Topic 5 - GPTs Flashcards
(25 cards)
What is a General‑Purpose Technology (GPT)?
A technology that (1) keeps improving, (2) is widely used, (3) has many different applications, and (4) exhibits strong complementarities with other investments (e.g. steam, electricity, ICT).
List the four classic stages by which a new technology spreads through the economy.
Invention → Innovation → Diffusion → Imitation.
What does “strong complementarities” mean in the context of GPTs?
The payoff from the technology rises sharply once supporting investments (infrastructure, skills, organisation) are in place; most value is unlocked only when these complements are built.
State Solow’s Paradox (Robert Solow, 1987).
“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics.” It highlights the lag between IT adoption and measured productivity gains.
What is Moore’s Law (GordonMoore, 1965)?
The observation that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit roughly doubles every two years, implying exponential improvements in computing power per dollar.
What key finding did WilliamNordhaus report in 2007 about computing costs?
Over two centuries the price‑performance of computing improved exponentially, making modern IT far cheaper per calculation than earlier mechanical devices.
According to Crafts (2002), what share of US per‑capita GDP growth did ICT account for in 1996‑2000?
About 56 percent.
According to Crafts (2002), what share of UK per‑capita GDP growth did steam power contribute in 1830‑1860?
Roughly 24 percent.
Why did steam engines have little aggregate impact before 1800 (Crafts, 2002)?
Steam represented a tiny share of the capital stock, so despite being famous it added almost nothing to total factor productivity.
What did RobertFogel’s ‘social savings’ method (1964) conclude about US railroads?
Even without railroads, alternative canals could have met demand; therefore the aggregate economic impact of railroads was modest.
Summarise Hobsbawm’s (1999) critique of the steam‑centric view of the Industrial Revolution.
He argued that cotton machinery and water power, not steam, were the prime movers of early industrial growth.
Define Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).
An AI system that matches or exceeds human capabilities across the full range of cognitive tasks.
Define Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) as per NickBostrom (2014).
An intellect vastly smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including creativity, wisdom and social skills.
What is RayKurzweil’s ‘Singularity’ prediction (2005)?
Technological progress will accelerate to a point where artificial intelligence triggers runaway growth, fundamentally transforming human civilisation.
Explain the ‘DeusexMachina’ vs endogenous invention debate.
Some theories treat technological change as an external shock, others see invention as emerging from incentives, culture and accumulated knowledge within the economy.
What empirical example does AdamSmith (1776) use to show long‑run productivity growth?
The continuous fall in watch prices from the late 17th century, indicating steady gains in manufacturing efficiency.
Why did computers only start boosting macro‑productivity after 1990?
IT capital rose from just 0.1 % of the capital stock in 1945 to 2.3 % by 2000; only then were complementary organisational changes widespread.
List the four criteria that identify a GPT.
Continuous improvement, pervasive use, multiple applications, strong complementarities.
What is meant by the ‘lagged productivity effect’ of GPTs?
Headline productivity improvements appear decades after the initial invention because complementary investments take time.
Compare the diffusion lags of steam, ICT and (potentially) AI.
Steam: roughly a century before big gains; ICT: a few decades; AI: could be just years as adoption speeds up.
How much did ICT contribute to US per‑capita GDP growth in 1974‑1990 according to Crafts (2002)?
About 30 percent.
Who coined the term ‘social savings’ and what does it measure?
RobertFogel; it estimates the cost advantage of a new transport technology over the next‑best alternative.
In production theory, how is complementarity expressed mathematically?
When the cross‑partial derivative ∂²Y/∂T∂C is positive: the marginal return to one input rises when the other increases.
What economic property could AI create that leads to explosive growth?
Increasing returns to scale—output grows more than proportionally with inputs when AI substitutes for human labour.
