreign exchange market. - Domestic interest rate falls to foreign interest rate. - Investment and household spending increases in response to the lower interest. - Output increases
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A decrease in foreign exchange rate (floating)
- ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“ decreases, (holding ๐‘’ and ๐‘Œ๐‘“ constant) - Domestic currency starts to appreciate (currency demand increase in foreign exchange). - Domestic goods are becoming expensive relative to foreign goods. - Net exports fall. - Money demand decreases, until domestic and foreign interest rates are equal. - Output falls overall.
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An increase to foreign exchange rate
- increase ๐‘Ÿ๐‘“, holding ๐‘’ and ๐‘Œ๐‘“ constant. - At interest rate ๐‘Ÿ1we are in a BP deficit. - Capital begins to leave the UK seeking the higher foreign interest rate, ๐‘Ÿ1๐‘“. - Domestic currency depreciates. - Currency depreciation leads to an increase in the demand for domestic goods and services, as well as an increase in the domestic interest rate.
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The quantity theory of money
The quantity theory of money states that the price level is directly proportional to the nominal money supply.
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what does the quantity theory of money suggest about nominal money supply and price level
A % change in nominal money supply โ†’ same % change in the price level.
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what is velocity
The speed at which the stock of money passes around the economy.
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what is the equation of exchange
๐‘€๐‘‰ = ๐‘ƒ๐‘Œ
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how do we calculate velocity
where PY is the nominal value of transactions and M is the money supply
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Why is inflation bad
- Shoe leather costs: The negative effects of inflation can be avoided by holding less money. This means that people will make more frequent trips to the bank to change their savings into cash. - Menu costs: It is costly for firms to change their prices. - Misallocation costs: If some businesses find it easier to change their prices than others, then inflation distorts the role of prices in reflecting the relative value of different goods and services.
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winners and losers from inflation
- Consider a mortgage. I borrow money from my bank and agree to pay back the nominal amount + interest in the future. - I use that money to purchase a house. - If there is unanticipated inflation the nominal value of the money, I pay back remains unchanged, however the real amount decreases. - My house maintains its real value (its nominal value increases). - Inflation benefits borrowers but hurts lenders.
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what happens if inflation is bad
a) The lending system can break down entirely, as lenders become unwilling to agree to nominal contracts. b) People want to change their nominal holdings into real holdings. This leads to more inflation.
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fisher equation
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What does the AD curve reflect
The AD curve reflects the quality of output demanded by the economy at any given price level.
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How does the price level effect aggregate demand - Consumption
Wealth effect. - Simple economy in which the only goods are food and clothing. - Individuals have a fixed nominal wealth. - Inflation increases the price of food and clothing by the same amount, but does not affect nominal wealth.
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How does the price level effect aggregate demand - Investment
Real interest rates
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How does the price level effect aggregate demand - Net exports
Exchange rate effect. - Foreign demand is increasing when the real value of domestic goods and services decreases.
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AS curve
The AS curve shows the total supply of goods and services in the economy at each price level (inflation).
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Where does supply come from?
- Firms making production decisions. - Individuals supplying labour. - Resources and production technologies available in the economy.
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On the AS curve, at low levels of output, below potential output:
- Capital is underutilized at current rents, - Labour is underutilized at current wages, - Firms and workers are always willing to provide more output with no effect on inflation.
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How does supply change with changes in the general price levels?
- If a firm that experiences a doubling in the cost of production and a doubling in the price of its goods will not change production. - Workers that experience a doubling of wages and a doubling of all prices will not change labour supply.
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Fiscal policy, Classical model - increase in government spending
1. The increase in ๐บ causes aggregate demand to shift right. 2. Now ๐ด๐ท > ๐ด๐‘†, therefore the general price level starts to increases. 3. The increase in the general price level means households reduce their spending (negative wealth effect), net exports decreases. 4. At the new equilibrium, the general price level has increased, and government spending has lead to full crowding out of private spending (no change in ๐‘Œ).
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monetary policy in the classical model - when inflation is greater than the bank's target
- If ๐œ‹0 > ๐œ‹โˆ— then the central bank can tighten its monetary policy (shift ๐‘–๐‘– up). - This increases the real interest rate at all levels of inflation. - This will lead to a leftward shift in the AD curve.
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What is the output gap
Output gap reflects the deviation of output from its long-run trend (potential).
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Sticky wages
The classical model assumes that inflation reflects a uniform change across all prices and wages in the economy. - No relative price changes. - It must be that all prices are changing by the same amount at the same time.
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Reasons to question the assumption that wages adjust instantly:
Employees find it costly to leave their employer, even for higher wages elsewhere. Work contracts restrict the ability of firms to adjust employee hours and wages when market conditions change
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In the short-run, output is only affected by inflation when
๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘Ž๐‘™๐‘™๐‘ฆ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› โ‰  ๐‘’๐‘ฅ๐‘๐‘’๐‘๐‘ก๐‘’๐‘‘ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘›
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๐‘Ž๐‘๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘Ž๐‘™ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› > ๐‘’๐‘ฅ๐‘๐‘’๐‘๐‘ก๐‘’๐‘‘ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘›
output prices grow faster than wages. Firms increase output โŸน positive output gap.
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a๐‘๐‘ก๐‘ข๐‘Ž๐‘™ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘› < ๐‘’๐‘ฅ๐‘๐‘’๐‘๐‘ก๐‘’๐‘‘ ๐‘–๐‘›๐‘“๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘œ๐‘›
output prices grow slower than wages. Firms decrease output โŸน negative output gap.
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what happens to wages in the long-run
In the long-run wages adjust to new inflation expectations and output returns to the potential output.
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aggregate labour marketโ€™s ability to clear depends on the time frame - SR
- Fluctuations in labour supply come largely from hours (as opposed to employment). - Employees can be asked to work more or fewer hours. - Wages are unlikely to change.
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aggregate labour marketโ€™s ability to clear depends on the time frame - MR
- Firms begin to adjust their permanent work force. - Employment contracts come up for renegotiation. - This puts pressure on wages.
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aggregate labour marketโ€™s ability to clear depends on the time frame - LR
- All contacts are renegotiated. - Wages fully adjust to new labour demand.
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The SAS curve can shfit fro two reasons
1. A change in the inflation expectations, ๐œ‹๐‘’. 2. A supply shock.
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What does the SAS curve show
The relationship between the output gap and inflation.
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When output deviates from potential output, we see
a movement along the SAS curve.
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The slope of the SAS curve, ๐œƒ, reflects
how responsive prices/wages are to changes in inflation.
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When ๐œƒ is close to 0
wage stickiness is high.
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A larger value of ๐œƒ suggests
that wages are less sticky (close to the classical model).
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What happens following a negative demand shock
- AD falls and firms respond by lowering prices (but not wages) and output. - As time passes, inflation expectations change; firms and workers begin to renegotiate wage contracts. - After enough time, all wage contracts are renegotiated in line with new lower inflation expectations. Short run: Output falls (and employment) and then gradually increases, prices and wages gradually fall. Long-run: No change to output, lower prices and wages.
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What happens following a positive demand shock
- AD increases and firms respond by increasing prices (but not wages) and output. - As time passes, inflation expectations change; firms and workers begin to renegotiate wage contracts. - After enough time, all wage contracts are renegotiated in line with new higher inflation expectations. Short run: Output increases (and employment) and then gradually decreases, prices and wages gradually increase. Long-run: No change to output, higher prices and wages.
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A temporary shock to supply
Shift in short-run supply, but not long-run supply. - SAS shifts right, inflation falls below target at the current level of output. - Excess demand at lower prices drives up prices. Positive output gap (C). - Eventually, short-run supply shifts back to its original position (A).
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permanent shocks to supply
- Technology increase leads to higher productivity. - Both AS and SAS curves shifts right. - Inflation and output move to short-run equilibrium, B. - In the short run there is a negative output gap. - Firms and workers adjust their inflation expectations downwards, shifting the SAS curve right. - Inflation and output move to C.
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what are the banks 3 choices following a temporary shock in supply
1. Stabilize inflation. 2. Stabilize output. 3. Something in-between.
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what is the taylor rule
A Taylor rule describes this more complicated monetary policy - how responsive are nominal interest rates (๐‘Ÿ) to deviations in inflation versus output.
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taylor rule in terms of nominal interest rates
๐‘Ÿ โˆ’ ๐‘Ÿโˆ— = (1 + ๐‘Ž)( ๐œ‹ โˆ’ ๐œ‹โˆ—) + ๐‘(๐‘Œ โˆ’ ๐‘Œโˆ—)
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What happens following an increase in government spending.
- AD increases - this leads to a positive output gap and increases inflation. - However, prices for output are increasing faster than wages. - Over time, inflation expectations change, and workers and firms renegotiate wages. - The output gap shrinks. - Eventually, all wages are renegotiated, so wage growth is back in line with inflation.
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The adjustment process when the central bank wishes to lower its target rate of inflation.
- Output falls as does inflation. Now growth in wages is greater than growth in output prices. - Overtime, workers and employers revise their inflation expectations and renegotiate wage contracts. - Eventually, when all wages are renegotiated, we return to the long run equilibrium, with a new lower inflation rate. - The adjustment to the new inflation rate necessitates a decline in output.
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What happens following a decrease in interest rate policy.
- Business investment and household consumption increase, shifting aggregate demand. - In the short-run, output and inflation both increases. - Over time, output begins to fall, but inflation continues to increase. - Eventually, output returns to its potential level, but inflation is much higher. - Cutting interest rates will exacerbate inflation!
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Two stabilization policy goals.
1. Minimize the size of the size of the output gap. 2. Keep inflation near target.
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What will happen if the supply and demand shift are both temporary?
With fiscal stimulus: - In the short run some output is recovered, but this may be at the expense of some excess inflation. - As the economy recovers, aggregate demand continues to shift right. - Workers and firms in the economy expect a higher level of inflation, so the short-run supply curve does not fully shift back.
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What is the natural rate of unemployment
The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment observed when the economy is at its potential output. - In most economies this is thought to be a number around 5โ€“6%.
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What does the Phillip curve describe
The Phillips curve describes a negative short-run relationship between inflation and unemployment.
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Maths of the Phillips Curve
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The short-run impact of a decrease in inflation
- Wage contracts are based on ๐œ‹0 = ๐œ‹๐‘’. - Unexpectedly low inflation, ๐œ‹ < ๐œ‹0, means that wages are increasing faster than prices (output costs are relatively expensive). - In the short-run firms decrease output by cutting back on labour. - Unemployment increases.
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The short-run impact of an increase in inflation
- Wage contracts are based on ๐œ‹0 = ๐œ‹๐‘’. - Unexpectedly high inflation, ๐œ‹ > ๐œ‹0, means that wages are increasing slower than prices (output costs are relatively cheap). - In the short-run firms increase output by hiring more labour. - Unemployment decreases.
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The short-run Phillips curve can shift for two reasons.
1. Inflation expectations change. 2. A change in firmsโ€™ desired demand for workers at the current level of wage growth (e.g. due to a change in production technology).
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The long-run natural rate of unemployment curve shifts for two reason.
- A permanent change in firmsโ€™ desired demand for workers at the current level of wage growth (e.g. due to a change in production technology). - Structural changes in the economy that reduce the natural rate of unemployment.
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What role do inflation expectations play in the macroeconomy?
Inflation expectations influence actual inflation. Deviations between natural unemployment and actual unemployment are related to the difference between actual and expected inflation.
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Consider an economy in which the elected government sets monetary policy
- The government announces a โ€œtough on inflationโ€ policy, changing the target from ๐œ‹0โˆ— to ๐œ‹1โˆ—. - Increases interest rates, shifting the AD curve and increase short-run unemployment. - If the policy is credible, inflation expectations change, shifting SAS and PC.
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What if the policy announcement is not credible?
- No shift in SAS/PC, and only a modest decrease in inflation. - The government will be forced to abandon its tight monetary policy.
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The unemployment rate
The unemployment rate is the number of people who are without a job, but actively looking for work, (the unemployed) by the number of people in the labour force
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The labour force
The labour force is comprised of all people who are employed or are actively looking for work at the current wage rate. It does not include people who are out of the labour force.
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unemployment rate calculation
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Frictional (search) unemployment
Unemployment that arises from employees and employers taking time to find the right match. - Workers with specific skills need to find employers with a need for those skills. - Workers may have handicaps that make finding an employer match difficult.
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Structural unemployment
Unemployment that arises from workers needing to adjust to a change in the types of jobs available. - Redundant workers needing to upgrade or change their skill set
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Demand-deficient unemployment
unemployment that arises from a fall in aggregate demand (jobs generally become unavailable). This will only correct when aggregate demand returns to its long-run level.
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Classical unemployment
unemployment that is created when the wage is deliberately maintained above its equilibrium level. - For example: minimum wage laws or unions. - This can be thought of as a type of structural unemployment.
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Voluntary unemployment
Workers choose not to accept a job at the market wage rate. - This includes frictional and structural unemployment.
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Involuntary unemployment
Workers are willing to accept a job at the going wage rate, but cannot get a job offer. - This includes demand-deficient and classical unemployment.
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Natural rate of unemployment maths
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Voluntary and involuntary employment on a graph
- Unemployment is ๐‘4 โˆ’ ๐‘2. - Voluntary unemployment is ๐‘4 โˆ’ ๐‘3 - Involuntary unemployment is ๐‘3 โˆ’ ๐‘2
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Supply-side economics requires the use of microeconomic incentives to alter
- The level of full employment. - The level of potential output. - The natural rate of unemployment
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Long-run supply side polices
In the long-run, the performance of the economy can only be changed by affecting the level of full employment and the corresponding level of potential output
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how can be the natural rate of unemplotment be altered by structural change
-Labour force mobility (between jobs and geographic). - Income support programmes. - Market competition (i.e. anticompetitive laws).
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other ways the natural rate of unemployment can be changed
- Changes in the age distribution. - Cultural factors (e.g. female labour force participation)
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Supply side policies that may change the natural rate of unemployment
- Restricting and reducing the power of unions. - Restrictions on income support programmes. - Reducing income taxes and taxes on firm profits. - Minimum/living wages. - Antitrust/competition laws. - Worker training programmes and requirements.
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impact of a decrease in unemployment benefits
Decreasing benefits changes the opportunity cost of remaining unemployed. This will result in a shift to the right of the AJ curve. - An increase in the number of people willing to accept employment at a given wage.