Turnout & Tactical Voting Flashcards
(17 cards)
How many tactical voted in 2017 (by million)
Electoral reform society estimates 6.5 million
What is SwapMyVote
People can make an informal agreement to cast a vote for one anothers prefered party in different constituencies
How many constituencies election results does election expert John Curtice estimate were affected by tactical voting
77
How did Lib Dems tactical vote in 2019 in comparison to 2017
They voted less for Labour in 2019 resulting in Labour loosing several marginal seats
How did tactical voting affect the SNP in 2015
They still won despite opposition parties trying to coordinate behind the same pro-union candidates
Example of closeness of election affecting turnout (Labour 2001 vs Conservative 1992)
In 2001 many felt that the result was a foregone conclusion with another Labour landslide. As a result, turnout was 59%. However in 1992 the closeness of the election saw a 78% turnout
Example of the choice between the two major parties affecting turnout
In 2017 Labour offered a radically different manifesto from the conservatives (69% turnout)
Example of salient issues affecting turnout
Brexit perhaps ensured that turnout in 2017 was the highest since 1997 (69%)
How were polls influential in 1992
Most polls suggested that Labour would win which may have encouraged undecided voters to vote conservative out of fear of a Niel Kinnock government
How were polls influential in 2015
The closeness in polls led conservatives to warn about the possibility of a Labour-SNP coalition which may have helped to cause a small tory majority
Example of polls influencing policy
In 2010 immigration became a salient issue to voters hence successive conservative pledges to limit it
How were polls not influential in 2017 election and 2016 referendum
Most polls predicted a comfortable conservative win and didn’t pick up on the “youthquake” = not always representative?
2016 referendum poll suggested that remain would win
Which countries ban polls
France and Canada
where has the winners of 1979, 1997, and 2019 all won regionally
the west midlands
how much has conservative vote dropped in the red wall northwest (local elections)
-83 in the northwest
how much has the conservative vote dropped in the east (local elections)
-185
which heartland conservative region did the conservative vote drop the most
lost -380 in the south east
