Reasoning

Question 1

What situation is NOT likely to promote heuristic reasoning?

Answer 1

too much time to decide.

Question 2

What situations are likely to promote heuristic reasoning?

Answer 2

• too little/too much info= may not be able to process it

- too little time

Question 3

One heuristic is, when unsure, to do do what you did last time. To be successful what does thus heuristic require?

Answer 3

That past outcomes are predictive of future actions

Question 4

Most people guess that there are more English words beginning with K than with K as the third letter. What heuristic is this an example of?

Answer 4

Availability

- It’s easier to imagine words beginning with K than K as the third letter

Question 5

You believe football is the best sport. What would be an example of a confirmation bias?

Answer 5

Asking people who like football which other sports they play

Question 6

Metacognition is?

Answer 6

Judgements about other aspects of cognition

Question 7

Metacognition doesn’t affect judgements about other peoples cognition. True or false?

Answer 7

False

Metacognition can affect judgements about peoples cognition

Question 8

Metacognition can affect judgements about risks and costs. True or false.

Answer 8

True

Question 9

How might two people discussing their opposing beliefs correct for metacognitive errors?

Answer 9

It might drive them to explain their beliefs and so dispel an illusion of explanatory depth

Question 10

The Dunning-Kruger phenomenon suggests that..

Answer 10

Those who are below average lack the ability to estimate their true ability

Question 11

Is the use of heuristics irrational? Explain with example or examples

Answer 11

• Rationality= doesn’t have a clear definition
• Using heuristics is rational as there is no alternative
• Need them as the perfect decision doesn’t exist
• Need not just to solve problems but get around the limitations as cognitive beings

Question 12

Why is metacognitive ability important?

Answer 12

Metacognition allows us to realise when we are wrong, adjust and correct our beliefs, and know how much confidence to invest in our decisions

Question 13

What is a heuristic?

Answer 13

strategies,rules of thumb

- principle with broad application that is not intended to be strictly accurate or reliable for every situation

Question 14

Why do heuristics exist?

Answer 14

because the perfect decision does not exist

Question 15

Why is the perfect decision not possible ?

Answer 15

• information is limited = doesn’t matter how much you have is always limited
• information is ambigious = imperfect information
• time for decisions is limited
• cognitive resources are limited
  = not just to solve a practical problem, but to get around the limitations as cognitive beings

Question 16

What are good design features of a good heuristic?

Answer 16

• efficient
• quick
• robust= means it usually works
• mostly right= net overall benefit= overall come out ontop

Question 17

why do we use heuristics?

Answer 17

because we are adaptive= able to survive and thrive = can make mistakes but on average get a good

Question 18

What is the link between heuristics and biases?

Answer 18

Biases are systematic errors produced by heuristics, heuristics used can be inferred from biases measured
- heuristics produce semantic errors= biases
= because if you adopt a shortcut when making a choice- which you have to- you will get systematic errors – not just random errors, will be patterns in the errors you make
THEREFORE: by observing systematic errors= understand the strategies people are using to make choices

Question 19

why are biases not mere errors?

Answer 19

• just like visual illusions reveal the normal mechanisms of perception…
• heuristic errors reveal the normal mechanisms of reasoning
• not motivational biases (e.g. ego-protecting biases)
• can affect experts and laypeople alike

Question 20

What are the 3 heuristics responsible for a range of biases and errors?

Answer 20

1) representativness
2) availability
3) adjustment and anchoring

Question 21

What is the representativness heuristic ?

Answer 21

= to evaluate the probability of a single event according to how similar it is to what we imagine that event typically looks like

e. g. Linda example- feminist and banker or just banker - don’t think of the laws of probability- as description makes her sound like a feminists
- or deadly disease example = need base rate = Need to convert the frequencies into actual numbers

Question 22

What is the availability heuristic ?

Answer 22

= probabilities are assessed by the ease with which instances come to mind = memory or imagination
= aircrashes = try to estimate prop of crashes - people nervous about flying = actually flying= safest mode of transport

Question 23

What is the adjustment and anchoring heuristic ?

Answer 23

= When unclear how to calculate a probability or figure, people will begin with an initial estimate- which may be influenced by irrelevant information - then they will insufficiently adjust
= anchoring is starting point - then adjust
e.g. 1x2x3 etc
or 9x8x7 etc
= 2nd estimate higher no
= irrelevant anchor for 2nd
- people are influenced by irrelevant info e.g. phone number influence knowledge of history

Question 24

Are we rational creatures?

Answer 24

if we are smart/dumb/rational creatures depends on what we mean by rational
- we arent always right but we have strategies that help us make choices to give us a good enough answer
= being adaptive
= in evolutionary terms, able to survive and thrive - as can make mistakes but on average get a good enough answer

Question 25

Do heuristics exploit environmental structure? If yes/no why?

Answer 25

- can take shortcuts because of the way the environment is organised - If something is consistently associated with a good option, you can use it as a shortcut e. g. take advice from someone who is usually right, pick the special in a restaurant - this means that even if a heuristic gives wrong answer, it may exist for a good reason (even if that reason no longer applies)

Question 26

What is the 4th heuristic ?

Answer 26

FRAMING (susceptibility ) = options presented as either gains or losses = way that they are framed = Tversky and Kahneman 81 disease choice = when presented as a loss- people more likely to take a risk and gamble

Question 27

What is prospect theory?

Answer 27

mathematical description between the actual outcomes in any objectively via metric (e.g. money) you choose and the subjective value = maps objective outcome, to subjective value Losses> gains = losses go down further than the gains go up e.g. would dislike loosing 10pounds more than you would like gaining 10pounds

Question 28

How does bias affect our reasoning about the world?

Answer 28

- we make an important decision as to what info you acquire about the world - if you change what you seek= changes what you think - so bias affects our reasoning about the world THUS AFFECTS OUR BELIEFS - it matters how we acquire and accept/reject info

Question 29

What is confirmation bias?

Answer 29

= a preference to actively seek information that already confirms your existing beliefs- rather than contradict it = neglect to seek information to prove you wrong - Not whether you believe information when you encounter it, its about the active search for information

Question 30

What is Watsons selection task?

Answer 30

= E X 1 6 rule about which card you have to turn over to decide whether this statement is true or false - One way to help= if you make it less abstract, e.g.present it in an everyday situation- something will understand - When you explain the reasoning behind the right answer- people believe you= not an illusion

Question 31

What doeds the Watson selection task tell us?

Answer 31

That most errors are 2 errors 1) making the wrong choice = error about the answer 2) thinking you've made the right choice = commit to the wrong answer = error about thinking about the answer =metacognitive error

Question 32

What is metacognition ?

Answer 32

- Thinking about thinking

Question 33

What are metacognitive judgements ?

Answer 33

Perceptions of your own mental state - Two types: 1) confidence = i'm sure i'm right vs i'm mostly guessing 2) awareness =i don't know why i think that or i trust him because etc... = possible to know things without knowing how you know them

Question 34

What is the mere exposure effect ?

Answer 34

= common metacognitive error -People show a preference to stimuli that they have merely experienced before e.g. begin to like a person just because they are there a lot= don’t need rewards or positive interactions it’s just familiarity = stimuli seen before = preferred

Question 35

what supports the mere exposure effect?

Answer 35

Staffords logo recognition results

Question 36

What is mental contamination?

Answer 36

= metacognitive error = interested in the same thing as mere exposure task- contamination of judgment from info that should be irrelevant = in this case internal information that should be irrelevant = Capilano suspension bridge = marten van horenbeeck FOUND- people on swaying bridge were twice as likely to phone her up = EXPLANATION = = we have to make a judgement – get off bridge – how attracted are they to her? How do they make that judgement , don’t know anything about them so have to rely partly on internal report - Because on inducing bridge = heart races, palms sweat, cant think straight, so listen to pounding of heart- misattribute that to the person- thinking you find them more attractive

Question 37

What is the illusion of explanatory depth?

Answer 37

= metacognitive error Rozenblit, keil 02 - We over estimate our true understanding because we judge how well we understand something because we base it on our familiarity of it rather than actual ability to explain how it works FOUND: peoples initial rating of their understanding was well above their rating of understanding when confronted with the correct answer, people thought they understood when they did not & when presented w truth realise didn’t understand - any situation where you are familiar with material but do not test yourself – you are liable to be overestimating your ability

Question 38

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect ?

Answer 38

= metacognitive error = explains are two types of metacogntive errors = idea that people who are least skilled in a domain have a double deficit = not able to perform well = low skill- and not able to judge their own skill (the metacognitive error) - For top performers- their judgements are pretty accurate - People who were worst thought they were nearly as good as the people who are the best - = unskilled and unaware of it= the metacognitive error

Question 39

What is the link between heuristics and metacognition?

Answer 39

Metacognitive errors can result from basing judgment on wrong information - Mere exposure effect: preference based on fluency - IoED: understanding judged on familiarity - We use heuristics to understand ourselves, as well as the world - Metacognitive errors can result from heuristics