PoP 6-8

Question 1

What is rational choice theory?

Answer 1

Decisions made based on expected value (value * probability)
Assumptions:
1. Processing information without bias.
2. People with similar information will have similar expectations of probabilities.
3. People are risk averse or risk neutral.
4. Preferences are transitive

Question 2

What is prospect theory?

Answer 2

How we judge value depends on a reference point. We evaluate outcomes relative to this point, leading to different risk propensities in the domains of gains and losses.

• If in domain of gains: risk adverse
• If in a domain of losses: risk acceptant or risk seeking. Eg. “fuck it” mentality by Korean president

Question 3

What is the endowment effect?

Answer 3

When one places a higher value on things already possessed or control compared to potential gains or alternatives.
Eg. When a country gains a territory (Russia), they accept the newly gain ones quicker than the one loses its territory (Ukraine).

Question 4

What is bounded rationality?

Answer 4

Individuals have cognitive limitations (limited information, time, and processing capacity) that prevent them from making rational decisions

Individuals rely on heuristics, which are simplifying mental shortcuts or rules of thumb used to make decisions

Question 5

What are some examples of heuristics?

Answer 5

1. Analogy: make decision of the present based on the past
2. Confirmation bias: we don’t like to change our mind. We promote information that confirms our bias and demotes those that don’t.
3. Anchoring: after setting an initial estimate, it is hard to adjust up or down from that relatively arbitrary starting point.

Question 6

What are affective dynamics?

Answer 6

1. Use or own reactions as evidence of how others feels/perceive
2. Feelings as evidence for probabilities of outcomes
3. Feelings as evidence for what we want

Question 7

What is anarchy?

Answer 7

1. Absence of central authority to enforce rules globally
2. No formal hierarchy, though states differ in size and power

Question 8

What are the other factors affecting war risk?

Answer 8

1. Military technology (favoring offense vs. defense)
2. Geography (natural barriers vs. open terrain)
3. Distribution of capabilities (deterrence through second-strike capabilities)
4. Political institutions (alliances, collective security)
5. Identity and trust (e.g., democratic peace theory)

Question 8

What is balance of power?

Answer 8

1. A self-regulating mechanism to prevent dominance by one state.
2. Requires continuous adjustments and shifting alliances.
   - Balancing: Aligning with weaker states to counter a dominant state.
   - Bandwagoning: Aligning with the dominant power for security.

Question 9

What are international institutions?

Answer 9

“Persistent and connected sets of rules” that shape behavior and expectations.

Question 10

How can institutions promote cooperation?

Answer 10

1. Reduce uncertainty – Transparency in state intentions.
2. Lower transaction costs – Rules streamline negotiations.
3. Create repeated interactions – States prioritize long-term benefits over short-term gains.

Question 11

What are the challenges of collective defence?

Answer 11

1. Free riding: Some states benefit without contributing.
2. Credibility issues: Will allies actually intervene?
3. Entrapment: States may be drawn into unwanted conflicts.