TOPIC 13 - Scenario planning Flashcards
Why is a 10-year time frame commonly used in scenario planning?
A 10-year time frame is long enough to expect significant changes that present opportunities and challenges, yet not so distant that it ventures into the realm of science fiction.
What are scenarios in the context of strategic foresight?
Scenarios are narratives or stories about alternative industry and external environments that explore “What if this is the future external environment?” highlighting potential opportunities or challenges.
How do scenarios differ from predictions in strategic planning?
Scenarios are not predictions or strategies; they are hypotheses that explore various plausible futures and force the acknowledgment of unforeseen opportunities or challenges.
What does the “cone of plausible uncertainty” represent?
The cone of plausible uncertainty represents the range of plausible future outcomes that widen over time, indicating an increase in uncertainty the further out we look.
In scenario planning, how should uncertainties be treated?
Uncertainties should be listed and represented as polarities to explore different potential outcomes.
What does it mean to focus on the “most important” in scenario planning?
Focusing on the most important means identifying and examining the most critical and relevant uncertainties that will influence future outcomes.
What is the official future in scenario planning?
The official future is the expected or most probable future based on current consensus, which may not necessarily be reflected in the scenarios created.
What is the inductive approach in making scenarios?
The inductive approach involves deriving scenarios from a study of patterns and observations, building organically from specific uncertainties.
How does the deductive approach work in scenario planning?
The deductive approach uses logical processes to explore different scenarios based on varying assumptions and often employs models like the fork in the road or matrix frameworks.
How do you create scenarios, by working off of the official future?
Reversing important assumptions helps explore different scenarios by understanding the implications if certain key assumptions do not hold true.
How should polarities be used in the context of scenario planning?
Polarities are used to represent the range of possible outcomes for each critical uncertainty, allowing for the exploration of different scenarios between two extremes.
What is the significance of the phrase “One thing a person cannot do…” by Thomas Schelling in the context of scenario planning?
This phrase highlights the limitations of human foresight, emphasizing the importance of scenario planning in preparing for unexpected or unforeseen events.
Why is it important not to treat scenarios as predictions?
Because scenarios are meant to prepare for various plausible futures, not to accurately predict one specific outcome. Success is achieved if the scenarios capture a range of possibilities that includes the actual future, not if one scenario is exactly right.
What is the significance of focusing on uncertainties in scenario planning?
Focusing on uncertainties helps to identify the key variables that can significantly impact the future and to consider a broad spectrum of potential developments that could influence strategic decisions.
What does it mean to go to the “margins of plausibility” in scenario planning?
It means to consider the full range of scenarios that are possible and plausible without crossing into implausible or highly unlikely futures.
