Session 7 - Fixed Income (I) Flashcards

(71 cards)

1
Q

Inflation protection on Inflation-linked bond

A
  • both principal and coupons are protected from inflation
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2
Q

Inflation protection on Floating-coupon bonds

A
  • only coupons are protected from inflation
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3
Q

Inflation protection on Fixed-coupon bonds

A
  • principal and coupons are not protected from inflation
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4
Q

Cash flow matching

A
  • have an asset that matures with the same amount and at the time the liability is due
  • no need for reinvestment
  • difficult to do/find in real life
  • defaults & optionality (explicit & implicit) will create mismatches
  • only rebalance (not required) to lower costs
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5
Q

Duration Matching

A
  • match the duration AND the present value of the asset and liabilities so they both fluctuate by the same amount with interest rate changes
  • protects only against parallel shifts in the yield curve
  • only immunized for a period of time as yields and market conditions change, need to be rebalanced
  • defaults & credit downgrades cause issues
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6
Q

Contingent immunization

A
  • hybrid of immunization and active management
  • MVA – MVL = surplus
  • the PM can pursue active investment strategies, as if operating under a total return mandate, as long as the surplus is above a designated threshold
  • if performance is poor & surplus evaporates, mandate reverts
    to a purely passive strategy
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7
Q

Role of Fixed Income

A
  • diversification benefits - low correlation with equities
    • generally less volatile than any other major asset classes
  • benefits of regular cash flows - better planning to meet future liabilities
  • inflation hedging potential
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8
Q

Liability-Based Mandates

A
  • managed to match or cover expected liability payments with future projected cash inflows (structured mandates, asset/liability management - ALM, liability-driven investments - LDI)
  • banks, pensions, insurance
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9
Q

4 types of Liability-Based Mandates

A
  1. Cash-flow matching
  2. Duration Matching
  3. Contingent immunization
  4. Horizon matching
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10
Q

Horizon matching

A
  • combines cash-flow & duration matching
    • ST liabilities are covered by CF matching while LT
  • liabilities are covered by duration matching
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11
Q

3 Types of Total Return Mandates

A
  1. Pure indexing
  2. Enhanced indexing
  3. Active Management
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12
Q

Pure indexing

A
  • attempts to replicate a bond index as closely as possible (target RA & 𝝈𝑹𝑨 are both zero)
  • rebalance the same as the index
  • full replication approach ⇒ produce a portfolio that is a perfect match to the index (very difficult & costly)
    • many issues are illiquid/infrequently traded
  • sampling approach ⇒ select a sample of issues while matching risk factor exposures of the benchmark (duration, credit/sector/call/prepayment risk)
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13
Q

Enhanced Indexing

A

– attempts to match the benchmark’s Primary risk factors and generate modest outperformance
- allows for minor risk factor mismatches (target 𝝈𝑹𝑨 < 50 bps/yr.)

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14
Q

Active Management

A

– allows for larger risk factor mismatches relative to the benchmark, most notably duration
- highest portfolio turnover, highest fees

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15
Q

Bond Market Specific Liquidity

A
  • most bonds have less active secondary markets (vs. equities) (many do not trade on a given day)
  • bonds are very heterogeneous
  • bond markets are typically OTC dealer markets (search cost, price discovery)
  • liquidity is highest right after issuance (supply not yet bought up by buy-and-hold investors)
  • liquidity affects bond yields – illiquidity premiums
    • compensate for exit costs prior to maturity
    • premium depends on the issuer, issue size, date of maturity
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16
Q

Liquidity among Bond Market Subsectors

A
  • subsectors can be categorized by issuer type, credit quality, issue size, maturity
  • issuers: - sovereign government bonds, non-sovereign gov’t. bonds, gov’t. related bonds, corporate bonds (a.k.a. credits) - securitized bonds
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17
Q

Sovereigns vs. Corporates Bond Market Subsectors

A
  • Sovereigns/ – typically more liquid, larger issuance size, use as benchmark bonds, acceptance as collateral in the repo market, well-recognized issuers
    • high credit quality issuers more liquid than lower credit quality issuers
  • Corporates/ many more issuers, smaller issue size, a wide range of credit quality (IG → HY)
    • low credit quality issues, may be difficult to even find a dealer with inventory (or even willing to take them into inventory)
  • small issues typically excluded from bond indexes with minimum issue size requirements
  • liquidity varies across other dimensions (issue size, maturity)
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18
Q

Effects of Liquidity on Fixed-Income Port. Mgmt./

A

1) Pricing – many issues may have stale prices or prices that are often estimated (recent transaction prices may not be valid) so matrix pricing can be used
2) Portfolio Construction
- trade-off between yield & liquidity
- buy-and-hold investor will prefer illiquid bonds for the higher yield (illiquidity premium)(longer maturities, small issues, private placements)
- illiquid bonds will also have wider bid-ask spreads (dealer risk – likely to remain in inventory longer)
3) Alternatives to Direct Investment in Bonds
- fixed-income derivatives are often more liquid than
their underlying bonds (futures, options on futures, interest rate swaps, credit default swaps)
- fixed-income ETFs & mutual funds

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19
Q

Yield Income

A

coupon payments + reinvestment income (current yield)

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20
Q

Rolldown Yield

A

⇒ change in price by the passage of time (pulled to par)
– amortization of premium/discount
- assumes an unchanging yield curve

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21
Q

Rolling yield

A

Yield income + Rolldown Return

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22
Q

E(credit losses)

A

= PD × LGD (prob. of def. × loss given def.)

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23
Q

Leverage formula

A

[𝒓𝑰𝑽𝑬 + 𝑽𝑩(𝒓𝑰 − 𝒓𝑩)] / 𝑽𝑬

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24
Q

Methods of Leverage

A

1) Futures Contract
2) Swap Agreements
3) Structured Financial Instruments - inverse floaters
4) Repurchase Agreements
5) Securities lending

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25
Repurchase Agreements
- a sale & a repurchase (basically a collateralized loan) - difference between the sale & repurchase price called the repo rate (= interest) - typically overnight → few days (maybe longer) - repo may be: -- cash-driven – borrow cash to buy assets -- security-driven – borrow particular securities - protection against default provided by collateral high quality → 97% - 99% borrowing capacity – called the ‘haircut’ - lower quality/higher volatility → lower capacity
26
Securities lending
– like repos, except that cash is required as collateral (or high-quality bonds) - when bonds are used as collateral, income earned flows back to borrower Rebate rate = coupon – lending rate – if the borrowed securities are difficult to borrow, the lending rate may be greater than the coupon income of collateral - typically open-ended agreements
27
Risks of Leverage
– magnified losses, higher risk, forced liquidations
28
Equity Duration Formula
(𝑫𝑨𝑨 − 𝑫𝑳𝑳) / E
29
Difference between Type 2 and Type 3 Liabilities
Type 2 - Cash Flow is known, timing not known (life insurance payout) Type 3 - Cash Flow unknown, timing is known (floating rate annuity payout)
30
Immunization - Single Liability
- construct a portfolio that minimizes the variance in the realized rate of return - matching a future liability with an equal term zero-coupon bond settles it (no risk ~ cash flow matching) - if we must deal with bonds with incoming cash flows, we have price and Re-investment Risk exposure 1. set duration of portfolio = investment horizon (minimum condition) (or Liability duration) 2. initial PV of portfolio CFs ≥ PV of future liability 3. Portfolio Convexity is minimized
31
For something to be immunized means...
- price risk & reinvestment risk are offset which is achieved through mgmt. of duration - immunization is essentially an interest rate hedging strategy - market yield will fluctuate over the investment horizon - portfolio duration will change as both market yields change and time passes - as time passes, the portfolio must be rebalanced so that its duration (not avg) is readjusted to the duration of the liability - essentially a ‘zero-replication’ strategy i. e. immunizing with coupon paying bonds entails continuously matching the portfolio MacDur with the MacDur of a zero over time as the yield curve shifts
32
Zero-Coupon Bond Immunization Strategy
- no risk immunization strategy - Zero variance in ROR - variance results from the volatility of future interest rates
33
Bullet portfolio Immunization Strategy
– portfolio CFs concentrated around the horizon date - low variance in ROR - variance results from the volatility of future interest rates
34
Barbell Portfolio Immunization Strategy
– portfolio’s CFs dispersed - High variance in ROR - variance results from the volatility of future interest rates
35
Structural Risk
– risk that yield curve twists and non-parallel shifts cause MacDurp ≠ MacDurz (or L) - reduced by minimizing the dispersion of the bond positions - min. dispersion is the same as min. Convexity
36
Cash Flow Matching for Multiple Liabilities
- can improve the company’s credit rating (dedicated assets reduce liability risk) - may be able to use ‘accounting defeasance’ – ability to remove both the asset & liability from the B.S. - cash-in-advance constraint ⇒ bonds are not sold to meet obligations, they mature ⇒ maturity timing mismatches mean funds must be available before each liability pmt. - may lead to large cash holdings
37
Duration Matching for Multiple Liabilities
1) PVassets ≥ PVliabilities 2) Dollar Duration of portfolio = DDL 3) distribution of individual portfolio assets must have a wider range than the distribution of the liabilities (higher dispersion, ∴ higher convexity) i.e. must have an asset with ModDur ≤ shortest-duration liability & an asset with ModDur ≥ longest-duration liability but: wider the range, more reinvestment risk - DDp will drift from DDL – twists & non-parallel shifts in the yield curve - must balance transaction costs against duration drift
38
Why for equal durations, a more convex portfolio outperforms a less convex portfolio
higher gains if yields fall, lower losses if yields rise
39
Derivatives Overlay for Multiple Liabilities
- long an interest rate futures contract increases a portfolio’s sensitivity to interest rates (increase duration) - short → decreases sensitivity (decrease duration) - traded on both short-term (T-Bills, Eurodollars) and long-term (Treasury Notes, Bonds) - duration of the futures contract is the duration of the CTD
40
CTD – cheapest-to-deliver
→ the seller determines which actual bond to deliver
41
Conversion Factor
- based on the price a deliverable bond would sell for at the beginning of the delivery month if it were to yield 6%
42
Number of future contracts needed to hedge (Nf) Formula
𝑵𝒇 = 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑳 − 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑨/ 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑭 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑨 + 𝑵𝒇𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑭 = 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑳 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑳 = 𝑫𝑫𝑳 ×. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟏
43
𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑭 Formula
𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑪𝑻𝑫/𝑪𝑭𝑪𝑻𝑫 | ≈ (𝑫𝑪𝑻𝑫𝑽𝑪𝑻𝑫 ×. 𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟏) / 𝑪𝑭𝑪𝑻𝑫
44
Interest Rate Swaps
1. pay floating, receive fixed ~ long a fixed + short a - adding a swap (pay fl., rec. fx.) increases BPVA ~ BPVfix 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒔𝒘𝒂𝒑 = 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒊𝒙 − 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒕 − 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒊𝒙 mainly determines 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒔𝒘𝒂𝒑 since 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒕 is typically small 2. pay fixed, receive floating ~ long a floating + short a fixed - adding a swap (pay fx., rec. fl.) decreases BPVA ~ BPVfix 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒔𝒘𝒂𝒑 = 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒍𝒐𝒂𝒕 − 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝒇𝒊𝒙
45
Interest Rate Options/Swaption
a) receiver swaption pay fl.rate, receive fixed - pay premium (known cost) -exercise if fixed swap rate is below exercise rate b) payer swaption– pay fx. - receive fl. - receive a premium ( not known) - when the receiver and payer combined = swaption collar
46
Interest rate anticipation strategies - Rates expected to decrease
- receive fixed, enter the receiver swaption - increase duration - buy future contracts - long interest rate options - if BPVA > BPVL – do nothing
47
Interest rate anticipation strategies - Rates expected to increase
- pay fixed, enter the payer swaption - decrease duration - short future contracts - short interest rate options - if BPVA < BPVL – do nothing
48
Hedge Ratio
– the extent of interest rate risk management - 0% – no hedging 100% – full hedging - partial hedge – between 0% - 100% 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑨 × 𝚫𝒚𝒊𝒆𝒍𝒅𝒔𝑨 + 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑯 × 𝚫𝒚𝒊𝒆𝒍𝒅𝒔𝑯 ≈ 𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑳 × 𝚫𝒚𝒊𝒆𝒍𝒅𝒔𝑳
49
Model Risk
– whenever assumptions are made about future events & approximations are used to measure key parameters (BPVA, BPVL)
50
Measurement error
– approximating portfolio duration using the weighted average of the individual durations of the component bonds instead of the cash flow yield (BPVA) - also, BPVH ⇒ an approximation is used (𝑩𝑷𝑽𝑪𝑻𝑫/𝑪𝑭)
51
The implicit assumption that Δyields are equal for A, H & L
- source of risk if assets, derivatives and liabilities are positioned at varying points along the curve and at varying spreads (𝜟yield for A & L refer to various classes of corporate bonds) L = IG, A may have HY
52
Spread risk
– underlying of BPVH are Treasuries, BPVL are typically corporate obligations (𝝆HL < 1) (IG corporate yields less volatile than Treasuries) - less volatility in the corporate/swap spread than the corporate/Treasury spread
53
Counterparty credit risk
when not collateralized
54
Collateralization risk
– the risk that available collateral becomes exhausted
55
Benchmarking to a Bond Index
- no specific rate of return (ROR) is guaranteed - objective: relative performance (match/exceed ROR of the benchmark) - known as investing on a benchmark relative basis • lower fees, greater diversification, avoiding the downside risk of active mgmt.
56
Challenges of Benchmarking in the Bond Market
1) fixed income markets are much larger & broader - # of outstanding securities much larger - much more heterogeneous 2) fixed income is a dealer market - most bonds have a less active secondary market - many do not trade on a given day - stale prices or prices that are estimated using matrix pricing (creates variation between portfolios and the index) 3) limited size of many issues – often completely owned by buy-and-hold investors 4) index composition tends to change frequently – maturities, callability, new issues - typically recreated monthly ⇒ as composition changes, risk profiles may change
57
6 Risk Factors (primary)
1/ portfolio modified adjusted duration – EffDur. - option-adjusted duration, convexity 2/ key rate duration - captures the effect of shifts at key points on the yield curve - matching key rate Dur. instead of only EffDur. will reduce tracking risk 3/ sector and quality percent - match the %’ age weight in the various sectors & qualities of the index (further away, greater the tracking risk) 4/ sector and quality spread duration - match the sector & quality duration exposure 5/ sector/coupon/maturity cell weights – match the optionality exposure of sectors 6/ issuer exposure – match the issuer-event risk
58
Passive Approach
- assumes bond market expectations are correct, so set the portfolio’s risk profile identical to the benchmark index’s risk profile
59
Strategies of Passive Approach
``` 1/ pure bond indexing (full replication) 2/ enhanced indexing (sampling) 3/ fixed-income mutual funds 4/ ETFs - greater liquidity vs. MF 5/ Total return swap (OTC) - exchange of CFs between 2 parties ```
60
Pure bond indexing (full replication) Strategy
- produce a portfolio that is a perfect match to the index (own all the bonds in the same %’age as the index) - very difficult & costly (many issues are illiquid/infrequently traded, esp. non-Treasuries) - full replication rarely attempted in fixed-income
61
Enhanced indexing (sampling)
– attempt to match the Primary risk factors and reach a higher return versus full replication - done by stratified sampling - reduces construction & maintenance costs - larger tracking error vs. full replication
62
Enhanced indexing strategies
``` 1/ lower cost enhancements 2/ issue selection enhancements 3/ yield curve enhancements 4/ sector/quality enhancements 5/ call exposure enhancements ```
63
Fixed-income mutual funds/
- lower investment requirement without sacrificing diversification - redemption at NAV rather than a need to sell positions
64
Total return swap (OTC)
- smaller initial outlay - lower swap bid-ask spreads - total return receiver pays LIBOR + spread and depreciation of the index - total return payer pays Index CFs+ Appreciation
65
Qualities of an index:
1) Unambiguous – the identities & weights of the benchmark components are clearly defined (clear, transparent rules for security inclusion and weighting) 2) Investable 3) Measurable – benchmark returns are readily calculable on a reasonably frequent basis - bond index risk characteristics will reflect bond issuers preferences - cap-weighted bond indices give more weight to issuers that borrow the most (the bums) - maybe more likely to be downgraded in the future and experience lower returns
66
Laddered Bond Portfolios
- better protection from shifts/twists in the yield curve - cash flows diversified across time - balances cash flow reinvestment & market price risk - similar to dollar-cost averaging - bonds mature each year and are reinvested at the longer end of the ladder (portfolio duration is constant) - liquidity – always a bond that is close to redemption – low duration, stable price
67
Lower cost enhancements (one of Enhanced indexing strategy)
- tight controls on trading costs and management fees (limit # of securities chosen)
68
Issue selection enhancements (one of Enhanced indexing strategy)
- identify & select undervalued securities, select ‘possible credit upgrade’ issues, avoid ‘possible credit downgrade’ issues
69
Yield curve enhancements (one of Enhanced indexing strategy)
- overweight the undervalued areas of the curve, underweight the overvalued areas
70
Sector/quality enhancements (one of Enhanced indexing strategy)
- periodic over/underweighting of sectors/qualities across the business cycle e. g. overweight Treasuries when spreads are expected to widen
71
Call exposure enhancements (one of Enhanced indexing strategy)
- underweight callable bonds if rates are expected to drop e. g./ a drop in rates may cause a callable bond to shift from being priced on a YTM basis to a yield-to-call basis (negative convexity)