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Flashcards in Risk Management Deck (35):
1

Plan Risk Management

2.8.1 Planning Process Area, Risk Mgmt KA

The process of defining how to conduct risk management activities for a project

Inputs: Project Charter, Project Management Plan, Project Documents, EEF, OPA
Tools & Techniques: Expert Judgement, Data Analysis, Meetings
Outputs: Risk Management Plan

2

Risk Management Plan

2.8.1 Plan Risk Management Output

Component of the project management plan that describes how risk management activities will be structured and performed. Includes the following:
- Methodology
- Roles and responsibilities
- Budgeting
- Timing
- Risk Categories
- Definition of risk probability and impact
- Probability and impact matrix
- Revised stakeholders' tolerances
- Reporting formats
- Tracking

3

Identify Risks

2.8.2 Planning Process Area, Risk Mgmt KA

The process of determining which risks may affect the project and documenting their characteristics

Inputs: Project Management Plan, Project Documents, Agreements, Procurement Documentation, EEF, OPA
Tools & Techniques: Expert Judgement, Data Gathering, Data Analysis, Interpersonal and Team Skills, Prompt Lists, Meetings
Outputs: Risk Register, Risk Report, Project Document Updates

4

Delphi Technique

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

A way to reach a consensus of expters. Project risk experts participate in this technique anonymously. A facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas about the important project risks. The responses are summarized an recirculated to the expert for further comment. Consensus may be reached in a few rounds.

5

Root Cause Analysis

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

Specific technique used to identify a problem, discover the underlying causes that lead to it, and develop preventative action.

6

Documentation Review

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

Structured review of the project documentation may be performed, including plans, assumptions, previous project files, agreements and other information. The quality of the plans, as well as consistency between those plans and the project requirements and assumptions, may be indicators of risk.

7

Checklist Analysis

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

Risk identification checklists are developed based on historical information and knowledge that has been accumulated from previous similar projects and from other sources of information.

The lowest level of the RBS can also be used as a risk checklist.

8

Risk Breakdown Structure

2.8.1 Plan Risk Management Term

Major risk categories that are then broken down/decomposed into more detailed ones.

9

Assumptions Analysis

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

Explores the validity of the assumptions (set of hypotheses, scenarios that the project is conceived and based on) as they apply to the project. It identifies risks to the project from inaccuracy, instability, inconsistency, or incompleteness of assumptions

10

Diagramming Techniques

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

Cause and effect diagrams
System or process flow charts
Influence diagrams
Ishikawa/Fishbone diagrams

11

SWOT Analysis

2.8.2 Identify Risks TT

Technique that examines the project from each of the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) perspectives to increase the breadth of identified risks by including internally generated risks.

First identify strengths and weaknesses, following any opportunities that may arise from strengths and any threats arising from organizational weakness.

12

Risk Register

2.8.2 Identify Risks Output

Primary output of this process.
This is the document in which the results of risk analysis and risk response planning are recorded. It contains the outcomes of the other risk management processes as they are conducted, resulting in an increase in the level and type of information contained in the risk register over time.
- List of identified risks
- List of potential responses

13

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis

2.8.3 Planning Process Area, Risk Mgmt KA

Process of prioritizing risks for further anlysis or action by assessing and combining their probability of occurrence and impact.

Inputs: Project Management Plan, Project Documents, Agreements, Procurement Documentation, EEF, OPA
Tools & Techniques: Expert Judgement, Data Gathering, Data Analysis, Interpersonal and Team Skills, Risk Categorization, Data Representation, Meetings
Outputs: Project Document Updates (e.g. Risk Register)

14

Risk Probability and Impact Assessment

2.8.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis TT

Investigates the likelihood that each specific risk will occur. Risk impact assessment investigates the potential effect on a project objective such as schedule, cost, quality, or performance, including both negative effects for threats and positive effects for opportunities.

15

Probability and Impact Matrix

2.8.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis TT

Risk can be prioritized for further quantitative analysis and planning risk responses based on their risk rating. Ratings are assigned to risks based on their assessed probability and impact.

Each risk is rated on its probability of occurrence on an objective if it does occur. The organization should determine which combinations of probability and impact result in a classification of high risk.

16

Risk Data Quality Assessment

2.8.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis TT

Technique to evaluate the degree to which the data about risks is useful for risk management. It involved examining the degree to which the risk is understood an the accuracy, quality, reliability, and integrity of the data about the risk.

17

Risk Categorization

2.8.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis TT

Risks to the project can be categorized by sources of risk (e.g. using the RBS), the area of the project affected (e.g. using the WBS), or other useful categories (e.g. project phase) to determine the areas of the project most exposed to the effects of uncertainty.

18

Risk Urgency Assessment

2.8.3 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis TT

Risks requiring near-term responses may be considered more urgent to address. Indicators of priority may include probability of detecting the risk, time to affect a risk response, symptoms and warning signs, and the risk rating.

19

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis

2.8.4 Planning Process Area, Risk Mgmt KA

Process of numerically analyzing the effect of identified risks on overall project objectives

Inputs: Project Management Plan, Project Documents, Agreements, Procurement Documentation, EEF, OPA
Tools & Techniques: Expert Judgement, Data Gathering, Interpersonal and Team Skills, Representation of Uncertainty, Data Analysis
Outputs: Project Document Updates

types of tools:
data gathering and representation techniques
quantitative risk analysis and modeling techniques

20

Probability Distribution

2.8.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis TT

Continuous probability distributions, which are used extensively in modeling and simulation, represent the uncertainty in values such as durations of schedule activities and costs of project components.

Discrete distributions can be used to represent uncertain events, such as the outcome of a test or a possible scenario in a decision tree.

21

Sensitivity Analysis

2.8.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis TT

Helps to determine which risks have the most potential impact on the project.

Helps to understand how the variations in project's objectives correlate with variations in different uncertainties. Conversely, it examines the extent to which the uncertainty of each project element affects the objective being studied when all other uncertain elements are held at their baseline values.

22

Expected monetary value analysis

2.8.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis TT

EMV analysis is a statistical concept that calculates the average outcome when the future includes scenarios that may or may not happen.

Uses decision tree analysis

23

Modeling and Simulation

2.8.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis TT

Uses a model that translates the specified detailed uncertainties of the project into their potential impact on project objectives.

Simulations are typically performed using the Monte Carlo technique. In a simulation, the project model is computed many times with the input values (e.g. cost estimates or activity durations) chosen at random for each iteration from the probability distributions of these variables.

24

Expected Monetary Value

2.8.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis TT

Probability of risk x Impact
% x $

25

Plan Risk Responses

2.8.5 Planning Process Area, Risk Mgmt KA

Process of developing options and actions to enhance opportunities and to reduce threats to project objectives.

Inputs: Project Management Plan, Project Documents, Agreements, Procurement Documentation, EEF, OPA
Tools & Techniques: Expert Judgement, Data Gathering, Interpersonal and Team Skills, Strategies for Threats, Strategies for Opportunities, Contingent Response Strategies, Strategies for Overall Project Risks, Data Analysis, Decision Making
Outputs: Change Requests, Project Management Plan Updates, Project Document Updates

26

Strategies for Negative Risks or Threats

2.8.5 Plan Risk Responses TT

Avoid
Transfer
Mitigate
Accept

27

Strategies for Positive Risks or Opportunities

2.8.5 Plan Risk Responses TT

Exploit
Enhance
Share
Accept

28

Contingent Response Strategies

2.8.5 Plan Risk Responses TT

Some responses are designed for use only if certain events occur. For some risks, it is appropriate for the project team to make a response plan that will only be executed under certain predefined conditions, if it is believed that there will be sufficient warning to implement the plan.

Risk responses identified during this technique are often called contingency plans or fallback plans and include triggering events that set the plans in effect.

29

Implement Risk Responses

3.8.6 Executing Process Phase, Risk Mgmt KA

Implementing risk responses is the responsibilities of the risk owners
to ensure that agreed upon risk responses (as from the Plan Risk Response process) are executed as planned to
address overall project risk exposure
minimize individual project threats
maximize individual project opportunities

Inputs: Project Management Plan, Project Documents, OPA
Tools & Techniques: Expert Judgement, Interpersonal and Team Skills, Project Management Information System
Outputs: Change Requests, Project Document Updates

30

Control Risk

4.8.7 Monitoring and Controlling Process Phase, Risk Mgmt KA

Responsibilities include:
- to check if assumptions are still valid, procedures are being followed and any deviance
- to identify new risks and evaluate effectiveness of risk response plan
any need to adjust contingency and management reserves
- to re-assess the individual risk response strategies to see if they are effective

Inputs: Project Management Plan, Project Documents, Agreements, Work Performance Data, Work Performance Reports
Tools & Techniques: Data Analysis, Audits, Meetings
Outputs: Work Performance Information, Change Requests, Project Management Plan Updates, Project Document Updates, OPA Updates

31

Risk Audits

4.8.7 Control Risks TT

Risk audits examine and document the effectiveness of risk responses in dealing with identified risks and t heir root causes, as well as the effectiveness of the risk management process.

32

Risk Reassessment

4.8.7 Control Risks TT

Control risks often results in the identification of new risks, reassessment of current risks, and the closing of risks that are outdated. Risk reassessments should be regularly scheduled.

33

Variance and Trend Analysis

4.8.7 Control Risks TT

Compares the planned result to the actual result. Rends in the project's execution should be reviewed using performance information.

34

Technical Performance Measurement

4.8.7 Control Risks TT

Compares technical accomplishments during project execution to the schedule of technical achievement.

35

Reserve Analysis

4.8.7 Control Risks TT

Compares the amount of the contingency reserves reamaining to the amount of risk remaining at any time in the project to determine if the remaining reserve is adequate