Unit 3: AOS 1 - Land Cover Change Flashcards by Annia Flynn-Flessner

Conditions in HCO, LGM and Current Day

LGM (between 21 000 and 18 000 years ago)
- Approximately 6 degrees colder than today
- Sea level was around 125m lower than today - water held in ice sheets and the thermal contraction of water
- Arid and colder
- Australian rainfall decreased - 60% of today’s (NASA)
HCO (8 000 years ago)
- Warmer and wetter
- Rainfall 142% of today’s (NASA)
- Ice melted, retreated and thermal expansion → sea level rose

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Land Cover in HCO, LGM and Current Day

LGM
- ~30% earth was covered in ice
  - Extensive ice cover expanding over the Northern Hemisphere - northern Europe and Asia and much of North America - ↓ forest
  - The amount of ice in the Northern Hemisphere was double that of the Southern Hemisphere (except Antarctica) due to ↑ land mass in Northern Hemisphere
  - ↑ ice cover in central Europe, central Africa and on the west coast of South America (i.e. patagonian ice sheet)
  - ↑ extreme deserts
- Forests and woodlands contained to pockets near equator and did not extend as high in terms of elevation
  - Forests of South America (Amazon) and equatorial Africa ↓ due to drier conditions
  - North America dominated by forest in the south
- Biomes including grasslands, desert and tundra were more widely distributed than today
HCO
- Extreme deserts contracted to central Asia, south-west Africa and the west coast of South America
- Ice retreated to high latitude and high altitude regions - similar to present day
- 47% of land mass was forest
  - Forest expanded into the northern hemisphere and spread to all continents except Antarctica
Present
- ↑ extreme desert in North Africa and central Asia
- Forests similarly distributed to HCO except human activity reducing forest cover

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Definition of Ice Sheet and Glacier

Glaciers
- In motion
- Contained by terrain (eg. frozen river)
Ice Sheets
- Masses of ice at least 50 000km2
- High latitude above 60 degrees
- Not confined

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Global Melting Ice sheets and Glaciers

Since 1901 Greenland and Antarctic shed 49,000Gt of ice into the ocean (NASA)
Ice sheets and glaciers hold 11% of world’s freshwater
- 53 mill reliant on meltwater in Ecuador and Bolivia
70m sea level rise if cryosphere melted

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Distribution of Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Ice sheets and glaciers cover 10% of the world’s surface
Ice predominantly in northern hemisphere as the is less land for ice to form in southern hemisphere
Ice sheets are contained to high latitude regions above 60 degrees.
- For example
  - The Greenland ice sheet ~1.7 million square km
  - The Antarctic ice sheet ~ 14 million square km
Glaciers are located in either high altitude or high latitude regions.
- For example
  - The glaciers in the Andes in South America and Mt Kilimanjaro in Africa - low latitudes and high altitude regions.
  - Glaciers in Greenland - high latitudes but low altitudes

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Natural processes

Surface melting - ↑ surface melt → ↓albedo
- Sea water 0.2 albedo i.e. reflects 20%
- Ice 0.8 albedo i.e. reflects 80%
Moulins - funnel water to base of glacier acts like a lubricant speeding up glacial movement
Basal melting - sea ice shelves melting - warmer oceans melt underside of shelves
- This can cause calving - where ice brakes off the ice sheet into ocean
Dark ice - caused by crysonites (photosynthetic bacteria, soot and dust) - ↓albedo
The Milankovitch Cycle
- Depending where we are will determine amount of sunlight
- Tilt, eccentricity (shape of orbit) and precession (wobble)
Ocean circulation changes - changes ocean currents impact exchange of heat between ocean and atmosphere - eg. El nino and La nina
Volcanic activity - reflective dust → lowers temp - gases → warmer temps
Plate tectonics - as latitude changes due to land mass movement → climate change - occurs over millions of years

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Human processes

GHGe
- 1.58 degree ↑ land temp and 0.88 degree ↑ ocean temp (IPCC, 2021)
  - Average 1.1 degree ↑ - 1 degree due to human processes
- Sea levels have risen by 0.2m since 1800
  - 1.9mm/year between 1971 and 2006
  - 13.7mm/year between 2006 and 2018
CO2 emissions
- 67% of global temp ↑ (IPCC, 2021)
- Safe = 350 ppm - current= 410 ppm
- 149% pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2021)
Methane emissions -
- 16% of global temp ↑ (IPCC, 2021)
- 86 times greater impact than CO2 (IPCC, 2021)
- 260% - pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2021)
Emissions released primarily from burning fossil fuels and deforestation
Alteration of landscape - clearing forests for cities - change in albedo thus global temperatures
Direct Addition of Heat into the Atmosphere - burning of fossil fuels, heating and cooling of residences and workplaces

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Overview

Pop - 56 000
- 80% inuit
Poverty - 16.2%
83 in every 100 000 commit suicide - highest rate in the world
Greenland ice sheet makes up 1.2% of global land cover
Ice sheet covers 80% of Greenland - up to 4km thick
Autonomous danish dependent territory

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Impacts

Sea levels have risen by 0.2m since 1800
Caused predominantly by Climate Change
- Land temp increase 1.58 degrees since 1880
- Ocean temp increased by 0.88 degrees
  - 50% thermal expansion
  - 42% melting ice
In the last 32 years there has been a 1.7 degree rise in temperature
166Gt lost in 2021
Ice is thinning
Ice is forming two months later and melting one month earlier than it should
Migration south
25th year in a row that Greenland has lost more ice than it’s gained
The average albedo of Greenland’s ice declined by 5% between 2000 and 2015
6m sea level rise if ice sheet melted
Permafrost melt - methane emissions
Illulissat/ Jakobshavn Isbrae glacier
- 110,000 km2 volume
- Over 65 km long
- Worlds fastest retreat
  - 1985 traveling at 7kms per year
  - 2006 traveling at 14kms per year
  - Retreated over 40kms since 1851
  - Velocity has doubled

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Local Response: Agriculture

Overview

What
- Rise in Agriculture due to increased fertile land in the south caused by ice retreat
- Wider range of crops
Where sustainable agriculture
- 68% is near Narsaq
- 17% is near Nanortalik
- 13% is near Qaqortoq

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Location Response: Agriculture

SWOT

Strengths
- Increase crop variety - edible crops
- Boost economy - less reliant on Denmark
- Carbon sepuation
- Narsaq
  - 31 sheep farms
- Qaqortoq
  - Strawberries and cucumbers
Weaknesses
- Qaqortoq, Narsaq and Nanortalik summers have been warmer but also much drier - more expecnsive due to irrigation
- Costs more to run than profit made
- Very separated - hard to trade supplies and support one another
Opportunities
- With the right animal manure, seaweed and even glacial rocks farms can greatly improve the quality and quantity of their crops
- Narsarsuaq produces ~600 pounds of honey to sell each year, the bees are resilient to the hot summers and the cold winters
Threats
- Pests and insect invasion - due to changing temperatures
- In Narsaq, cabbage root fly, a pest, has been introduced to the environment and is attacking crops like potatoes and turnips
Evaluation
- Effective in short term

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Local Response: Shift from hunting to fishing

Overview

Hunting requires boat, snowmobile or dog sleigh - ice thinning prevents this
Climate change effects distribution of the hunted species
- Caribou affected by change is temp and precipitation - 56% decline
- Change in sea temp and ice coverage
  - Decrease in shrimp numbers
  - Increase in cod
2016 - more than 90% of exports were fish
2018 - 50% of GDP from fish exports
As a result people are starting to fish more than hunt
- 20% workforce are employed by fisheries
  - Greenland’s fish exports have increased between 2012 and 2017 at an annualised rate of 4.6%.
- 10% of pop involved in hunting

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Location Response: Shift from hunting to fishing

SWOT

Strengths
- Employment important due to poverty
- Eg. Niaqornat
  - Pop 59
  - Heavily reliant on fishing
  - Fishery closed briefly - if not reopened people would have had to leave
- Eg. Ilulissat Icefjord
  - Increase in cod number and size
  - Improved diet and income for local community
  - Decline in icebergs surrounding entrance allows for quicker and easier access to marine life in fjord
Weaknesses
- Decline in traditional hunting practises
- Eg. Inughuit
  - Northernmost tip of Greenland
  - Pop - 800 across 4 settlement makes up the Thule region
  - Woman from a settlement
    - 15 years ago sea ice 3km think
    - Now hunters falling through ice
    - Decline/ disappearance of dogsled hunting
      - Increase depression and suicide rates
Opportunities
- Fisheries provide increase in jobs and income for those that can no longer hunt
Threats
- Inughuit forced to migrate south
  - Loss of culture as they will assimilate to broader Inuit culture
  - Recently 1 of 4 settlements in Thule was closed
Evaluation - whether it’s effective in mitigating impacts of climate change
- Not effective in adapting to climate change
- Jobs in fishing - should be hunting using traditional methods
- Assimilation - loss of culture - detrimental to well being of Inuit people

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - National Response: Last Chance Tourism

Overview

Tourism contributes $27 USD million to Greenland’s economy
2000 - 34 000 overnight guests - 2019 - 105 000
Government promoting last chance tourism
- Visit Greenland Website - details on destinations - how/ where to travel
2019 - 725 people were employed in the tourism industry

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - National Response: Last Chance Tourism

SWOT

Strengths
- $27 USD
  - Rely less on mining
  - Respond to impacts of melting ice sheets and glaciers
- In adventure tourism - the movement of people from one place to another outside their comfort zone for exploration
  - 65% of the revenue goes to local communities
- Makes people aware of the impact of Climate Change
- Nuuk recently achieved a Bronze Benchmarking which means they have completed the first three steps of a six-step process towards becoming a sustainable destination
Weaknesses
- Fossil fuel intensive air travel - on a global scale aviation contributes 2.1% of the global emissions and an estimated 4.9% to global warming
- Between 2016 and 2018 tourists arriving by air increased by 3.3% in Greenland
- Decline in traditional tourism
  - Dog sledding
Opportunities
- Construct larger airports in Ilulissat and Nuuk
- Education of people
- Stability to economy who currently relies on exports causing fluctuation in inflation and employment
Threats
- Cultural ceremonies put on display
- Loss of Inuit culture due to migration away from home in search for jobs
Evaluation - whether it mitigates climate change impacts
- Boosts economy
- Provides employment
- Overall not effective or sustainable in mitigating the effects of climate change and melting ice sheets and glaciers
  - Air travel

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Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Global Response: Conference of Parties #26 (COP - 26) Climate Summit

Overview

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Includes 197 Nations - agreed to new environmental pact called United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992
Occur every 5 years
COP-26 in Glasgow

Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Global Response: Conference of Parties #26 (COP - 26) Climate Summit

Aims

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Secure global net zero by mid-century
Keep 1.5℃ global warming within reach
Adapt to protect communities and natural habitats
Mobilise finance (secure funds)
Complete negotiations on the Paris Agreement (2016) rule book

Melting Ice Sheets and Glaciers

Case Study: Greenland - Global Response: Conference of Parties #26 (COP - 26) Climate Summit

SWOT

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Strengths
- Global stock take
  - National Determined Contributions (NDC’s) are assessed
  - Countries provide one each year - reviewed every 5 years
- Decisions made in a Draft are legally binding to to the Paris Agreement (2016)
- Fossil fuels were mentioned for the first time
- Phase-out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies
- Prior to COP26 - global temp rise 3 degrees - now 2.4 degrees - by 2100
- 137 countries committed to halt deforestation and begin restoration by 2030
- 103 countries and 15 major emitters signed Global Methane Pledge which limits methane emissions by 30% by 2030
Weaknesses
- Agreed to phase down fossil fuels instead of phase out
- Countries who haven’t met targets are allowed to purchase emission reduction from Nations who have exceeded their targets - added to Paris Rulebook
- Consensus required - 197 countries - lowest common denominator
- No way to enforce targets
- IPCC reports (which advise leaders) only released every 6-7 years
- 503 fossil fuel delegates - more than any other country
- China’s NDC set net zero emissions target by 2060 - they are the biggest contributor
- No plan to reduce aviation emissions
  - Contributes 2.1% of the global emissions and an estimated 4.9% to global warming
- Paris Agreement provision of “net zero in the second half of this century” - gives countries too much leeway - eg. India net zero by 2070
Opportunities
- 2023 - US$100 billion to go to developing nations per year
  - There are calls for this to double
- Glasgow Climate pact calling on countries to present stronger NDC’s in 2023 instead of 2025
Threats
- Emission offsetting can have negative impacts
  - Threatens indigenous and rural people and ecosystems by taking their land for tree plantations
  - Next phase of climate denialism
- Countries may interpret draft form COP26 differently
- 2.4 degree temp rise too high - safe increase at 1.5 degrees
- Many underprivileged countries might leave if they continue to be ignored
Evaluation of whether the melting of Greenland’s ice will be slowed
- Step in right direction - prior to COP26 - global temp rise 3 degrees - now 2.4 degrees
  - still not 1.5 degree aim
- Not on targets set by climate scientists - not sustainable long term if we remain on the current trajectory
  - Eg. NASA reported that an increase in temp by 2 degrees would result in 0.2 m sea level rise caused by thermal expansion and melting ice hence Greenland ice sheets will continue to melt

Deforestation

Definitions

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Forest
- “O.5 or more hectares covered by trees higher than 5m with a canopy cover of more than 10% or by trees able to achieve this. Does not include agricultural and urban land areas.” - (FAO)
Deforestation
- “The conversion of forest to another land use or the long-term reduction of tree canopy cover below the 10% threshold.” - (FAO)

Deforestation

Global Forest Cover Distribution

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4 billion hectares of forest
31% of world’s total land area is forest
Forests are not evenly distributed
75% of forests in high to middle income countries
Distribution by regions
- 45% in tropics
- 27% in boreal countries
- 16% in temperate countries
- 11% in subtropical countries
Top 5 countries with most forest (make up 53.8% of all forests)
- 1. Russia - 20%
- 1. Brazil - 12%
- 1. Canada - 9%
- 1. U.S.A - 8%
- 1. China - 5%
6 countries have no forest cover - eg. Greenland
Types of forest
- 34% primary (undisturbed)
- 59% secondary (recently disturbed by human activity)
- 7% planted

Deforestation

Global Deforestation

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The area of primary forest worldwide has decreased by over 80 million hectares since 1990 (FAO, 2020)
12.2m hectares of tree cover was lost in the tropics in 2020 (WRI, 2021)
Forest loss and damage is the cause of around 10% of global warming (WWF, 2022)
20 percent of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions come from the clearing of tropical forests
However, forests have still increased over the last 30 years

Deforestation

Case Study: PNG - Overview

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Population - 8.9 million (World Bank, 2020)
Poverty - 85.7% according to multidimensional poverty measure (World Bank, 2020)
- 2.6% unemployed
33.6 Mill hectares (Mha) of forest (FAO, 2015)
- PNG’s forest covers 80% of the country’s land area - 60% of the forest are undisturbed (UNFCCC, 2017)
3rd largest rainforest in the world
- Most biodiverse
- 5-7% of all known animal species live in PNG
The indigenous people own the land
- 800 language groups
1.57Mha of tree cover lost between 2000 and 2020 equivalent to;
- 3.7% decrease in tree cover
- 1.15 giga tonns (Gt) of CO₂ emissions
2021 lost 73.3 thousand hectares of natural forest = 55.0 mega tons of CO₂ emissions (2021, Global Forest Watch)
~70% logging illegal
- SABL’s - 11% of PNG’s land cover - made illegal in 2016 but still exist
5 times as much GHGe released from forest degradation than from deforestation
98.1% of forest degradation from commercial logging
55% of deforestation for family agriculture
- 75% if pop - subsistance agriculture
26% of deforestation from commercial agriculture

Deforestation

Case Study: PNG - Impacts of Deforestation

Social

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Negative
- Diseases such as malaria and cholera spread - eg. stagnant/polluted waters
- Tribes coming together could result in loss of culture
- Trees are shelter and protection for animals and people
- Strong spiritual connection to trees - many people believe spirits inhabit forests
- Loss of ecological services which include;
  - Water
  - Medicine
  - Food
  - Timber
  - Fibre
  - Landslide protection
  - Prevent soil erosion
- Treatment of women by logging employees
Positive
- Logging industry could provide locals with jobs
  - Eg. walkabout sawmills - gives locals transportable sawmills - provides income

Deforestation

Case Study: PNG - Impacts of Deforestation

Economic

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Negative
- Increase of jobs but low pay → unemployment low but poverty high
- 70% of logging occurring illegally the PNG → Government loses tax income
- Locals having to pay for ecosystem services - eg food and medicine as they no longer exist in environment and are only available as commercial products
Positive

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Impacts of Deforestation Environment

* **Negative** * Loss of biodiversity - destruction of habitat is * New roads - fragmentation - droughts and fires * Less CO2 absorption * Burning releases CO2 into the atmosphere * Reduces the critical water cycling * ↑ flooding → soil erosion

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Local Response: Walkabout Sawmills Overview

* Impacts its responding to - Poverty within the indigenous communities of PNG * Small scale, portable timber milling machine

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Local Response: Walkabout Sawmills Aims

* To prevent commercial logging in rainforests by giving indigenous people an alternative source of income

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Local Response: Walkabout Sawmills SWOT

* **Strengths** * Easy to operate * Affordable * Money goes directly to locals * Quicker/better than only chainsaws * Roads not needed - fragmentation prevented - roads ↑stagnant waters thus malaria * For every tree felled 3 saplings are planted * Keep some wood in community (houses etc.) * $1 mill acres of forest protected * More money generated than from commercial logging * $450/m3 vs. $3/m3 - 20 times as much * Training and education program * Restoration (tree plantation) * Maintenance * Business management * Locals maintain control of what happens on their land * Minimal disruption to life and society structure * Selective logging rather than clearfelling - less impact on waterways + biodiversity * **Weaknesses** * Maintenance when they break down (2012 AU found this not to be a large problem) * Enables logging (but much more sustainable) * Limited opportunities for women - uneven income/power distribution * No permits required - can log up to 500m3 - not monitored * Due to weight of mills becoming stationary rather than mobile as intended → logging of one area (especially along tracks) * Relies on admin + management skills of locals, which are undeveloped * 2012 AU Gov. report found this was the biggest weakness * **Opportunities** * Training and education program (see above) * More sawmills to be distributed * Lighter materials for sawmills → more mobile * **Threats** * Maintenance issues increasing * Competition from logging companies * Maintaining a market of buyers * Local disputes over resource ownership + management * **Evaluation** * Effective in preventing commercial logging * Lowers poverty by providing education, income and employment * Not bad for forest as saplings planted and roads not required

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - National Response: National Forest Inventory (NFI) Overview

* National Forest Inventory (NFI) * Gathers accurate information on flora and fauna, carbon stocks, estimated GHGe from deforestation and forest degradation * Funded by EU and UN-REDD+ * Uses Open Foris Collect Software - developed in Rome

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - National Response: National Forest Inventory (NFI) Aims

* To support the PNG Forest Authority * To implement a continuous and multipurpose NFI which is a key component of a National Forest Monitoring System that PNG is required to establish to participate in the UNFCCC REDD+. Scheme * For inhabitants to utilise what's in their country

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - National Response: National Forest Inventory (NFI) SWOT

* **Strength** * Created Climate Change and Forest Monitoring Web-Portal * Make eligible for REDD * Educates and provides jobs for locals * 32 officers trained in flora and fauna management * 10 officers can identify 80% of plant species * 20 officers across PNG can recognize 80% of tree species * First phase of assessment using remote sensing and second phase of field inventory based on pilot clusters - both completed * 2014 - 2019 * Monitoring methods include; * Point counts * Mckinnon lists * Songmeter boxes * Multipurpose NFI will collect * Timber volume * Ono-timber forest products * Carbon stock * Soil characteristics * Biodiversity (flora and fauna) * Socio-economic aspects of PNG forests * Created Timber Legality Verification System * Acquire consent from landowners * **Weaknesses** * Due to poverty rates - information not accessible to indigenous people * Disturbs sacred forest that hold strong spiritual connection in indigenous culture * Susceptible to error - especially estimated carbon stocks * **Opportunities** * Make eligible for ↑ REDD+ payments thus preventing deforestation * Prevent illegal logging due to constant monitoring * **Threats** * **Evaluation** * Effective as has made PNG eligible for REDD+

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Global Response: REDD+ Overview

* Responding to - deforestation on a global scale causing release of carbon emissions which in turn contribute to climate change * REDD+ - Reducing Emissions from Forest Degradation and Deforestation * Voluntary approach to mitigate climate change developed by UNFCCC * Gives monetary value to carbon stocks making forests more valuable standing than as timber * Established in 2008

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Global Response: REDD+ Aims

* To reduce CO2 emissions by slowing or halting deforestation and increasing removal of GHGe by conserving and managing forests

Deforestation Case Study: PNG - Global Response: REDD+ SWOT

* **Strengths** * Incentives to not cut down trees by giving them monetary value * ↓ CO2 into atmosphere = ↓ Global temp changes * ↓ poverty by paying landowners to preserve their forests * Protects the cultural and spiritual heritage of forests * Prevents impacts of deforestation * ↑ flooding * Soil erosion * ↑ spread of diseases such as malaria and cholera * Destruction to biodiversity * Removal of ecosystem services * **Weaknesses** * PALM * Permanence - trees will die eventually * Additionality - paying for keeping forests standing that were never going to be logged * Leakage - moving around to deforest non-REDD regions * Measurement - expensive, difficult, time consuming + prone to large errors * Slow to gain momentum and coverage (10 years for first carbon credit to be sold) * Doesn’t stop or ↓ emissions in high polluting regions * “Carbon cowboys” - people exploiting local communities through carbon credit and trading schemes similar to commercial logging companies * **Opportunities** * More participation - less leakage * Stricter legislation - less exploitation of indegenous peoples by “carbon cowboys” * **Threats** * Carbon credits could become another ‘resource curse’ like oil, diamond or gold * Become another carbon offset mechanism that doesn’t actually mitigate climate change * **Evaluation** - of aims * Hasn't lowered GHG_eas MEDC's still pollute

ICESAT - 2

* Remote Sensing * NASA owned satellite (US) * Currently in orbit * Launched in California 15 September 2018 * Measures topography of earth and thus can determine ice sheet and glacier melt * Data stored on board - includes measurements from 2003 and 2019 which are compared to determine change in ice and glacier mass * **Function** - carries instrument - Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) * 1 laser split into 6 beams * 10 000 pulses per second * Each pulse ~ 20 trillion photons - only ~ 12 trillion reach earth and return to satellite * Measures time taken for lasers to return to satellite which provides distance hence topography * **Orbit** - polar (orbits around the poles) * **Data found** - 2021 * Surveyed 34 outlet glaciers * 3 retreated more than 3.5 km/year and only one had no change in thickness * Measures ice sheet thickness via seasonal comparison

Unit 3: AOS 1 - Land Cover Change Flashcards

(35 cards)