Module 4: APPRAISE Evidence from Practitioners Flashcards
(17 cards)
Over a five-year period, whose professional expertise would you judge to be the least trustworthy (valid and reliable)?
A management consultant specializing in culture change
A baker specializing in making sourdough bread
A car salesperson specializing in selling second-hand cars
An eye surgeon specializing in eye laser surgery
A management consultant specializing in culture change
Rank order these options in terms of whose professional expertise you would judge to be more trustworthy (valid and reliable) over a five-year period: 1 = the most trustworthy to 4 = the least trustworthy. Use each number only once.
A business consultant specializing in Agile working
A sales manager specializing in selling life insurance policies
A dermatologist specializing in the treatment of eczema
A personal counselor specializing in how to live a happy life
3
2
1
4
Read the following scenario and determine whether the decision taken was based on System 1 or System 2 thinking.
A candidate applying for the position of project manager gives a presentation that uses poorly designed slides. In addition, he doesn’t smile often, and the suit he wears looks a little worn out. The organization’s senior managers therefore decide not to give him the job.
System 1
Read the following scenario and determine whether the decision taken was based on System 1 or System 2 thinking.
An international hotel chain decides to invest in a new customer relationship management (CRM) system. The IT director suggests inviting four well-known IT companies to tender for the development of the new CRM system. The CEO, however, decides that also two-lesser known IT companies will be invited to tender and that all tender proposals must be blinded, meaning that the names and logos of the tendering companies must be removed.
System 2
Read the following scenario and determine whether the decision taken was based on System 1 or System 2 thinking.
A well-known consulting firm recommends introducing Agile methods to boost the company’s performance. The CEO decides that she first wants to know what the research literature suggests about the benefits (effectiveness) and costs (possible negative effects) of Agile working.
System 2
Read the following scenario and determine whether the decision taken was based on System 1 or System 2 thinking.
A recently appointed managing director of a small manufacturing firm notices that the accounting system is not working properly and there is limited insight into the firm’s fixed and variable costs. The financial director suggests introducing activity-based costing, a popular costing method that is used by most large international manufacturing firms. The managing director is not familiar with this method but feels that if so many large manufacturing firms use activity-based costing, the method must be good for their company as well. He therefore decides to implement the method.
System 1
Read the following scenario.
In the months after the September 11 terrorist attacks, many people in the United States made the decision that traveling to their destination by car was far safer than traveling by air. Although statistically it is more dangerous to drive than to fly, having in mind the salient and dramatic events of September 11, these people felt that driving was the smarter choice.
Which of the following biases influenced their judgment?
Availability bias
Read the following scenario.
A small manufacturing company wants to cut costs. The CEO takes some tough austerity measures and checks the effect in the financial reports every month. If the reports show the company’s financial position has improved, he compliments his managers and considers the measures a success. If the company’s financial position has declined, he writes it off as normal fluctuation. For months, the CEO is convinced the austerity measures have an effect even though the company’s financial position remains constant.
Which of the following biases influences the CEO’s judgment?
Confirmation bias
Read the following scenario.
A new study suggests that most golfers overstate how far they can hit the ball. Forty percent think they can hit the ball much farther than they are able to.
Which of the following biases most likely influences the golfers’ judgment?
Overconfidence bias
Read the following scenario.
In 1997, Korean Air Flight 801 crashed into a hill while on approach to an airport in Guam, killing 223 people. After thorough investigation into the cause of the crash, it turned out that, in addition to a series of misfortunes—including bad weather and an offline warning system—the captain had made a wrong decision. This wrong decision, however, was noticed by the co-pilot, but due to the hierarchical Korean culture, he was afraid to question the captain’s judgment.
Which of the following biases influenced the co-pilot’s fatal decision not to speak up?
Authority bias
Read the following scenario.
As described in the introduction of this module, physicians for decades falsely believed that a stomach ulcer was caused by lifestyle factors, such as severe stress, because they noticed that people with a lot of occupational or personal stress were more likely to develop a stomach ulcer.
Which of the following biases influenced the physicians’ judgment?
Patternicity/illusion of causality
Read the following scenario.
In 1971, Philip Zimbardo conducted the Stanford prison experiment to examine the psychological effects of becoming a prisoner or a guard. The participants—college students—adapted to their roles well beyond Zimbardo’s expectations, as the guards enforced authoritarian measures and ultimately subjected some of the prisoners to psychological torture. Many of the prisoners passively accepted psychological abuse and, at the request of the guards, readily harassed other prisoners who attempted to prevent it. The entire experiment was abruptly stopped after only six days, when a Stanford PhD, Christina Maslach, objected to the conditions of the prison after she was introduced to the experiment to conduct interviews. Zimbardo noted that, of more than 50 people who had observed the experiment, Maslach was the only one who questioned its morality.
Which of the following biases may explain why none of the participants and observers protested against the harassment and psychological abuse of the prisoners? Check all that apply.
Group conformity
Authority bias
Read the following scenario.
Your CEO is very enthusiastic about a new, revolutionary model developed by Google to stimulate employees’ creativity and considers implementing it in the organization (an international bank). She suggests paying a visit to Google’s headquarters in California to see if this new model is indeed as successful as claimed. However, if your CEO were to visit Google, she might hear only success stories that will confirm her prior (positive) beliefs regarding the model.
What would be the best advice you could give your CEO to prevent confirmation bias?
In addition to visiting Google, visit a company where the implementation of the model has not led to greater creativity.
Read the following scenario.
Healthcare executives in a large, academic hospital are concerned with the number of medical errors made by the nurses and physicians. They strongly believe that a significant proportion of these errors are preventable and feel that the errors result from a poor safety climate within the hospital. They decide to discuss their view with some of the hospital’s most senior and authoritative medical specialists to see whether those specialists agree.
The executives’ decision to discuss their view with some senior medical specialists to see whether the specialists agree is a questionable decision because it leaves the executives prone to which bias?
Confirmation bias
Thinking again about the scenario in question 14, what should the executives do instead to avoid bias?
Healthcare executives in a large, academic hospital are concerned with the number of medical errors made by the nurses and physicians. They strongly believe that a significant proportion of these errors are preventable and feel that the errors result from a poor safety climate within the hospital. They decide to discuss their view with some of the hospital’s most senior and authoritative medical specialists to see whether those specialists agree.
Install a red team
Ask someone to play devil’s advocate
Actively seek information that contradicts their assumption
Consult people within the hospital who may have contradictory beliefs
Read the following scenario.
You are the founding partner of an IT startup. Because the company is very successful, you need to hire a new software developer.
Which of the following would be the best choice to avoid confirmation bias during the selection process?
Blind all personal information in the application letters and leave out the photos.
If you had to compose a team that would advise you in important decisions, what factors would you consider?
The composition of the team (age, social background, area of expertise)
An explicit decision-making process
Appointing a devil’s advocate
Setting up a second team to work on the same problem
