Social factors and voter behaviour

Question 1

Question

Answer 1

Evaluate the view that social factors are the most significant in determining voter behaviour.

Question 2

Factors

Answer 2

• Social factors
• Party image
• Valence issues

Question 3

Judgement

Answer 3

Social factors are not the most significant in determining voter behaviour.

Question 4

Weaker argument social factors

Answer 4

→ Ethnicity:
- In 2015 Labour had a lead of 42% over the Tories among Black voters and 18% lead among South Asian voters.
- In 2019 64% of ethnic minority voters backed Labour.
→ Age:
- 2019 (YouGov): In 18–24s 56% vote Labour and 21% Conservative. In 65+s 62% voted Conservative and 18% Labour.
- 2017: In 18–24s 67% voted Labour and 18% Conservative. In the over 65s 59% voted Conservative and 23% Labour.
→ Region: (2017)
- In London Labour won 54 out of 73 seats.
- North East: Labour 55%, Conservatives 34%
- South East: Conservatives 54%, Labour 31%

Question 5

Stronger argument social factors

Answer 5

→ Ethnicity - 2024 GE:
- Labour: 46% support in 2024, 64% in 2019.
- Conservatives: Support among increased to 17%.
- British Indian Voters - Labour received 40% support, while the Conservatives had 32%, ethnicity is no longer a clear factor.
→ Class:
- YouGov 2017: ABC1, 44% Conservative, 40% Labour. C2DE - 44% Labour, 41% Conservative.
- 2019: Many C2DE voters in Northern England voted Conservative, breaking with tradition - known as the “Red Wall” collapse. C2DE: 48% Conservative, 33% Labour.
→ Gender - the gender divide has become smaller:
- 2024: Labour - men (34%) and women (35%). Conservative - women (26%) and men (23%).
- 2019: Men - 46% Conservative, 31% Labour. Women - 43% Conservative, 35% Labour.

Question 6

Weaker argument party image

Answer 6

→ In 1992 the ‘grey’ incumbent John Major able to win support through speeches.
→ The leadership of Nick Clegg boosted the image of the Liberal Democrats (after the “Cleggmania” TV debate) but the Lib Dems did not win any more seats in 2010 than they had done in the previous election.
→ In 2017 Corbyn was able to gain much of the vote preventing May from gaining a majority in the Commons - his image was still poor and he wasn’t a good leader.

Question 7

Weaker argument valence issues

Answer 7

→ 2019 General Election - YouGov post-election poll 40% of voters made their choice based on party loyalty.
→ 2019: YouGov Polling showed that “Who is the better leader?” was a more significant issue for voters than the specific policies on healthcare or education.
→ 2017: Studies from the British Election Study found many voters struggle to understand political issues - voters admitted they had limited knowledge of Brexit policies yet they still voted based on ideological alignment.

Question 8

Valence issues stronger argument

Answer 8

→2017: Brexit was the most important issue:
- 56% of those who voted Leave in 2016 backed the Conservatives in 2017.
- Remainers (56% of population) tended to back Labour.
→ 2019: election was framed around Brexit. Tories, promised to “Get Brexit Done” and implement the EU Withdrawal Agreement.
→ 2019: YouGov exit poll -Those who ranked Brexit as the most important issue, 74% voted Conservative, and 23% voted Labour.
→ 2019: Ipsos Mori Poll - The economy (31%) and Brexit (31%) were the top issues for voters.
→ 2024: In a YouGov Poll participants were asked: “Which of the following will be the most important issues in deciding who you will vote for at the coming election?”. The results are as follows:
* Cost of living - 45%
* Health - 34%
* The economy - 32%