midterm Flashcards
(44 cards)
What are some important reasons that we forecast the weather?
- What to wear
- Protect lives
- Large storm events
- Agriculture
- Transportaion
- a lot
What are the 3 main forecasting sectors?
- Broadcast
- Government
- Private
What are the major roles of the 3 main forecasting sectors, and how do they differ?
Government: Issues hazardous weather events with watches/warnings, short- and long-range forecasts, weather briefings/discussions. Dissemination through NOAA Weather Radios, Internet, smartphone apps
Broadcast: Share weather forecasts and related stories, as well as NWS advisories, watches and warnings
Radio, TV, Internet, Apps
Private: Forecast for businesses:
Utility companies
Renewable Energy Agencies
Insurance Companies
Agricultural Corporations
Could be its own forecasting business!
WeatherBug
AccuWeather
Weather Underground
How does Confidence change over time
You typically get less and less confident the farther out you attempt to forecast
What are the 4 forecasting methods?
- Trends
- Climatology
- Analog
- Numerical Weather Prediction (Consensus)
Which two forecasting methods are most useful, and during which type of scenarios are they most useful?
- Analog –> forecasting precip type and synoptic scale patterns
Lake Effect Snow
Pineapple Express
Severe Weather Outbreaks - Consensus –> Probability of Precipitation (PoP) forecasts
What does NWP stand for?
Numerical Weather Prediction
What is NWP?
A forecast model is a set (huge, thousands) of mathematical equations that describe how pressure, temperature, moisture, air density, and wind will change over time.
What are two major factors that influence the accuracy of a model?
- Quality of equations to predict atmospheric chaos
- Quality of observations
What are the 3 main American forecast models?
- NAM (North American Mesoscale)
- RAP (Rapid Refresh Model)
- GFS (Global Forecast System)
What are the characteristics and the strengths/ weaknesses of the NAM?
- Forecasts out 84 hours.
Run 4 times per day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z).
12x12 km grid spacing.
Better for mesoscale analysis!
Takes about 2.5 hours to run.
What are the characteristics and the strengths/ weaknesses of the RAP?
Very similar to NAM. Uses different governing equations.
Forecasts out 18 hours.
Runs hourly! (Takes in new data every hour!)
13x13km grid spacing.
Takes a little over one hour to run.
Another version of RAP, known as the HRRR, also exists.
Generates data down to a 3-km grid for smaller regions of interest!
What are the characteristics and the strengths/ weaknesses of the GFS?
Observations/Forecasts on the global scale (Hemispheric/Synoptic).
Forecasts out 384 hours (16 days).
Run 4 times per day (00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z).
13x13 km grid spacing.
Takes about 4 hours to run.
Great for synoptic weather pattern and long-term forecasting!
What does MOS stand for?
Model output statistics
What is MOS?
Aa statistical model that combines the NWP data with other local variables andruns through a set of regression equations.
Statistical blend of model output, climatological information, and past weather observations
Made for a specific observation station, not 3-D
Differences and similarities between MOS and NWP?
- NWP simplifies the upper-air analysis and synoptic features while MOS offers more surface features
- Large cities/ airports are the only places with MOS data
Be able to fully decode a MOS forecast from top to bottom.
do it dummy
Be able to prepare a basic technical Discussion based on given map analysis and NWP tools.
growls u know the drill buckaroo
What is the forecast funnel?
A breakdown of where to forecasting?!?1 girl idk
Describe each of the different scales within the funnel, and what observations are taken with each
Planetary Scale: Look at hemispheric patterns and how they will affect your forecast; WIND
Synoptic Scale: Looking more nationally, what systems may affect your forecast. “What is the problem of the day?; HOW WIND IS AFFECTING NATIONAL SCALE LIKE TROUGHS N RIDGES
Mesoscale: Regionally, what features are going to effect the overall processes?; TOPOGRAPHIC FEATURES, CONVECTION SHIT LIKE THAT
Local Scale: How will terrain and other features influence my forecast?; YER
Why is the forecast funnel useful for forecasting?
Using the knowledge of the scales of the atmosphere helps a better understanding of how to forecast for a local area. If you notice a rapidly developing mid-latitude cyclone on a synoptic level, it’ll help you prepare for possible severe weather in your forecasting area
What type of Lake Effect Snow bands are there?
- Wind Parallel Bands: occur across the shorter width of the lake. Generally associated with strong surface winds and shear.
- LLAP (Long-Lake axis parallel) Bands: occur in the middle of the lake and stretch it’s length to the leeward shore. Usually associated with the strongest LES events.
What ingredients are needed for Lake Effect Snow
- High/steep vertical temperature gradient
- Temp gradient between lake and 850 mb greater than 13ºC (23ºF).
The larger the gradient, the greater chance for intense snow bands
Increased instability! - Unfrozen Lake
- Large Fetch
- Fetch - The distance traveled by wind or waves across open water.
- Typically need a fetch length greater than 160 km (~100 miles)
What type of soundings produce rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow?
-Rain: Temperature is above freezing
- Freezing rain: top of sounding is below freezing –> large dip above freezing –> shallow surface freezing layer
- Sleet: Shallow freezing layer aloft –> deep freezing layer at surface
- Snow: Continuously below freezing