Sales forecasting Flashcards
(30 cards)
How do businesses anticipate the future
They use sales forecasting techniques
What is sales forecasting
Methods to predict future demand by anticipating what consumes will do in given circumstances
If a business has used sales forecasting to predict sales what else can it predict
HRM needs, finance needs, estimate quantity and cost of raw materials and determine production levels
What is extrapolation
Using past experience or past business data to forecast sales
What are the 2 categories that sales forecasting fall into
Quantitative and qualitative techniques
Name 2 quantitative techniques of sales forecasting
Time series analysis
Use of market research data
Name 2 qualititive sales forecasting techniques
Delphi technique
Brainstorming
Intuition
Expert opinion
When are quantitative methods of sales forecasting used
When historical date is available
What is time series analysis
It uses evidence from past sales records to predict future sales patterns
What are the methods of time series analysis
1 seasonal analysis - measured on a monthly or weekly basis to examine seasonal demand eg sales of ice cream lighter on cold days
2 trend analysis - focus on long term date, collected over a number of years to determine a general trend of sales
3 cycle analysis - long term figures used but to examine the relationship between demand level and economic activity
4 random factor analysis - used to attempt to explain unusual or extreme sales figures
What is trend analysis and extrapolation
1 Extrapolation involves taking the past and extending it into the future - if sales have grown steadily in the past at around 5% a year it may be reasonable to extrapolate from this that sales will continue to grow by 5% a year
2 we can also use probability to predict the future. If sales show a general trend of increase but fluctuated we can allow for this.
On an extrapolated sales graph how are future sales usually displayed
As a dotted line
What are moving averages
Used to identify trends from past sales figures which even out major fluctuations
It smooths out seasonal variations if plotted on a graph and helps to plot predicted trends
How is a 3 month moving average calculated
Take 3 adjacent figures eg fis for Jan Feb March and add them and divide by 3 - this becomes the moving average fig for feb as it is mid point for the 3 months
What is a correlation
It measures the relationship between to variables eg is there a link between a businesses advertising expenditure and amount of sales achieved
There can be a strong correlation, a non existing correlation or a negative correlation
What is a strong correlation
A non existent correlation and a negative correlation
1 strong - as one variable increases so does the other
2 non existent correlation - no pattern
3a negative correlation - as one variable increases the other decreases
What is the usefulness of time series analysis for a business
1 help the business plan ahead
2 helps financial planning including cash flow management
3 production planning to determine the right levels of supplies are ordered and the production process is efficient to meet either higher levels or lower levels of production
4 human resource planing, getting the right number and type of staff in the jobs that are needed. This may mean recruiting, retaining or making staff redundant
5 useful in identifying seasonal variations
6 reduce the amount of unexpected surprises that could affect business performance
what are the pitfalls of series analysis
1 it is not always easy to predict the future
2 historical data is not always a good indication of what will happen in the future
3 even complicated sales forecasting methods can get it wrong and non are 100% accurate all of the time
4 it is less useful for long term forecasts
List market research data that can be used in sales forecasts
1 survey of consumer intentions
2 direct sales information
Test marketing
How do surveys and consumer intentions help with predictions
By asking people directly what they intend to do in the future - some large market research companies ask the questions and sell the feedback
How does direct sales information help with predictions
Sales teams interact closely with customers, the sales staff can notice developing trends and have the experience to spot market changes and shifts in customer attitudes. Management then request this information in the form of statistical predictions for future sales
What is test marketing and how does it help with predictions
It involves testing consumer response to a product before its full release. A product can be released in a geographical area to a small section of a target market. I the response is negative then changes can be made before full release
When are qualitative methods of sales forecasting used
When historical data is not available to carry out quantitive methods and they will instead use opinion to predict and are subjective
What is the Delphi method
A forecasting technique developed in the 50s based on researching the views of an expert panal