Reading 24 Alternative Investments Portfolio Management Flashcards
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If managed futures strategies are often momentum based, how do they achieve excess returns differently from traditional stock or bond investment vehicles?
The theory of market efficiency suggests that news is simultaneously available to all market participants and is quickly incorporated into market prices. However, research in behavioral finance indicates that investors may systematically underreact to information; consequently, security prices may trend, particularly in traditional investment vehicles (stocks and bonds). Actively managed derivative strategies that follow momentum, or trend-based, models have been shown to be profitable by capturing these trends.
Due diligence in PE
Among the major requirements for private equity investing is careful due diligence.
Due diligence items for private equity can usually be placed into one of the following three bins:
- Evaluation of prospects for market success.
- Markets, competition, and sales prospects. This review includes an evaluation of markets, competition, and sales prospects.
- Management experience and capabilities. Quality of management is often considered the single biggest factor in the success of a venture.
- Management’s commitment. Much of the success of a private equity company depends on its managers. Therefore, a potential investor will want to gauge how committed the managers are to the company. There are several factors to use in assessing this:
- Percentage ownership.
- Compensation incentives.
- Cash invested. How much cash or “skin” has management invested in the company?
- Opinion of customers.
- Identity of current investors.
- Operational review, focusing on internal processes, such as sales management, employment contracts, internal financial controls, product engineering and development, and intellectual property management.
- Expert validation of technology.
- Employment contracts.
- Intellectual property.
- Financial/legal review, including the examination of internal financial statements, audited financial statements, auditor’s management letters, prior-year budgets, documentation of past board of directors meetings, board minutes, corporate minute books, and assessment of all legal proceedings, intellectual property positions, contracts and contingent liabilities.
- Potential for dilution of interest.
- Examination of financial statements.
Fund selection is largely an exercise in evaluating the capabilities of the general manager’s management team. Factors that should be considered include the following:
- historical returns generated on prior funds;
- consistency of returns. Has the team had one successful fund or many?
- roles and capabilities of specific individuals at the fund. The investor will want to evaluate whether the fund manager has the needed human resources to effectively select and guide private equity investment;
- stability of the team. Did the current senior personnel generate the track record of the fund manager, or has there been significant personnel turnover?
Returns of Hedge Funds
Hedge funds typically report data to hedge fund data providers monthly, and the default compounding frequency for hedge fund performance evaluation and reporting is monthly.
The reporting and compounding frequency can materially affect hedge funds’ apparent performance for a number of reasons, including the following:
- Many hedge funds allow entry or exit to their funds quarterly or even less frequently.
- In calculating drawdowns, no compounding is typically applied to the loss.
The issues of leverage and the use of derivatives in return calculation also arise in hedge fund performance evaluation. The calculation convention followed in the hedge fund industry is to “look through” the leverage as if the asset were fully paid. Thus, as the beginning value in the above equation for rate of return, the return on a levered position is based on the amount actually paid plus any borrowing used to fund the purchase. The ending value is, of course, calculated on a consistent basis. Thus, leverage affects the weighting of an asset in the portfolio but not the return on the individual asset. The same principle of deleveraging applies to the computation of the rate of return when derivatives are included in the hedge fund portfolio.
Investors sometimes examine the rolling returns to a hedge fund. The rolling return, RR, is simply the moving average of the holding-period returns for a specified period (e.g., a calendar year) that matches the investor’s time horizon.
Historical Performance for Distressed Securities
Return distribution for distressed securities is distinctly non-normal. In particular, it reflects significant downside risk, with a negative skewness. The negative skewness indicates that, for distressed securities, large negative returns are more likely than large positive returns. Hence, there is a bias to the downside. In addition, the monthly return distribution displays a large degree of kurtosis. This indicates that these securities are exposed to large outlier events. The two statistics together indicate significant downside risk.
Consequently, the Sharpe ratio, which is based on the normal distribution assumption, may not capture the complete risk–return trade-off of distressed securities investing.
Types of Hedge Fund Investments
- Equity market neutral: Equity market-neutral managers attempt to identify overvalued and undervalued equity securities while neutralizing the portfolio’s exposure to market risk by combining long and short positions. Portfolios are typically structured to be market, industry, sector, and dollar neutral. This is accomplished by holding long and short equity positions with roughly equal exposure to the related market or sector factors. The market opportunity for equity market-neutral programs comes from 1) their flexibility to take short as well as long positions in securities without regard to the securities’ weights in a benchmark and 2) the existence of pockets of inefficiencies (i.e., mispricing relative to intrinsic value) in equity markets, particularly as related to overvalued securities. Because many investors face constraints relative to shorting stocks, situations of overvaluation may be slower to correct than those of undervaluation.
- Convertible arbitrage: Convertible arbitrage strategies attempt to exploit anomalies in the prices of corporate convertible securities, such as convertible bonds, warrants, and convertible preferred stock. Managers in this category buy or sell these securities and then hedge part or all of the associated risks. The simplest example is buying convertible bonds and hedging the equity component of the bonds’ risk by shorting the associated stock. The cash proceeds from the short sale remain with the hedge fund’s prime broker but earn interest, and the hedge fund may earn an extra margin through leverage when the bonds’ current yield exceeds the borrowing rate of money from the prime broker. The risks include changes in the price of the underlying stock, changes in expected volatility of the stock, changes in the level of interest rates, and changes in the credit standing of the issuer. In addition to collecting the coupon on the underlying convertible bond, convertible arbitrage strategies typically make money if the expected volatility of the underlying asset increases or if the price of the underlying asset increases rapidly. Depending on the hedge strategy, the strategy will also make money if the credit quality of the issuer improves.
- Fixed-income arbitrage: Managers dealing in fixed-income arbitrage attempt to identify overvalued and undervalued fixed-income securities primarily on the basis of expectations of changes in the term structure of interest rates or the credit quality of various related issues or market sectors. Fixed-income portfolios are generally neutralized against directional market movements because the portfolios combine long and short positions.
- Distressed securities: Portfolios of distressed securities are invested in both the debt and equity of companies that are in or near bankruptcy. Distressed debt and equity securities are fundamentally different from nondistressed securities. Most investors are unprepared for the legal difficulties and negotiations with creditors and other claimants that are common with distressed companies. Traditional investors prefer to transfer those risks to others when a company is in danger of default. Furthermore, many investors are prevented by charter from holding securities that are in default or at risk of default. Because of the relative illiquidity of distressed debt and equity, short sales are difficult, so most funds are long.
- Merger arbitrage: Merger arbitrage, also called “deal arbitrage,” seeks to capture the price spread between current market prices of corporate securities and their value upon successful completion of a takeover, merger, spin-off, or similar transaction involving more than one company. In merger arbitrage, the opportunity typically involves buying the stock of a target company after a merger announcement and shorting an appropriate amount of the acquiring company’s stock.
- Hedged equity: Hedged equity strategies attempt to identify overvalued and undervalued equity securities. Portfolios are typically not structured to be market, industry, sector, and dollar neutral, and they may be highly concentrated. For example, the value of short positions may be only a fraction of the value of long positions and the portfolio may have a net long exposure to the equity market. Hedged equity is the largest of the various hedge fund strategies in terms of assets under management.
- Global macro: Global macro strategies primarily attempt to take advantage of systematic moves in major financial and nonfinancial markets through trading in currencies, futures, and option contracts, although they may also take major positions in traditional equity and bond markets. For the most part, they differ from traditional hedge fund strategies in that they concentrate on major market trends rather than on individual security opportunities. Many global macro managers use derivatives, such as futures and options, in their strategies. Managed futures are sometimes classified under global macro as a result.
- Emerging markets: These funds focus on the emerging and less mature markets. Because short selling is not permitted in most emerging markets and because futures and options are not available, these funds tend to be long.
- Fund of funds: A fund of funds (FOF) is a fund that invests in a number of underlying hedge funds. A typical FOF invests in 10–30 hedge funds, and some FOFs are even more diversified. Although FOF investors can achieve diversification among hedge fund managers and strategies, they have to pay two layers of fees—one to the hedge fund manager, and the other to the manager of the FOF.
Other Performance Issues of Hedge Funds
- Young funds outperform old funds on a total-return basis, or at least old funds do not outperform young ones;
- On average, large funds underperform small funds;
- FOFs may provide closer approximation to return estimation than indices do.
- Performance fees and lock-up impacts. Periods of severe drawdown (e.g., 1998) may influence funds to dissolve rather than face the prospect of not earning the incentive fees because of HWM provisions. There is some evidence of an impact of lock-up periods on hedge fund performance. In the case of US hedge funds, funds with quarterly lock-ups have higher returns than similar-strategy funds with monthly lock-ups.
- Funds of funds. FOF returns may differ from overall hedge fund performance because of various issues, including a less direct impact of survivorship bias on FOFs because hedge funds that dissolve are included in the returns of the FOFs (there still is some survivorship bias, in that FOFs may remove themselves from datasets because of, for example, poor performance). FOFs may thus provide a more accurate prediction of future fund returns than that provided by the more generic indices. However, classification and style drift are issues with FOFs. A number of FOFs reported as diversified by category differ greatly not only in their correlation with standard indices but also in their sensitivity to general economic factors. Investors must use factors to test “style drift” of generic FOFs.
- Effect of fund size. On the one hand, there are potential advantages to a hedge fund having a large asset base. The fund may be able to attract and retain more talented people than a small fund and receive more attention from, for example, its prime broker. On the other hand, a smaller fund may be more nimble. Research has generally supported the conclusion that, overall, larger funds have earned lower mean returns and lower risk-adjusted returns than small funds.
- Age (vintage) effects. It may be difficult to compare the performance of funds with different lengths of track record. Comparisons of a fund with the performance of the median manager of the same vintage in a hedge fund’s style group can be revealing.
Colleteral return with respect to a commodity futures contract?
Represents the return on a fully hedged commodity position which should be approximately the risk-free rate.
The colleteral return is the result of the no-arbitrage that if an investor is long a contract and invests an amount in T-bills that will be equal to the amount required to pay for the required purchase at the maturity of the futures contract. Such a fully-hedge position should earn the risk-free rate.
Diversifiaction is one of the major issues that must be addressed when formulating a private equity investment strategy. To be considered diversified, investors must be able to invest in 5 to 10 different investments. In order to do this investors must typically have portfolios of at least?
Investors typically need to have portfolios of at least $100 million in order to be able to invest in 5 to 10 different investments and be considered diversified though a number of positions.
Historical Performance of Private Equities
Private equity returns have exhibited a low correlation with publicly traded securities, making them an attractive addition to a portfolio. However, because of a lack of observable market prices for private equity, short-term return and correlation data may be a result of stale prices.
Contrast the characteristics of two managed futures styles: systematic and discretionary
Systematic trading strategies are rule based and frequently trend following. Discretionary trading strategies rely on portfolio manager judgment rather than rules and include strategies based on fundamental economic data and trader beliefs.
Which absolute-return hedge fund strategy to which managed futures are mostly closely related (i.e., managed futures are often considered a subgroup of this hedge fund strategy)?
Managed futures are often considered a subgroup of global macro hedge funds because both strategies attempt to take advantage of systematic moves in major financial and nonfinancial markets
Benchmarks for distressed securities
In the context of hedge funds, distressed securities investing is often classed as a substyle of event-driven strategies.
Types of Private Equity Investment
- Direct venture capital investment is structured as convertible preferred stock rather than common stock. The terms of the preferred stock require that the corporation pay cash equal to some multiple (e.g., 2×) of preferred shareholders’ original investment before any cash can be paid on the common stock, which is the equity investment of the founders. Investors in subsequent rounds usually have rights to cash flows that are senior to preferred stock issued in previous financing rounds.
- The limited partnership and LLC forms are attractive because income and capital gains flow through to the limited partners (for the LLC, the shareholders) for tax purposes, thus avoiding the possible double taxation that can occur in the corporate form. The LLC form, available in the United States and some other countries under different names and with different requirements, is a hybrid of the corporate and partnership forms.
- Private equity funds of funds are also available. Such funds invest in other private equity funds. Management fees of funds-of-funds vehicles range from 0.5 percent to 2 percent of the net assets managed; these fees are on top of fees charged by the underlying funds. In contrast to the structure of private equity funds, in venture capital, the company receiving support is organized in a corporate form because one desirable exit is a successful initial offering of shares to the public.
Interpretation Issues of Historical Performance of Hedge Funds
The hedge fund investor should be aware of the following issues in selecting and using hedge fund indices.
1. Biases in Index Creation
- Value weighting may result in a particular index taking on the return characteristics of the best-performing hedge funds in a particular time period: As top-performing funds grow from new inflows and high returns and poorly performing funds are closed, the top-performing funds represent an increasing share of the index.
- Equal-weighted indices may reflect potential diversification of hedge funds better than value-weighted indices. For funds designed to track equal-weighted indices, however, the costs of rebalancing to index weights make it difficult to create an investable form.
2. Relevance of Past Data on Performance
- The best forecast of future returns is one that is consistent with prior volatility, not one that is consistent with prior returns.
3. Survivorship Bias
- Survivorship bias results when managers with poor track records exit the business and are dropped from the database whereas managers with good records remain. If survivorship bias is large, then the historical return record of the average surviving manager is higher than the average return of all managers over the test period.
- Survivorship bias is minor for event-driven strategies, is higher for hedged equity, and is considerable for currency funds. More importantly, for the largest hedge fund group, equity hedge funds, overestimation of historical performance because of survivorship bias has been previously reported to range from 1.5 percent to 2 percent. However, the bias may be concentrated in certain periods.
- One explanation for the proliferation of FOFs is that managers of these funds may be able to avoid managers destined to fail, thereby mitigating the survivorship bias problem. Investors may be willing to bear an additional layer of management fees to reduce exposure to the ill-fated managers.
4. Stale Price Bias
- In asset markets, lack of security trading may lead to what is called stale price bias. For securities with stale prices, measured correlations may be lower than expected, and depending on the time period chosen, measured standard deviation may be higher or lower than would exist if actual prices existed.
5. Backfill Bias (Inclusion Bias)
- Backfill bias can result when missing past return data for a component of an index are filled at the discretion of the component (e.g., a hedge fund for a hedge fund index) when it joins the index. As with survivorship bias, backfill bias makes results look too good because only components with good past results will be motivated to supply them.
- A variation of the survivorship bias that results from inclusion of a new hedge fund into a given index and its past performance is ‘backfilled’ into the index’s database. In other words, this bias occurs when the performance of a fund is added to database listings months or even years after inception.
Ray McQueen, CFA, invests in natural gas futures for the Horizon Energy Fund. The natural gas markets are in contango. McQueen lengthened the average maturity of the futures contracts in his portfolio. McQueen MOST LIKELY extended the maturity to:
a) Increase the correlation of the futures to stocks and bonds.
b) Take advantage of the positive roll return.
c) Decrease the forward price volatility.
The Samuelson effect predicts that forward price volatility will decrease with increasing maturity. Short maturity contracts exhibit greater price volatility because of near-term mismatches between supply and demand. Over time, these mismatches balance out, leading to less price volatility in long maturity contracts.
Choice “a” is incorrect. The correlation of natural gas futures to stock and bonds prices depends on the underlying correlation of natural gas with stocks and bonds. Extending the maturity of the futures contract should not affect the correlation.
Choice “b” is incorrect. An investor can earn a positive roll return when a futures market is in backwardation, which allows the investor to purchase less expensive, longer-term contracts as more expensive, near-term contracts expire. McQueen faces a natural gas futures market in contango.
Commodity Index Return Components
- A commodity futures investor needs to understand, in particular, how the returns on a futures contract-based commodity index are calculated. The returns have three components: the spot return, the collateral return, and the roll return.
- The spot return or price return is calculated as the change in the spot price of the underlying commodity over the specified time period.
- Collateral return or collateral yield comes from the assumption that the full value of the underlying futures contract is invested to earn the risk-free interest rate—that is, that an investor long a futures contract posts 100 percent margin in the form of T-bills (in such a case the futures position is said to be fully collateralized). The implied yield is the collateral return.
- Roll return or roll yield arises from rolling long futures positions forward through time.
- A monthly roll return is computed as the change in the futures contract price over the month minus the change in the spot price over the month. The closer the futures contract is to maturity, the greater the roll return/yield is.
- When the futures markets are in backwardation, a positive return will be earned from a simple buy-and-hold strategy. The positive return is earned because as the futures contract gets closer to maturity, its price must converge to that of the spot price of the commodity. Because in backwardation the spot price is greater than the futures price, the futures price must increase in value. (The opposite is true with an upward-sloping term structure of futures prices, or contango.) All else being equal, an increase in a commodity’s convenience yield (the nonmonetary benefit from owning the spot commodity) should lead to futures market conditions offering higher roll returns; the converse holds for a decline in convenience yields.
Hedge Fund Due Diligence
Although hedge funds typically provide an annual audited financial statement and performance review, they rarely disclose their existing portfolio positions. Possible concerns that arise from this lack of disclosure include the following:
- Authenticity of the hedge fund manager’s performance is doubtful if investors cannot verify the performance with a position report.
- Risk monitoring and management are difficult for investors without disclosure of trading and portfolio positions by the hedge fund manager. Without full disclosure of the holdings, investors cannot aggregate risk across their entire investment program to understand the implications at the portfolio level.
! The fund`s research strategy and expenditures are key to understanding how the fund operates
Which stage of financing generally supports futher expansion of production and sales?
The second stage of financing supports futher expansion of production and sales. The third stage of financing typically can support additional major expansion. First stage is used to begin manufacturing and sales.
Types of Managed Futures Investments
In addition to private commodity pools, managed futures programs are also available in separately managed accounts (sometimes known as “CTA managed accounts”). Publicly traded commodity funds open to smaller investors are also available. Managed futures programs may use a single manager or multiple managers.
Managed futures may be classified according to investment style. They are often classified into subgroups on the basis of investment style (e.g., systematic or discretionary), markets traded (e.g., currency or financial), or trading strategy (e.g., trend following or contrarian). Managed futures are at times viewed as a subset of global macro hedge funds, in that they also attempt to take advantage of systematic moves in major financial and nonfinancial markets, primarily through trading futures and option contracts.
The trading strategies of managed futures include the following:
- Systematic trading strategies trade primarily according to a rule-based trading model usually based on past prices. Most systematic CTAs invest by using a trend-following program, although some trade according to a contrarian, or countertrend, program. In addition, trend-following CTAs may concentrate on short-term trends, medium-term trends, long-term trends, or a combination thereof.
- Discretionary trading strategies trade financial, currency, and commodity futures and options. Unlike systematic strategies, they involve portfolio manager judgment. Discretionary trading models include those based on fundamental economic data and on trader beliefs. Traders often use multiple criteria in making trading decisions.
By the markets emphasized in trading, managed futures may be classified as:
- Financial (trading financial futures/options, currency futures/options, and forward contracts).
- Currency (trading currency futures/options and forward contracts).
- Diversified (trading financial futures/options, currency futures/options, and forward contracts, as well as physical commodity futures/options).
The Supply of Venture Capital and Private Equity
- Angel investors. An angel investor is an accredited individual investing chiefly in seed and early-stage companies, sometimes after the resources of the founder’s friends and family have been exhausted.
- Venture capital. Venture capital (VC) refers broadly to the pools of capital managed by specialists known as venture capitalists who seek to identify companies that have great business opportunities but need financial, managerial, and strategic support. Venture capitalists invest alongside company managers; they often take representation on the board of directors of the company and provide significant expertise in addition to capital. An individual pool is a venture capital fund (VC fund). An industry of investment firms sponsors series of such funds and sometimes a variety of similarly structured vehicles taking advantage of different opportunities. These firms may be private partnerships, closely held corporations, or sometimes, publicly traded corporations. In the United Kingdom, venture capital trusts (VCTs), which are exchange-traded, closed-end vehicles, provide an example of other opportunities that are available.
- Large companies. A variety of major companies invest their own money via corporate private equity in promising young companies in the same or a related industry. The activity is known as corporate venturing, and the investors are often referred to as “strategic partners.” Corporate venturing funds are not available to the public.
- Most investors participate in private equity through private equity funds. Among these funds, buyout funds constitute a larger segment than VC funds, as measured by assets under management or the size of capital commitments. Mega-cap buy-out funds take public companies private. Middle-market buy-out funds purchase private companies whose revenues and profits are too small to access capital from the public equity markets. The buyout fund manager seeks to add value by:
- restructuring operations and improving management;
- opportunistically identifying and executing the purchase of companies at a discount to intrinsic value; and
- capturing any gains from the addition of debt or restructuring of existing debt.
- Buyout funds can realize value gains through a sale of the acquired company, an IPO, or a dividend recapitalization. A dividend recapitalization involves the issuance of debt to finance a special dividend to owners (sometimes refinancing existing debt in the process).
VC funds and buyout funds have some expected differences in return characteristics
VC funds and buyout funds have some expected differences in return characteristics.
- Buyout funds are usually highly leveraged.
- The cash flows to buyout fund investors come earlier and are often steadier than those to VC fund investors. The expected pattern of interim returns over the life of a successful venture capital fund has sometimes been described as a J-curve, in which early returns (e.g., over the first five or six years) are negative as the portfolio of companies burns cash but later returns accelerate as companies are exited.
- The returns to VC fund investors are subject to greater error in measurement.
With respect to hedge fund investing, the net return to an investor in a fund of funds would be lower than that earned from an individual hedge fund because of?
Both the extra layer of fees and the higher liquidity offered.
FOF are usually considered good choices for individual investors because they offer diversification and usually more liquid. One problem with FOF is that they usually have lower returns. This is a result from both the additional layer of fees and cash drag resulting from a desire to have higher liquidity).
Size of the Real Estate Market
Estimates have been made that real estate represents one-third to one-half of the world’s wealth, although figures are hard to document.
Financing stages through which many private companies pass
The financing stages through which many private companies pass include the following:
Early-Stage Financing
- Seed—generally, seed money is a relatively small amount of money provided to the entrepreneur to form a company and prove that an idea has a reasonable chance of commercial success.
- Start-up—at this stage, the company has been formed and an idea has been proven but the company needs money to bring the product or idea to commercialization. This is a pre-revenue stage.
- First stage—if the company has exhausted its seed and start-up financing, the company may seek additional funds. Obviously, the company must have made progress from earlier stages to warrant an investment at this stage.
Later-Stage Financing:
- This is the financing of promising companies that need funds for expanding sales.
The Exit
Because private equity is by definition not publicly traded, the exit (the liquidation or divestment of a private equity investment) is often difficult and is a major item of strategy. The investor can realize the value of the holding in several ways:
- merger with another company;
- acquisition by another company (including a private equity fund specializing in this); or
- an IPO by which the company becomes publicly traded.
! Issuers of venture capital include formative-stage companies that are either new or young and expansion-stage companies that need funds to expand their revenues or preparefor an IPO.