POLS 233 Final Exam Review Flashcards
(123 cards)
1
Q
despite their flaws, public opinion polls remain the best method available for understanding what the public thinks. why?
A
-no selection bias
-margin of error (sampling error)
2
Q
what other ways do we have for understanding public opinion and what are the limitations of those methods?
A
convenience sample
limitations
-selection bias
-no way of evaluating how representative a sample is
3
Q
population
A
full set of individuals who could potentially take part in the research
4
Q
sample
A
a subset of the population
5
Q
what is the difference between a probability and a non-probability sample?
A
in probability sampling, individuals are selected randomly, whereas, in non-probability sampling, the selection is based on accessibility or the researcher’s judgment.
6
Q
why is probability sampling preferred?
A
-no selection bias (researchers do not choose who to interview)
-we can evaluate the representatives of the sample (margin of error)
7
Q
why is it possible to get a reasonably close approximation of public opinion with a survey of 800-1000 respondents?
A
the larger the sample, the smaller the error
8
Q
how do polling results change as you move from adults to registered voters to likely voters?
A
likely voters
-prior turnout
-knowledge about voting process
-correlates of voter turnout
9
Q
how do pollsters determine likely voters?
A
most pollsters use a combination of questions that measure intention to vote, interest in the campaign, and past voting behavior. different pollsters use different sets of questions to help identify likely voters.
10
Q
conventional wisdom is that the polls have gotten less accurate over time. is this true>
A
yes, but they were historically accurate in 2022
11
Q
how do we evaluate the accuracy of polling
A
the best way to measure the accuracy of a poll is to look a its absolute error-the difference between a poll margin and the actual margin of the election (between the top two finishers in the election, not the poll)
weighted average error takes into account the number of polls done by a polling organization
12
Q
polls are wrong but wrong in ways that make their predictions correct
A
pack
13
Q
what does the margin of error tell us about a poll result? What does it tell us?
A
the margin of error describes how close we can reasonably expect a survey result to fall relative to the true population value. the margin of error that pollsters customarily report describes the amount of variability we can expect and indicate candidates’ level of support
14
Q
explaining what happens when polling is wrong therefore is more like investigating someone’s overall health than it is like investigating a murder
A
pack
15
Q
polls’ true utility is
A
in telling us how close the race is
16
Q
how do we know what hte public wants?
A
-elections
-callas, letters, social media psots
-sientific opinipon pollling!Representing population preferences with a probability-based sample
* Random Samples versus Convenience Samples
17
Q
Why is public opinion polling better than other forms of know what the public thinks?
A
- No selection bias
- Margin of error! (sampling error
18
Q
consequneces of public opinion polling
A
Nonresponse!
Question wording (Measurement Error)
Social Desirability Bias
19
Q
Weighted average error
A
takes into account the number of polls done by a polling organization.
20
Q
Voting Could Be the Problem with Democracy (Reiter)
A
Random selection of representatives?
Allows the average person to participate Reduces campaign and money influence in elections (policy)
Deliberative polling
21
Q
Direct democracy can force governments to better represent the people - but it doesn’t always work out (Stokes)
A
Referendums & Initiatives
Influence of special interests & money
Use by autocrats (Putin) Potential depends on context!
22
Q
Three Stages of Ignorance (Borowitz)
A
- Ridicule: Dumb politicians pretend to be smart, ignorance not socially accepted
- Acceptance: Politicians pretend to be “regular” or “average”
- Celebration: Smart politicians play dumb
23
Q
The flow model of political system presented by
A
David Easton in “An Approach to the Analysis of Political System” (in World Politics,
24
Q
Classic Liberal Democratic Theory
A
Democracy as enlightening (and rooted in the enlightenment), committed to individualism, liberty, the rule of law (and equality before the law), a market economy, and limits on government power
- Given the opportunity to self-govern, citizens:
- Engage in politics (political participation)
- Learn about politics and the political system, becoming informed about candidates, political parties, and political issues
- Be tolerant of opposing points of view and accept democratic outcomes even when (especially when) they disagree with the outcome
25
Sigmund Freud and the Unconscious
implicit bias theories
26
Walter Lippmann
* Political beliefs as the result of stereotypes (pictures in our head)
27
freuds view of the human mind
the mental iceberg
28
Edward Bernays, & Political Propaganda: The Committee on Public Information
* Engineering of consent
* Manipulation of behavior
29
crowd theory
mob psychology
30
* Schumpeter
In Defense of Minimal Democracy
31
* The People's Choice (1948) & The American Voter (1960)
* Voters largely as uninformed & misinformed
* Little effect of campaigns (or news media) on voter preferences
* Campaigns primarily reinforce vote preferences
32
The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics - Converse (1964)
* The mass public lacks clear ideological beliefs (even if they identify with an
ideological label
* Beliefs lack constraint (meaning they aren't correlated)
* Beliefs are unstable across time
33
Views of the economy depend
more on partisanship than economic indicators!
34
Guardian (or Elitist) Democratic Theory
Elites are better educated, better socialized into democratic values, and guard the system against the excesses of an uninformed & misinformed public (Madison's Federalist #10)
35
* Michels -
The Iron Law of Oligarchy (Christopher Hayes - The Twilight of Elites) - Elites are Inevitab
36
C Wright Mills -
The Power Elite
37
Page & Gilens
- Elites Control Policy Decisions
38
An Economic Theory of Democracy (1957) -
Anthony Downs
39
V.OKey, Retrospective Voting & the failure of political elites
* "The voters are not fools"
* "If the people can choose only from among rascals, they are certain to choose a rascal"
40
Limited Information Rationality
* Satisficing versus Optimizing
* Heuristics and Cognitive Shortcuts (Party Affiliation)
* The Miracle of Aggregation (Random versus Nonrandom Error)
41
Little to no evidence that higher turnout helps the Democratic Party. Turnout rates do not predict election results! Instead, elections are function of underlying partisanship and short-term forces (economic conditions, political scandal/mood, candidates, international events).
Turnout matters but it matters which is side is enthusiastic and mobilized.
Daron Shaw & John Petrocik
42
Politics occurs through the competition between groups
Pluralism
43
Competition results in policies that reflect the public interest (e.g., competition between unions and employers).
Pluralism
44
The public becomes informed about issues they care most about (and that affect them)
Pluralism
45
* The system is elitist BUT elites are competing and the elite class is permeable (meaning it is not set by birth)
Pluralism
46
"The flaw in the pluralist heaven is that the heavenly chorus sings with a strong upper-class accent." Schattschneider
Pluralism
47
Does our political system align with what we know about psychology (and choice)?
* Behavioral Economics (Predictably Irrational)
* Policy Nudges and Paternal Libertarianism
* Decoy Effects
* Anchoring
* Dunning Kruger Effect (Overconfidence)
* Framing
48
Strict Id Laws Don't Stop Voters BUT stricter voter id laws fix a problem that doesn't exist. There is also little evidence of systematic voter fraud
Enrico Cantoni & Vincent Pons -
49
The Meaning of the 2023 Election
* The Meaning of Elections is Constructed
* Off Year Elections (and Reading Tea Leaves)
* Kentucky:
* Andy Beshear for President (?) +5
* Ohio
* Abortion +12
Marijuana
* Virginia
* Glenn Youngkin (15 week state ban)
* Democrats win House, maintain control of the Senate
* Mississippi: Elvis is dead
50
"Federal Housing Administration, which was established in 1934, furthered the segregation efforts by refusing to insure mortgages in and near African-American neighborhoods - a policy known as "redlining."
At the same time, the FHA was subsidizing builders who were mass-producing entire subdivisions for whites - with the requirement that none of the homes be sold to African-Americans"
51
Voters are not generally well-informed
This creates a challenge for "classic (liberal) democratic theory."
52
Guardian (Elitist) Democratic Theory:
Democracy needs guardians who are more knowledgeable, engaged, and support the rules of the games. But can we trust the elites?
53
Pluralism
Classic democratic theory is unrealistic, voters know what is important to them, and organize and participate through organized groups. Group competition Policy in the public interest.
* Pluralism is also elitist, but elites compete and the elite class is permeable
54
Revisionist Democratic Theory
Satisficing versus optimizing (party identification as a heuristic) Retrospective voting (the voters are not fools)
55
Motivated Reasoning (Versus Bayesian Updating)
* Cognitive Misers versus Bayesian Statisticians
* Directional versus Accuracy Goals
56
Making Political Choice Difficult (Institutional Design)
* Do we ask too much from average citizens?
* Long ballots and frequent elections
* Campaigns are armed with better data and an ability to target individual voters
* The rise of digital media, increased choice in information, and the ability to spread misinformation (there is no penalty for lying)
57
THE PARADOX OF CHOICE
TOO MUCH CHOICE LEADS TO PARALYSIS AND DISSATISFACTION (As does information overload)
58
Does our political system align with what we know about psychology (and choice)?
Behavioral Economics (Predictably Irrational)
Policy Nudges and Paternal Libertarianism
Decoy Effects (adding a third option)
Anchoring
Dunning Kruger Effect (Overconfidence)
Framing
59
Motivated Reasoning
Rooting for a team alters your perception of the world
60
Evolution has likely left us with an ideological immune system that fights off uncomfortable thoughts
Misperceptions about the other side. We become less supportive of democracy when we believe the other side is less supportive of democracy.
61
Anthony Downs
R=PB-C where P is the probability your vote makes a difference, B is the benefit of voting, and C is the cost of voting. An individual would rationally vote if R is greater than 0
62
The Cost of Voting
State registration laws
Convenience voting (mail by ballot)
Time & Distance to polling station
63
What explains voter turnout?
Beyond SES (socio-economic status)
* Partisan strength
Competitive elections
* (Perceived) ideological distance between candidates
Campaign mobilization efforts (being asked to vote)
Importance of social networks
Emotion (anger) - maybe high voter turnout isn't such a great thing?
64
What explains election outcomes?
Electoral Context (Including the Rules of the Game)
State/District Characteristics (Districting, Demographics)
National Conditions
Presidential approval (Surge & Decline)
Economic Conditions (Unemployment, Inflation, Economic Growth)
Senate Elections (Exposure: Seats Up)
Presidential Elections as State Elections (rather than a national election)
Electoral College
65
Do Campaigns Matter?
Candidate Characteristics
Trust, honesty, competence
* Issues & Issue Ownership (Agenda Setting)
What is the most important issue? Does it favor Democrats or Republicans?
"It's the economy, stupid!" What is the campaign about? Issue Framing - Is the economy good or bad? Which party is better able to handle the issue?
66
nate cohn 6 kinds of democratic voters
-the moderte establishment
-the traidtional conservatives
-the right wing
-the blue collar populists
-the libertatrian conservatives
-the newcomers
67
Not Your Father's Democratic Party (Edsall)
Declining Democratic support among non-white working-class voters
68
Partisan Polarization
1. Congress is more polarized than ever.
2. The Republican Party is more far-right than ever.
3. The share of House districts that are truly competitive is tinier than ever (less than 10 percent).
4. The share of House districts splitting their tickets hit a 100-year low in 2020 (fewer than 4 percent).
5. Partisan margins in the House are uniquely narrow.
6. The dimensionality of voting in the House has collapsed into a single dimension.
7. The Republican Party is growing more internally divided
69
Agenda setting
the ability of the media to decide which events and issues get attention
* "Is a news outlet reporting on the most important events of the day, or are they over-reporting some events and under-reporting others?"
70
Framing
how news media interprets and presents specific events
* "What aspects of an issue/event is a news outlet most focused on?"
* "How is a news outlet speaking about a particular issue/event?"
71
Accuracy
the extent to which the information presented is rooted in reality (e.g., misinformation)
* "Are they presenting facts/statistics fairly?"
72
Republicans are more trusting of the news they get from their main source of news (though they are still not as trusting as Democrats)
Trust declines if the sources of news is described as "mainstream."
73
Turn of 20th Century: Progressivism
Muckraking: widespread journalistic investigations
into political corruption Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle"Immigrant Children in New York, Standard Oil Monopoly
74
Enter the 24-hour Cable News Cycle
As number of channels increase, economic model changes
CN
More channels + more time slots → more consumer choice
Instead of maximizing total audience share, instead
ensure a smaller dedicated consumer base
Fill news cycle through speculation and analysis, rather than strict factual reporting
Decline of standard of objectivity
75
Goals of Congress (Fenno)
Reelection
* Power Within Washington
Good Public Policy
76
Why Congress needs to be revitalized (Phillip Wallach)
Madisonian design and the deliberative role of congress ("manyness") * Legislative politics as creative, governing as distinct from elections
Woodrow Wilson and the need for greater efficiency * Legislative politics as enacting mandates, ability to act on voter preferences
Parliamentary politics with strong ideologically based political parties * Three Possible Outcomes
Decrepitude: More of the Same
Rubber Stamp: Executive Governance
Revival: Return to the Madisonian Ideal
77
Congress is Organized to Help Members Win Reelection
Reelection
* Power within Washington
* Good Public Policy
* Importance of reelection to the other goals and to the structure and organization of congress.
* Power is decentralized through committee/subcommittee systems
78
Congress is not very representative of the population (but has become more diverse with respect to race and gender
* Descriptive Representation
Congress is older, better educated (lots of lawyers), whiter, and more male than the population (but is getting *mostly* better)
79
Congress is Highly Responsive to Constituents and Organized Interests!
* Substantive Representation
* Delegate v Trustee
Descriptive v Substantive
* Constituencies
* Casework & Constituency Service
80
Congress Doesn't Do a Good Job Solving Problems
The Defensive Advantage in American Politics
Role of interest groups in drafting legislation and in
congressional committees
The importance of congressional committees
Assignment to committees Screening (90% of legislation dies)
Representation and committees?
Floor debate/Activity
House Rules
Senate Filibuster
Conference Committees
Presidential Decision
Sign
Veto
Pocket veto
Not sign and let the bill become law
81
Cycles of Presidential Approval
Presidential honeymoons
Midterm Elections
Expectations, Disillusionment, Forgiveness
Promise and Performance
82
Supreme Court Decision Making
Case or Controversy
Jurisdiction
Appellate (Appeals from Circuit Courts)
Original (e.g.state disputes)
Writ of Certiorari (Rule of Four)
Cases versus issues
Amicus Curiae.
7000-8000 writs; ~80 granted
Oral Arguments (30 Minutes for Each Side)
Initial Decision
Majority Opinion: Who Writes the Majority Opinion (Decided by the most senior justice in the majority);
Dissenting & Concurring Opinions
Affirm, Reverse, Vacate and Remand
83
Supreme Court Reform
* Packing the Court: Why Nine Justices?
* Term Limits for Justices (w/staggered terms?)
* Changing the Court's Jurisdiction
84
Over time, the share of income (or wealth) earned by the top 1% in the United States has increased
Distinguish between wealth & income (and wages) and real v current dollars.
No matter how you measure it, economic inequality is growing and challenges an underlying democratic principle of "one person one vote"
BUT worth remembering....
To be poor in the United States today is to enjoy a higher standard of living than most people in the world and throughout history.
Argument that inequality spurs innovation (and motivation) and social mobilityBUT this doesn't help explain growing inequality!
85
Share of income controlled by middle income Americans has declined as income controlled by wealthier Americans has increased over time
This contrast with remarkable post-WWII period (1940s - 1970s) when incomes (and wealth) were more equally distributed.
1970s are often identified as a turning point. What happened in the 1970s?
86
The share of wealth has also shifted
Bottom line: The rich have gotten richer relative to the middle and lower classes
87
Nonvoters are more likely to be young, racial minorities, less educated, and lower income.
As a result, the political system is less responsive to these groups
88
Higher admission rates among students from high-income families are driven by three factors
legacy preferences for children of alumni, higher non-academic ratings, and athletic recruitment.
89
White Americans, compared to Black Americans, are less likely to say increased attention to the history of slavery and racism is good for society.
Note as well: Strong partisan differences.
90
Wages of wealthier Americans have increased more rapidly and relative to lower income groups.
Note again: This is not to say wages for lower-income groups have not increased BUT the increase has been slower, creating rising inequality
We often talk about this in terms of wage stagnation.
Over the last several years, wages are increasing but so is inflation.
91
In terms of purchasing power, wages have remained relatively stagnant for most Americans over time.
Once adjusted for inflation, average wages have remained largely unchanged since 1964.
92
But this is misleading, wages for higher income groups have increased, while wages for lower income groups have stagnated.
Why has this happened? According to Page & Gilens, this is the result of public policy
1) Weakening of labor unions (intentional and designed) & deregulation.
2) Globalization & free trade (capital)
3) Immigration
4) Technology & automation
Which, in turn, is a result of the political influence that results from wealth
93
Historically, when productivity increased wages also increased.
Starting in the 1970s, wages have not kept pace with productivity.
As we have become more
productive (largely via technological innovation), wages have not increased
Improvements in productivity have made the rich richer but not workers..
94
Throughout American history most children have been better off financially than their parents.
This is increasingly not the case. Today, there is a good chance (50/50) you will not be as well off as your parents.
95
And social mobility in the United States has declined. Think of this as the opportunity for "rags to riches."
The chance of a person growing up poor in and becoming rich is less true in the US than in many other countries.
Decline in social mobility is tied directly to economic inequality
96
Wages of wealthier Americans have increased more rapidly and relative to lower income groups.
Note again: This is not to say wages for lower-income groups have not increased
BUT the increase has been slower, creating rising inequality
We often talk about this in terms of wage stagnation.
Over the last several years, wages are increasing but so is inflation
97
In terms of purchasing power, wages have remained relatively stagnant for most Americans over time
Once adjusted for inflation, average wages have remained largely unchanged since 1964.
98
Economic Inequality as a Political Problem?
1. Partisan divisions in whether or not there is too much economic inequality.
2. One reason why it is difficult to address is it tends not to be at the top of the issue agenda.
Even so, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump based part of their appeal on the idea of a "rigged" economic system and a "rigged" political system.
Note: Health care is one reason for increased inequality as it increasingly takes up a larger share of income (so wage and income gains go to covering medical expenses)
99
Public opinion on what explains economic inequality?
Republicans look more at individual factors.
Democrats look more at the political and economic system.
100
HOW MERITOCRACY FUELS INEQUALITY (Michael Sandel)
Meritocracy as creating opportunities OR as a justification for inequality.
Sandel argues for the latterWhy?
1. Success is due, not just to individual talent (talent does matter), but to good fortune. * Success is due to the arbitrariness of talent and the capriciousness of the market in
rewarding specific talents. The good fortune to live in a time that values your particular talents (Lebron James) 2. Belief in meritocracy reinforces beliefs that success is deserved and that the less successful are
undeserving. In today's world, this means: * Placing undue value on a college education as the key to economic success (the rhetoric of
rising). Colleges as universities can entrench inequalities. * Representation in Congress is increasingly dominated by college-educated elites. Where is the working class?
3. Globalization has contributed to inequalities, but little has been done to help workers,
because of meritocratic politics. * Increased productivity has not resulted in increased wages for workers (but CEO salaries have increased)
4. Contributive (rather than distributive justice): A political agenda focused on the dignity of work. Need to rethink what counts as a valuable contribution to the common good and whether our technocratic politics are rewarding those contributions (e.g., should we tax income earned from labor at higher rate than income earned through investments?)
101
The Determinants and Consequences of Admission to Highly Selective Colleges (Chetty et al)
High-income and leadership positions in the U.S. are disproportionately held by people who attended Ivy-Plus colleges
102
The Determinants and Consequences of Admission to Highly Selective Colleges (Chetty et al)
Attending an Ivy-Plus college instead of a flagship public college triples students' chances of obtaining jobs at prestigious firms and substantially increases their chances of earning in the top 1%.
103
Without governments, would countries have more inequality, or less? - Angus Deaton
In standard economics, a well-functioning market is efficient but in a well- functioning market at least one person is left less well-off
One function of government is to address market failure and provide for equality and fairness through taxation/redistribution and to regulate markets to assure competitionHow well do they do?
Rent-seeking, when special interests use the government to enrich themselvesThe US spends more on health care than other countries, yet has worse health outcomesWhy? Pharmaceutical and health products industries lobby government.
"It is possible that American democracy today has been damaged to the point where it is redistributing up, not down. The libertarian case for small(er) government should not necessarily be thought of as an argument that favours the rich."
104
Economic Inequality
By most measures (income, wealth, wages), inequality has increased since the 1970sThe rich are getting richer.
Worker productivity is increasing disconnected from wages.
Social mobility is lower in the US than in comparable western democraciesThe chances of working your way up from poverty is lower than in the US than in many
other countriesThis appears to be the result of three forces:
The decline of unions (beginning in the 1970s) and the increase in deregulation. Globalization, companies were able to outsource manufacturing
Technology and automation
SandelIn a "meritocracy" the people who win the game in round one have build-in advantages in round two (and three and four and five)..
As an example, consider the advantage that higher income groups have getting into "Ivy-Plus" colleges and how those admissions subsequently affect economic and political outcomes.
105
Economic Inequality
* Why is this a "wicked problem"? (*A wicked problem is a problem that is difficult or impossible to solve because of incomplete, contradictory, and changing requirements that are often difficult to recognize).
Normative question: Is inequality "bad"? Argument that inequality is the result of individual effort (meritocracy) and that inequality spurs innovation, hard work, and striving.
Even if we accept that it is "bad," how do we fix it? Do we limit free trade? Restrict immigration? Increase access to, and affordability of, higher education? Can we create more manufacturing jobs?
This may be shifting. Donald Trump defended Social Security and Medicaid, criticized free trade and immigrationJoe Biden enacted the biggest public investment programs in decadesBoth Trump and Biden showed interest in antitrust policies, unions have become more active, prominent, and successful
Examples: Electric cars and computer chips.
106
John Rawls & the Veil of Ignorance
Behind the veil of ignorance, you
have no knowledge of your natural
abilities, or your position in society. (or of your sex, race, or individual tastes).
107
James Madison - Federalist #10
Self-interest drives behavior and the formation of factions (groups)
Control self-interest through institutions that limit separate and check power.
108
The Foundations of Political Equality & the Origins of Institutional Racism
* The Declaration of Independence ("All Men Are Created Equal")
The Constitution provided for equal protection of the law
Due Process Clause - 5th Amendment: no one shall be "deprived of life, liberty or property without due process of law." BUT also provided the 3/5ths compromise
Dred Scott Decision (1857):Scott had no legal right to sue for his freedom at all because Black people (whether free or enslaved) were not and could not become U.Scitizens.
The Civil War Amendments
13th AmendmentNeither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.
14th Amendment: No state shall deny "to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws. 15th AmendmentThe right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by
the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitudeThe Election of 1876 (Hayes v. Tilden), The compromise Reconstruction ("Birth of a Nation" 1915) of 1877, and the End of
Southern Democrats would throw electoral votes to Rutherford BHayes in exchange for removing federal troops from the South.
109
Jim Crow Segregation & Denying Voting Rights
All White Primaries
Poll Taxes
Literacy Tests
Grandfather clauses
Plessy v. Ferguson: Separate but Equal
110
The Civil Rights Movement
Brown v. Board (1954): "All Deliberate Speed"
The Civil Rights Act of 1964
The Voting Rights Act of 1965 (Shelby County vHolder570 U.S. 529 (2013)
Loving v. Virginia (1967)-Interracial Marriage
111
De Jure versus De Facto Discrimination (The End of De Jure Discrimination)
Rational Basis Test (21-year-old drinking age)
Strict Scrutiny: Burden of proof on government
Intermediate Scrutiny (Gender)
De Facto racism has consequences on families, health, educational outcomes, employment, treatment by the police, and wealth.
112
De Facto Discrimination: Inequalities based on neighborhood
These are due both to individual decisions on where to live AND policy that limited Black home ownership (redlining)
113
Lessons from the Opportunity Atlas
Children's outcomes in adulthood vary sharply across neighborhoods that are just a mile or two apart
Places that have good outcomes for one racial group do not always have good outcomes for others
Moving to a "better" neighborhood (defined by outcomes) earlier in childhood can increase a child's income by several thousand dollars
114
Why racism costs us all
Why saying "you don't see race" is a problem? The pretense of color-blindness as racist
Divided by race (the politics of inequality) - Racial progress viewed as zero-sum (meaning policies that benefit African-Americans are seen as hurting White Americans).
Race limits investment in public goods (public spaces). Example of public swimming pools. Public schools (private school enrollment in Louisiana).
Heather McGhee: Not that there's inequality, and racism makes it worse for people of colorbut rather racism, structural racism, political and strategic racism makes inequality happen for everyone
115
woke racism: how a new religion has betrayed black america, john mcwhorter
Note what McWhorter does not say: He does not say that racism does not exit or that it doesn't hurt Black people but rather that dogmatic anti-racism is creating its own set of issues. Why? McWhorter uses the example of standardized testing, if there are
WOKE RACISM
How a New Religion Has Betrayed Black America
differences the solution is to eliminate those differences, not to accept those differences as due to bias (and unfixable)If we acknowledge bias (or race or education gaps), we need to fix them. To accept them is, McWhorter argues, racist.
Argument of significant improvements since 1965 (Voting Rights Act) but we can't admit progress because it is seen as damaging to the cause.
Why does he call it "religion" (and not "ideology")? Because it doesn't encourage thinking through contradictions or addressing logical problems. As he describes it, it is impenetrable.
"Ending the war on drugs would do more for black America than any amount of white people understanding their privilege." Education and worker training
116
The Politics of Public Policy
Policy creates politicsFeedback loops often define politics..
2. We often know "real world" conditions, but we don't always know how policies will affect those
conditions.
3. Even when we do know what real world conditions are and when we think we know policy effects, there are often tradeoffs in values. What are you willing to sacrifice to address. economicracial, or gender inequality? What about climate change?
117
Climate Change: What is the problem?
"human emissions of carbon dioxidenitrous oxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases have increased dramatically since the beginning of the industrial age" causes atmosphere and earth's surface to warm
* This Warmer air holds more water, warms oceans (which expand), and makes oceans more acidic
Increased rain fall is not uniformSome areas experience drought, others heavy rain fall and major
flooding.
Sea level rise contributing to coastal erosion, loss of wetlandssalinization of aquifersThis is also not uniform.
Increased severity of extreme weather and natural disasters hurricanes, wildfires. (Dispute over increase in numbers, not over severity).
Scientific consensus on that climate change is real and caused by human activity.
118
Mitigation (steps to reduce emissions) versus Adaptation (steps to minimize effects)
Mitigation: Increase use of electric cars, alternative energy sources (wind, solar, nuclear) Adaptation: Build more resilient and sustainable cities, build sea walls in coastal cities, protect freshwater from saltwater intrusion.
119
What Do We Know About Climate Change? (From a Practical Approach to Climate Change)
Climate change from human activity likely poses the biggest environmental risk modern society faces with global impacts and long term costs.
Two indisputable facts: (1) the earth has warmed; (2) human activity has played a significant role in this warming as the most important cause of warming.
Twenty of the warmest years on record have taken place since 1989.
Warming has been on the order of 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit since 1800.
Take as evidence the insurance industry which has adjusted its models to account for climate change.
* BUT do these facts provide public policy guidance?
There is significant scientific dispute over the future potential risks
Severe risks are entirely possible and need to be accounted for, but how likely are they? Regardless, negative consequences likely outweigh any positive, so policy should look for ways to mitigate harm and avert risks
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What Should We Do?
(Lehrer - A Practical Approach to Climate Change)
Eliminate harmful subsidies
Stop encouraging people to live near water (National Flood Insurance Program)
Stop "beach nourishment"
End subsidies to fossil fuel companies (and Lehrer argues for all energy production including wind and solar; example of nuclear energy) "Bridging the gap" with natural gas (fracking) - reduction in greenhouse gasses.
Better electricity: Better power and gas distribution grids (e.g, smart grids)
Tax Swaps (cap and trade; carbon taxes)
Overall, wealthier societies will be better able to deal with climate change, and developing the resources for the future is best left to markets and the private sector"In many cases, policymakers can do the most good by getting out of the way, reducing maladaptive subsidies, cutting taxes on productive activity, reducing regulation, and increasing overall energy production."
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Climate Change as a Wicked Problem
What is the problem?
* Scientists largely agree that the earth is warming and that the cause is greenhouse gas emissions (caused by human activity) * As a result, sea-levels are rising, temperatures are increasing, weather patterns are shifting,
and extreme weather events are more likely.
* Left unchecked this could affect the food supplies (including wine, beer, and chocolate) and freshwater supplies, increasing wars/military conflict, disease, etc. (Get ready to eat crickets!)
* Why is climate change a wicked problem? * Policy solutions require short term sacrifice for long-term gains (that may not be apparent).
* While there is agreement on the nature of the problem, the policy solutions are less clear. Climate change is an international problem requiring cooperation.
* Politically, we see partisan differences in recognition of climate change as a problem and in support for solutions (though majorities due support investing in alternative energy).
* Climate change also requires individual behavioral change (we can increase the supply of electric vehicles but we can't make people buy them).
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Budget Deficits (& Debt) as a Wicked Problem
* Government spending greatly outpaces government revenue. (We spend more than we make).
* As government debt accumulates, we have to spend more on interest payments (and less on government programs).
* Much of government spending is “mandatory" rather than "discretionary." To seriously cut the budget, you need to cut defense spending and
entitlement programs (Social Security, Medicare, and other health
programs).
* To seriously reduce the deficit, you need to increase taxes and cut spending. Public opinion routinely supports reducing taxes and increasing spending (when it is tied to specific popular programs).
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