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Misc Flashcards

(48 cards)

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1
Q

Members of an ensemble use slightly different…

A

Initial conditions

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2
Q

Two different ensemble methods

A
  1. Perturbed parameter ensembles

2. Multi-model ensembles

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3
Q

Deterministic forecasts always choose the most ____ outcome

A

Likely

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4
Q

Resolution of Met Office deterministic forecast

A

1.5 km

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5
Q

Resolution of Met Office ensemble forecast

A

2.2 km, 18 members

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6
Q

Postage stamp plots are used for…

A

Ensemble forecasts

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7
Q

How forecasts can be improved

A
  1. Better use of observational data
  2. Better model physics
  3. Increased resolution
  4. More ensembles
  5. Better communication
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8
Q

How is the knowledge of the atmosphere imperfect?

A
  1. Data voids
  2. Weather in between observing locations
  3. Instrument sensitivity/error
  4. No observation of important quantities
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9
Q

How is the computer model imperfect?

A
  1. Resolution

2. Physical understanding

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10
Q

How has use of initial conditions improved?

A
  1. More data

2. Better data assimilation

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11
Q

How has the model improved over time?

A
  1. Better resolution

2. Better preresentation of physical processes

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12
Q

How is chaos embraced?

A
  1. Stochastic parameterisations

2. Ensembles

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13
Q

Parameterisations deal with a lack of ____ and ___ of unresolved physical processes

A

Knowledge

Observations

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14
Q

What is parameterised at the scale of 10-100km?

A
  1. Cumulus
  2. Two stream radiation
  3. Planetary boundary layer
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15
Q

Sensible weather reflected by parameterised quantities

A

Clouds
Precipitation
Surface temperature
Near surface winds

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16
Q

Measurements available for convection

A
  1. Hydrometeors

2. Winds

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17
Q

Example of quanities needed to verify paramaterisations

A
  1. Turbulent kinetic energy
  2. Boundary layer depth
  3. Aerosol concentrations
  4. Convective heating profiles
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18
Q

Challenges of parameterisation

A
  1. Reductionist
  2. Observations needed
  3. Relationships assumed to be universal
  4. Act on a single profile
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19
Q

Most simple form of convection to parameterise

A

Dry convection

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20
Q

Soundings with large CAPE tend to be ____ at low levels

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A

Warm and moist

21
Q

Soundings with large CAPE tend to be ___ at upper levels

22
Q

What is not redistributed in convection parameterisations?

23
Q

Why may the cloud base be lower than predicted?

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A

Dry air entrainment

24
Q

Why may the cloud base be higher than predicted?

Study These Flashcards
A

The parcel still has momentum at the EL

25
A critical issue for convective parameterisations
Timing and momentum
26
How to address convective and stratiform areas
1. Diagnose convective/explicit precipitation separately 2. Interaction with microphysics 2. Model grid spacing
27
How to improve parameterisations
1. Increase resolution | 2. Explicitly represent convection
28
Key problem with tropical rainfall forecasts
Convection parameterisation
29
In the Atlantic & Eastern Pacific, instabilities form in the troughs of the...
African Easterly Jet
30
Which direction do the monsoon winds flow?
Southwest
31
Vertical wind shear has a ___ effect on tropical cyclone intensification
Negative
32
Tropical cyclones decay with landfall due to
1. Less latent & sensible heating | 2. Increased friction
33
Less latent and sensible heating leads to
Weaker convection
34
Weaker convection leads to less intense ___ gradients
Pressure
35
4 defining qualities of a tropical cyclone
1. Non-frontal, synoptic-scale 2. Originates over tropical waters 3. Organised deep convection 4. Closed circulation with well-defined centre
36
Maximum vertical motion measures the strength of convection, related to the potential for...
Precipitation production
37
In convection, too little moisture aloft will result in...
Evaporation of towering cumulus
38
To produce a sustained convective system, you need
Mesoscale organisation
39
In a mesoscale convective system, vertical wind shear
Separates the updrafts and downdrafts
40
Separating the updrafts and downdrafts allows
Sustained convection
41
Stratiform precipitation and systems are...
Frontal
42
In a supercell, vertical wind shear is important for...
Vorticity and updraft/downdraft separation
43
What makes the jet stream baroclinically unstable?
Strong temperature gradient
44
Uneven heating and mountains can cause
Rossby waves
45
Before ETC occlusion, rainband is
In front of the warm front
46
After ETC occlusion, rainband is
Focused at the occlusion
47
Occlusion of the cold front isn't needed if the...
Isotherms wrap around the low
48
Wind which is warmed and dried by descent on the lee side of a mountain
Foehn winds

Meteorology (8 decks)

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