Module 12 - Key Concepts

Question 1

What did the Bem (2011) study claim about people’s ability to predict future events?

Answer 1

People could predict future events, but only slightly above chance (53% for erotic images)

This claim sparked debate on statistical validity and public interpretation of ‘significant’ findings.

Question 2

What is a p-value?

Answer 2

A probability value indicating how likely results are due to chance

A p-value below 0.05 is traditionally considered ‘statistically significant.’

Question 3

What does a p-value < 0.05 suggest?

Answer 3

Statistical significance but doesn’t guarantee the result reflects reality

Misuse can create false positives.

Question 4

What is p-hacking?

Answer 4

The misuse of data analysis to obtain significant p-values

Often through selective reporting or trying multiple statistical tests.

Question 5

What is the file drawer problem?

Answer 5

The tendency for non-significant or negative research results to remain unpublished

This skews the available evidence.

Question 6

How does prior probability influence the evaluation of research findings?

Answer 6

It affects how we interpret significant results

If a hypothesis is highly unlikely, even a significant p-value may not make it credible.

Question 7

What is prior probability?

Answer 7

The likelihood that a hypothesis is true before conducting a study

This influences the likelihood that a significant result is actually true.

Question 8

What is the reproducibility crisis?

Answer 8

A large number of published studies (especially in psychology) cannot be replicated

This raises questions about their validity.