Class and voter behaviour

Question 1

Question

Answer 1

Evaluate the view that class is no longer an important factor in determining UK voter behaviour.

Question 2

Factors

Answer 2

• Class
• Ethnicity
• Age

Question 3

Judgement

Answer 3

Agree with the statement. Other factors have become more important.

Question 4

Weaker argument class

Answer 4

→ Thatcher expanded Tory support among the working class, especially C2s, through policies like “Right to Buy”.
→ In the 1979 election 41% of C2 voters backed the Conservatives.
→ 1950 election: Labour won over 60% of working-class votes, while the Conservatives won 80% of the middle-class vote.
→ In 2010, Conservatives won 39% of AB voters, 31% of DE voters whilst Labour won 40% of DE voters.

Question 5

Stronger argument class

Answer 5

→ The 2019 General Election:
Tory support by class:
○ 48% of C2 voters backed the Tories.
○ 47% of DE voters voted Tory.
Labour support by class:
○ Only won 33% of C2s
○ 34% of DEs.
→ The Brexit factor: Brexit realigned voting behaviour more than class, with many working-class Leave voters shifting to the Conservatives.
→ 1997: New Labour won a landslide by appealing to middle-class voters - breaking with Clause IV.
→ 2024: the Conservatives were unable to hold on to AB voters only gaining 27% from them compared to Labour’s 36%.

Question 6

Weaker argument age

Answer 6

→ The Blair years: In the 1997, 2001, and 2005 GEs, Labour won across all age groups, including older voters who traditionally leaned Conservative.
→ In 1997, 40% of over-65s voted Labour, age was not a strong predictor at the time.
→ In 2005, the Conservatives failed to win a majority of over-65s.
→ Research published in the Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties (2024) using BES data from 2016 and 2019 found that rural voters in England are significantly more economically right-wing - even the younger voters.

Question 7

Stronger argument age

Answer 7

→ The Blair years broke traditions in both age and class - suggesting one factor is not more important.

→ 2019 GE:
○ 18-24 year olds: 56% Labour, 21% Conservative.
○ 70+ year olds: 67% Conservative, 14% Labour.
→ 2024 GE
○ Mass dislike of the Tories because of scandals.
○ Able to hold on the 70+ voters with 46% voting Tory
○ 33% of 60-69 voted Tory.

→ Brexit factor effected class but didn’t effect age as much;
○ 18-24 year olds: 73% Remain, 27% Leave.
○ 65+ year olds: 60% Leave, 40% Remain. This was then reflected in the 2019 election.

Question 8

Weaker argument ethnicity

Answer 8

→ The 2019 British Election Study (BES) - 20% of ethnic minorities voted Conservative (in 2019 GE).
→The 2019 BES - Indian voters were most likely ethnic group to vote Tory - 40% supported the party. This suggests that economic factors, and business interests play a role rather than ethnicity alone.
→ Region more important: ethnic minority voters in London tend to vote Labour, but in areas like the Midlands, the Conservative share of the ethnic minority vote has grown significantly.

Question 9

Stronger argument ethnicity

Answer 9

→ 2019: 64% - backed Labour, compared to just 20% for the Conservative.
→ The Conservatives have struggled to appeal to minority groups and distance themselves from their past such as associations with policies like Enoch Powell’s “Rivers of Blood” speech (1968).
→ 2010: Labour retained 68% of the ethnic minority vote, despite an overall electoral loss.
→ Research shows that ethnic minority voters are less likely to vote Conservative, even when they have high incomes and middle-class status; this shows how ethnicity outweighs class as a factor. Only 30% of Asian high-income earners and 16% of Black high-income earners voted Conservative. (high income = £40,000+/year).
→ In the 2024 General Election Labour won 58% of the minority vote compared to the Conservatives’ 14%.