Random J10 Flashcards
(38 cards)
Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) What is it? & the 3 forms
Weak form efficiency
Semi-strong efficiency
Strong form efficiency
Eugene Fama in 1960s.
In an open & efficient market, security prices fully reflect all available info & adjust to new info.
Therefore, market prices are always correct & reflect the best estimate of their value.
You cannot therefore outperform the market by picking undervalued stocks as EMH says none are undervalued.
Only way to get higher than average returns is by purchasing riskier investments. A game of chance not skill.
Weak form efficiency (EMH)
Weak
Reflects all past price & trading volume info. Future prices cannot be predicted by analysing this type of historic data.
Semi-strong efficiency (EMH)
Semi-strong
Prices adjust to all public information rapidly and unbiasedly. So excess returns can not be earned by trading on that info.
Public info includes past prices, companies’ financial statements & announcements & economic factors.
Indicates companies’ financial statements are of no help forecasting future prices & to securing excess returns.
Strong form efficiency (EMH)
Strong form
Prices reflect all info an investor can acquire - public & private.
Strong form efficiency (EMH)
Strong form
Prices reflect all info an investor can acquire - public & private.
Investment styles - 2 categories & 3 stages or styles in each
Top down
1. Asset allocation
2. Sector selection
3. Stock selection
Bottom up
1. Value - analysis to show businesses whose value is greater than their marker price.
- GAARP - Growth at a reasonable price - finding companies with long-term sustainable advantages in terms of their business franchise, quality of management, tech or other specific factors. Worth paying a premium for quality characteristics. Adopted by active fund managers.
- Momentum - capitalise on existing trends. Believes large price increases in a security will be followed by additional gains and vice versa for declining prices. Adopted by middle of the road managers.
Trustee Act 2000 imposed statutory duty to…
Trustees must obtain & consider proper advice.
Have regard for the need to diversify.
When reviewing, they should consider whether, having regars to the standard investment criteria, the investments should be varied.
They can not rely on a financial adviser they have not personally appointed as they should check the person is qualified and able.
Tier one capital ratio
Used to judge the adequacy of a banks capital position.
Expressed as a % - higher % = greater the strength.
Geometric & arithmetic mean - what are they used for?
Geometric mean most suitable for calculating average historic returns as it compounds the returns and represents what the investor would actually have achieved.
Arithmetic mean is often used for predicting future return as it better predicts the future portfolio value.
Multi factor models
Allow for different sensitivities to different factors & the identification of each factors contribution to the securities return.
All share 2 basic ideas
1. Investors require extra return for taking risk
2. They are concerned with risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification.
Arbitrage pricing theory is an example of a multi factor model.
Single factor models
Relationship between risk & return. Indicated the expected return = risk free return + a risk premium.
The risk premium is determined by the level of a securities systematic risk I.e. it’s sensitivity to the market as measured by its beta.
Capital asset pricing model is an example of a single factor model.
Arbitrage pricing theory
Multi factor model.
A securities price can be predicted using the relationship between the security and a number of common risk factors, where sensitivity to changes in the factors is represented by factor specific beta.
More flexible assumptions than CAPM.
The model doesn’t tell us which factors are relevant. The factors will also change over time.
Expected return is determined by adding the risk-free return to figures representing the risk premium for each factor.
Key factors =
1. Unanticipated inflation
2. Changes to anticipated production level
3. Changes to default risk premium on bonds
4. Unanticipated Changes in return of long-term government bonds over treasury bills.
What is the balance of payments?
A country’s record of the trade transactions with the rest of the world.
Measured in terms of receipts and payments.
Receipt = sterling flowing into the country or a transaction that requires the exchange of foreign currency for sterling.
Payments = Sterling flowing out or conversion of sterling to another currency.
Consists of two offsetting components:
- Current account - deals with imports and export of goods and services
- Capital and financial account - deals with foreign investments in the UK and UK investments abroad, as well as loans.
What does the current account consist of?
Transactions in goods (visible trade)
Such as…
oil, agricultural products, raw materials, machinery & transport equipment, computers, white goods and clothing.
Services (invisible trade)
Such as….
international transport, travel, tourism & financial and business services.
It is split into 4 parts
1. Trade in goods
2. Trade in services
3. Investment income - the earnings on investments
held by Brits overseas (credit the balance of payments)
4. Earnings on investments held by foreigners in Britain (debit the balance of payments).
What does the capital account consist of?
Records all movement of money into and out of the country for investment. Could be real assets (land or buildings) or financial assets (shares, bonds and loans).
Sale of assets earn foreign currency, while purchases use up foreign currency.
There is a surplus if overseas investors invest more in the UK than UK investors invest overseas.
Any deficit on the current account is made up by the capital account.
If there is a deficit on both, the official reserves of foreign currencies owned by the BoE are used.
Growth investing
Identifying companies that exhibit the potential for above average growth, even if the share price seems expensive.
Key data such as price earnings ratios, price book ratios, or high dividend yields are ignored (things that are important to those following a value investment strategy).
Greater risk than value fund as dependent on judgements about the business, its markets & management.
Jim Slater - book Zulu Principle 1992. 11 criteria that a growth stock should be judged against & categorised as mandatory, important, or desirable.
Mandatory…
1. positive growth rate in earnings per share in at least 4 out of 5 of the past years.
- Low price earnings ratio relative to growth rate
- Optimistic chairperson statement in report & accounts
- Strong liquidity, low borrowings, and high cash flow
- Competitive advantage
It originally meant investing in companies that could grow into big, successful businesses, the strategy has moved on.
Now tends to seek out stocks with high growth rates that are trading at reasonable valuations.
Now means an investment style aimed to produce capital growth, rather than income. Could invest in recovery shares or special situations.
Blend funds investment approach
Combines the value & growth approaches.
Seek growth stocks, value stocks and those that exhibit characteristics of both.
Warren Buffet advocate of value strategy believes not much difference between value & growth. “growth and value investing are joined at the hip”
Indicates a combination of the two is probably better.
Growth perform best when economy is strong.
Value perform better when economy recovering from a downturn.
Income investing
Identify companies that can provide a steady stream of income.
Sustainable high dividend yields.
Steady, predictable income over the long term.
Momentum investing
Aims to capitalise on the continuance of existing trends in the market.
Involves buying shares that have had high returns over last 3-12 months & selling those that had poor returns over the same period.
Essentially believes it it possible to ride the trends and make profits.
Ignores asset allocation & diversification as instead focuses on most popular and faster growing investments.
Risk managed by quickly moving out of assets or industries that start showing deterioration.
Belief that stock more likely to continue in that direction than move against the trend.
Demanding strategy & highly volatile.
Contrarian investing
Goes against the conventional wisdom.
Opposite to momentum investing.
Whatever the majority is doing is likely to be wrong.
Use fund analysis in same way as value investors to determine whether a stock is undervalued or over priced but tend to be more aggressive in backing judgements.
Top down investing
Top down
1. Asset allocation
2. Sector selection
3. Stock selection
Bottom up investing
Focuses on unique attraction of individual stock.
- Value
- Growth
- Blend
- Income
- Momentum
- Contrarian
- Sustainable and responsible
Sustainable and responsible investing
ESG
Sliding scale from negative to positive screening
Negative screening
Religious
Socially responsible investing
(SRI)
ESG
Impact investing
Positive screening
Greenwashing - where companies exaggerate their green credentials.
SDR - Sustainability Disclosure Requirements - includes anti-greenwashing rules & investment labels (4).
Value investing
Seeks to identify stocks trading at less than their intrinsic value.
Belief that markets overreact to good and bad news, which leads to the share price movements, does not correspond with the long-term fundamentals of a company.
Based on the work of Benjamin Graham & David Dodd.
Graham identified 7 tests to identify stocks to be included in a defensive portfolio:
- Adequate size - recommended setting minimum size parameters such as annual sales.
- Strong financial condition - at least 2:1 (cash & near cash should be twice as much as near term liabilities) & long term debt should not exceed working capital.
- Earnings stability - no losses in last 10 yrs.
- Dividend record - history of paying dividends for at least 20 yrs.
- Earnings growth - Net income should have increased by at least a third on a per share basis over last 10yrs, using 3 year averages at beginning and end.
- Moderate price to earnings ratio - price of shares should not exceed 15 times average earnings for past 3 yrs.
- Moderate ratio of price to assets - should not be more than 1.5 times the book value of assets.