S2 - L2 - Counterfactual reasoning Flashcards
(23 cards)
What is counterfactual reasoning?
The ability to reason about situations and events removed from, or contrary to, current reality
including the ability to think about the past and future, and situations with multiple possible outcomes
examples -
IF ONLY - THINKING
WHAT IF - THINKNING
about important or not important stuff eg what if i wore a green hat
what if i studied more
if only i studied this
the ability to consider events or possibilities that are physically and temporarily removed underpins complex cognitive skills (cognition and time)
What did Piaget note?
Children frequently make egocentric realist errors
What do 3 year olds find difficult w counterfactual reasoning?
Difficulty separating themselves from their own view of the world
seen in their poor ability to reason counterfactually
What does counterfactual reasoning require?
Us to separate ourselves from our current reality
mentally construct an alternative version of the
world in which one thing has changed
and then track how this single change would have affected the rest of the world
How does counterfactual reasoning develop?
Separating ourselves from reality - the first step towards counterfactual thinking is separating ourselves from the world around us
In children this is seen from around 18 months (playing w toys like tea party)
Piaget noted that pretence depends on the ability to represent absent objects and situations
EG
PRETENCE -
Pretending is not the same as acting in error - if im scared bc i thought i saw a spider (mistakenly), im not pretending i saw a spider
Creating an imaginary world (object or situation even) can be done without any reference to current reality
pretending is not counterfactual thinking
counterfactual thinking involves considering specific ways that the current reality could be different
pretending - imagine im a tiger in the jungle
vs
what if i hadnt spilled my juice on mums laptop
What is Pretence?
We act as if something is the case, while also correctly perceiving the current reality
eg
Pretending is not the same as acting in erorr - if im scared bc i thought i saw a spider (mistakenly), im not pretending i saw a spider
When does counterfactual thinking emerge?
Evidence for counterfactual thinking emerges during preschool years
The age at which counterfactual thinking emerges depends on how you define it
children become increasingly able to think about different aspects of counterfactuals
What is 1 way of assessing the ability to think counterfactually in children?
tell children stories and get them to re-imagine the stories with one thing changed
eg in one test
3 year olds 75% correct
4 year olds 84%
but there is a problem w that
later work suggests children may be succeeding on this task without doing counterfactual thinking
When can children use real-world knowledge to answer simple counterfactual thinking?
By 3 years
When can children use basic conditional reasoning to answer counterfactual questions by?
By 6 years
When can children reason in a more adult-like counterfactual way?
From around 12 years
why is counterfactual thinking difficult?
bc it is often used to review past events that might not have gone as planned (Time)
What is conditional reasoning?
give an answer contrary to current reality
yet 3 year olds appear well able to respond correctly when asked about a future event
why does thinking about the future seem to be easier than thinking about the past?
Shown by mouse game
What is the Mouse Game?
children asked to place cotton wool to ensure a mouse landed safely (they were shown a slide w 2 outlets)
after mouse slid down, children were asked 2 questions ab the future
“what if next time he goes the other way?” - children need to think ab a single event possibility (if mouse went left child imagines mouse going right)
“can u put out cotton wool?” (to make sure th mouse lands safely next time - requires children to think ab two possibilities (both mouse going left and right)
How many possibilities do children find it easiest to think about?
A single possibility in the future
they find it harder to think about multiple possibilities in the future
Children’s difficulties arise not from the past or future per se, but from whether they are required to consider multiple possibilities
Why are there processing demands on counterfactual thinking?
CF makes heavy demands on our cognitive systems (inhibitory control, working memory, linguistic demands)
children’s ability to think about temporal alternatives is also affected by processing demands
the further along the cognitive chain (further back events were in the past) greater the cognitive demand
^varying length of causal chain too
When can children solve basic informational counterfactual tasks?
Around 5 years
this isnt adult-like performance: adults spontaneously reason counterfactually, particularly when things have gone wrong
counterfactual reasoning forms the basis of complex emotions like regret and relief
why is regret and relief more difficult than understanding happiness or sadness?
requires consideration of not just a particular situation but also how that situation compares to other possible alternatives
those feelings require you to compare a particular outcome in relation to an alternative
In the card game where people are asked to choose 1 out of 2 cards, what did 5 year olds judge correctly?
whether ps would be happy or sad if a particular outcome occurred
however showed no understanding of how people would feel if they found out a better or worse alternative could have been chosen
in the card game, what did 7 year olds correctly judge?
that a person would feel worse if they learned a better alternative had been available
and that theyd feel better if they learned that a worse alternative had been available
When do adults feel worse?
A negative outcome arises through something they chose to do, rather than something they chose not to do
a negative outcome arises following an unusual choice of action, rather than a habitual or unusual choice of action
Why is there a slight lag between children experiencing counterfactual emotions and attributing them to others?
idk man
what can adults do with counterfactual thinking?
anticipate counterfactual emotions
evidence on this is limited, but this ability seems to be present by around 12 years
