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Super Forecasting > The Leader’s Dilemma > Flashcards

The Leader’s Dilemma Flashcards

(75 cards)

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1
Q

What is the primary focus of the leader’s dilemma in superforecasting?

A

The tension between making decisions based on intuition versus relying on data and forecasts.

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2
Q

True or False: Leaders should always trust their gut feelings when making decisions.

A

False

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3
Q

Fill in the blank: The leader’s dilemma often involves balancing ______ and ______.

A

intuition, data

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4
Q

What is a common mistake leaders make according to the leader’s dilemma?

A

Overconfidence in their own judgment.

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5
Q

Multiple Choice: What is emphasized as a key quality of effective leaders in superforecasting?

A

Humility

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6
Q

What is the role of feedback in the leader’s dilemma?

A

Feedback helps leaders adjust their forecasts and improve decision-making.

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7
Q

True or False: Superforecasters believe that predictions should be static once made.

A

False

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8
Q

Short Answer: What is one method leaders can use to improve their forecasting accuracy?

A

Engaging with diverse perspectives and data.

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9
Q

Fill in the blank: Leaders should embrace ______ to counteract biases in decision-making.

A

critical thinking

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10
Q

Multiple Choice: Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of superforecasters?

A

Arrogance

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11
Q

What is the significance of probabilistic thinking in the leader’s dilemma?

A

It allows leaders to assess risks and uncertainties more effectively.

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12
Q

True or False: Superforecasters are generally more accurate than traditional forecasters.

A

True

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13
Q

Short Answer: Why is it important for leaders to update their forecasts?

A

To reflect new information and changing circumstances.

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14
Q

Fill in the blank: The leader’s dilemma highlights the importance of ______ in decision-making processes.

A

flexibility

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15
Q

Multiple Choice: What is one way leaders can mitigate the leader’s dilemma?

A

Incorporating structured analytic techniques

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16
Q

What does ‘overconfidence bias’ refer to in the context of the leader’s dilemma?

A

The tendency to overestimate one’s knowledge or predictive abilities.

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17
Q

True or False: Superforecasting promotes the idea that predictions should be based solely on expert opinion.

A

False

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18
Q

Short Answer: What should leaders do when faced with uncertainty?

A

Consider multiple scenarios and prepare accordingly.

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19
Q

Fill in the blank: Effective leaders often utilize ______ to enhance decision-making.

A

collaboration

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20
Q

Multiple Choice: Which approach is discouraged in superforecasting?

A

Making decisions based on a single data point

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21
Q

What is the impact of cognitive biases on the leader’s dilemma?

A

They can distort judgment and lead to poor decision-making.

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22
Q

True or False: Leaders should avoid seeking dissenting opinions to maintain team cohesion.

A

False

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23
Q

Short Answer: How can leaders ensure their forecasts are realistic?

A

By regularly reviewing and adjusting them based on outcomes.

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24
Q

Fill in the blank: The leader’s dilemma emphasizes the need for ______ in leadership.

A

adaptive thinking

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25
Multiple Choice: Which of the following is a key strategy for overcoming the leader's dilemma?
Encouraging open dialogue among team members
26
What does the term 'forecasting accuracy' refer to?
The degree to which predictions align with actual outcomes.
27
True or False: Superforecasters rely heavily on historical data for their predictions.
True
28
Short Answer: What is one challenge leaders face in making forecasts?
The unpredictability of human behavior.
29
Fill in the blank: ______ is essential for leaders to navigate the complexities of the leader's dilemma.
Analytical rigor
30
Multiple Choice: Which of the following best describes the mindset of superforecasters?
Open-minded and analytical
31
What role does humility play in the leader's dilemma?
It allows leaders to acknowledge their limitations and seek input from others.
32
True or False: Leaders should rely exclusively on quantitative data for decision-making.
False
33
Short Answer: What is the benefit of scenario planning in the context of the leader's dilemma?
It prepares leaders for multiple potential futures.
34
Fill in the blank: The leader's dilemma underscores the importance of ______ in making informed decisions.
evidence-based practices
35
Multiple Choice: Which factor is crucial for improving forecasting skills?
Feedback and reflection
36
What does the concept of 'adaptive leadership' entail?
Adjusting leadership style and approach based on situational demands.
37
True or False: Superforecasters often rely on a single source of information for their predictions.
False
38
Short Answer: Why is it important for leaders to recognize their biases?
To enhance decision-making and forecasting accuracy.
39
Fill in the blank: Leaders should cultivate a culture of ______ to improve forecasting.
learning
40
Multiple Choice: Which of the following is a key aspect of superforecasting?
Continuous updating of predictions
41
What is the significance of team diversity in the leader's dilemma?
It brings various perspectives that enhance decision-making.
42
True or False: Emotional intelligence is irrelevant in the context of the leader's dilemma.
False
43
Short Answer: How can leaders effectively communicate their forecasts?
By being clear, transparent, and open to discussion.
44
Fill in the blank: The leader's dilemma involves navigating between ______ and ______.
certainty, uncertainty
45
Multiple Choice: Which practice can help reduce overconfidence in leadership?
Soliciting external opinions
46
What does 'data-driven leadership' imply?
Making decisions based on data analysis and empirical evidence.
47
True or False: Superforecasters disregard qualitative data in their predictions.
False
48
Short Answer: What is a potential consequence of ignoring the leader's dilemma?
Poor decision-making and negative outcomes.
49
Fill in the blank: Effective forecasting requires a balance of ______ and ______.
analysis, intuition
50
Multiple Choice: Which of the following is NOT a characteristic of effective forecasters?
Rigidity in thinking
51
What is the role of intuition in the leader's dilemma?
It can provide quick insights but should be verified with data.
52
True or False: Leaders should avoid making predictions altogether.
False
53
Short Answer: What is one strategy leaders can use to enhance their decision-making process?
Utilizing decision-making frameworks.
54
Fill in the blank: The leader's dilemma illustrates the conflict between ______ and ______.
certainty, ambiguity
55
Multiple Choice: Which of the following best describes superforecasters?
Analytical and open to new information
56
What is one way leaders can build a culture of forecasting within their teams?
Encouraging regular discussions about predictions and outcomes.
57
True or False: Superforecasters are less likely to change their predictions based on new evidence.
False
58
Short Answer: What is the importance of learning from past forecasts?
To improve future forecasting accuracy.
59
Fill in the blank: Leaders must be willing to ______ their assumptions in light of new evidence.
reassess
60
Multiple Choice: What helps leaders reduce cognitive biases?
Diverse team input and structured decision-making processes
61
What is the value of having a forecasting team?
It enhances collective intelligence and reduces individual biases.
62
True or False: Leaders should avoid uncertainty at all costs.
False
63
Short Answer: How can leaders leverage technology in forecasting?
By using data analytics tools and predictive modeling.
64
Fill in the blank: Understanding the leader's dilemma is crucial for effective ______.
decision-making
65
Multiple Choice: Which aspect is critical for leaders in the context of superforecasting?
Continuous learning and adaptation
66
What does the term 'forecasting mindset' refer to?
An approach that prioritizes evidence, flexibility, and learning in predictions.
67
True or False: Superforecasters often work in isolation.
False
68
Short Answer: Why is it important for leaders to communicate uncertainties?
To manage expectations and prepare for various outcomes.
69
Fill in the blank: A key takeaway from the leader's dilemma is the importance of ______ in leadership.
self-awareness
70
Multiple Choice: Which of the following is NOT a benefit of effective forecasting?
Increased risk of failure
71
What is the impact of clear communication on decision-making?
It ensures all stakeholders understand forecasts and their implications.
72
True or False: Leaders should only focus on short-term forecasts.
False
73
Short Answer: What is one challenge of making long-term forecasts?
Increased uncertainty due to changing variables.
74
Fill in the blank: The leader's dilemma emphasizes the need for ______ in leadership practices.
agility
75
Multiple Choice: Which of the following enhances a leader's ability to forecast?
Encouraging a culture of questioning and exploration

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