Paper 2 citations Flashcards
(129 cards)
1
Q
Continental crust - 61% SiO2, 35 km, 2.2 Gyr, 2830 kg/m3
Oceanic crust - 50% SiO2, 6.5 km, 60 Myr, 2890 kg/m3
Divergent plate boundaries and seafloor spreading
Convergent plate boundaries and subduction
Continental drifting
Earth’s interior
A
Sigurdsson et al. 2015
2
Q
Adiabatic decompression melting
Flux melting
Plume melting
Basaltic magma - 45-55%SiO2, mafic, 1000-1200C, low viscosity
Andesitic magma - 55-65% SiO2, 800-1000C
Rhyolitic magma - 65-75% SiO2, felsic, 650-800C, high viscosity
Rise of magma and silica melts
A
Sigurdsson et al. 2015 (magma)
3
Q
1991 Mt Pinatubo eruption, 12th June in the Philippines
First eruption with climate impact in the satellite era
Smaller than 1815 Tambora and 1883 Krakatau
Same time as Typhoon Yunya
1000 km wide umbrella and 35 km tall cloud
A
McCormick et al. 1995
4
Q
20 Tg of SO2 released into stratosphere from Pinatubo
Aerosols decayed after 4 years, coagulation
Ozone depletion from halogens
0.7°C cooling in 1992/3 and cooling for 5-6 years
5°C cooling in northern hemisphere high latitudes
1815 Tambora - VEI7, Indonesia, 3 x more SO2, no summer
Toba 74 kya - modelled 12°C cooling
Long term and short term climate change
A
Schmidt et al. 2015
5
Q
Amount of sulphur, latitude, height of cloud, season
Max scattering efficiency at 0.2 micrometer radius of aerosols
Extratropical eruption forcing in NH winter
81% stronger temp anomaly/VSSI than tropical at same lifetime
1783 Laki had strong NH forcing of -5.5 W/m2
Cooling of 536 CE eruption
Height and volume as most important
A
Toohey et al. 2019
6
Q
1257 Samalas Indonesia - greatest stratospheric injection of the common era
Reconstructed from tree rings and ice core records
96-128 Tg of SO2 and extra tropical summer cooling 0.6-5.6°C
1 million died
A
Vidal et al. 2016
7
Q
Eruption precursors
Surface and atmosphere show what happens in deep mantle
A
Caricchi et al. 2021
8
Q
Thermal monitoring (in situ and satellite infrared)
VIIRS detects 60% more alerts in Chile than MODIS
Thermal cycles with lava dome rise and collapse
A
Campus et al. 2022
9
Q
LIP - large (>1mn km3) mafic magmatic events over mn of years
Siberian Traps - 252 Ma, 8 my, 7-15 mn km3
Deccan Traps - 66 Ma, 4 km high, 1.3 mn km3
Effusive CO2 release and rare explosive SO2 release
LLSVP of primitive lava
End-Permian 252 Ma (96% lost) and end-Cretaceous 66 Ma
Kill Mechanisms
Greenhouse, hothouse and icehouse
A
Ernst et al. 2017
10
Q
Siberian Traps systemic climate swings
8°C initial warming and 34°C warming from feedbacks
Punctuated by temporary cooling (4 events) for 0.2 My
Acid rain, loss of vegetation, CO2 drawdown
Positive and negative feedback
Oceans respond after 3 years
Residence time of emissions
A
Black et al. 2018
11
Q
Mt Ruapehu, New Zealand, Aotearoa
Matauranga Maori and Western geoscience
Whakapapa knowledge system
Genealogy of Ngati Rangi Iwi people
Cosmogony versus cosmology
Traditional risk management
Somatic knowledge integrated into science
A
Pardo et al. 2015
12
Q
Extinction is 1000-10000 times greater than background record
A
de Vos et al. 2014
13
Q
1 in 4 species at risk
Habitat degradation, overexploitation, invasive species, pollution, climate change
A
UN and IPBES 2019
14
Q
Natural capital
£1.5 trillion in England
Insects provide £500 million benefits to UK agriculture
Declining insect populations due to monoculture/pesticides
A
Natural England 2024
15
Q
Defining biodiversity
Taxonomic, genetic, ecological, ecosystem, functional diversity
Direct use value - food, medicine, industry
Indirect use value - biogeochemical cycling, longevity
Functioning = redundancy, rivet-popping, idiosyncrasy, ecological equivalency
Non use value - future options, sustainability, existence, intrinsic value
A
Gaston and Spicer 2012
15
Q
8.7 million species (±1.3 million)
90% of species yet to be described
2% of species are land plants
67% of species are insects (2-30 million)
1 ha of TRF has 473 tree species each with beetles
A
Mora et al. 2011
16
Q
Indigenous fire practices and regimes
Set fires outside of wildfire season
Mosaic patches of resources
High biodiversity and resilience
A
Hoffman et al. 2021
17
Q
Ecosystem functioning
Ecosystem services and 2005 MEA
Biodiversity increases biomass productivity and cycling
Loss of biodiversity across trophic levels
Biodiversity importance increases over time and space
Services can involve trade offs
A
Cardinale et al. 2012
18
Q
Services as provisioning, supporting, regulating and cultural
Natural capital
A
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
19
Q
Functional diversity
Larger than minimum number as buffer to perturbation
Primary production and NPP has positive relationship with plant diversity
Redundancy theory
A
Loreau et al. 2001
20
Q
Trophic cascade and top-down forcing
Indirect species interactions through mesopredator release
Visible through perturbation
Keystone species
A
Ripple et al. 2016
21
Q
Lake Guri experiment
1986 Dam and 4300 km2 reservoir in Venezuela
Habitat fragmentation
All islands lost top predators in 4 years
Smaller islands lost 75% of species
Ecological release - 30 x more howler monkeys
A
Moore 2006
22
Q
75% of crops are dependent on pollinators
A
Ritchie 2021
23
Q
Bees transported to California for almond cultivation
Commercial honey bee colonies provide $20 bn service in US
Bee colonies are collapsing
A
Chen et al. 2019
24
Trophic cascade in Yellowstone National Park
Wolves extirpated in 1920s, increased elk, less recruitment
Wolves reintroduced in 1995/6, recruitment of alder, aspen and cottonwood
Density effect - 19000 elk in 1994, 6300 elk in 2008
Behavioural effect - less foraging, changed use and movement
Ripple et al. 2015
25
Grasslands - few wolves, more grazing, root growth, high NPP
Boreal forest - few wolves, moose browse on trees, low NPP
Wilmers and Schmitz 2016
26
Land has highest NPP
Net energy fixed by plants
Higher NPP in boreal/extratropical summer
Naselli-Flores and Padisak 2022
27
Highest NPP in tropical forests and savannah grasslands
Photosynthesis peaks at 18-20°C
NPP increases with rain until saturation
No linearity between light and NPP
10% of energy passed onto next trophic level of food chain
40% of terrestrial NPP appropriated by humans
Begon et al. 2006
28
Natural capital has tripled since 1997
$145 trillion in 2012
Costanza et al. 2014
29
19% of biodiversity priority areas are protected
13% of terrestrial land is protected globally
Highest diversity - mammals in rainforests, birds in the subtropics, amphibians in the Amazon
Birds threatened in Andes and SE Asia islands
Jenkins et al. 2013
30
Latitudinal gradients and reasons
Highest diversity at low latitudes - Amazon, Congo, SE Asia
Not uniform, loss at unknown but accelerating rate
2.3 million km2 of forest lost 2000-2012
Habitat loss has greatest impact not fragmentation
Utilitarian argument for maintaining biodiversity
Protecting hotspots could stop 2/3 of species disappearing
Cox et al. 2016
31
Hotspot expanse decreased from 11.8 to 1.4% of land
Hotspots - >1500 endemic plant species, lost 70% primary veg
44% of plant species and 35% of verterbrate species
Hottest are Madagascar, Philippines, Sundaland, Mediterranean and Tropical Andes (20,000 plants)
More species than expected from climate and latitude
$400 mn NGO investment since 1989
Myers et al. 2000
32
Hayley Wood Cambs
Sedges and oxlip respond to drought and waterlogging
Coppicing - bluebells and oak don't compete for light
Rackham 1975
33
Ecological tolerance
Ecological niche (fundamental and realised)
Competitive exclusion
Huggett 2002
34
Nature of Cambridge Project
Backs and college gardens
1600 species in 8x8km
Urban ecology
Hill 2022
35
Passive rewilding and natural succession
Monks Wood expansion after abandonment
Shrub-thicket phase for first 20 years
Anemochory and zoochory
Spatial clustering, same timescale as active planting
Broughton et al. 2021
36
Evolutionary timescales in the Phanerozoic
85% of genetic diversity preserved in remaining 4% of Permian
Cenozoic climate change and continental reconfiguration
Cox et al. 2016 (historical patterns)
37
Megafauna decline in the Late Pleistocene
9/50 megaherbivores and 6/15 megacarnivores remain
Ecological engineers - trample 15-95% of savannah cover
Cascades of extinction - less cycling and dispersal
Fires in semi-arid regions, closed canopies in wet regions
Kruger Park - African bush elephants uproot 1500 trees/year
Malhi et al. 2016
38
Pleistocene overkill
Humans evolved into megafauna niche space (1Mya Africa, 50-7kya Europe)
Homosapiens as superpredators, hunters, domesticators
Svenning et al. 2024
39
6% of terrestrial mammals extinct since Pleistocene
Food webs lost 57% more links between species
Range contractions and extinction risk
Fricke et al. 2022
40
Insular extinctions - 60% mammal, 81% bird, 95% reptile
Founder effect and genetic bottlenecks
Gigantism (Galapagos giant turtle) and dwarfism (pygmy elephant fossils in Crete)
Ecological release
Loss of dispersal power
90% of Tristan da Cunha endemic beetles have reduced wings
Checquerboard of niches
Whittaker et al. 2023
41
Adaptive radiation from speciation and adaptation
Ecological release at periphery of dispersal range
135 Hawaiian honecreeper species from 25 colonists
81% are endemic and have adapted bills
Losos and Rickleffs 2009
42
Endemism
89.9% of plants are endemic in Hawaii
Allopatric and sympatric speciation
Evolutionary isolation
Invasive species - Brown Tree snake in Guam (15000/mile2)
Defenceless vertebrate fauna - all seabirds and 10/13 native forest birds extirpated in Guam
Changed trophic links and ecosystem structure
Whittaker and Fernandez 2007
43
Invasive species cost Europe €12 billion a year
Viruses in water impact humans
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, 2020
44
DEFRA report for uneven effects of biodiversity loss
Women, poor, rural and indigenous people
Mexican women travel for low paid work as low resources
Loss of Sami traditional knowledge in Norway
Booker et al. 2022
45
Global Biodiversity Framework - protect 30% of earth by 2030
$200 billion needed/year - parks, reserves, indigenous land
Decrease nutrient loss by 50%
Ecosystems approach
Key biodiversity areas - 22mn km2 network, 18k species
Argues that 26-68% of land should be included
Farooq et al. 2023
46
Quaternary is 2.52 Ma - now
General cooling trend and GI cycles
Saw-tooth cycles since 800 ka
Gradual cooling (100ky) and abrupt warming (10ky)
Dutton et al. 2015
47
Archive resolution - oceans 150my, lakes and loess my, ice 800ky, trees ky
MPT 1.2-0.8 Ma as cycles went from 41 to 100 ka, more intense
Orbital forcing - eccentricity, obliquity, precession
Precession dominates in Holocene multimillenial change
Speleothems - U dated, more CO2 when warm, oxygen isotopes
Ruddiman 2014
48
Last Glacial Maximum 21 ka and last glacial period 115ka - 11.7ka
Ocean circulation
Paleomagnetism - Brunhes Chron 780ka, Laschamp Excursion 40ka
DO cycles of long term cooling and rapid warming (10-15C)
NADW has higher 13C/12C ratio and AABW is depleted in 13C
LGM had higher Cd levels so AABW took over
Bradley 2015
49
Oxygen isotope fractionation (low ice/high marine ratio in glacials), 3cm marine sediment accumulation/1ky
Evidence in ice cores of 100, 41 and 20 ky cycles
Holocene climate - stable warming, 8.2 ka decline in 18O (3.3C cooling)
Palynology and ice sheet proxies
Radiocarbon dating of tree rings
Anderson et al. 2013
50
Eemian ice cores - CO2, dust, volcanic emissions, 𝛅18O
More -ve 𝛅18O in glacials as water is enriched
Greenland records 120 ka
Antarctic records 800 ka
Evidence of DO events in Asia dust, GIC, marine cores, pollen
Schüpbach et al. 2018
51
Lake Malawi lake sediments 1.3 Myr
Pollen preserved in expanding rift
Shows MPT
Lyon et al. 2015
52
Speleothems in Sanbao Cave China
Monsoons are orbitally paces
Precipitated CaCO3
Corresponds with benthic 𝛅18O
Cheng et al. 2016
53
IntCal 20 calibration curve
Radiocarbon records anually resolved using tree rings, coral, speleothems, marine cores, varve lakes
Reimer et al. 2020
54
Radiocarbon dating
Covers the last 50 ky
Dates end of life when radiocarbon uptake ceases
Marine reservoir effect
Dendrochonology calibration
Bronk Ramsey 2008
55
Orbital forcing as pacemaker, Milankovitch cycles
Insolation changes most 65-80°N
Periodicity in Chnese loess, marine 𝛅18O and Antarctic ice core
Eccentricity is less than 1% of forcing - internal feedbacks
Hayes et al. 1976
56
Internal feedbacks - +ve and -ve
Tipping point
Bistable regime
DO events every 1.5 ky in glacials
Stadial/interstadial (10°C Greenland warming)
DO evidence and Heinrich events
Ruddiman 2014
57
Early Pleistocene onset
Reduced CO2, ocean mixing and cloud albedo triggered cooling
NH glaciation 2.7 Ma in eroded material of benthic 𝛅18O
Fedorov et al. 2013
58
Closure of Panama Isthmus 3.2-2.7 Ma
North Atlantic salinity increases
Gulf Stream moves moisture and heat
O'Dea et al. 2016
59
Deep CO2 reservoir in MPT Southern Ocean
Sea ice impeded upwelling and CO2 outgassing
Herben et al. 2023
60
Dust increases in glacial strong winds
Dust increases albedo and cooling
LGM had 2-3 x more dust
Iron fertilisation in oceans is 2/5 of declining CO2
Yue et al. 2011
61
Importance of internal feedbacks
Only models with all feedbacks match proxy observations
Insolation has negligible effect on GI climate change
Köhler et al. 2010
62
AMOC - Gulf stream moderates temp gradients
Formation of NADW from salt oscillator
Freshwater flux switches AMOC off as convection stops
Bifurcation and noise-induced tipping
Interstadial northwards heat transport switches AMOC off
Stadial switches AMOC on
Heinrich events lead to breakdown of AMOC
Rahmstorf 2024
63
6 Heinrich events 60-16.8 kya
Laurentide ice sheet collapse at peak of coldest stadials
IRD deposition and basal melting
Marcott et al. 2011
64
Greenland Ice core evidence for the Holocene
Stability in Holocene 11.7 ka - present
11.4 ka PBO, 9.3 ka event, 8,2 ka event cooling anomalies
Stable oxygen isotopes since 8ka
Volcanic reference horizons to link three ice cores
Vinther et al. 2006
65
Holocene terrestrial biomass decreases CO2 levels
Anthropogenic carbon emissions
Increase in CO2 by 25 ppmv 7-1 ka and since LGM
Elsig et al. 2009
66
Historical lead pollution as Holocene evidence
Lead in GIC linked to war and silver production
Iron age and romans in Serbian peatlands
Longman et al. 2018
67
Yakutian woolly mammoth
Radioacarbon dated to the LGM
Excavation shows cold, dry treeless grassland climate
van Geel et al. 2008
68
Palynology from fossil assemblages
Indicator species approach (Iversen 1944)
Mid-Holocene Denmark from thermal tolerance of holly, ivy
2-3°C warmer summer, 1-2°C warmer winter
Multivariate transfer functions
Pollen is highest spatial and temporal coverage for late Quaternary
Chevalier et al. 2020
69
8.2 ka cooling event for 200 years in 1.2 permil 18O amplitude change
Slowdown of AMOC - GIC, marine cores, palynology
Laurentide ice sheet collapse, drainage of Agassiz/Ojibway
Freshwater forcing
PBO had 10% less accumulation and low 18O for 100 years
Rasmussen et al. 2007
70
Historical Quaternary data for Medieval times
Parish registers of harvests
Famine and migration
Anthropogenic perturbation in last 2500 years of European tree rings
High climate variability 250-550 CE when migration was high
Büntgen et al. 2011
71
Dendrochronology
Tree ring width changes with temp and precipitation
Fossil and modern trees correlated
Master chronology
Boreal summer orbital forcing means Scandinavia extreme warm/cold summers have more than 5°C temp difference
Esper et al. 2012
72
Little Ice Age C16-C19
0.2-0.5°C cooling
Peak cooling in 1600-1680
PAGES2K 2019
73
LIA
Glaciers expanded in LIA
Retreat of European glaciers since LIA
Roe et al. 2017
74
Multiproxy reconstructions
1°C increase every 100 years in early Holocene
1-2°C warmer at hypsithermal 9-4.5 ka
Medieval warm period and LIA
Kaufmann et al. 2020
75
11 ka summer solstice at perihelion so higher NH seasonality
Today summer solstice at aphelion so higher SH seasonality
Marcott et al. 2013
76
Decreased ice albedo in early Holocene
Ice sheet albedo forcing until 6 ka
Booth et al. 2024
77
Sunspot activity and 11 year solar cycles
Maunder Minimum around the LIA
High solar activity = less radiocarbon in tree rings and ice core
4 grand solar minima, clusters of aerosol rich eruptions
Steinhilber et al. 2012
78
Environmental risks top list of perceived long term global risks for both likelihood and impact
WEF, 2024
79
Defining mitigation and adaptation to climate change
UNFCC 2009
80
Nature based solutions
Protect, sustainably manage and restore ecosystems
Mitigation NbS
Protect and expand existing stores of carbon
Sustainable agricultural practices
Land use change (deforestation) is 12% of emissions
IUCN 2022
81
LULUCF is less than 10% of emissions reduction
Avoiding deforestation is the most cost effective NbS
Need to remove 730 billion tonnes of CO2 which is 2 billion ha of forest to limit warming 1.5C
Climate impacts - wildfire, drought, floods, disease in SS Africa
IPCC 2022
82
NbS can provide 1/3 of cost-effective mitigation by 2030
Griscom et al. 2017
83
NbS could save 10 Gt CO2/yr (protecting land, management of working land and restoration)
Long term benefits
Current trajectory of 3°C warming by 2100
NbS reduces 1.5-2°C peaks by 0.1-0.3°C
Giardin et al. 2021
84
Bonn Challenge to counter 14% of emissions
Reforest 350 milllion ha by 2030 to sequester 1.6 GtC/yr
43 countries committed degraded land
2020 150 million ha target not met
Potential forest area of 8.7 bn ha decreases with climate change
IUCN 2011
85
Restoring natural forests should be 1/3 of pledges but 1/2 of Bonn challenges is for commercial plantation
Plantations release CO2
8.6mn ha of natural regeneration could sequester 1PgC by 2100
Native species in tropics most effective
70 years for forests to mature
Brazil pledged to double plantation area
Vietnam pledged 14.6 Mha natural regeneration (mangroves)
Lewis et al. 2019
86
Greenwashing of NbS
Monoculture plantation by private companies store less/release carbon
Conifers in Europe correlate with 0.12C warming from albedo
100 mn ha target in Africa threatens grasslands
Tensions over land tenure
Risky to rely on natural regeneration
Neimark 2018
87
Biodiversity as foundation of NbS
Co-benefits
Harness the power of ecosystems
104 countries have NbS in climate solutions
Seddon et al. 2019;2021
88
Carbon loss from biodiversity loss could be 2-3 x the loss from permafrost thawing
On track for 9-39% reduction in terrestrial NPP
Weiskopf et al. 2024
89
Hotter summer and wetter winter in Manchester
High emissions - 6°C warmer and 38% more rain
Carter et al. 2015
90
Drought in Hungary from agriculture and climate change
1 ha side reservoir to mitigate summer drought and flood relief
Fernandes and Guiomar 2018
91
Sahel - 3-6°C warming by 2100 and drought
Great Green Wall - 8000 km, 100mn ha restored, 250 mt C
Mosaic of initiatives across 21 countries
Communal gardens, ecotourism (Koyli Alha), resilience
1/5 built so far but takes decades for resilience
80% of Sahelians depend on agriculture and livestock
Goffner et al. 2019
92
Mangroves as coastal defence, 90% from cyclones
8000 km2 lost 2000-2014
Protects 15 million, reduces damage $65 bn
Economic benefits in USA and China
Social benefits in India and Bangladesh
$500 million protected in Cancun
Loss of current mangroves would lead to 30% more land and people damaged
Menendez et al. 2020
93
Urban heat island effect
Trees for shade and evapotranspiration
30% increase in trees could reduce deaths by 1/3
Urban ecology
Lungman et al. 2023
94
Urban co-benefits
Sustainable drainage systems
Trade offs and multidirectional effects
Social justice
Raymond et al. 2017
95
Evidence for NbS
Only 15% of studies in LICs in the global south
Afforestation has trade offs
66% of Paris Agreement signatories have NBS included in pledges
Grain for Green program China used exotic species unsuited for semi-aridity so there was water insecurity
Trade offs in Chile where conifer timber plantations reduce summer streamflow
Grasslands store carbon, mangroves reduce erosion wetlands mitigate flood risk
Grasslands could sequester 1 billion tons of carbon if sustainably managed
Chausson et al. 2020
96
Volcanic gas emissions
Eruption styles and hazards
Plate boundaries and tectonic theory
The mantle - peridotite, pyroxenes melt first and olivines last
Mantle convection
Decompression within 300km of surface and 1-20% of peridotite melts
Water expelled from subducted plate at 100km
Composition of magma and fractional crystallisation
Oppenheimer 2011
97
Peridotitie is abundant olivine as well as pyroxene and garnet
Phases changes in the mantle transition zone
Factors that effect climate impact of eruptions
Polar vortex and stratospheric thermal gradients
Larger eruptions before the modern era
Mantle is highest velocity in uppermost layers
Basaltic oceanic crust
Parfitt and Wilson 2006
98
Mantle convection and plate tectonics
Subsolidus convection of solid mantle
Primordial heat from the core
Fractional crystallisation and partial melting in geochemical reservoirs
Mafic magma from decompression melting
Felsic magma from hydration melting
Chemical heterogeneity in the mantle
Tackley 2000
99
Benefits for communities near volcanoes
Mount Mayon and Gunung Awu
2015 Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction
Community participation and indigenous knowledge alongside scientific expertise
Language conflicts in emergency mobilisation
Bankoff et al. 2021
100
Influence of LIPs
CO2 warming and SO2/silicate weathering cooling
Oceanix anoxia, acidification, sea level change, toxic metals
U-Pb dating shows link to extinctions
Pyroclastic material and stratospheric volatiles
Gradstein et al. 2020
101
Interannual variability following Mt Pinatubo
First few months aerosols were between 40° latitudes
1991 forcing of -4.3Wm2
Greatest effects over central Pacific, Atlantic and Congo basin in August (10N to 30S)
Cloud condensation nuclei
Minnis et al. 1993
102
Siberian traps released 36,000 Gt of CO2
Would correlate with average increase in temp from 25 to 40°
Evidence in carbon isotope excursions
Significant decline in ocean surface temperature
Cui et al. 2021
103
More than 1/2 of ecosystem services degraded since 1950
Keystone species and functional traits
Ecosystem approaches
Ecosystem resilience dependent on functional diversity
Nutrient and water cycling
75% of change to earth surface is human induced
Chapin 2012
104
Trophic downgrading from removal of large apex consumers
Food chains shortened
Top down forcing
Trophic cascades in all major biomes
Rinderpest in East Africa 1800s led to fewer large herbivores and increased wildfires
Decline in wildfires 1980s once rinderpest was eradicated and shift from shrubland to grassland
Estes et al 2011
105
Differentiate between abundance and species richness
Niche space and resource use differentiation
Multitrophic and multifunctional systems
High diversity allows for adaptation
Wilby and Hector 2008
106
Dingoes (Canis lupus dingo) induce trophic cascades in arid Australia
Regulation of herbivore populations
Dingoes rely on large prey in dry seasons as there is less plant growth
Predation and competition intensified
Dingoes were invasive 3.5-5 ka which reduced fox populations
Ecological release of small mammals like rats
Letnic et al. 2011
107
6 of 9 planetary boundaries breached
NPP was destabilised in the industrial revolution
Forests have strongest coupling with climate system
1/8 of species at risk of extinction
10% of genetic diversity lost in past 150 years
NPP is 6GtC lower than expected due to land use change
Richardson et al. 2023
108
Value in species redundancy
Ecological equivalency within functional groups ensures future ecosystem stability
Naeem 1998
109
Long term data for 66 bumble bee species in North America and Europe
Hotter temperatures increases local extinction risk independent of land use change
Climate change leads to stronger and more widespread bumble bee declines especially in Europe
Soroye et al. 2020
110
Converting 479 ha of intensively farmed arable land in Cambridgeshire could reduce GHG emissions by 65% and increase flood water storage capacity
More land for livestock grazing, wildlife and recreation
Peh et al. 2014
111
NBS are cost effective and sustainable
Mediterranean organic farming increases soil organic carbon 14%
Slovenia passive rewilding 70% of 70km2 catchment but high water demand
Ponds and wetlands increase water retention in Augustenborg
Canopy cover 40% is optimal for semi-arid climate in Portuguese agroforestry
Keesstra et al. 2018
112
Afforestation and peatland restoration in Scotland
New woodlands on wet unimproved land as drained land is for farming
Sitka spruce takes 10-30 years to reach net carbon sink status
Carbon gains are smaller for grasslands
Food imports
Long term peatland benefits may require initial release of methane and carbon
Brown 2020
113
30,000 ha planted in late 1980s but only 9000 ha since 2010 in UK
Forests are ageing in the UK
Broadleaves grow slower
Forest cover - Scotland 18.5%, Wales 15%, England 10%, Northern Ireland 8%
Greater afforestation capacity in Scotland
Area required for settlement will increase from 8% to 12% by 2050
Aim is 30,000 ha a year in the UK by 2050
CCC 2019
114
UK afforestation should focus on poor quality grazing land
Reconnect ancient woodlands
Climate regulating services of woodlands is £2 billion a year in UK
5 million ha of low risk land for potential reforesting
Needs to be a shift in diet and consumption
Loss of carbon when planted on organic soils
Prioritise mixed species planting
Coomes et al. 2021
115
More carbon stored in soil (esp Tundra and heathland) than above ground biomass
Afforestation increases carbon storage in above ground biomass but not in soil
Initial loss of SOC compensated by birch gains 39 years after planting in Scotland
Afforestation on temeprate grasslands leads to SOC loss in first 50 years after plantation
34% of Scotland's land avaliable for woodland expansion
Friggens et al. 2020
116
57% of woodland in England is sustainably managed
Carbon capture by English woodland decreased from 1990-2010 levels
68% of English woodland is native
90% of newly planted woodland was broadleaf
Forestry commission 2024
117
The Quaternary - record, framework, causes
Ice-coean-climate interplay
AMOC and salt oscillator hypothesis
Ice rafted debris evidence
DO cycles destabilise ice sheets
Heinrich events not pre 65 ka
Bipolar teleconnection
8.2 ka event - lower isotopic values in ice, thinner ice
Lowe and Walker 2014
118
Potential overstated AMOC sensitivity to FW
Holocene metlwater AMOC paradox
Younger Dryas 12.9-11.7 ka due to weakening of AMOC
He and Clark 2022
119
Pollen stratigraphy for last 2k Fennoscandia
Medieval warm period 1000 AD in lake pollen
Radiocarbon dated pollen
Tree rings shows 536 AD cooling but pollen does not
Agrees with tree rings and ice that coldest was 1400-1500 AD
Bjune et al. 2008
120
Bipolar seesaw hypothesis
Weak AMOC leads to onset of greenland stadials
Heat accumulates in Southern ocean
Cold stadial in N Atlantic when Antarctica warms
North-south forcing with 200 year lag
Oceanic teleconnections
DO and AIM coupling
Pedro et al. 2018
121
Feedback of deglaciation, volcanism and CO2
Increased eruption in Iceland, US and Chile in 20 ka and Holocene deglaciation
Unloading of 1km ice leads to 0.1% increase in melt above solidus (60m of melt in 60km thick melt region)
100 MPa pressure decrease increases melt by 1%
16000 km3 magma produced since LGM
Co2 feedback as 2-6 factor increase
Huybers and Langmuir 2009
122
Mid-Pleistocene transition in marine cores
Ice sheet feedbacks and albedo
Ice survives first insolation maximum
Eroded regolith and decreased basal sliding
CO2 solubility increases with falling SST
Increased weathering so lower CO2
Ice sheet dynamics - eroded regolith so ice sheets thicken and respond to forcing slower (100k)
Berends et al. 2021
123
Dingoes hunt European introduced fox, rabbit and house cat
Dingoes protect native threatened species like quolls, numbats and wallabies
Mulga forests die out where dingoes are poisoned
Ecological release on arrival as Thylacine were extirpated from mainland Australia
90% of ground dwelling mammals extinct where dingoes are removed
Protected in Victoria but legally killed elsewhere
almost half of all mammal extinctions in past 200 years were in australia, 18 endemic species disappeared forever
Dingoes should be protected although they are not native
Levy 2009
124
Urban flood risk modelling in New Cairo
2000 buildings with high flood risk due to variable rainfall of 9-172 mm and deficient flood planning
Rain gardens as most effective NBS capturing 43.6% of stormwater
Climate and weather hazards account for 50-70% of all disasters and economic losses
2020 Dragon Storm - disease, 21 deaths, infrastructure damage
Permeable paving works best in conjunction with others
Combining NBS captures 8% more than required volume
Not effective for extreme storms
Walaa and Mustafa 2025
125
2021Fagradalsfjall eruption
Geochemical analysis of basalt and gas eruptions in first 50 days
Original magma source near the Mohorovicic discontinuity due to shallow reservoirs
Over 3 weeks there were more enriched melts from greater depths
Magma mixing from Moho and primitive melts
Increased magma flux pushes storage shallower
Decompression plume melting
Eruption of primitive olivine basalts as enrichment doubled
Halldorsson et al. 2022
126
2004-2006 Mt St Helens eruptions
RSAM, spectrograms, automatic seismicity detectors and time depth plots
Spider packages via helicopter delivered seismic monitoring stations within 250m of active vent
Telemetered broadband seismometers and infrasonic microphones
6 eruptions were phreatic with only 2 having tremors and sound waves prior
Tremors detected within 1-2km of volcanic crater
Aerophotogrammetry of new lava dome estimated volume - 190m above 2003 level
Network of low cost digital cameras
GPS ground deformation and thermal infrared imaging of vent clearing
Temeprature spines showed 500-700C in fractured regions
Sherrod et al. 2008
127
Infrasound signals as magma moves in Mt Etna open-vent shallow plumbing system
Frequency went from 0.7 to 3Hz during 20th Feb lava fountaining 2021
Magma rose 100m within 24 hours
Resonance no longer detected 4 hours before
Partial crater collapse so acoustics for next 51 fountain episodes not observed
Infrasonic gliding tracks magma position
Sciotto et al. 2022
128
Iceland dike intrusion 2021-2022
1700 earthquakes and spatial distribution detected using seismometers
Geodetic modelling showed shallow depth less than 1 km and high magma flow of 50m3 prior to diking
Decline in seismicity before 3rd august eruption on 375m long fissure
IMO detects P and S waves
Only large earthquakes are detected against high background activity
InSAR and GNSS observe rectangular dislocations and deformation
Geodesy creates interferograms
Parks et al. 2023
