Tools in Assessing Climate Change and CC Scenarios Flashcards
(50 cards)
It a plausible representation of future climate that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential impacts of anthropogenic climate change.
Climate Change Scenario
Climate scenarios often make use of _______ _______, by manipulating model outputs and combining them with observed climate data.
climate projections
What are the assumptions and uncertain factors that make the future climate pattern difficult to predict?
- population growth
- the use of carbon fuel as an energy source
- technological development
- economic development
- policies and attitudes toward environment
What are the climate data needed in making climate projections?
- VARIABLES
- SPATIAL SCALES
- TEMPORAL RESOLUTION
- EXTREME EVENTS
The climate variables required are dependent on the ______ ____ _____.
impact models used
What are the most common variables in impact studies?
a. surface observations of air temperature and precipitation
b. solar radiation
c. humidity
d. windspeed
e. soil temperature
f. snow cover
What are the specific variables that certain climate scenario construction procedures require?
a. daily air pressure data
b. mean sea-level pressure
It is useful for climate change impact assessment of coastal zones.
Sea-Level Rise
An index useful for identifying important large-scale climatic variations such as El Niño events.
Southern Oscillation Index
It depends on the objective of modeling and technical factors in the modeling such as the coverage area, quality of source data, and terrain condition
Spatial Scales
What are the required climate information or data in spatial scales?
a. single site (e.g., for assessing crop response to climate),
b. region (e.g., for modeling surface water distribution over a large water catchment),
c. the whole globe (e.g., for modeling changes in geographical life-zone distribution).
Range of Temporal Resolution
a. annual
b. seasonal
c. monthly
d. daily
e. hourly
Some cases, long-term averages may suffice (e.g., for _______ ____ _____) but in some impact studies, daily time series are essential (e.g., for _________ ________ _____ ____).
mapping vegetation distribution, simulating landslide mechanisms about rainfall
Studies of disasters often require knowledge of the probabilistic distribution of extremes in a certain period and area at risk.
Extreme Events
It is usually for estimating the risk of climate related disasters such as storm surges, droughts and forest and land fires.
Extreme Events
It describes some pathways that emissions will take over time.
Emission Scenarios
Based on the inputted emissions, the model will help us determine what will likely happen in the future in terms of?
temperature, sea level rise, and precipitation
As emissions are fed into the ______ ______, the model will help us determine what will likely happen in future
climate models
Two main approaches in emission scenarios as prescribed by IPCC:
➢ Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of 2000
➢ Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), 2014
This is developed by IPCC and can give the range of plausible future climate.
SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios)
They are also sometimes referred to as emission pathways.
storylines
A storyline where there is a very rapid growth, population peaks mid-century; social, cultural and economic convergence among regions; market mechanisms dominate.
A1
A storyline where self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously increasing population; and economic growth on regional scales.
A2
A storyline where clean and efficient technologies; reduction in material use; global solutions to economic growth on regional scales.
B1
