review sheet for final term 3 FPU EBP Flashcards
(62 cards)
Clinical Prediction Rules (CPRs)
Utility of CPRs in physical therapist practice
Therapist tool = make decision based on predictable things from history and exam:
Includes:
Making a diagnosis, prognosis, making patients to best interventions, predict response to treatment for an individual patient
- Ottawa Ankle Rules (OARs) - diagnosis
✓Should a patient with acute ankle pain be evaluated with an X-ray? - Rule for Shoulder Pain – prognosis
✓What is the risk of persistent symptoms in a patient with shoulder
pain? - Rule for Neck Pain - response to treatment
✓Which patients with neck pain will benefit from thoracic spine thrust
manipulation?
✓Note: this is different from effect of intervention-
EXAMPLES of ….
CLINCAL PREDICTION RULES (CPR’s)
- Combinations of clinical findings that are
✓systematically derived or developed
✓statistically tested - Stepwise logistic regression is often used to develop
the most economic model - Which combination of predictors (variables) will provide
most accurate diagnosis?
clinical prediction rule
3 steps for clinical prediction rule?
derive
validate
impact
derive
ID factors with predictive power
validate
evidence of reproducibility accuracy
Narrow or broad
impact
evidence that rule changes physician behavior and improves patient outcomes and/or reduces cost
Levels of CPRS
Level 1 best – impact analysis – influencing clinician behavior and improving outcomes
Level 2 Broad – varying setting – used with confidence
Level 3 narrow – similar setttings as study – used with caution
Level 4 – things that have predictive power – rules need more info to be applied
level 3 CPR
Level 3 narrow – similar setttings as study – used with caution
level 1 CPR (is the best level for CPR?)
Level 1 best CPR – impact analysis – influencing clinician behavior and improving outcomes
level 4 CPR ? worst ?
Level 4 – things that have predictive power – rules need more info to be applied
- Look for factors that potentially contribute to diagnosis
- Sn and Sp: good for ruling dx in or out?
✓ OARs: Sn = 95%; Sp = 50% (better for ruling out fx) - Analyzed using stepwise logistic regression to use the least number
of predictors that can most accurately predict the outcome. (Refer
to concept of ROC curve)
WHICH step of CPR process does this look like?
step 1 derive the model
- Confirm accuracy on different samples in different settings to show that the model is robust
Which step of CPR does this look like?
step 2 - validation portion of CPR
- Has the CPR been widely adopted, and has it improved diagnosis,
and has it been shown to reduce cost or risk?
✓ OARs have significantly reduced number of X-rays
Which step of the CPR does this look like ?
step 3 - the impact portion
1.Operationally define the SAMPLE?
Sample homogeneity? Inclusion/exclusion criteria (age, UL pain)
2.Subjects representative of the population ?
Address issue of SAMPLE bias
3.Include all relevant predictive factors in development process?
Compare to gold standard, all the factors?
4.Predictive factors operationally defined?
A clear definition of these variables is necessary to correctly identify
which subjects have these characteristics and to optimize the
accuracy of the prediction rule.
5.Large enough sample size to accommodate the predictive factors?
Statistical POWER
6.Outcomes of operationally defined?
A clear definition of outcomes is necessary to avoid misidentification
7.Outcomes masked?
Masking tester/assessor reduces an opportunity for BIAS
8.Collect info from ALL subjects?
Questions to ask when looking at _______ of articles about the _____ development
validity
derivation / rule
Assessment of study credibility – CPR derivation
Is it good, need to show in different samples and in different settings
Did you compare?
CPR vs gold standard, CPR vs outcomes
Were ALL subjects Measures by gold stanard, outcomes
Blinded?
Confirm findings with a new set of people ?
Validated for a population other than the one it was made for ?
These are questions for what process?
validating CPR
✓Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values,
positive/negative likelihood ratios (LR+, LR-)
diagnostic categories
✓Odds ratios, risk ratios, hazard ratios
prognostic categories
odds ratio
The OR is calculated by comparing the odds of an event happening in one group to the odds of it happening in another group
Interpreting the Odds Ratio:
An OR of 1 indicates that the odds are the same in both groups, meaning there’s no difference in the likelihood of the event.
An OR greater than 1 suggests that the event is more likely to occur in the first group compared to the second.
An OR less than 1 suggests that the event is less likely to occur in the first group compared to the second.
Risk ratio
When risks are computed in a study, the risk ratio is the measure that compares the Risk exposed to the Risk unexposed . The risk ratio is defined as the risk in the exposed cohort (the index group) divided by the risk in the unexposed cohort (the reference group). A risk ratio may vary from zero to infinity
hazard ratio (HR)
a measure in survival analysis that compares the probability of an event occurring in one group to the probability of the same event occurring in another group, over a specified period of time. It’s a ratio of the hazard rate in one group to the hazard rate in another. The hazard rate is the instantaneous probability of an event occurring at a given time, assuming that the event has not already occurred
likelihood ratios
Likelihood ratios are used for assessing the value of performing a diagnostic test
sensitivity and specificity
They use the sensitivity and specificity of the test to determine whether a test result usefully changes the probability that a condition exists